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Top 10 of 2015 predictions

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Avatree Global Phenomenon

Avatree

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Posted

Star Wars is guaranteed at least $400 million, that's just the floor. Although Avengers has more of a guaranteed $550+, it also doesn't have a huge amount of room for growth above that, whereas for Star Wars, the sky's the limit. It has an actual shot at slaying Avatar both domestically and globally - Star Wars is the biggest brand in moviemaking, no question of it. Everyone knows about Star Wars and everyone will watch it.

Regardless of any prequel hate that might be lingering, right now - at least where I live - it is very clear that Episode 7 is the most hyped movie for the future. It has made regular news headlines, everyone knows about it. Which can't be said for many other films.

 

My predictions:

#1 - Star Wars: Episode VII - $700 million

#2 - Avengers 2 - $580 million

#3 - The Hunger Games 4 - $450 million

#4 - Inside Out - $280 million

#5 - Fast and Furious 7 - $260 million

#6 - Minions - $245 million

#7 - The Good Dinosaur - $240 million

#8 - Mission: Impossible 5 - $235 million

#9 - Fifty Shades of Grey - $220 million

#10 - Tomorrowland - $215 million

 

Star Wars - explained above

 

Avengers - while the individual movies will continue to grow, I'm not sure that the team-up films will see much growth, if any at all. $580 is virtually identical to the first one's gross. It could do more, though it'd be surprising to significantly increase upon such a large amount.

 

Hunger Games - I don't know why everyone is throwing huge numbers at Mockingjay Part 2. Given that there was no growth from the first movie to the second, I don't imagine there will be much of an increase by the time the final film lands. While it's true that more people will turn out for the finale, the general audience hasn't had much time to get attached to this series given that it's only 4 films and they're all releasing within 3 and a half years of each other. So it won't see as much as a boost as Deathly Hallows part 2.

 

Inside Out - Pixar hasn't had a particularly strong past few years, but this is something original and it's directed by the man who helmed Up and Monsters Inc. If audiences connect it could bring Pixar back to where they were a few years ago.

 

Fast 7 - this franchise has been played out now that franchise fatigue should be about to kick in. It does have Paul Walker's death going for it; it won't have a Heath Ledger-like effect but it will be similar. It's surprising how aware the public still is about his death even now, despite it being old news. It will have an effect but it'll have been 1.5 years since the death. It wouldn't surprise me if this actually grossed less than Fast 6 domestically, but I don't think that'll happen quite yet. Fast 8 will though.

 

Minions - I can't believe how generous people are being towards this. It's a spin-off and it's competing in one of the most crowded summer ever. While animated competition only comes in the form of Inside Out (which in itself is something), there are plenty of family-orientated films releasing around that time. And it's a spin-off - it won't even get close to DM2's gross.

 

The Good Dinosaur - kids love animal animated adventures, so this will probably be big. That being said, it has had some production issues that could hold it back from being great.

 

MI5 - I doubt this will improve much on MI4. That itself was a big step up from MI3 in terms of box office gross, so it's unlikely to do much better. Franchise fatigue may not have as big an effect as it might usually have though, thanks to the lengthy gaps between the films (4, 6, 5, 4 years).

 

Fifty Shades - given the number of us women who loved this book, I can only imagine that the film will break out just as much as the book did. There's a lot of excitement for the film and there's a good chance it turns into an event film, given the controversy surrounding it.

 

Tomorrowland - this one's a bit of a potshot, but I think this film will do really well. It's almost guaranteed to be well-received - the cast and director have strong histories, and it may stand out in a summer full of sequels.

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Jessie Global Phenomenon

Jessie

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Star wars has no chance of beating Avatar worldwide, no chance. It was never THAT big in overseas markets, Potter is bigger globally than Star Wars so no way in hell it manages to come close to 2b overseas.Domestically I agree, it has a better chance to beat Avatar than TA 2 because the sky is the limit in the US, but it won't happen.

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peludo Summer Tentpole

peludo

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Star wars has no chance of beating Avatar worldwide, no chance. It was never THAT big in overseas markets, Potter is bigger globally than Star Wars so no way in hell it manages to come close to 2b overseas.Domestically I agree, it has a better chance to beat Avatar than TA 2 because the sky is the limit in the US, but it won't happen.

Indeed. Star Wars is still the biggest brand in US, but not OS. In 2002, Clones did 338 OS, when Harry Potter or LOTR were making 580-620. In 2005, Revenge of the Sith did 468, a closer number to Chronicles of Narnia (453) than to Potter (607). Star Wars still has to show its power OS. Probably with inflation, expanding markets and 3D the usual 350-450 numbers can grow to 800, but to talk about Avatar numbers is not even an option. In fact, TA2 will be bigger OS than Star Wars.

 

Domestically is another story. The battle between SW7 and TA2 will be great. The biggest in one single year ever, over TA vs TDKR.

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tommycruise Box Office Gold

tommycruise

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Star Wars is guaranteed at least $400 million, that's just the floor. Although Avengers has more of a guaranteed $550+, it also doesn't have a huge amount of room for growth above that, whereas for Star Wars, the sky's the limit. It has an actual shot at slaying Avatar both domestically and globally - Star Wars is the biggest brand in moviemaking, no question of it. Everyone knows about Star Wars and everyone will watch it.Regardless of any prequel hate that might be lingering, right now - at least where I live - it is very clear that Episode 7 is the most hyped movie for the future. It has made regular news headlines, everyone knows about it. Which can't be said for many other films. My predictions:#1 - Star Wars: Episode VII - $700 million#2 - Avengers 2 - $580 million#3 - The Hunger Games 4 - $450 million#4 - Inside Out - $280 million#5 - Fast and Furious 7 - $260 million#6 - Minions - $245 million#7 - The Good Dinosaur - $240 million#8 - Mission: Impossible 5 - $235 million#9 - Fifty Shades of Grey - $220 million#10 - Tomorrowland - $215 million Star Wars - explained above Avengers - while the individual movies will continue to grow, I'm not sure that the team-up films will see much growth, if any at all. $580 is virtually identical to the first one's gross. It could do more, though it'd be surprising to significantly increase upon such a large amount. Hunger Games - I don't know why everyone is throwing huge numbers at Mockingjay Part 2. Given that there was no growth from the first movie to the second, I don't imagine there will be much of an increase by the time the final film lands. While it's true that more people will turn out for the finale, the general audience hasn't had much time to get attached to this series given that it's only 4 films and they're all releasing within 3 and a half years of each other. So it won't see as much as a boost as Deathly Hallows part 2. Inside Out - Pixar hasn't had a particularly strong past few years, but this is something original and it's directed by the man who helmed Up and Monsters Inc. If audiences connect it could bring Pixar back to where they were a few years ago. Fast 7 - this franchise has been played out now that franchise fatigue should be about to kick in. It does have Paul Walker's death going for it; it won't have a Heath Ledger-like effect but it will be similar. It's surprising how aware the public still is about his death even now, despite it being old news. It will have an effect but it'll have been 1.5 years since the death. It wouldn't surprise me if this actually grossed less than Fast 6 domestically, but I don't think that'll happen quite yet. Fast 8 will though. Minions - I can't believe how generous people are being towards this. It's a spin-off and it's competing in one of the most crowded summer ever. While animated competition only comes in the form of Inside Out (which in itself is something), there are plenty of family-orientated films releasing around that time. And it's a spin-off - it won't even get close to DM2's gross. The Good Dinosaur - kids love animal animated adventures, so this will probably be big. That being said, it has had some production issues that could hold it back from being great. MI5 - I doubt this will improve much on MI4. That itself was a big step up from MI3 in terms of box office gross, so it's unlikely to do much better. Franchise fatigue may not have as big an effect as it might usually have though, thanks to the lengthy gaps between the films (4, 6, 5, 4 years). Fifty Shades - given the number of us women who loved this book, I can only imagine that the film will break out just as much as the book did. There's a lot of excitement for the film and there's a good chance it turns into an event film, given the controversy surrounding it. Tomorrowland - this one's a bit of a potshot, but I think this film will do really well. It's almost guaranteed to be well-received - the cast and director have strong histories, and it may stand out in a summer full of sequels.

No jurassic world?
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Avatree Global Phenomenon

Avatree

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No jurassic world?

Knew I was missing a film! Oops >.<

JW is an interesting one. Its critical reception will be hugely influential - if it's good, it could get up to $300 million, but if it's bad then it won't do much more than $200. I guess I'll settle somewhere in the middle with $260 million.

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The Panda Global Phenomenon

The Panda

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1, what was the other? It adjusts to 1B without the re-release.

 

Box Office Mojo doesn't show all the re-releases, like when Titanic was put back into the theater fairly recently after it had just gotten out.

 

I think lisa has a compiled list of adjusted original runs and E.T. was higher than Titanic.

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Walt Disney Summer Tentpole

Walt Disney

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Actually ET's original run adjusts to 939m whereas Titanic original run adjusts to 1068m, so Titanic was bigger adjusted as well ;)

 

Domestically, E.T. is greater. I have no idea how anyone can adjust OS numbers, since it's impossible with the exchange rates continuously changing. I don't believe your numbers.

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