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1 minute ago, Ethan Hunt said:

 

These two posts feel kind of contradictive to me....

 

Not really. There are four types of audiences: avid moviegoers who see everything, the arthouse crowd, the casual moviegoer, and Average Joe. 

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MPAA's 2015 moviegoing stats: http://deadline.com/2016/04/mpaa-2015-box-office-report-1201736096/

 

31% didn't go the the movies at all

10% only went once

49% went more than once but less than twelve times

10% went 12+ times and accounted for nearly half of admissions

 

Realistically speaking this movie only appeals to people in the last group and a small sliver of the 2-11 group.

 

Edited by WrathOfHan
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2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

This is really going to appeal only to fans of Shane Black, the cast, cinephiles, and no one else. Sadly, I do not think that is a very large number of moviegoers.

It only takes about 11-12M admissions for it to reach 100M (which it probably won't). There are about 32 million people in the frequent moviegoer group per the MPAA and it's not like this is an arthouse movie.

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Just now, WrathOfHan said:

It only takes about 11-12M admissions for it to reach 100M (which it probably won't). There are about 32 million people in the frequent moviegoer group per the MPAA and it's not like this is an arthouse movie.

I just don't want to hear anyone act surprised and a WWW thread when the Friday numbers come in with $4M or so. The mass appeal just isn't there.

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6 minutes ago, filmlover said:

This is really going to appeal only to fans of Shane Black, the cast, cinephiles, and no one else. Sadly, I do not think that is a very large number of moviegoers.

 

I'm just not sure why you believe that. It's an action comedy with decent marketing. I'm not saying it's going to do gangbusters, but you seem to be speaking from a relatively myopic point of view. I live in "middle America." This isn't Under the Skin. It's a buddy flick that will appeal to plenty of adults country wide. Only enough for 10-15 mil OW, but that's a lot more than only NY and LA. 

Edited by tonytr87
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Just now, tonytr87 said:

 

I'm just not sure why you believe that. It's an action comedy with decent marketing. I'm not saying it's going to do gangbusters, but you seem to be speaking from a relatively myopic point of view. I live in "middle America." This isn't Under the Skin. It's a buddy flick that will appeal to plenty of adults country wide. Only enough for 10-15 mil OW, but that's a lot more than only NY and LA. 

Some people are expecting this to open to $20M+ when realistically, it'll be lucky to open to a flat $15M. I fail to see why this would open much better than The Man From U.N.C.L.E., strong reviews be damned.

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Just signed up for an advanced screening tomorrow.  Hopefully I'll be able to get in.  The theater is close by enough, so hopefully there isn't some long ass line otherwise, I won't see it.  

Edited by AaronL
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2 hours ago, AaronL said:

Just signed up for an advanced screening tomorrow.  Hopefully I'll be able to get in.  The theater is close by enough, so hopefully there isn't some long ass line otherwise, I won't see it.  

 

You in NorCal? I have passes for screenings in San Francisco (Century San Francisco Center) and Santa Clara (AMC Mercado) tomorrow. Might try to make it if possible and if work permits.

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20 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

You in NorCal? I have passes for screenings in San Francisco (Century San Francisco Center) and Santa Clara (AMC Mercado) tomorrow. Might try to make it if possible and if work permits.

Yeah, but in Sacramento (UA Arden).  It's only a 15 minute drive, so I'll definitely check it out.  I've never been to any of these type of early screenings minus BvS (which was only 2 days earlier), so I'm not sure of the wait.  

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14 hours ago, filmlover said:

This is really going to appeal only to fans of Shane Black, the cast, cinephiles, and no one else. Sadly, I do not think that is a very large number of moviegoers.

 

My guess is 99% of North America has no idea who Shane Black is.

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