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The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 OS Thread | 415m OS, 751m WW

By iceroll, in International Box Office

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Fullbuster Global Phenomenon

Fullbuster

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I don't think that's a very good sentiment to have, seeing as Japan is one of the 5 biggest markets in the world (I think it is 3 behind Domestic and China). It just so happens that the Japanese numbers don't really support one particular series that the members of this board seem to like. Doesn't mean Japan as a market isn't important though..

 

I said it's not SO important, not it's NOT important. There is quite a difference :lol:

Don't be mistaken, I love Japan but the market is not as importnat as it was before...Of course it can be very profitable sometimes but a movie doesn't need it anymore to be a successful movie OS because many new markets emerged like China or Latin America.

Twilight was a failure in Japan and still it was big OS, for example, and its huge success in Latin America allowed it to be successful despite its poor numbers in Asia as a whole.

 

So The Hunger Games will be huge, even without Japan, and that's just true.

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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

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1B WW is impossible. dollar has appreciated more than 10% since CF. it would be lucky to make more than CF. Its not popular in china which is the fastest growing market. Asia is also mostly meh. Russian ruble has collapsed(lost 50% of value). But latin america should show some improvement though both peso and real has depreciated since last year. I am expecting 425M OS gross and around 800M WW for MJ1. MJ2 will need lot weaker dollar to hit 1B WW.

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Ajde Indie Sensation

Ajde

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1B WW is impossible. dollar has appreciated more than 10% since CF. it would be lucky to make more than CF. Its not popular in china which is the fastest growing market. Asia is also mostly meh. Russian ruble has collapsed(lost 50% of value). But latin america should show some improvement though both peso and real has depreciated since last year. I am expecting 425M OS gross and around 800M WW for MJ1. MJ2 will need lot weaker dollar to hit 1B WW.

Cool, but still everything you wrote suggest it's rather unlikely than impossible.

What impossible is to predict its final gross, so no, bye.

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peludo Summer Tentpole

peludo

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1B WW is impossible. dollar has appreciated more than 10% since CF. it would be lucky to make more than CF. Its not popular in china which is the fastest growing market. Asia is also mostly meh. Russian ruble has collapsed(lost 50% of value). But latin america should show some improvement though both peso and real has depreciated since last year. I am expecting 425M OS gross and around 800M WW for MJ1. MJ2 will need lot weaker dollar to hit 1B WW.

Quite agree. However, in spite of the dollar strength, I still think it can increase a bit relative to CF. Maybe to 475.

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Quigley Box Office Gold

Quigley

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Posted (edited)

I said it's not SO important, not it's NOT important. There is quite a difference.

Don't be mistaken, I love Japan but the market is not as importnat as it was before...Of course it can be very profitable sometimes but a movie doesn't need it anymore to be a successful movie OS because many new markets emerged like China or Latin America.

Twilight was a failure in Japan and still it was big OS, for example, and its huge success in Latin America allowed it to be successful despite its poor numbers in Asia as a whole.

 

So The Hunger Games will be huge, even without Japan, and that's just true.

 

It is true that if you take the highest 50 films of all time overseas, all those that earned less than $50M in Japan have been released from 2009 and onwards.

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/world/?pagenum=1&sort=osgross&order=DESC&p=.htm

 

There are 18 films in the Top 50 released before 2009. All of them have earned more than $50M in Japan (and most are above $100M).

 

So you can argue that Japan used to be more significant than it is now.

 

I'd also like to point out that there are no DIsney films in the top 50 that have earned less than $50M in Japan (except Marvel's The Avengers and Iron Man 3, which don't even have the Disney logo - they were marketed as Paramount/Marvel films), but every other major studio (excluding Lionsgate) has at least two films in the Top 50 that earned (a lot) less than $50M in Japan.

 

UPDATE: However, Catching Fire isn't in the Top 50 (it peaked at #57 and is curently at #67 - if you count that Guardians crossed $440M as per ScreenDaily), so it's difficult to describe its OS gross as huge. Solid, yes. But not huge.

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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

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Quite agree. However, in spite of the dollar strength, I still think it can increase a bit relative to CF. Maybe to 475.

 

That would require adjusted increase of around 30% or more. Seems difficult without china making a difference and Russian currency being so bad,its impossible to avoid a drop. Only comparable movie is twilight. I am sure if MJ1 will not hit BD2 number in Brazil. CF strength was in traditionally developed markets and movies dont dramatically grow there in an year(mostly they plateau out).

 

if MJ1 hits 475m in this environment it would be one of the most impressive BO run. Very rarely you see penaltimate movie increasing so much in BO. Historically that is reserved for finale.

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Fullbuster Global Phenomenon

Fullbuster

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That would require adjusted increase of around 30% or more. Seems difficult without china making a difference and Russian currency being so bad,its impossible to avoid a drop. Only comparable movie is twilight. I am sure if MJ1 will not hit BD2 number in Brazil. CF strength was in traditionally developed markets and movies dont dramatically grow there in an year(mostly they plateau out).

 

if MJ1 hits 475m in this environment it would be one of the most impressive BO run. Very rarely you see penaltimate movie increasing so much in BO. Historically that is reserved for finale.

 

That's quite depressing.

But the dollar is just a reflect of the global economy : the US economy is strong, Europe is stagnating, China is slowing quite sharply and most of Latin America as well, Russia is near a financial crisis....Now let's hope it will impress us.

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Mockingjay Raphael Global Phenomenon

Mockingjay Raphael

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BOM is expecting 500M OS...

'The first installment earned $283 million overseas, or just 41 percent of its worldwide total. The sequel improved substantially on that, gaining 55 percent to around $440 million. While it's unreasonable to expect another giant leap like that, it still seems like a safe bet that Mockingjay winds up with at least $500 million overseas.'

http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3963&p=.htm

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