YEAR 9 - Predictions v Actuals: Dawn of Totals (Actuals Thread)

[Blankments]

Yeah. .. quarter 2 is gonna be a nightmare for everybodyWell except onefilm, provided Numbers gives a great product

[rukaio101]

Oh joy.

 

Honestly though I think, considering the more average performances at the end of March, the Box Office will probably be able to right itself in time for May. April is going to be an absolute black hole though. The only film I think with a real chance of success (except Last Six) is Me & My Shadow. Even Norris/Neeson I think are going to take a massive hit, especially after Numbers Theory.

[rukaio101]

Blank, this is just kind of a suggestion but, for the next few quarters, if you're going to do a surprise hit/flop, maybe you should try and keep the OW within $15mil of the highest/lowest prediction (discounting major outliers). Because, while it's nice to have a surprise every so often, you did kinda go overboard here.

[Blankments]

I understand. My plan is to adjust my algorithm (yes, I have an algorithm for these actuals; your predictions do matter) to make it more negative for Q2 and then ultimately adjust it's more even in Q3 and Q4. I know I went overboard, but hey, it's fun?

[Ezen Baklattan]

Train 38 will struggle, and TC is going mainly for prestige. I'm not worried.

[Rorschach]

That Joestars second weekend number is one in a million. I've seen blockbusters with better reviews that dropped worse than it.

[Rorschach]

For he's a jolly good fellow, for he's a jolly good fellow, for he's a jolly good fellow! Which no one can't deny!Happy Birthday Blank!

Edited July 3, 2014 by Totheark

[Blankments]

For he's a jolly good fellow, for he's a jolly good fellow, for he's a jolly good fellow! Which no one can't deny!Happy Birthday Blank!

Thanks!

[Blankments]

PTAs for Q1:

 

Island of Dreams - 54,527

Numbers Theory - 20,992

Teen Titans (4-Day) - 19,946 

Teen Titans - 17,256

Legacy of the Joestars: Phantom Blood - 16,602

Island of Dreams (week 2) - 15,476

Walking Alone - 15,045

The Tudors (5-Day) - 12,651

Among the Imposters (4-Day) - 12,029

The Red Pyramid - 11,548

Skyjumper - 11,537

The Tudors (4-Day) - 11,373

Black Cat - 10,389

Our Future - 10,384

Among the Imposters - 9,790

Samara - 9,594

Dystopia, USA (4-Day) - 9,419

Island of Dreams (week 3) - 8,737

Island of Dreams (week 4) - 8,387

Tortoise Run - 8,383

The Tudors - 8,224

Dystopia, USA - 8,124

Conventionally Wiser - 7,930

Where You Imagine - 6,983

Alice in Horrorland - 6,814

The Best of You (5-Day) - 6,605

If - 6,225

The Cave (4-Day) - 6,012

The Best of You (4-Day) - 5,954

The Cave - 5,377

The Last Six 3D - 5,207

The Best of You - 5,155

The Thin, the Fat, and the Felon - 4,869

Sweet Disposition - 4,698

Ice Desert - 4,605

Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney – Part 1 - 4,259

Slenderman: The Search - 4,024

Change of Heart - 3,037

Peace at Last - 2,918

Ship of Lies - 2,807

The Tudors (2nd week) - 2,453

Island of Dreams (week 5) - 2,239

Childhood Ruined 2 - 1,417

Mine - 984

 

[Blankments]

SHIT JUST REMEMBER I OWE YOU THESE.

 

BRB, typing them up

[Blankments]

April 5-7

 

Chuck Norris and Liam Neeson returned to fight the box office for the sixth time, and it’s the biggest yet! Thanks to the shorter runtime and longer wait between installments, the sixth Chuck Norris and Liam Neeson broke the franchise record. One wonders just how huge it could’ve been in a less saturated market. Also, one might wonder just how long it’ll be until the box office starts crashing down; the sheer hits of everything is getting odd. Meanwhile, I Am Malala opened in fourth place with a respectable 9.8M.

 

1. Chuck Norris and Liam Neeson vs. the Underworld - 69,155,714 (NEW)

2. Our Future - 15,688,806 (WEEK 2)

3. The Red Pyramid - 13,106,032 (WEEK 3)

4. I Am Malala - 9,853,602 (NEW)

5. Legacy of the Joestars: Phantom Blood - 9,464,323 (WEEK 6)

6. If - 5,856,987 (WEEK 6)

7. Peace at Last - 5,564,438 (WEEK 3)

8. The Thin, the Fat, and the Felon - 4,989,390 (WEEK 4)

9. Black Cat - 4,286,240 (WEEK 4)

10. Where You Imagine - 2,438,612 (WEEK 5)

11. Conventionally Wiser - 2,355,455 (WEEK 5)

12. Island of Dreams - 1,652,901 (WEEK 6)

 

April 12-14

 

Me and My Shadow opened on the smaller end of projections with 42.4M. The film had a poorly focused marketing effort, but still managed to the biggest animation opening of the year so far. It seems to have good word of mouth, so it should hold well for future weeks. Following Chuck and Liam, Polybius was a massive disappointment with a sub-10M opening. Not many people like it either, so it shouldn’t be around that long.

 

1. Me and My Shadow - 42,445,714 (NEW)

2. Chuck Norris and Liam Neeson vs. the Underworld - 24,965,213 (WEEK 2)

3. Polybius - 9,324,286 (NEW)

4. The Red Pyramid - 6,815,137 (WEEK 4)

5. Our Future - 6,432,410 (WEEK 3)

6. I Am Malala - 4,828,265 (WEEK 2)

7. Legacy of the Joestars: Phantom Blood - 3,880,372 (WEEK 7)

8. If - 3,689,902 (WEEK 7)

9. Peace at Last - 3,505,596 (WEEK 4)

10. The Thin, the Fat, and the Felon - 3,292,997 (WEEK 5)

11. Black Cat - 1,500,184 (WEEK 5)

12. Where You Imagine - 999,831 (WEEK 6)

 

April 19-21

 

The name of this weekend is “Disappointment.” Me and My Shadow surprisingly retained the top spot. Most analysts were expecting The Fifth Wave to take #1, but with its unconventional narrative choices, it disappointed with less than 22M. It shouldn’t hold up well at all with other more anticipated movies such as Last Six and Overdrive opening the next few weeks. Chuck and Liam were in third, followed by three new movies. Portentous Dealings, Horror House 2, and MST3K: Thomas the Tank Engine all opened at the lower end of expectations at 4, 5, 6 respectively.

 

1. Me and My Shadow - 28,481,074 (WEEK 2)

2. The Fifth Wave - 21,938,393 (NEW)

3. Chuck Norris and Liam Neeson vs. the Underworld - 13,930,589 (WEEK 3)

4. Portentous Dealings - 12,876,468 (NEW)

5. Horror House 2 - 7,421,754 (NEW)

6. MST3K: Thomas the Tank Engine - 4,473,717 (NEW)

7. The Red Pyramid - 3,134,963 (WEEK 5)

8. Our Future - 3,023,233 (WEEK 4)

9. If - 2,767,427 (WEEK 8)

10. Polybius - 2,582,827 (WEEK 2)

11. Peace at Last - 2,453,917 (WEEK 5)

12. I Am Malala - 2,293,426 (WEEK 3)

 

April 26-28

 

Dawn of the Last Six is the first big budget disappointment of the year, opening below the original’s opening weekend. The four year gap and recent box office slump is most likely to blame for it. One might expect legs to be better, as reviews are notably improved on the first movie. Meanwhile, Me and My Shadow crossed 100M, The Fifth Wave had a bad drop, and Chuck Norris and Liam Neeson crossed 150M. Just a disappointing weekend.

 

1. Dawn of the Last Six - 67,621,693 (NEW)

2. Me and My Shadow - 16,006,363 (WEEK 3)

3. The Fifth Wave - 10,530,429 (WEEK 2)

4. Chuck Norris and Liam Neeson vs. the Underworld - 6,798,127 (WEEK 4)

5. Portentous Dealings - 4,777,170 (WEEK 2)

6. Horror House 2 - 2,790,580 (WEEK 2)

7. MST3K: Thomas the Tank Engine - 2,433,702 (WEEK 2)

8. The Red Pyramid - 2,037,726 (WEEK 6)

9. Peace at Last - 1,791,359 (WEEK 6)

10. I Am Malala - 1,621,452 (WEEK 4)

11. The Thin, the Fat, and the Felon - 1,493,704 (WEEK 7)

12. Polybius - 1,319,825 (WEEK 3)

[Alpha]

Edited August 2, 2014 by Alpha

[Ezen Baklattan]

Me & My Shadow will gross around $155,408,434. Sounds pretty good to me!

[4815162342]

Those Malala numbers are way off Blank. It's a prestige documentary about issues the intellectual crowd eats up. It'd have opened lower and had substantially better legs.

[Alpha]

Those Malala numbers are way off Blank. It's a prestige documentary about issues the intellectual crowd eats up. It'd have opened lower and had substantially better legs.

 

The fact it grossed Polybius shows how off the actuals are from predictions this year.

[Blankments]

Those Malala numbers are way off Blank. It's a prestige documentary about issues the intellectual crowd eats up. It'd have opened lower and had substantially better legs.

Hm?

 

I just remember liking the movie and then seeing Rorschach and others comment that they remember the story happening. Thought that made it mainstream...

[Blankments]

The fact it grossed Polybius shows how off the actuals are from predictions this year.

It's funny, because I have an algorithm that actually takes predictions into account

[Alpha]

It's funny, because I have an algorithm that actually takes predictions into account

 

I want to know the algorithm, because whatever it is, it's really screwy. 

[4815162342]

Hm?

 

I just remember liking the movie and then seeing Rorschach and others comment that they remember the story happening. Thought that made it mainstream...

 

You probably should take another look at it then. It's an Oscar-bait kind of documentary.

[Blankments]

I want to know the algorithm, because whatever it is, it's really screwy. 

I can reveal it post-all-actuals. Not gonna say it now because then actuals will be dull

 

 

You probably should take another look at it then. It's an Oscar-bait kind of documentary.

I think I will before my ballot. I guess I made a mistake, but I don't believe in correcting the actuals