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Part 2: Predictions

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Hiccup's Tracking Numbers- January Tracking

Jan. 7–9

The Nine Tailors is tracking for a strong 12 million opening weekend and Beast of Bray Road should begin its long limited run with a decent .4M opening weekend

Jan. 14–17 (MLK Day)

Tracking for Illusiono suggests a near 40 million four day weekend at 3,650 sites which should be a strong start of the original superhero film. Phone Fiend is tracking for a 17 million four day weekend at 2,811 sites which should be good considering the budget.

Jan. 21–23

Tracking for the Hills Abduction is reading a near 18M opening weekend which is strong. You Just Got Beat by a Girl is looking for a 16M weekend but could end up higher due to lack of family films. Spider-Baby's tracking is horrific at sub .9M.

Jan. 28–30

Everglades is reading toward a fantastic19M opening weekend while Ready...Aim...Fire is not doing to hot at around 9M.

January tracking suggest an average January with Illusiono easily winning the month. The films this month should perform with in the expected range and only two are tracking in the flop zone.

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Hiccup's Tracking Numbers- February Tracking

Feb. 4–6

Seduction is currently on track to earn a mediocre 11M on Superbowl weekend. This should be enough though to cover the budget. Teratoma another horror film is tracking for a 7M opening which is solid considering the strange and disturbing plot line.

Feb. 11–13

Disco Dan offers audiences a break from horror film. This film is tracking for a 14M opening weekend. Valentine's Day Vendetta which should get a boost since it is opening over Valentine's Day weekend is looking for a robust 18M opening weekend while fellow horror film Ghost Story which is opening fairly small at 2,000 sites is tracking toward a disappointing 5M.

Feb. 18–21 (President’s Day)

Cycle of the Werewolf is appearing strong this weekend. It should offer something different to horror fans. The Steven King book adoption is looking for a powerful 35M over the four day weekend. Meanwhile Corporate Secrets should open strong at 37M over the four day weekend. President's Day is looking great.

Feb. 25–27

Siri's tracking is looking great as awareness is high and it has an advantage of being the first family film to open since January. Siri is looking for a strong 32M debt opening weekend. Just for Cash is tracking not well at only 7M. Beast of Bray Road should finally go wide but this will remain small at only 2M.

February is crowed will horror films. With three films looking to open over 30M this could be a large month but I doubt any of those films will reach 100M.

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Hiccup's Tracking Numbers- March Tracking

Mar. 4–6

The End of the Universe is tracking lower than expected. This PG-13 animated film isn't looking to good despite amazing reviews. Awareness is high but Land of Storms could steal some of The End of the Universe's thunder. Tracking suggests a 42M opening but the studio will have to be patient since strong legs are almost a fact. Land of Storms's tracking is pointing toward a 31M opening weekend which should affect The End of the Universe and vis versa.

Mar. 11–13

Barren World and God's Deal battle this weekend. God's Deal is tracking far better at 56M while Barren World is at a meek 39M. Both films are having great marketing campaigns and should no doubt do better than tracking. Barren World like The End of the Universe probably will see strong legs making up for its small opening.

Mar. 18–20

Our Friend the Witch is tracking toward a 16M opening weekend while Night of Error is heading for a poor 6M.

Mar. 25–27

The Adventures should bring back animation fan families to theaters. Tracking suggests a 38M opening weekend at 3,783 sites. Reviews aren't terrific so opening weekend and word of mouth from families will be important. Lucky in Love is tracking extremely well at a powerful 29M opening weekend. Audiences will be looking for a light hearted film and Lucky in Love is perfect.

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Hiccup's Tracking Numbers- April Tracking

Apr. 1–3

The Machine Stops is tracking extremely poorly at only 18M opening weekend. The film opens across 3,755 theaters but sci-fi/disaster audience fatigue looks like it will settle in. Band of the Decade doesn't look like it will change this poor start to April with tracking saying 10M.

Apr. 8–10

Spring Awakening looks like to bring life into April with tracking suggesting a majestic 31M opening weekend. Word of mouth hopefully can keep this film a powerful contender throughout April. The Day I Met Mina is tracking at 13M and Trails of Tears will start its limited opening at a strong 4M.

Apr. 15–17

Paranoia which is much hyped by the horror and mystery fan base is tracking for a 34M opening weekend which will not doubt be very front loaded. Sarah's Surefire Cure For The Blues plans to counter program Paranoia and tracing is suggesting a solid 15M opening weekend.

Apr. 22–24

Steven Spielberg's Elantris looks like despite the big director name to flop like The Machine Stops. Elantris is tracking for a poor 24M opening weekend at 3,745 theaters. Trails of Tears will go wide and tracking is saying it should earn about 28M opening weekend

Apr. 29–May1

While summer start earn with Con Air 2 and Tarsem Singh's Cinderella? Tracking says yes! Con Air 2 is tracking for a massive 60M opening weekend. Hype among fans and the strong cult base it wild. Con Air 2 will no doubt be a front loaded event. Tarsem Singh's Cinderella looks great in the trailers but since it isn't appealing to families this could hurt it. However don't underestimate the power of tween and teen driven films. Cinderella is tracking for a 46M opening.

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The Nine Tailors- 15.1 OW/54.9 DOM

Beast of Bray Road- 0.63 (OW- limited)/2.4 (First Wide)/22.7 DOM

Illusiono- 43.2 (3-Day)/52.8 (4-Day)/112.6 DOM [This would get a major marketing push as the first event of the year and only one of the month]

Phone Fiend- 8.2 OW/21.0 DOM

Hills Abduction- 13.4 OW/34.8 DOM

You Just Got Beat By a Girl- 14.8 OW/48.9 DOM

Spider-Baby- 4.1 OW/9.7 DOM

Everglades- 21.6 OW/52.5 DOM

Ready...Aim...Fire!- 11.8 OW/28.5 DOM

Edited by 4815162342
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Hiccup's Tracking Numbers- May Tracking

May 6–8

Summer begins with Interconnected and Fab 5. Interconnect is tracking well at 75M thanks to stunning trailers and a solid marketing campaign. The film hopefully can hold though the summer. Female star driven Fab 5 is tracking solidly at 27M. Summer should start off well!!

May 13–15

The Secrets of Mana: Journey Begins is tracking well at 61M and looks to keep the summer alive. Northwest Nightmare is tracking poorly at 29M. It appears audiences would rather see The Secrets of Mana or Interconnected.

May 20–22

Alien-Nation should keep summer alive at 69M but reviews aren't strong and Apocalypse will cut legs short so the studio is hoping for a larger opening. Birds of a Feather is tracking well since it is the first family film event of the summer. Tracking is saying a 54M opening weekend

May 27–30 (Memorial Day)

The Steven Spielberg and Jerry Bruckheimer collaboration film event Apocalypse should sweep Memorial Day weekend with 135M on the four day weekend. Marketing has capitalized that this is one of the most anticipated films of Year 1 and audiences seem to agree. Reviews have been very strong and despite a big drop the weekend after, Apocalypse could stabilize throughout June. Meanwhile The Penny Jar is tracking toward a 36M four day weekend.

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Hiccup's Tracking Numbers- June Tracking

Jun. 3–5

The Ultimate Race looks like it will narrowly race into first with 49M opening weekend. The sword-buckle adventure film, Nation's tracking suggest a probable photo-finish weekend between the two at 48M.

Jun. 10–12

Sitting Ducks's tracking is looking positive at 67M opening weekend. The film should continue to hold well throughout the summer for families looking for light and cute animated fun. The worldwide bestseller Pride and Prejudice and Zombies comes to life in 3D and with a powerful well-known cast and crew. Pride and Prejudice and Zombies is looking for a powerful launch at 51M. The film like Paranoia and Con Air 2 will battle for the most front loaded film of Year 1.

Jun. 17–19

Day of the Destructor is tracking warmly at 55M while Jack Black's Pizza Man looks to disappoint at 15M. The lesbian drama, Jane Loves Karen is tracking at 9M.

Jun. 24–26

Fairylight vs. The Dark Victorian. Fairylight is appearing in tracking to win the weekend at 63M thanks to a push from the studio. The Tim Burton and Johnny Depp film, The Dark Victorian despite a fantastic looking cast and fun plot line doesn't seem to be finding a strong domestic fan base. Tracking is suggesting an average 32M opening weekend.

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I'd be very happy for Interconnected to open that high... something like Star Trek's numbers which opened the same weekend, but my studio would be happy with anything 50m+, since the budget wasn't huge./

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Hiccup's Tracking Numbers- July Tracking

Jul. 1–4 (Fourth of July)

Call of Duty is taking very well on the four day weekend at 146M. Call of Duty is much hyped by American audiences and should no doubt hold in the tracking. Paperboy is is tracking at an average 21M.

Jul. 8–10

Nightmare Chronicles appears to be the first film to let down summer. Tracking suggests a meager 25M. Cries in the Night is tracking at strongly at 22M while Park51 begins to controversial limited launch at 7M at 203 sites.

Jul. 15–17

Vesta which has boasted amazing trailers and posters in its marketing campaign is tracking toward a massive 96M opening weekend. Vesta's number could rise as awareness grows and positive reviews continue to trickle in. My Side of the Mountain's tracking is mediocre at 17M. It appears families would rather stay home.

Jul. 22–24

City of Bones is tracking very poorly despite this film having the widest theater release of the year at 4,175 sites. This is the second vampire themed film in just three weeks and audiences aren't appearing to want to waste their money on another critically panned film. Tracking is suggesting at weak 29M opening weekend.

Jul. 29–31

The Chrysalids's tracking is suggesting a 73M launch opening weekend for the M. Night Shyamalan period horror futuristic thriller. The Chrysalids have seen strong reviews from critics which is a great sign. Beer Buddies is tracking toward a mixed 15M opening weekend for the R rated comedy.

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Hiccup's Tracking Numbers- August Tracking

Aug. 5–7

The remake To Kill A Mockingbird is tracking to open August decently at 28M while Mr. Belvedere is tracking for a 19M opening.

Aug. 12–14

After Doomsday is tracking to open doomishly at 33M. The Michael Bay film is apparently not a audience pick. Not So Tall Tales could win the actual weekend since tracking suggest a 30M opening.

Aug. 19–21

Hired Guns is tracking extremely well at 40M and the studio is hoping for that number to stay until the actual weekend. Flight of Fear is apparently afraid of heights since it is only tracking at 10M. Park51 goes wide this weekend and is tracking to smack 8M.

Aug. 26–28

Chronicle is tracking smoothly to end the summer with 30M while Defensive is tracking poorly at 14M.

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Hiccup's making some wild and unlikely predictions.


Seduction- 14.7 OW/35.3 DOM

Teratoma- 6.4 OW/16.5 DOM

Disco Dan- 11.2 OW/ 36.8 DOM

Valentine's Day Vendetta- 20.5 OW/54.7 DOM

Ghost Story- 10.4 OW/38.7 DOM

Cycle of the Werewolf- 24.2 OW/30.0 4-Day/64.3 DOM

Corporate Secrets- 19.2 OW/24.2 4-Day/72.8 DOM

Siri- 35.2 OW/119.2 DOM

Just for Cash- 9.2 OW/31.1 DOM

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