The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies OS Thread | 700M OS passed

[Asyulus]

Edit:

840 OS

[Leyla]

the date moved forward here to dec 11

& imo its not good for the BO

By the time NY holidays come there wont be much of the film left in the theaters cause millions of films are released on Dec 29 

[eXtacy]

Shorter film, stronger marketing and finale factor

 

I cant see a final gross below 700m, my prediction is 785m

[ShouldIBeHere]

With the bad exchange rates I might now say 750 Mio is the ceiling for this. Cannot see it reaching 800 Mio unless China surprises.

Edited December 3, 2014 by ShouldIBeHere

[peludo]

With the bad exchange rates I might now say 750 Mio is the ceiling for this. Cannot see it reaching 800 Mio unless China surprises.

Quite agree. In spite of the first impressions about that the movie is better than previous entries, I do not see a big increase. If China makes what people think in Chinese thread (about same numbers than other blockbusters this year, 110-120), I think 740-750 is where it can land.

[Asyulus]

DOS has increased China gross so BOFA will repeat the same or gross even higher in China. I say 180.

[peludo]

DOS has increased China gross so BOFA will repeat the same or gross even higher in China. I say 180.

AUJ did $50m and DOS $75m. I am sorry and I wish you were right, but $180m is unrealistic.

[Leyla]

Ill be happy if it reached 100 mio

Beyond that Im not sure

[keysersoze123]

I dont see hobbit 3 increasing that much considering it will release post chinese new year. Without holiday boost and 2 months delay I cant see it gross more than 100-120m range.

[peludo]

I dont see hobbit 3 increasing that much considering it will release post chinese new year. Without holiday boost and 2 months delay I cant see it gross more than 100-120m range.

...what make me question myself how much would it do if it had a good release date...

[keysersoze123]

...what make me question myself how much would it do if it had a good release date...

 

its impossible china will let any major hollywood movie release in december. Avatar opened just post new year and these days they are blocking till CNY. So its moot to ponder. But I would think 50% greater potential if hollywood had open run.

 

If any hollywood movie can hold decent number of screens( 15%+) for even a month they can do more than what they are grossing. Even interstellar did not open with huge screens and then had under 25% after its 1st week.

[pepsa]

DOS has increased China gross so BOFA will repeat the same or gross even higher in China. I say 180.

 

That is way to possitive:

For now I can't see more than 740M OS and DOM won't pass 270M. I realy hope it breakes out but atm I don't think so

[Asyulus]

Many sites claim that the BOFA is the strongest movie in the trilogy such as independent.

 

Tomatometer is by the way currently very high, at 79%, which means that this is also the best in the trilogy. So it could attract even more audiences and even regain confidence.

 

My new prediction is around 820 OS because of powerhouse marketing, finale factor, stunning visuals, Freeman and Armitage's performance, and large-scale epic battles.

[peludo]

Many sites claim that the BOFA is the strongest movie in the trilogy such as independent.

 

Tomatometer is by the way currently very high, at 79%, which means that this is also the best in the trilogy. So it could attract even more audiences and even regain confidence.

 

My new prediction is around 820 OS because of powerhouse marketing, finale factor, stunning visuals, Freeman and Armitage's performance, and large-scale epic battles.

The RT score is not definitive. There are just 14 reviews up. We have to wait until maybe 50-60 reviews to start to see a trend.

[keysersoze123]

Many sites claim that the BOFA is the strongest movie in the trilogy such as independent.

 

Tomatometer is by the way currently very high, at 79%, which means that this is also the best in the trilogy. So it could attract even more audiences and even regain confidence.

 

My new prediction is around 820 OS because of powerhouse marketing, finale factor, stunning visuals, Freeman and Armitage's performance, and large-scale epic battles.

 

no offense but you cannot extrapolate from 14 reviews. Quite a few rottenmovies start well with "friendly" critics. While I am not saying this will be bad but you cannot extrapolate overall score for now. Plus average rating of 6.7/10 aint that great. That gives better picture on where its heading that raw % numbers.

 

820m is impossible with how strong dollar is. It will drop HARD in russia and will lose some in europe as well. I dont think it will do well outside china in asia. So I dont see big increase from DOS. I wouldn't be surprised by a small drop in dollar gross assuming this increases as much as ROTK did from TT(ROTK benefited by weak dollar).

[Noctis]

Many sites claim that the BOFA is the strongest movie in the trilogy such as independent.

 

Tomatometer is by the way currently very high, at 79%, which means that this is also the best in the trilogy. So it could attract even more audiences and even regain confidence.

 

My new prediction is around 820 OS because of powerhouse marketing, finale factor, stunning visuals, Freeman and Armitage's performance, and large-scale epic battles.

 

79% and a 6.7 average rating is considered very high? It's not. At all. 

 

Powerhouse marketing? Nope. Finale factor? Will give it a small bump. Stunning visuals? Not a reason for a jump. Freeman/Armtidge also add nothing to the box office. 

 

$820m is not happening unless China explodes and does $200m. Which it won't. $115m max.

[Leyla]

That is way to possitive:

For now I can't see more than 740M OS and DOM won't pass 270M. I realy hope it breakes out but atm I don't think so

same

 

 

Whats good it's action oriented so WOM in China can be pretty good

 

so we dont know the definite chineese release date now??? at least wether its January or february?

Edited December 3, 2014 by Tauriel

[Asyulus]

As a Hobbit fan, I think this movie will struggle to outgross AUJ's worldwide gross for about 85 percent chance.

Edited December 3, 2014 by Asyulus

[peludo]

Many sites claim that the BOFA is the strongest movie in the trilogy such as independent.

 

Tomatometer is by the way currently very high, at 79%, which means that this is also the best in the trilogy. So it could attract even more audiences and even regain confidence.

 

My new prediction is around 820 OS because of powerhouse marketing, finale factor, stunning visuals, Freeman and Armitage's performance, and large-scale epic battles.

 

As a Hobbit fan, I think this movie will struggle to outgross AUJ's worldwide gross for about 85 percent chance.

If TH3 makes 820 OS and struggles to reach AUJ WW (1.017 billion), you are saying that it will be lucky if hits 200 in US?

[Asyulus]

If TH3 makes 820 OS and struggles to reach AUJ WW (1.017 billion), you are saying that it will be lucky if hits 200 in US?

Just a mistake, but my new prediction is 285 DOM and 745 OS, for a worldwide total for 1.030B.

Anyways, Obviously, it will reach over 200 DOM.

My most realistic and most optimistic guess is therefore 1.090B. (295 DOM+795 OS)