CAYOM Y9: Part 2- Predictions

[Rorschach]

I've got them written down but I'll wait until after my class period is over.

[Alpha]

October 4-6

 

Allegiant is the only nationwide release this weekend, and should be big. Although the five-year gap between installments isn't encouraging, it's worth noting Insurgent made $91 million on opening weekend. With no competition, Allegiant should earn around $89-94 million.

 

October 11-13

 

Once again, there's only one nationwide release this weekend, David O. Russell romantic drama Forgotten Sound. Reviews haven't been positive, and honestly it feels like an afterthought amid the other entertainment this season. Plus, releasing a female counter-programming film against Allegiant is a bad decision. It should earn only $14-16 million, meaning Allegiant will take the top spot again.

 

October 18-20

 

Lord of the Flies is, once again, the only nationwide release. It's been getting good reviews, and has some buzz attached to it's lead actors. Plus, the original source material is very well-known. Expect a debut around $27-30 million. Meanwhile, Cybernetic 7 opens at 7 locations ( ) this weekend, and should do great business in limited release. Reviews have been very positive, with a possible Best Picture nomination. Even if it's anime style doesn't connect with mainstream audiences, it should do over a $100,000 per theater average this weekend.

 

October 25-27

 

Three nationwide releases open, and neither of them are gonna do extremely well. An Odd Road Trip is the latest Ben Stiller comedy, but with negative reviews, it won't get anywhere close to Reality Shift from Year 7. Expect only $15-19 million. Silent Invasion 4: The Final Chapter is coming off a predecessor that opened to $4.8 million in Year 8. Even with final chapter status, it's not enough to turn things around. Expect $6-8 million. Cabin Fever is another comedy coming out this weekend, but it's definitely not the kind of break-out hit that'll propel it to good numbers. It should make only $5-7 million. In the limited release circuit, Quentin Tarantino's The Hateful Eight Redux opens in 35mm and 70mm theaters only at 207 locations. With a killer cast and Tarantino's large fanbase, this should definitely be a big player, and could even top some of this weekend's wide releases if it does really well. To play it safe, $4-6 million is my projection.

Edited November 27, 2014 by Alpha

[Rorschach]

October

Allegiant: 85.3/214.4

Forgotten Sound: 11.7/27.4

Lord of the Flies: 26.4/85

Cybernetic 7: Oct. 18-139k/ Nov. 15- 36.7/167.8

Cabin Fever: 9.3/29

An Odd Roadtrip: 21.5/57.5

Silent Invasion 4: The Final Chapter- 10.9/26

The Hateful Eight Redux- Oct. 25- 4.8/ Nov. 1- 48.3/221.5

November

Hellsing: 38.7/119.7

Attack on Titan: 61.4/182.3

WatchDogs: 44.1/105.8

A Midsummer Night's Dream: 21.4/97

A Series of Unfortunate Events: Movie the Fifth: 32.6/108.5

The Beast of Loch Ness: 28.8/82.9

The Special Effects Team 2: 9.5/28.2

The Little Drummer Boy: 24.4/83.4

December

The Battle for Brazil: 13.4/77.3

Suicide is Painless: First few weeks I'm not sure but christmas weekend- 12/65.8

The House of Arteus: 38.9/165.5

Because the Internet: 12.9/32.4

Beauty and the Beast: 92.1/378.1

The Ice Diaries: 16.4/47

The Once and Future King: The Ill-Made Knight: 43.6/182.4

#1 films

Oct. 4-6: Allegiant

Oct. 11-13: Allegiant

Oct. 18-20: Lord of the Flies

Oct. 25-27: An Odd Roadtrip

Nov. 1-3: The Hateful Eight Redux

Nov. 8-10: Attack on Titan

Nov. 15-17: Watchdogs

Nov. 22-24: A Series of Unfortunate Events: Movie the Fifth

Nov. 29-Dec. 1: The Beast of Loch Ness

Dec. 6-8: The Beast of Loch Ness

Dec. 13-15: The House of Atreus

Dec. 20-22: Beauty and the Beast

Dec. 27-29: Beauty and the Beast

Edited December 2, 2014 by Rorschach McMighty

[CJohn]

October

Allegiant: 78.7/220.5
Forgotten Sound: 10.1/23.1
Lord of the Flies: 24.5/86.5
Cybernetic 7: Oct. 18-139k/ Nov. 15- 33.5/117.8
Cabin Fever: 8.5/21.5
An Odd Roadtrip: 20.2/50.7
Silent Invasion 4: The Final Chapter- 8.9/20.1
The Hateful Eight Redux- Oct. 25- 4.8/ Nov. 1- 37.5/135.9

 

November

Hellsing: 17.9/91.6 (I am expecting a huge OD for this one on October 31)
Attack on Titan: 57.5/185.8
WatchDogs: 52.4/138.9
A Midsummer Night's Dream: 20.1/78.5
A Series of Unfortunate Events: Movie the Fifth: 29.5/100.4
The Beast of Loch Ness: 26.5/96.7
The Special Effects Team 2: 8.8/26.5
The Little Drummer Boy: 22.5/85.1

 

December

The Battle for Brazil: 10.4/68.6
The House of Arteus: 32.9/145.3
Because the Internet: 9.3/30.1
Beauty and the Beast: 88.3/400.2
The Ice Diaries: 10.5/41.5
The Once and Future King: The Ill-Made Knight: 47.1/192.1

[rukaio101]

Alright, since we're getting near to when Blank said he would do this, I might as well post my predicts. I've done all three months, so I might as well post them all at once.

 

October 4^th

 

So Allegiant is pretty likely to hit it big. That much is obvious. It’s the climactic finale of a popular trilogy with little competition. And stale reviews tend not to have that much effect on already established and popular YA franchises. So I’m going to bet it opens over $90m. And, quite frankly, the lack of big blockbuster competition until AoT (or possibly Hellsing) might help it get over its initial and inevitable heavy frontloading.

 

Allegiant- $92.3m

 

 

October 11^th

 

Oscar bait with very little actual Oscar capabilities. I can see JL’s starpower drawing a reasonable OW (although Allegiant may put a serious dent in her YA audience) then a serious drop when people figure out it’s really not the kind of film they’re looking for.

 

Forgotten Sound- $16.2m

 

 

October 18^th

 

Lord of the Flies has been getting decent buzz (heheh) and, being a known brand name I expect it to do fairly well. So I expect a strong opening for this.

 

Lord of the Flies- $28.3m

 

 

October 25^th

 

Yeah, most of this isn’t going to do well, thanks to poor reviews and a big November coming up. An Odd Road Trip will probably do the best, but I’m not seeing it opening past $20m. The Silent Invasion series is especially low right now and is likely to be heavily overshadowed in the horror category by the release of Hellsing on Halloween (Note: Hellsing is opening on the 31^st to capitalize on Halloween, but Numbers doesn’t seem to have put it up.). And Cabin Fever is the sort of weak shit that you can usually on to bomb.

 

An Odd Road Trip- $17.4m

Silent Invasion 4- $4.7m

Cabin Fever- $3.8m

[rukaio101]

November 1^st

 

Despite the Wachowski’s less than stellar track record when it comes to the box office, Hellsing should probably do pretty well for itself. Its competition both as a Horror movie and an action movie is pretty weak and it should easily get a good opening. It’ll probably be frontloaded thanks to being a Horror on Halloween and mega blockbuster AoT coming the next week but, if the action is well received it could draw on that and get some decent legs.

 

Hateful Eight Redux, I’m really not sure. Yes it’s a Tarantino movie which tend to do well enough and it doesn’t really clash with Hellsing, but it’s also a massively alienating premise for the GA who aren’t as entrenched in film culture as we are. I suppose it’ll probably do well enough since the similar Neeson/Norris films are big, but I wouldn’t call anything about this film certain.

 

Hellsing- $20.3m/$36.4m

Hateful Eight Redux- $28.6m

 

 

November 8^th

 

Fuck it, I’m shooting optimistically for AoT. I’ve been hyping this up since the year’s beginning and made it clear how important it is that it succeeds, hence you can imagine the marketing campaign will be intense. And it is an original interesting concept that does lend itself very well to marketing, with plenty of juicy effects shots to exploit. In addition, it’s the first big effects-heavy action blockbuster since the Cloud in August (and the only blockbuster period since Allegiant) and has a prime release date with zero competition. People may accuse me of being biased and that may be true, but I really think this has it in it to really break out at the box office.

 

(Also, expect AoT to make absolute killing overseas, especially in Japan. Seriously, I visited Japan last summer and there was AoT stuff everywhere.)

 

Attack on Titan- $87.3m

 

 

November 15^th

 

I’m not entirely sure how Watch Dogs will do. The scarcity of major action blockbusters this quarter as well as being a brand name means I think it’ll probably open well enough, but outside of that I really don’t know how AoT will affect it. In terms of style, the two are incredibly different, but they seem aimed at similar audiences. I could see the two passing each other by with little to no problems or clashing terribly. Either way, poor reviews suggest this’ll be pretty frontloaded.

 

Cybernetic 7 I think will also do relatively well in wide release. My gambit in putting it in limited release seems to have paid off with glowing reviews to build hype and that should help it overcome its unconventionality. Especially since it seems to be a big Oscar player.

 

Watch Dogs- $45.2m

Cybernetic 7- $34.7m

 

 

November 21^st

 

I don’t think either of these films will do very well.

 

A Series of Unfortunate Events is obviously entering franchise fatigue and this latest entry does little to elevate it from that. It may still make a decent enough total from loyal fans but this franchise’s glory days are behind it.

 

As for A Midsummer’s Night Dream, it’s Oscar bait with near zero chance at the actual Oscars. Straight adaptations of lesser known Shakespeare plays don’t tend to interest the GA and tepid reviews will drive away the culture audience it’s aiming for. I’m expecting a flop.

 

A Series of Unfortunate Events- $35.2m

A Midsummer Night’s Dream- $15.3m

 

 

November 27^th

 

I’m not too sure about Beast of Loch Ness. Normally I’d expect C7 and Unfortunate Events to crush it but, with Unfortunate Events likely to underperform and C7 really having very little audience overlap with it (outside of both being animations) this could theoretically make a decent total for itself. It won’t break out, but a mid-30’s opening with decent legs could happen.

 

As for Special Effects Team 2, I really don’t know or care. Around what the first made, whatever that was.

 

Beast of Loch Ness- $35.8m

[rukaio101]

December 6^th

 

The only wide release this week, Battle for Brazil should scrape a decent total. While, like Hateful Eight, it is a somewhat audience alienating premise (although I think I did a better job toning down and explaining the film side), it also has little competition and some serious Oscar buzz which will undoubtedly give it some very strong legs.

 

Battle for Brazil- $15.9m

 

 

December 13th

 

House of Atreus should perform fairly strong. It’s likely to appeal to the same crowd who enjoyed Numbers’s Ancient Rome trilogy and strong reviews and Oscar buzz should only push that further. Low competition should also help.

 

House of Atreus- $59.6m

 

 

December 20^th

 

Expect Beauty and the Beast to absolutely dominate this weekend. Good reviews. Known and beloved brand name. Zero family competition. A known precedent last year with The Little Mermaid overperforming. All in all adds up to a breakout Christmas hit.

 

Ice Diaries may make a decent enough total, but it’s unlikely to break out much between BatB, HoA and OaFK next week.

 

Beauty and the Beast- $93.3m

Ice Diaries- $15.3m

 

 

December 25^th

 

Once and Future King will probably do reasonably well thanks to the low competition, with Beauty skewing slightly below its demographic. House of Atreus may hurt it but I doubt it. The fact that it’s the first action blockbuster since Watch Dogs certainly won’t hurt.

 

Suicide is Painless will probably do alright. It’s opening too small to see a really smash OW but buzz has been good and it has some real Oscar chances so I think it’ll do well. Expect good legs.

 

Once and Future King: The Ill-made Knight- $20.3/55.6m

Suicide is Painless- $3.8/10.3m

[CJohn]

Can you guys please not kill my new franchise? Just please. Especially because I was "forced" to release it on this Quarter instead of on Year 10.

[rukaio101]

Can you guys please not kill my new franchise? Just please. Especially because I was "forced" to release it on this Quarter instead of on Year 10.

A $45m OW is hardly 'killing it'.

[cookie]

October 4-6

 

Allegiant: 92.59m

 

 

October 11-13

 

Forgotten Sound: 13.62m

 

 

October 18-20

 

Lord of the Flies: 25.28m

 

 

October 25-27

 

An Odd Road Trip: 15.50m

Silent Invasion 4 - The Final Chapter: 8.04m

Cabin Fever: 3.48m

 

 

November 1-3:

 

Hellsing: 20.37m / 35.78m

Hateful Eight Redux: 30.67m

 

 

November 8-10:

 

Attack on Titan: 63.41m

 

 

November 15-17:

 

Watch_Dogs: 50.44m

Cybernetic 7: 35.21m

 

 

November 21-23:

 

A Series of Unfortunate Events - Movie The Fifth: 40.19m (I can see this doing better than most predict due to being the first family film in a long time even with franchise fatigue)

A Midsummer Night's Dream: 16.52m

 

 

November 27-29:

 

The Beast of Loch Ness: 33.52m

Special Effects Team 2: 9.02m

The Little Drummer Boy: 23.74m

 

 

December 6-8:

 

Battle for Brazil: 9.65m (Even with strong oscar buzz I don't see this being appealing enough to have a bigger OW, especially since it opens in the post-thanksgiving dead zone, but it should have excellent holds)

 

 

December 13-15:

 

The House of Atreus: 46.62m

 

 

December 20-22:

 

Beauty & The Beast: 88.52m

Ice Diaries: 15.09m

 

 

December 27-29:

 

Once and Future King - The Ill-Made Knight: 45.52m/70.13m

Suicide is Painless: 5.60m / 10.37m

Edited December 2, 2014 by C00k13

[Rorschach]

But Ruk...Nicolas Cage and David Hernie together could make a $103.8 million opening weekend .

Ah, I really don't care. I'm pretty much going to be satisfied in the end either way.

[Rorschach]

Also, ouch for Hateful Eight. I hope it at least holds well like Interstellar so it doesn't bomb HARD.

[Bastien]

October :

Allegiant: 79,5m$ / 205m$ 
Forgotten Sound: 16m$ / 39m$
Lord of the Flies: 21m$ / 78m$
Cybernetic 7: 225k / 35m$ / 115m$ 

Cabin Fever: 5m$ / 12m$
An Odd Roadtrip: 21m$ / 65m$
Silent Invasion 4: The Final Chapter: 4,9m$ / 8,9m$
The Hateful Eight Redux: 3,6m$ / 42m$ / 155m$

November

Hellsing: 
Attack on Titan: 78m$ / 188m$
WatchDogs: 75m$ / 162m$
A Midsummer Night's Dream: 14m$ / 56m$
A Series of Unfortunate Events: Movie the Fifth: 36.4m$ / 120m$
The Beast of Loch Ness: 26m$ / 95m$
The Special Effects Team 2: 11.5m$ / 25m$
The Little Drummer Boy: 23m$ /  76m$

December

The Battle for Brazil: 8.5m$ / 67m$
Suicide is Painless: 4m$ (5 days : 7,5m$) / 68m$
The House of Arteus: 45m$ / 185m$
Because the Internet: ???
Beauty and the Beast: 103m$ / 407m$
The Ice Diaries: 20m$ / 55m$
The Once and Future King: The Ill-Made Knight: 36m$ / 178m$

Edited December 2, 2014 by Neity

[Rorschach]

Can you guys please not kill my new franchise? Just please. Especially because I was "forced" to release it on this Quarter instead of on Year 10.

I'm sure it'll be okay. 45 is a pretty good number anyway.