Official Weekend Estimates: Maleficent - 70M, X-Men - 32.6M, A Million Ways - 17.1M, Godzilla - 12.2M

[a2k]

C'mon, don't kick a spider when he's down.

sony and wb should join hands to have a godzilla vs spiderman film.

125m ow and 199m finish.

[baumer]

the number 4 million ways is definitely low but it will not be a flop its just I think too many of us had had Ted in mind when thinking about what it may or may not do

[redfirebird2008]

I wonder what Sony is thinking. They marketed it like TDK or TA and it's performing like a B level superhero movie.

[baumer]

When compared to other comedies. If some movie has 1 million budget and makes 5 million then obviously it's a financial success but you can't exactly call it box office audience hit if other movies make so much more

I did not say it was a hit. I said compare to its budget it will not be a flop. There's a difference

[CJohn]

I wonder what Sony is thinking. They marketed it like TDK or TA and it's performing like a B level superhero movie.

To think Thor and Captain America are now bigger draws DOM is insane. Insane!

[iceroll]

I wonder what Sony is thinking. They marketed it like TDK or TA and it's performing like a B level superhero movie.

"Obviously we didn't interfere enough! TASM3-5 need even more villains and we have to build brand awareness up by doing more spin-offs and promotion!"

[ACSlater]

you're going to have to explain to me how million ways is a flop on a budget is in the 40s. Ted was the complete anomaly. Million ways was never going to perform like that.

 

Ted was a really good movie too...

 

[Shawn Robbins]

Finally caught up.  This is my first time at a pc since last Sunday.  My thoughts on a few things.

 

If Maleficent opens to 25 mill, how in the world does Variety have it only doing 65?  Wouldn't it get a healthy Saturday bump?

 

Thurs:  4.5

Fri:  20.5

Sat:  25.5

Sun:  18.7

 

So close to 70 mill.

 

The Matrix is top ten film of all time for me. I hold it in as high esteem as films like Empire Strikes Back, Aliens, FOTR and Pulp Fiction.  It's a movie that redefined cinema.

 

I'm watching Terminator 2.  Fucking brilliant.  Come with me if you want to live.

 

Million Ways to Die is good and very funny.  I think it might have good legs.  If it opens to 25, hopefully it hits 100.

 

A 35 mill weekend is where X-men will land.  I don't care what the reports are, it has to fall that hard, because that's what X-men's do.  35 mill gives it a 61% drop.  That would be outstanding.

 

Godzilla only falling 55% this weekend is not enough.  It should drop another 65%.  

 

I don't have the whole story yet but it seems that Shawn has cut back from posting significantly.  I love the guy and Shawn is the heart and soul of this place.  He might take his predicting too seriously (his words) but I think a lot of us do at times.   Shawn has been a friend and he has been a guy who stuck with me and showed incredible loyalty by allowing me to be a moderator here.  I know that my style of posting doesn't always endear itself to all of the posters here but Shawn defends me because he knows who I am.  He is also a tireless contributor in front of and behind the scenes.  I take my hat off to him.  He is one of a kind.  So if he says that he takes things too seriously, so be it.  If he says that we cannot shoot the messenger when he is just reporting the numbers that he gets from studios, so be it.  

 

Glad to see we have two RTH's here.

 

Good to be able to chat with you all, finally.  

 

And finally I'll leave you with this:

 

 

 

 

 

(Sorry CJohn, had to borrow that one from you. )

Edited May 31, 2014 by ShawnMR

[Last Man Standing]

I wonder what Sony is thinking. They marketed it like TDK or TA and it's performing like a B level superhero movie.

 

they poured huge amounts of money into it, and proceeded to hire a so-so director and hack scriptwriters. i literally don't understand what they were thinking. 

Edited May 31, 2014 by Last Man Standing

[Punishment]

 

I'm not a box office prognostication Guru like some of the really good ones here, but even I called for a 63-65% drop this weekend (go back to last weekends thread if you don't believe me) for X-men simply because it's a notoriously front loaded franchise and the holiday weekend inflates the numbers.  Sunday fell about 10%.  A normal opening Sunday is supposed to fall by about 25-35%.  So it falling to about 33 mill this weekend is exactly the range it was expected to fall.

 

To be fair only a very few people predicted DOFP to fall more than 65%.  I think a lot (most) people felt that DOFP would hold better and it looks like it is now the second worst Memorial Day hold behind only X-Men the Last Stand. 

[La Binoche]

I feel bad for all the people who were predicting/hoping that Maleficent would be this year's Lone Ranger or John Carter. 

[BobbyJohn]

I did not say it was a hit. I said compare to its budget it will not be a flop. There's a difference

And I didn't say it was financially unsuccesful project for the studio, from the start I was comparing it with other comedies of the summer

[lab276]

"Obviously we didn't interfere enough! TASM3-5 need even more villains and we have to build brand awareness up by doing more spin-offs and promotion!"

That's a depressing thought.

[CJohn]

I feel bad for all the people who were predicting/hoping that Maleficent would be this year's Lone Ranger or John Carter. 

I never saw anyone predicting or hoping for that... 

[a2k]

To be fair only a very few people predicted DOFP to fall more than 65%.  I think a lot (most) people felt that DOFP would hold better and it looks like it is now the second worst Memorial Day hold behind only X-Men the Last Stand. 

 

thanks to social media, online buzz and more efficient marketing, studios are reeling in more and more people in the ow every year. front-loading has been increasing yearly. though there will be some saturation eventually.

 

next weekend will be interesitng. even a not so well received movie like x3 "stabilized" to a 52% 3rd weekend drop. of the big mem day openers potc3 is the highest at 53%. indy is 49%. hangover 2 and ff6 are at 44%.

Edited May 31, 2014 by a2k

[druv10]

I wonder what Sony is thinking. They marketed it like TDK or TA and it's performing like a B level superhero movie.

 

Maybe time has come to make a quality movie. Just putting SM out there doesn't guarantee anything. 

[Goffe]

You win some, you lose some. I guess X-Men wont be a +300m franchise, at least not for the foreseeable future.

Well, I didn't predict 300m (235m is my current prediction in the BSG) and I said it would drop 61.5% in the 65% over/under thread.

I was terribly wrong about its legs though, I kept acting like I was Mr. I-know-everything-you're-wrong   (sadly, it is part of my personality, but I always try my best to tone it down) 

[Heat Vision]

"Obviously we didn't interfere enough! TASM3-5 need even more villains and we have to build brand awareness up by doing more spin-offs and promotion!"

 

That's exactly what they are going to do. They should just sell lol

[BobbyJohn]

I never saw anyone predicting or hoping for that... 

Check Maleficent thread then

[baumer]

Ouch major floppage for both MacFarlane and Sandler back to back weekends. Audience is ruthless when ti comes to comedies this summer, either big hits or flops

So you didn't use the word flop in this post? Nice try buddy