THE Incredibles 2 | June 15, 2018 | NO SPOILERS!!!!

[BadAtGender]

So, I haven't done this in a while, but since it looks like I2 is heading for some historic heights, I wanted to plug it into the simple stupid box office projector.

 

For the uninitiated, this is a very basic spreadsheet I've set up that simply takes the latest weekly gross of the film and applies static drops for the next sixteen weeks to arrive at a total. This isn't assuming that any film will perform with exactly the same drops week after week, but rather to indicate what sort of performance the film would require to get to certain targets. Also, weekly grosses tend to even out the influence of holidays and the like.

 

So, without further ado...

 

In week three, Pixar's latest held steady at the second position, behind the Jurassic World sequel. It pulled in 81.18m, to push its tally to 475.36m. This was a drop of just 35%, which might mean we're going to see some good staying power for the next few weeks.

 

The week pushed it past the (rer-elease boosted) total of Star Wars: Episode 1: The Phantom Menace, and has it sitting about 11m shy of Finding Dory, which means that sometime on Saturday, Incredibles 2 will become the highest grossing animated film of all time.

 

But what if we wanted to see it become the highest grossing animated film... adjusted for inflation? Well, in order to do that, it would have to best the multiple re-releases of Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs, which is sitting at 998.44m. So for I2 to get there, it would need to likely become the first billion dollar film and the highest grossing movie of all time. If it starts falling at 12% per week, it'll take about 18 weeks to get there. 13% and it's a bit longer, but still looks likely.  (I'm guessing since, as above, my projections stop at 16 weeks.) 14% is likely a bit short. So, 13% is what's needed.

 

This is... not likely, to be fair. So, how about the #2 spot, held by 101 Dalmatians? That's only 915.24m, which would need 15% drops. Maybe 16%, but likely a little higher. Still not likely. Sorry, folks.

 

The #3 animated film is the first modern entry, the legendary Lion King, which, with a couple of re-releases, has an adjusted tally of $816.58m. To get to that auspicious height, Incredibles 2 will need 19% drops. That's still in the realm of really unlikely, but we're getting close to the sort of things that can be believed.

 

To claim the title of "biggest movie of 2018", it will need to edge past the just-barely-under-700m-seriously-what-the-hell-Disney-you-couldn't-push-it-that-final-200k total of Black Panther. And that, my friends, needs 26% drops. I wouldn't call that likely, but I wouldn't rule it out entirely, either, especially if it has a strong week 4. These drops would also just beat The Avengers to claim the title of "biggest superhero movie of all time, adjusted for inflation."

 

Snatching the summer 2018 crown from Infinity War is only slightly easier, at about 28% drops.

 

Let's move down to 650.83m, because that's the adjusted total of Shrek 2, and is notable not only because it happened within the past 15 years (it was released just a few months before the first Incredibles), but also because it never had a re-release to pad its total. If I2 gets past it in a single run, then that's a good claim to fame. To do that, it needs 31% drops. Which is edging closer to that 35% it held in week three.

 

If it holds steady with 35% drops, it will finish with about 626m.

 

The 600m mark needs just 39% drops. And it can drop 52% for every week from here on out and it still gets to 550m.

 

In order to miss cracking the top 10 unadjusted list, it will need to see 59% or bigger drops every week. So I think we can say it's likely that Rogue One will be getting bumped to #11.

 

Looking forward, the landscape is pretty good for it. This week sees Ant Man & The Wasp, which crosses over superhero-wise. And next week is Hotel Transylvania 3, which hits the animated side of things. However, in the latter case, it might play a bit younger than I2, so it may be able to weather that storm pretty well. The latter half of the summer sees a lot of action films, which will mostly play to older audiences and probably cannibalize each-other to a degree.

 

Outside of A&W and HT3, the biggest direct competition is probably Teen Titans Go to the Movies, which is both animated and superhero, but is also a TV adaptation, which tends to play pretty softly overall. Only nine such films have even grossed $50m total. TTGTTM does have some strong marketing, but it's still not likely to break out big. 

 

600m looks likely. I'll update again next week, probably.

[Asyulus]

Once this passes $900m WW, all of 50 highest grossing films globally will all be over $900m.

[meriodejaneiro]

13 hours ago, Asyulus said:

Once this passes $900m WW, all of 50 highest grossing films globally will all be over $900m.

And 22/50 will be Disney movies (almost half of them).

[Jandrew]

So im in DC at Shake Shack and this girl was (very loudy) talking about Elastigirl’s thickness.

 

I’m 95% sure she said “mm yeah girl, ass and thighs!” The GA knows...the GA knows.

[YM!]

8 minutes ago, Jandrew said:

So im in DC at Shake Shack and this girl was (very loudy) talking about Elastigirl’s thickness.

 

I’m 95% sure she said “mm yeah girl, ass and thighs!” The GA knows...the GA knows.

You should see the memes.

Spoiler

Also Shadman.    🤢🤢🤢

 

Edited July 8, 2018 by YourMother the Edgelord

[TMP]

23 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

You should see the memes.

  Hide contents

Also Shadman.    🤢🤢🤢

 

just found about Shadman this morning, holy moly people have some weird ass (bordering on illegal since Violet is underage?) fetishes 

[YM!]

12 minutes ago, TMP said:

just found about Shadman this morning, holy moly people have some weird ass (bordering on illegal since Violet is underage?) fetishes 

Out of likes but agreed. Shadman is disgusting.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

48 minutes ago, Jandrew said:

So im in DC at Shake Shack and this girl was (very loudy) talking about Elastigirl’s thickness.

 

I’m 95% sure she said “mm yeah girl, ass and thighs!” The GA knows...the GA knows.

That's all my friends would talk about when rewatching the first

[robertman2]

I hate Shadman for two reasons

 

1, his taste is possibly illegal and 2, his art style is terrible

[Eric Atreides]

...what's a Shadman?

 

Actually, I don't think I want to know.

[YM!]

5 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

...what's a Shadman?

 

Actually, I don't think I want to know.

You’re right. You definitely don’t want to know.

[DAR]

14 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

...what's a Shadman?

 

Actually, I don't think I want to know.

It’s good to sometimes be oblivious 

[Juby]

On 7/7/2018 at 5:15 AM, ElastiRoc said:

But what if we wanted to see it become the highest grossing animated film... adjusted for inflation? Well, in order to do that, it would have to best the multiple re-releases of Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs, which is sitting at 998.44m. So for I2 to get there, it would need to likely become the first billion dollar film and the highest grossing movie of all time. If it starts falling at 12% per week, it'll take about 18 weeks to get there. 13% and it's a bit longer, but still looks likely.  (I'm guessing since, as above, my projections stop at 16 weeks.) 14% is likely a bit short. So, 13% is what's needed.

 

This is... not likely, to be fair. So, how about the #2 spot, held by 101 Dalmatians? That's only 915.24m, which would need 15% drops. Maybe 16%, but likely a little higher. Still not likely. Sorry, folks.

 

The #3 animated film is the first modern entry, the legendary Lion King, which, with a couple of re-releases, has an adjusted tally of $816.58m. To get to that auspicious height, Incredibles 2 will need 19% drops. That's still in the realm of really unlikely, but we're getting close to the sort of things that can be believed.

 

(...)

 

Let's move down to 650.83m, because that's the adjusted total of Shrek 2, and is notable not only because it happened within the past 15 years (it was released just a few months before the first Incredibles), but also because it never had a re-release to pad its total. If I2 gets past it in a single run, then that's a good claim to fame. To do that, it needs 31% drops. Which is edging closer to that 35% it held in week three.

 

If we consider only the original releases of all animated movies, than probably the biggest are:

 

1. The Lion King (1994) around $682-686 million adjusted

2. Shrek 2 (2004) $650.83 million adjusted

 

And there's no other true +$600 million animated grosser domestically. Incredibles 2 might have become the third biggest animation ever in tickets sale for a single run!  

[Captain Craig]

The idea that $600m is on the table is amazing. I thought this film would do really well but like Black Panther before it has gone further than I could see. 

This film and Disney's other hits Avengers Infinity War and Black Panther will be covering for the let downs of Wrinkle in Time and Solo. 

They still have Mary Poppins Returns coming as well and I see big hit there. 

[BadAtGender]

I'm a few days late for this, but it's time for another update of the simple, stupid box office projector.

 

If you remember last week, I indicated that $600m was a likely final target for the film, or at least in that range. Let's see how week four does to keep it on that pace.

 

Well, the film earned $44.24m for the week. This pushed the total to an amazing $519.6m. This made it the 11th biggest movie of all time, sitting between Rogue One and Beauty and the Beast (2017). It also definitively set it as the biggest animated movie of all time and, I suppose, because it's ahead of BATB, it's bigger than any animation derived film, too. At least until The Lion King releases next year, possibly.

 

However, the weekly drop was about 45%, and that is a bit short to keep 600m in easy reach. To give you an idea about how much the landscape has changed, last week I2 needed about 19% drops to end up above The Lion King as the biggest modern animated move on the adjusted chart. This week, 19% drops would only get it to the $700m mark or so, and just ahead of Black Panther. Getting ahead of TLK would need about 13% drops.

 

So, we can probably dispense with the amusing fiction that anything up in that realm is going to be possible.

 

What about the Shrek 2 target? Well, 25% drops would get it there, eventually. Again, that's probably a bit too much of an ask. So let's continue on down the track.

 

$600m, which was likely last week sits at 35% drops. And that's not impossible, but it feels like more upper end than mid-range, now. Since we're already late in the weekend, we know that in the face of the release of Hotel Translyvania 3, I2 fell another 45% for the weekend. If that's the trend going forward we'll be looking at a final total around $575m.

 

However, I think that there might be some good news. Part of the reason week 3 was so strong was because of the holiday boost. Somewhat contrary to conventional wisdom, I2 had an amazing July 4th, down less than 10% from June 27th. And the other weekdays had week-on-week drops under 30%.

 

Week 4, in contrast, didn't have those boosts, so the weekdays saw drops between 48% and 63%. We won't be seeing a similar situation going forward, and the hit should course correct a bit.

 

Once we look past the holiday comparisons and the big competition hit of Friday, we can see week-on-week drops of between 35% and 40%. From the projector, that would put the final total between $585m and $600m.

 

I'll update again next week, hopefully before the weekend has spoiled a bit of the surprise.

[korrasami]

Final box office prediction WW? 

 

I’m guessing 1.25B. 

[MrFanaticGuy34]

14 hours ago, korrasami said:

Final box office prediction WW? 

 

I’m guessing 1.25B. 

Unless it somehow misses or does lower than TS3, OS-wise....i don’t see why outgrossing Frozen’s WW-gross, would be Impossible especially since I2 already beat it, DOM-wise.

[meriodejaneiro]

14 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

Unless it somehow misses or does lower than TS3, OS-wise....i don’t see why outgrossing Frozen’s WW-gross, would be Impossible especially since I2 already beat it, DOM-wise.

Frozen got 875M os ... thanks to an astonishing $250M from Japan. In China i think both will get the same, aroung $50M.

Maybe the 200M extra I2 will get domestically can compensate the smaller os share compared to Frozen.

 

So some 600 dom + 650 os for I2 can happen. But I don't see I2 going much further than Frozen ww (I'd say I2 will land a bit under Frozen, $1.15-1.2B).

[JohnnyGossamer]

I assume there are a large number of foreign markets that Incredibles 2 has yet to open in? If so, what are these markets? Thanks in advance.

[cookie]

41 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

I assume there are a large number of foreign markets that Incredibles 2 has yet to open in? If so, what are these markets? Thanks in advance.

A good chunk of Europe (including Germany, Spain, Scandinavia and Italy) and Japan

Edited July 17, 2018 by cookie