Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
JJ-8

Weekend 15th - 18th December 2011 (AU) - Ghost isn't Mission Impossible after all

Recommended Posts

Ghost isn’t Mission Impossible after all

By Jajang


After the poor response from the 3rd film in the Mission: Impossible franchise, a good opening weekend was expected to be mission: impossible. Surprising all like in the US, Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol opened with a strong but not overwhelming 4.1m over the weekend. This bested the 3rd films opening weekend of 3.8m but fell well short of the impressive 6.2m opening in 2000 of the 2nd film. While Ghost’s opening is least attended Mission: Impossible film on opening weekend, it’s opening could have easily been a complete wash given the very poor legs of the previous film (though that film was liked better than the 2nd film) and the fact that Cruises star power has been waning in recent years. Given the opening and time period it has opened in, Ghost should easily pass the 3rd films poor total of just over 10m. The 2nd films good 22m finish is out of reach, but I think that ghost protocol can reach the 15m of the first film (which indecently opened around 3.8m).


As expected after last weekends, opening weekend, Puss in Boots held well down only 26% to 2.2m and a running total of 7.7m. As strong as this hold is, I must say I’m disappointed in the hold as Megamind had a better hold last year at the same time though I must admit that Megamind did open slightly weaker. The real test for Puss is from boxing day onwards when it faces an onslaught of family fare such as Tin Tin, Happy Feet 2 amongst other films. Puss in Boots continues to lead Megamind at the same point in it’s run and is on target for a finish above 15m (20m is still our target). Dropping to 3rd, after a disappointing opening weekend was New Year’s Eve, which had a surprisingly strong hold of 35%. New Year’s Eve has now reached 5.8m which is still short of Valentine’s Day opening weekend here. It currently trails VD by just over 6m. But of course NYE still has it’s namesake to come would should see a nice bump around that time. So it should continue to play strongly into January. While it is indeed someway behind Valentine’s, it should be able to easily reach 10m or more at this rate and is still and outside shot of reaching Valentine’s Day final total of 15.8m. Fourth belonged to the 5 week old, Breaking Dawn 1 which continued to make some money. While it has indeed made an impressive 27.3m to date, it now is all but assured that it will miss the elusive 30m mark which many before opening would have had this film passing. This is also not a good sign for the final film in the Saga Breaking Dawn 2 which could well see a further dip to possibly even below that of the first films total. Of course, there is the finale factor which could drive the film in the other direction (ala Harry Potter), but there is still the question mark over the final book. Is it really as popular as the rest of the series. Only time will tell. Finally rounding out the top 5, was Jack & Jill which has made a tidy but disappointing 4.6m over the past 3 weeks.


The other major opener of the weekend was of course Dolphin Tale 3D. It opened all the way down in 8th with an embarrassingly low per screen average of 1k. Why this got such a high screen count I’ll never understand. I expected at most 200 screens, and not 317 screens. The per screen average clearly shows this.


The Top 20 are all in Australian Dollars.


TW

LW

Title

Rating

Weekend Gross

% Change

Screens

Per Screen Average

Total Gross

TI

1

-

MISSION IMPOSSIBLE: GHOST PROTOCOL

M

$4,121,596

-

414

$9,956

$4,247,493

1

2

1

PUSS IN BOOTS

PG

$2,154,488

-26.2%

512

$4,208

$7,705,051

2

3

2

NEW YEAR`S EVE

M

$1,721,371

-34.9%

335

$5,138

$5,877,961

2

4

3

THE TWILIGHT SAGA: BREAKING DAWN - PART 1

M

$587,793

-49.0%

286

$2,055

$27,268,757

5

5

4

JACK AND JILL

PG

$559,313

-46.3%

227

$2,464

$4,625,485

3

6

5

THE INBETWEENERS

MA15+

$490,831

-50.9%

215

$2,283

$8,191,404

4

7

6

ARTHUR CHRISTMAS

G

$486,211

-12.9%

355

$1,370

$4,351,795

4

8

-

DOLPHIN TALE

PG

$325,723

-

317

$1,028

$348,819

1

9

7

THE IDES OF MARCH

M

$307,863

-42.0%

87

$3,539

$3,420,423

4

10

-

THE WOMEN ON THE 6TH FLOOR

PG

$144,743

-

24

$6,031

$452,542

1

11

8

IMMORTALS

MA15+

$139,340

-71.5%

211

$660

$4,572,581

4

12

10

MIDNIGHT IN PARIS

PG

$82,901

-39.2%

53

$1,564

$6,819,568

9

13

-

MELANCHOLIA

M

$81,720

-

21

$3,891

$114,284

1

14

9

MONEYBALL

M

$74,772

-60.4%

58

$1,289

$4,977,946

6

15

13

WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN

MA15+

$45,667

-39.3%

22

$2,076

$703,259

5

16

-

FLYING SWORDS OF DRAGON GATE

M

$32,205

-

13

$2,477

$32,205

1

17

11

IN TIME

M

$23,536

-77.9%

17

$1,384

$9,102,780

8

18

14

THE DEBT

MA15+

$21,593

-60.5%

31

$697

$1,240,109

6

19

15

DRIVE

MA15+

$17,206

-63.1%

15

$1,147

$2,289,406

8

20

18

BILL CUNNINGHAM NEW YORK

PG

$16,152

-33.3%

10

$1,615

$414,133

7

Edited by Jajang

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Prediction for coming Weekend

22nd - 25h December (22nd - 27th December) 2011


There is nothing opening wide on Thursday, but this is due to boxing day falling on a Monday this year. Before reviewing the Monday openers, a quick review of the normal 4 weekend is in order. I’m expecting all films to take fairly large hits this weekend as most gear up for Christmas. Here is my prediction for the normal 4 day weekend (if it’s reported – see my notes below):


1 (1) Mission Impossible – Ghost Protocol - 1.3m / 6.6m

2 (2) Puss in Boots – 800k / 9.0m

3 (3) New Year’s Eve – 500k / 6.8m

4 (7) Arthur Christmas – 400k / 5.0m

5 (4) Breaking Dawn 1 – 200k / 27.6m


These totals take into account that Christmas itself falls on the Sunday.


Ok on to Monday, there is 7 films opening thought I’m not whether all 7 will be wide on the 26th. Tin Tin or Happy Feet 2 are the most likely films to lead on Monday with Tower Heist and We bought a Zoo also in the mix. Below is my prediction for the 6 day opening (including the normal weekend). All films with a * against them opened on the Monday and only have 2 days of play against all other films which have 6 days of play for the weekend. (the 6 day total includes the public holidays on Monday and Tuesday.


TW

LW

Movie

Prediction

Total

1

-

The Adventures of Tin Tin *

4.6m

4.6m

2

-

Happy Feet 2 *

3.8m

3.8m

3

1

Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol

3.3m

8.6m

4

-

Tower Heist *

2.9m

2.9m

5

2

Puss in Boots

2.5m

10.7m

6

-

We Bought a Zoo *

2.0m

2.0m

7

3

New Year's Eve

1.9m

8.2m

8

-

War Horse *

1.6m

1.6m

9

7

Arthur Christmas

1.0m

5.6m

10

4

Breaking Dawn 1

0.8m

28.2m


* opens on 26th December 2011 (ie. only monday / tuesday numbers in prediction)

Note – I’m not sure whether the numbers will be reported next week, so we may not see any actuals till after new years. (this happened last Christmas). Either way Actuals will not be released before Wednesday next week (28th December)

Edited by Jajang

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Trying to give a good analysis of the Australian Box Office on a weekly basis here now... It just doesn't exist really out there - i mean the numbers are reported but not really analysed in any depth.and thanks mate :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Shawn can put these kinds of box office report and analyse on the front page of BOT.A formal reporter you will be, Jajang. :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hope Tower Heist flops here. The adds have been terrible.

Edited by DeeCee

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I thought those drops might be a bit high but I checked 2005 and most films fell about 60%. King Kong dropped 65%.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The problem is - Christmas day is all but closed for movies here. In fact very little is open. It's gotten better over the years but is still restricted. Movies released before mas day collapse on the day but make up for from boxing day. Boxing is still the single biggest day of the the year. Excluding Harry potter 8 - the 2 highest opening days were boxing day (lord of the rings films to be exact. (null)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On tower heist u might be right. That could easily be 1m or less. Tin tin is known here not by the comics but by the often played and popular cartoon. (got and continues to get play on the abc - not the us company but a free to air NORAD aster here)(null)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I know Tin Tin by the comics. I read most of them when I was younger. The only comics I've ever read are Tin Tin and Asterix.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The thread title mislead me, for a moment I thought it was saying that there was a film with the same title but it was not MI4.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ok on to Monday, there is 7 films opening thought I’m not whether all 7 will be wide on the 26th.

Tintin, Happy feet, We bought a Zoo, Tower Heist, War Horse and Iron Lady all should be wide (at least in victoria) and all should do pretty decent.

Pretty decent first weekend for MI, but I can see it failing with legs with Tintin and Tower Heist coming out. Next weekend will be really dead due to christmas eve and christmas day.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.