The Great Box Office Recession? -- Discussing the Up & Down Trends of the Box Office Market

[Kvikk Lunsj]

The reason why the others are underperforming is because of the THE AVENGERS.

Not really Battleship and Dark Shadows would never broke out.

[Shawn Robbins]

Reviews will make or break SWATH. Women have Rock of Ages to choose over it, which is already generating solid buzz.

[Kvikk Lunsj]

Reviews will make or break SWATH. Women have Rock of Ages to choose over it, which is already generating solid buzz.

agreed if it SWATH gets bad reviews the quality of summer 2012 is not off to a good start.

[kayumanggi]

Not really Battleship and Dark Shadows would never broke out.

But maybe not underperforming the way they are doing now. Plus I think releasing BATTLESHIP overseas more than a month ahead of its domestic release is a factor too. Might have been downloaded many times now.

[Kvikk Lunsj]

But maybe not underperforming the way they are doing now. Plus I think releasing BATTLESHIP overseas more than a month ahead of its domestic release is a factor too. Might have been downloaded many times now.

Without Avengers Battleship may have opened to 35m and might have crossed 100m. I never heard anybody say anything positive about Battleship. Same with Dark Shadows.

[kayumanggi]

Without Avengers Battleship may have opened to 35m and might have crossed 100m. I never heard anybody say anything positive about Battleship. Same with Dark Shadows.

I've seen the film. It's fun. Won't say it's terrible, I've seen worse.

[TLK]

Reviews will make or break SWATH. Women have Rock of Ages to choose over it, which is already generating solid buzz.

Rock of Ages is a musical about rock and roll. It is the worst of both worlds as guys don't like musicals and women viewers tend to avoid rock and roll themed movies. Snow White should open to 40 million+ because of teens, younger women and the buzz associated with it. Bad WOM means it won't make much above 100 million but for the Rock of Ages nothing in excess of 20 million opening is guaranteed.

[TLK]

I wasn't referring to their BO prospects with that, though, both being "original" means bad reviews will hurt them. Snow White has no fanbase. Who do you think's going to turn up? The kids who saw it on DVD? Men in Black 3 has never been review-proof, not from the start and certainly not now. It reflects the draining of the well and then some which audiences have rejected more oft than not of late. Nothing shocking? How many times do you want to pull this stupid card? WTEWYE being female skewing rom-com was supposed to do better. Battleship having a 9M OD is much worse than originally thought and the Dictator was certainly not going to struggle as badly as it has been doing. I'm not saying the recession is back, since I'm not sure it went away, but like I said Avengers can't make up for everything and it's already beginning to show. 60% drops for other holdovers with a combined OD of $18m? Awful.

Of course, Snow White has a fanbase. How else do you think Mirror Mirror made over 160 million worldiwde? I am sure that Julia Roberts helped the movie but it doesn't explain how a Godawful Fairytale movie like Red Riding Hood made 90 million worldwide. According to BO.com , Snow White has 759k Facebook fans while TA had about a million at this point in its release schedule. That number may not mean much in terms of Box Office but it demonstrates that there is a non-trivial fanbase backing the movie.Men In Black 3 has Will Smith. When was the last time Smith had a bomb? He took a dark, depressing movie about a suicidal man and led it to 70 million dollars over Christmas holidays. Name another actor who can do this. Until proven otherwise, I have no reason to underestimate Will Smith at the Box Office.

[kyky]

Men In Black 3 has Will Smith. When was the last time Smith had a bomb? He took a dark, depressing movie about a suicidal man and led it to 70 million dollars over Christmas holidays. Name another actor who can do this. Until proven otherwise, I have no reason to underestimate Will Smith at the Box Office.

but what about johnny depp? DS disappointed last weekend. names mean nothing if the movie is not appealing

[TLK]

but what about johnny depp? DS disappointed last weekend. names mean nothing if the movie is not appealing

True to an extent but Johnny Depp doesn't really have Will Smith's track record. I can see Men In Black 3 bombing but I don't think it is likely. I think more likely scenario is MIB3 under-performing all these 90 million 4-day expectations.

[Shawn Robbins]

Rock of Ages is a musical about rock and roll. It is the worst of both worlds as guys don't like musicals and women viewers tend to avoid rock and roll themed movies. Snow White should open to 40 million+ because of teens, younger women and the buzz associated with it. Bad WOM means it won't make much above 100 million but for the Rock of Ages nothing in excess of 20 million opening is guaranteed.

That's...very inaccurate. Who do you think helped turn the play the movie is based on into such a successful show?

If SWATH is poorly received and RoA lives up to the great early buzz its had, I'll pretty much guarantee that RoA outgrosses it in the end. Honestly, even if SWATH *is* well-received it could be a very close finish.

[kyky]

That's...very inaccurate. Who do you think helped turn the play the movie is based on into such a successful show?

If SWATH is poorly received and RoA lives up to the great early buzz its had, I'll pretty much guarantee that RoA outgrosses it in the end. Honestly, even if SWATH *is* well-received it could be a very close finish.

but many successful plays flopped when they were made into movies. it's no guarantee. what great early buzz? on RT more people are interested in That's My Boy oh and it's also tracking better on boxofficebuzz.com Edited May 20, 2012 by kyky

[TLK]

^^^^ I agree with kyky. Most plays just don't do well when adapted to movies. Secondly, making a killing on the Broadway in New York doesn't really guarantee that the movie will do equally well Nationally or Internationally. To be fair, the movie does have Tom Cruise so it should do better in theory but there are no guarantees. I won't be surprised if That's My Boy easily wins the weekend over RoA.

[Shawn Robbins]

but many successful plays flopped when they were made into movies. it's no guarantee. what great early buzz? on RT more people are interested in That's My Boy oh and it's also tracking better on boxofficebuzz.com

1) Sure, successful plays have flopped as movies. Each movie is different. How do you explain Hairspray and Mamma Mia!? RoA has a lot more in common with those.

2) Reception at CinemaCon was strong and early word we've heard is that the film delivers for all audiences. Its tracking *very* well so far.

3) What higher relevance does Boxoffice Buzz have? They don't have any more clout than Boxoffice does, and our tracking/forecast favors RoA.

[Shawn Robbins]

I won't be surprised if That's My Boy easily wins the weekend over RoA.

Winning the weekend is meaningless. Sandler has a fan base, of course he has decent odds of opening at number one. Zohan opened at number one for crying out loud, and Mamma Mia! ended up out-grossing it later in the summer too.RoA will almost undoubtedly out-perform TMB in the long run if each meet the current expectations behind them. Edited May 20, 2012 by ShawnMR

[CJohn]

Winning the weekend is meaningless. Sandler has a fan base, of course he has decent odds of opening at number one. Zohan opened at number one for crying out loud, and Mamma Mia! ended up out-grossing it later in the summer too.

RoA will almost undoubtedly out-perform TMB in the long run if each meet the current expectations behind them.

Are you sure about that ?

http://boxofficemojo...&wknd=23&p=.htm

Zohan was hilarious btw

Edited May 20, 2012 by CJohn

[MovieMan89]

Reviews will make or break SWATH. Women have Rock of Ages to choose over it, which is already generating solid buzz.

Highly doubtful. Young females care the least about reviews possibly of any demo out there and that's SWATH's biggest demo right now. SWATH will have a big OW with or without critical acclaim. Legs are a different story, but it won't fail based on its OW alone.

[Warhorse]

I wasn't referring to their BO prospects with that, though, both being "original" means bad reviews will hurt them. Snow White has no fanbase. Who do you think's going to turn up? The kids who saw it on DVD? Men in Black 3 has never been review-proof, not from the start and certainly not now. It reflects the draining of the well and then some which audiences have rejected more oft than not of late. Nothing shocking? How many times do you want to pull this stupid card? WTEWYE being female skewing rom-com was supposed to do better. Battleship having a 9M OD is much worse than originally thought and the Dictator was certainly not going to struggle as badly as it has been doing. I'm not saying the recession is back, since I'm not sure it went away, but like I said Avengers can't make up for everything and it's already beginning to show. 60% drops for other holdovers with a combined OD of $18m? Awful.Let's not be stupid. Why didn't they flock to see him in Cabin in the Woods? As if anyone even sees Hemsworth as a star yet. Guys flocking to see Charlize Theron? What do you have? Stock in the movie? The only reason everyone was suddenly excited about if after all the trash talking was because it looked epic, different and actually good not some cheesy, half-rate mess. If it is, it won't go down well. Great WOM could have taken it to $200m, shit WOM can make it gross $120m or less.

Let's not be stupid here. Cabin in the Woods wasn't as well known as The Avengers. Since The Avengers has broken out, Chris Hemsworth is the number one most talked about actor in Hollywood right now amongst females. And, there was a poll taken not too long ago about what movies females are most excited to see, and Snow White and the Huntsman is number one. And the guys will be there, I just know it.

[Alana]

1) Sure, successful plays have flopped as movies. Each movie is different. How do you explain Hairspray and Mamma Mia!? RoA has a lot more in common with those.2) Reception at CinemaCon was strong and early word we've heard is that the film delivers for all audiences. Its tracking *very* well so far.3) What higher relevance does Boxoffice Buzz have? They don't have any more clout than Boxoffice does, and our tracking/forecast favors RoA.

adding to this...on RTTMB: 89% on 6.3k votesRoA: 89% with 7.4k votes (not bad for a Musical)FacebookTMB: 34kRoA: 110KTwitter:RoA is more popular, I think partially because they've advertised so far on AI and DWTS which have over 10M viewers each. The international hype is from the fact that TC is in it and he sings. It's something completely different from the recent role he played, Ethan Hunt. That's just the internet hype. if, somehow, TMB opens at 1 on the weekend, RoA will still outgross it since it it's the better film.

[kayumanggi]

2012 is still ahead of any year.