Our Greatest & Spectacularly Tragic Box Office Predictions

[spazz91]

No big deal, as I just think of tragedy when I see tragic.Maybe, misinformed, misguided, ill-informed, horrific, terrible, awful, atrocious......etc

 

some of these predictions ARE tragedies.

[Neo]

BEST (In No Order)

Captain America: The Winter Soldier

MY: 10/43/35/24/102/265/340/605

Actual: 10.2/36/34/23/95/255/454/709

 

Breaking Dawn Part II

MY: 15/26/68/143/300/515/815 (Split Prevs/MID)

Actual: 30.4/71/141/292/537/829

 

The Dark Knight Rises

MY: 29/80/172/34/28/206/234/490/590/1.080 OS OW: 48M WW OW: 220M

Actual: 30.6/75/160/19/17/198/211/448/636/1.084 OS OW: 88M WW OW: 248M

 

Deathly Hallows Part I

MY: 25/63/35/27/125/325/670/995  OS OW: 280M WW OW: 405M

Actual: 24/61/38/25/125/295/664/960 OS OW: 205M WW  OW: 330M

 

Fast & Furious 6

MY: 9/44/36/33/113/25/138/276/525/801

Actual: 6.5/38/31/26/97/238/550/778

 

Iron Man 3

MY: 16/72/61/50/183/495/820/1.315

Actual: 15.6/68/62/43/174/409/820/1.215

 

TRAGIC

Toy Story 3/IM2 - Expected 500M with this one.

An Unexpected Journey - Used inflation and some magic to get 600M/1.8B.

Pacific Rim - Grossly over predicted to to ID4 #'s WW and 200M++ DOM

Knight and Day - Mine: 50/225 Actual: 20/76

The Hunger Games - Was off in all facets: 50M on OW, 150M on DOM, MID were close but off by 25M+ on OD.

Boondock Saints II - 38/80
 

Not sure if worst, but all definitely up there.

Edited June 13, 2014 by Neo

[Films]

Great thread idea. Love your top/bottom 20 ShawnMR. I remmeber reading about at shrek 2 Wednesday awful opening on the numbers earlier this year

[DAR]

BEST (In No Order)

Captain America: The Winter Soldier

MY: 10/43/35/24/102/265/340/605

Actual: 10.2/36/34/23/95/255/454/709

 

Breaking Dawn Part II

MY: 15/26/68/143/300/515/815 (Split Prevs/MID)

Actual: 30.4/71/141/292/537/829

 

The Dark Knight Rises

MY: 29/80/172/34/28/206/234/490/590/1.080

Actual: 30.6/75/160/19/17/198/211/448/636/1.084

 

Deathly Hallows Part I

MY: 25/63/35/27/125/325/670/995  OS OW: 280M WW OW: 405M

Actual: 24/61/38/25/125/295/664/960 OS OW: 205M WW  OW: 330M

 

Fast & Furious 6

MY: 9/44/36/33/113/25/138/276/525/801

Actual: 6.5/38/31/26/97/238/550/778

 

Iron Man 3

MY: 16/72/61/50/183/495/820/1.315

Actual: 15.6/68/62/43/174/409/820/1.215

 

TRAGIC

Toy Story 3/IM2 - Expected 500M with this one.

An Unexpected Journey - Used inflation and some magic to get 600M/1.8B.

Pacific Rim - Grossly over predicted to to ID4 #'s WW and 200M++ DOM

Knight and Day - Mine: 50/225 Actual: 20/76

The Hunger Games - Was off in all facets: 50M on OW, 150M on DOM, MID were close but off by 25M+ on OD.

Boondock Saints II - 38/80

 

Not sure if worst 5, but all definitely up there.

 

 

It's like seeing Rain Man in action. 

[lilmac]

Ones at top of my headGoodPredicting divergent would break out before literally anyone elseRide along over 100M before nearly anyone had heard of itWill look at my computer later for more good 2014 predictionsBadTranscendence over 150M47 ronin under 20M totalAnd more I will look at later

 

 

That one wasn't THAT bad.  

[lilmac]

Best prediction:

 

Predicting Toy Story 3 would make $110.3 million on its OW.  It made exactly that.  Got the #1 slot for #1 predictions on the Derby that weekend.  

 

 

Worst prediction:

 

Transcendence over $100million

[RichWS]

I regret predicting 240M for Pacific Rim. My biggest miss was probably 400M for Reloaded, but I have to remind myself I was a young buck.

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

In honor of Shawn's departure, I'm gonna go all 2006-2007 on this one.

 

Lost my shirt:

 

300Final Prediction: under Sin City($29.1/74.1m)Actual: $70.9/210.6mI was sure a concept like 300, not even aided in direction by Miller himself would fail spectacularly. It seems I failed spectacularly in that assumption. I won't go into what I though The Spirit would do...

 

I nailed it:

 

Superman Returns

Final Prediction: $200 millionActual: $200.08 million This was my earliest prediction on BOM, and easily my best, since I had no clue what I was doing. Of course, I have to thank Alan Horn(Head of WB at the time) for fudging SR's late legs to get over the mark.

Edited June 13, 2014 by Accursed Arachnid!™

[Films]

New Good and Bads for 2014 films. I made these predictions in November or December 2013

 

Great

300: Rise Of An Empire- 105M

The Monuments Men- 85M

Son Of G-d- 62M

Need For Speed- 42.1M [finished with 43.5m]

3 Days To Kill- 30M [700k off final total]

Neighbors to break out [had it a 95M in November 2013 and made it over 150M in March 2014]

 

Good

Captain America: TWS- 240M

The Nut Job- 57M

Calling Sabotage and Vampire Academy to be 2 of the biggest Q1 bombs

 

Terrible

Noah- 225M

Mr Peabody And Sherman- 197M

The Muppets Most Wanted- 110M

Devil's Due- 68.9M

Bears- 56M

Bad Words- 48M

Walk Of Shame- 40M

A Haunted House 2- 39M

TASM2- 305M

AMWTDITW- 147M

Chef- 90M

Million Dollar Arm- 85M

[filmlover]

My greatest box office prediction: not sure if anyone was a poster on the short lived website Box Office Fanatic (where the people fed up with Kal-El fled to, and then after that site fell apart, Filmgasm), but everyone was participating in a box office game back then and it was the weekend when The Grudge 2 opened (October 13, 2006) and we all had to predict the dailies for the weekend. I predicted $10M/$7M/$4M for a $21M opening. Everyone thought I was insane for predicting it would be that frontloaded. Come that Sunday, the weekend estimates came in and the dailies (http://boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2006-10-13&p=.htm). Everyone's jaw dropped and applauded me for making such a gutsy call. Good times.

[tommycruise]

Good Fast five OW 85mDespicable me 2 375m Dom Fast 6 95m ow 250m Dom 550 m os(nailed that) I believe I had pegged iron man 2 at 130m owInception at around 300m Dom The butler over 100m BadOblivion over minority report adjustedBourne legacy over Bourne supremacy I predicted 42 ow for Jonah hex on the derby (worst box office I've ever made)Snow White & the huntsman over 200m Prometheus over 150m + Cowboys & aliens I believe I had this over 150m

[CJohn]

I don't usually remember them, but I had a pretty bad prediction for Godzilla in my signature.

 

Loved my Hobbit theory for the TASM franchise. The only thing I did not expect were the bad as fuck legs TASM2 had. But nailed everything else.

Edited June 13, 2014 by CJohn

[AniNate]

Best:

 

- Sticking to my guns on my 160-180ish prediction for Wreck-It Ralph, even though everyone was calling it the new "Roger Rabbit"

- Inception beating The Dark Knight overseas

 

Worst:

 

- Pain and Gain over Oblivion

- Under 170 for Madagascar 3

- Every 2011 animated sequel does not finish underneath their predecessor

 

I'm sure there's plenty more bad ones I can think of

Edited June 13, 2014 by tribefan695

[Jessie]

My worst call of all time was creating a club named '2012 over Avatar club.' The hilarious thing was, a lot of people joined.

[AniNate]

My worst call of all time was creating a club named '2012 over Avatar club.'The hilarious thing was, a lot of people joined.

 

I imagine you created that right after that big TV spot with LA collapsing. At that point all anyone had seen of Avatar was that teaser trailer. 

Edited June 13, 2014 by tribefan695

[Jessie]

Good Fast five OW 85mDespicable me 2 375m Dom Fast 6 95m ow 250m Dom 550 m os(nailed that) I believe I had pegged iron man 2 at 130m owInception at around 300m Dom The butler over 100m BadOblivion over minority report adjustedBourne legacy over Bourne supremacy I predicted 42 ow for Jonah hex on the derby (worst box office I've ever made)Snow White & the huntsman over 200m Prometheus over 150m + Cowboys & aliens I believe I had this over 150m

Let's not forget Thor 2 and Cap 2 over 400m

[Jessie]

I imagine you created that right after that big TV spot with LA collapsing. At that point all anyone had seen of Avatar was that teaser trailer.

I remember it being right after avatars teaser. Looking back in it that was still a pretty damn good teaser.

[CJohn]

I am pretty sure Baumer predicted under 20M total for The Hangover.

[Jay Beezy]

Can't quite recall exact predictions or what I was most embarrassed about, in terms of my history of predictions. I'll just go with one that I'm not happy about and one that I am, in terms of what I can remember. Both involve an actor that I am a fan of, but am disgruntled with, as I have stated many times.

 

Least Favorite Prediction:

Funny People

Prediction: Don't remember my exact prediction. I'll just say my reasonable prediction pre-release would have been arguably half-way between the grosses of The 40-Year-Old Virgin and Knocked Up.

Actual: 51M

Analysis: This was more based on my desire to see it do well than looking at the general signs. Judd Apatow, the hit filmmaker of Knocked Up combining Seth Rogen, the star of said film, with Adam Sandler, one of the highest grossing comedy stars, should have been a home run. The notion of it being slightly more dramatic than Knocked Up didn't put me off. It was refreshing to see Sandler in an R-rated film like that. Also refreshing that he was mocking his career choices. This should have been the film that changed the course of his career. Alas, things weren't meant to be here. The subject matter ended up being too depressing for audiences and not to mention the first Hangover film pretty much monopolized the R-rated comedy market for the entire summer. So the film ended up less than half of what Apatow's 40-Year-Old Virgin made and we ended up with Sandler making a cross dressing atrocity of a film.

 

Most Favorite Prediction:

Blended

Prediction: Just under 70M, with a Blended Under Jack & Jill club

Actual: Will probably end up with less than 45M

Analysis: Since Funny People, despite a brief detour in R-rated territory for That's My Boy, Sandler has tried to stay more family friendly in his endeavors, which led to the Razzie-winning atrocity Jack & Jill, a film that, curiously, was announced after Funny People's disappointment. That film seemed to leave a stain on Sandler's career, which, after a brief dabble in sequel territory, culminated with Blended. Because it was the first PG-13 non-sequel Sandler film since Just Go With It and it reunited him with his favorite female costar of movies past Drew Barrymore, this was deemed to be a safe Sandler film that was banking on the nostalgia factor of Sandler/Barrymore and therefore should have been easy money. However, I wasn't drinking the Kool-Aid here, and felt that it would underperform. That felt reflected in the trailer, which had its share of cheap and non-unique humor which had audiences mixed. I made the Under Jack & Jill club with the notion that when you throw crap at the window, it sticks, and whatever Blended looked like didn't look like it was gonna stick. The comedy crowd felt satisfied enough with Neighbors so it seemed doubtful Blended was gonna get much of that crowd. There was also the assertion that it was gonna cater to the family crowd based on its family-related storyline, but it came off like the family movie assertion was merely a statement by the marketing department, though that assertion affected predictions of professional analysts. Its PG-13 rating was unsuggestive of a family film, he wasn't backed by an ensemble of his buddies he usually puts in, and families these days have went out to the high profile PG-13 comic book movies moreso than any Sandler film, and two of them were in theaters. The end result was a 4-day opening that was even lower than the unadjusted 3-day opening of the first Sandler/Barrymore collaboration The Wedding Singer. Before it opened, other professional analysts made the statement that Sandler still has his fanbase that comes out for his films, but a 14.2M 3-day opening for a film that was targeting all four quadrants has to raise the question of who Sandler's audience and fanbase are these days.

Edited June 13, 2014 by Jay Beezy

[MrFanaticGuy34]

Embarrassing Predictions of 2015:

 

Spectre:

Prediction: $250-270M DOM & $ over $1B WW

Actuals: $199.8M DOM & $880M WW

 

HG: Mockingjay P2:

Predictions: $445-475M DOM & $1B WW (Highest grosser)

Actuals: $281M DOM & $653M WW (Lowest grosser)

 

Ted 2:

Prediction: $215-220M DOM & over $600M WW

Actuals: $81M DOM & $216M WW

 

Peanuts Movie:

Predictions: $215-235M DOM & over $700M WW

Actuals: $130 DOM & $245M WW

 

Predictions of movies that did great but deserved more than what they ended with:

 

Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation:

Predictions: $75-85M OW/ $225-235M DOM/ Over $770-840M WW

Actuals: $55M OW/ $195M DOM/ $682M WW

 

Predictions i was satisfied with:

 

Hotel Transylvania:

Predictions: Over HT1 DOM & WW.

Actuals: Over HT1 DOM & WW.

 

So yeah.....i have my own predictions...that are either for the good or the bad.