The Great Box Office Recession? -- Discussing the Up & Down Trends of the Box Office Market

[Shawn Robbins]

I had a thread like this over at Mojo before it shut down, and I'm sad to say I lost all of the data I had compiled for it (as well as that which everyone else contributed).Considering the performance of the box office over the last few months, and the supposed "winter tentpole" of Holmes 2 now disappointing so far this weekend...it seems apropos to bring this back.I'll probably be tying in some main site articles to this topic. Its definitely a subject I have a lot of interest in and passion for. Just want to kick-start the discussion.

[Hiccup]

So I guess unlike the summer were some major films: Hangover 2, Transformers 3, and Harry Potter Part 2 were immune to the depression it is quit clear that this isn't the case for the 2011 holiday season. I think the depression has gotten worse and should really hurt films throughout spring and summer of 2012. Nothing is safe from this depression. The only film that could be a for sure safe next year is The Dark Knight Rises. I wouldn't say that the Hobbit is safe. Audiences might not return to the Peter Jackson fantasy films and I could easily see it disappointing.

[John Marston]

The Hobbit will not underperform. There are more Tolkien fans than HP or Twilight so if those movies did very well then the Hobbit is going to do great

[Gopher]

I'd like to say there's some established principle that would explain why the box office has gone to shit, but I don't really know. At the end of the day, it may be specific to the movie. No one loved Sherlock Holmes or Valentine's Day or the Squeakquel, so their sequels would drop off precipitously. But that rule doesn't really carry over to MI4 or other movies. I think it's just fatigue of the theater experience (high ticket/parking/concession prices), particularly with families, which not only fuel kiddie movies but the biggest tentpoles, too. For the first time in nine years, no family movie will reach 200m domestic. Last year, six family movies made 200m. That's big. And all 3D is doing right now is hiding how bad admissions for tentpole kidpics really are. Having said that, barring some kind of economic collapse, I think Avengers, TDKR, and The Hobbit are all safe. Those define 'must-see' movies.

[CJohn]

The Avengers, TDKR and TH will be hits.But something like GI Joe 2, Wrath of the Titans, Ghost Rider 2 or John Carter is in a lot of troubles right now!

[fmpro]

I agree with cjohn...

[John Marston]

Yes, also Hunger Games might not break out out of its fanbase

[DAR]

For me personally going to the movies just isn't that big of a deal. The majority of movies that come out I'd rather watch at home. Of course there are exceptions, but this year I think I spent maybe 30 dollars going to the movies.

[bapi]

The Avengers, TDKR and TH will be hits.But something like GI Joe 2, Wrath of the Titans, Ghost Rider 2 or John Carter is in a lot of troubles right now!

Yeah. But there are some other movies - reboots like Total Recall with Colin Farrell and The Bourne Legacy without Matt Damon. And I don't even mention Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter or fantasy movies like Snow White or Jack the Giant Killer. But hopefully The Amazing Spider-Man is safe.

[DAR]

It's interesting that those movies are brought up. The big three next year, those I have to see at the theater. But GI Joe 2? What's the urge to see it right away. I liked the trailer but I can certainly wait.

[ddddeeee]

The Avengers, TDKR and TH will be hits.But something like GI Joe 2, Wrath of the Titans, Ghost Rider 2 or John Carter is in a lot of troubles right now!

Those four would be still be in danger in a good climate.

[DAR]

Of course one way to counter the box office recession is to make better movies.

[MovieGuyKyle16]

Well I usually go to the movies every week because there is nothing to do in my town (except go get drunk which I dont drink) and I love going to the movies because its a nice escape.

[lab276]

Of course one way to counter the box office recession is to make better movies.

Oh please. Every year has it's ups and downs. The movies this year as good as last year's which were as good as the previous year's years which were as good as 2002's.

[baumer]

The overall state of the box office, imo, has two things worth noting. The first is the myth that Hollywood and movies in general are basically immune from depressions. They suffered like every other business did in the 30's, Entertainment wasn't immune to the failing economy during the Great Depression. Studios had to slash their prices to get butts into the seats back in the early 30's. With all the different formats to watch a movie today– Blu-Ray, Video On Demand, DVD, Netflix, not to mention how fast films go on tv now, plus illegal downloading, the theaters are at a distinct disadvantage. They have to cutr ticket prices imo. I'm not sure by how much, but I have read that people say $50.00 for a family of four is too much and it is.I also think Hollywood is completely clueless as to what people want to see. Films are basically recylced now. Go and count the amount of remakes that are coming out. And how many of those really do well? Sure there are films like Footloose that might make 30-40-50 million dollars, but how many Hollywood remakes really hit it big? With the economy being shitty, I don't think peopel weant to pay to see something that they have on DVD. I think I fall into this category. I usually see 100 films at the theater every year, but this year I have cut down by about 35%. There just isn;t that much that interests me.I know it can never go back to the days where films built WOM by a staggered release, but maybe they could try it. Don't bite my head off for this as I know it is a complete and utter dichotomy in Hollywood ethos to do something like that, but whatever they are doing now doesn't seem to be working. You'll always have your TDK's and Potters and such but they are so few and far between now.The problem is studios are run by billionaires and they employ millionaires to star and create their movies. I don't know about you guys, but let's say your household (just throwing a number out there) makes $100,000 before taxes. After taxes you take him say $65,000 a year. If you break that down into a month, that means you are about $5000.00 a month. This is all based on a family of four:Mortgage: $1000.00 a monthFood: $500.00 a monthGas/insurance and maintenace: $1000.00Heat/hydro/phone/cable/internent: $600.00Other shit: $500.00This is just a rough estimate of course. But even before you see a penny to yourself, you have spent $3600.00 of your $5000.00 you make. Now if you want to take your family to see one movie a month, it's not just $50.00, it's closer to $100.00. That's a hell of a lot of money, about 7% of the money you have left over, just on a movie? That's a hard thing to justify and it's why film makers will continue making films that target young males who have disposable income. They will do this because they have no bills, they have no responsibilities. And then they wonder why piracy is up. I can walk over to the local Chinese mall about 5 minutes from here and I can buy BD1, Drive, New Year's Eve and so on. I remember a quote from Kid Rock that went something like this:"I hear people talk all the time about how we as artists make too much money and that CD's are too expensive and that is why they download them illegally. Well, I think gas is too expensive and you don't see me driving off with gas now do you?"Here's the thing, if people knew they could get away with it, there was absolutely no way for you to get caught, then people would steal gas. People download because its from the privacy of their own homes and no one sees it.I think the movie industry has to lower the costs of going to a movie. It is a start. Something has to be done, they could start with that.I know you can probably poke holes in this entire rant and to be honest, it's not a well thought out rant, it's just a rant. But the idea behind it is that something has to change.

[CJohn]

People are becoming very rude in theaters. I always have someone talking and ruining the movie when I go the movies. I almost gave up a couple of weeks ago when a group of young girls were screaming during Puss in Boots. That was 2 weeks ago. The last time I was 2 weeks without going to the theaters was almost 2 years ago because I was very sick. I returned to theaters yesterday to see New Years Eve. A group of ladys were also talking during the movie. And I spent 10€ for that shit? I don't care anymore.And everything Baumer said is also true. I totally agree.

[Hatebox]

People are becoming very rude in theaters.

This sounds trivial but I actually think it's a very real problem that puts off a lot of adults going to movies these days.

[redfirebird2008]

Baumer, there is a ton of truth in your post. I think the biggest problem is a combination of high prices and unoriginal content. People will pay the high prices if it's something they really want to see. But if it's just some rehashed stuff, they'll wait to rent. Especially when you can rent movies for $1.

[lab276]

People never talk in the movies I see.

[John Marston]

Ticket sales in general are going down. For example, Rise of the Planet of the Apes sold 22M tickets, which is pretty good, but it is the same amount that a movie like Anger Management sold in 2003. Or the original Scream in 1996.