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Noctis

Friday Estimates: SH2 $15m, Alv $8m, MI4 $4m

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So when did eevryone die? They all died but when? Same time, individually? Catholic propaganda anyway you slice it.

They all died individually (some onscreen, some later after leaving the island) and met in limbo where time was irrelevant. The religious allusions definitely put me off the show as it got into the final year. They weren't subtle. Edited by Hatebox
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So when did eevryone die? They all died but when? Same time, individually?

Everyone died at different times. I assume when the last person died, probably Hurley, that the 'limbo' started. Everyone thought those flashes were an alternate timeline that Juliet started when she hit the bomb but it was the point in which all the characters had died. And they had to live their lives post 815 again to 'undo' all the wrongs they did on the island, like how Ben mentions he's not ready to move on when all the others are.
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What a terrible weekend by the way.I expected SH2 to drop but not by 20m+ and Alvin also dropped 10m more than I was expecting, but in the latter, finally.Holdovers were terrible. Weak openings, holidays and STILL they drop awfully? God, what depressing numbers.AC is going to die after Christmas and the last weekend before it gets a -41% Friday drop? Shouldn't it be increasing? Christ. Pathetic.Hugo seems to have also petered out, as expected as BD and Muppets are performing in my eyes, still, it's not like SH2/MI/Alvin overlap on the former's audience and the latter should have held better given that Alvin didn't even crack 7m.Won't comment on the harsher declines for the rest because they did lose theatres and it's precedent for them to drop precipitously come this weekend when they've held out for so long because of staleness and loss of theatres. Just utterly, utterly disappointed in the box office.

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Anyone remembers 2008, when "The day the earth stood still", "Seven Pounds" and "Yes Man" all openend very soft and we got some great openings over Christmas with "Marley & Me", "Bedtime Stories", "Benjamin Button" and "Valkyrie"? I have the feeling something similar will happen this year. We have "MI4", which could do up to 200Mio, we have some big feelgood-wildcards with "War Horse" and "We bought a Zoo" (and i expect at least one of them to break out to over 150Mio, maybe both), we've got "The Girl with the Daragon Tattoo" which should manage to reach 125Mio and then there's still "TinTin", which may surprise.I'm far from writing off Christmas season yet, cause there's so much more to come."Sherlock Holmes" and "Alvin 2" openend one week after "Avatar" in 2009, and i still believe, that "Avatar" managed to create a general cinema-hype and both movies benefited from that.Well, and i believe 3D-Cinema hurt family movies in general. After the big 3D-Hype was over, less and less people were willing to pay those prices. I mean, there are cities and cinemas you spend 100 Dollars and more including soft drinks and snacks, you just cant afford that once a week with your family. The extra surcharge may even out the loss of visitors in the beginning, but then we get to the point i will never understand the strategies of cinemas and studios. For me it's so much more worth to have earned $1000 with 100 people in the audience, than earning $1000 with 50 visitors. People watch trailers, people get that special cinema experience with a big crowd you'll never get at home, people may spread word of mouth etc.It's just important to get people back to watch movies in theater. Special Filmfestival-Weeks with discount prices, no more 3d surcharge, parents paying children prices and so on.Where did i start? Right, Friday Numbers. Yeah, sorry for that off-topic part. ;)

Edited by Poseidon
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Anyone remembers 2008, when "The day the earth stood still", "Seven Pounds" and "Yes Man" all openend very soft and we got some great openings over Christmas with "Marley & Me", "Bedtime Stories", "Benjamin Button" and "Valkyrie"? I have the feeling something similar will happen this year. We have "MI4", which could so up to 200Mio, we have some big feelgood-wildcards with "War Horse" and "We bought a Zoo" (and i expect at least one of them to break out to over 150Mio, maybe both), we've got "The Girl with the Daragon Tattoo" which should manage to reach 125Mio and then there's still "TinTin", which may surprise.I'm far from writing off Christmas season yet, cause there's so much more to come."Sherlock Holmes" and "Alvin 2" openend one week after "Avatar" in 2009, and i still believe, that "Avatar" managed to create a general cinema-hype and both movies benefited from that.Well, and i believe 3D-Cinema hurt family movies in general. After the big 3D-Hype was over, less and less people were willing to pay those prices. I mean, there are cities and cinemas you spend 100 Dollars and more including soft drinks and snacks, you just cant afford that once a week with your family. The extra surcharge may even out the loss of visitors in the beginning but then we get to the point i will never understand the strategies of cinemas and studios. For me it's so much more worth to have earned $1000 with 100 people in the audience, that earning $1000 with 50 visitors. People watch trailers, people get that special cinema experience with a big crowd you'll never get at home, people may spread word of mouth etc.It's just important to get people back to watch movies in theater. Special Filmfestival-Weeks with discount prices, no more 3d surcharge, parents paying children prices and so on.Where did i start? Right, Friday Numbers. Yeah, sorry for that off-topic part. ;)

Great point.
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Anyone remembers 2008, when "The day the earth stood still", "Seven Pounds" and "Yes Man" all openend very soft and we got some great openings over Christmas with "Marley & Me", "Bedtime Stories", "Benjamin Button" and "Valkyrie"? I have the feeling something similar will happen this year. We have "MI4", which could so up to 200Mio, we have some big feelgood-wildcards with "War Horse" and "We bought a Zoo" (and i expect at least one of them to break out to over 150Mio, maybe both), we've got "The Girl with the Daragon Tattoo" which should manage to reach 125Mio and then there's still "TinTin", which may surprise. I'm far from writing off Christmas season yet, cause there's so much more to come. "Sherlock Holmes" and "Alvin 2" openend one week after "Avatar" in 2009, and i still believe, that "Avatar" managed to create a general cinema-hype and both movies benefited from that. Well, and i believe 3D-Cinema hurt family movies in general. After the big 3D-Hype was over, less and less people were willing to pay those prices. I mean, there are cities and cinemas you spend 100 Dollars and more including soft drinks and snacks, you just cant afford that once a week with your family. The extra surcharge may even out the loss of visitors in the beginning but then we get to the point i will never understand the strategies of cinemas and studios. For me it's so much more worth to have earned $1000 with 100 people in the audience, that earning $1000 with 50 visitors. People watch trailers, people get that special cinema experience with a big crowd you'll never get at home, people may spread word of mouth etc. It's just important to get people back to watch movies in theater. Special Filmfestival-Weeks with discount prices, no more 3d surcharge, parents paying children prices and so on. Where did i start? Right, Friday Numbers. Yeah, sorry for that off-topic part. ;)

I like your optimism. :)
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I hope some good WOM spreads on SH2. Just got back from seeing it and I thought it was great. It was better than the first. The sequence where they're running thought the woods was fantastic. I loved the way it was shot. The audience seemed to be into it and they laughed in all the right spots.

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It's going to be a strong Xmas. Four films locked for 100m. Maybe all will pass 150m. And you have MI4 that will pass 200m and Tintin might do that, too. Sherlock and Alvin didn't deserve to be 200m films, so I'm glad they decreased.

Way too early to say that.
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Wow, just got a chance to look at updated estimates. Sad to see that SH2 and Alvin have gone down yet againBased on Friday, SH2 is looking at a $38-40 million weekend. I'm tracking this against National Treasure 2, and at this point, it's on pace for $183 million. I think $175-195 is where this lands, with good WOM suggesting it hits the high end.Alvin 3, following Alvin 1's drops, is looking at a $22.7 million weekend. Following its legs from there, it's on pace for $111 milion

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