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THE Incredibles 2 | June 15, 2018 | NO SPOILERS!!!!

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52 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

I assume there are a large number of foreign markets that Incredibles 2 has yet to open in? If so, what are these markets? Thanks in advance.

UK 13 July 2018  
Ireland 13 July 2018  
Poland 13 July 2018  
South Korea 18 July 2018  
Hong Kong 19 July 2018  
Romania 27 July 2018  
Japan 1 August 2018  
Czech Republic 2 August 2018  
Slovakia 2 August 2018  
Estonia 3 August 2018  
Spain 3 August 2018  
Lithuania 3 August 2018  
Latvia 3 August 2018  
Turkey 22 August 2018  
Norway 24 August 2018  
Denmark 30 August 2018  
Finland 31 August 2018  
Sweden 31 August 2018  
Italy 19 September 2018  
Germany 27 September 2018
Edited by meriodejaneiro
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That's what TI made from the remaining I2 markets:

 

UK 62M

Poland 4M

SK 6.8M

HK 4.3M

Romania 58k

Japan 50M

Czech Republic 700k

Slovakia 187k

Spain 25.4M

Lithuania 51k 

Turkey 2M

Norway 2.8M

Denmark 3.5M

Finland 1.2M

Sweden 4.8M

Italy 20.2M

Germany 24.2M

 

Total ≈ 212M

 

Only these numbers take I2 to $534M os and $1.07B ww. Considering some 70M+ dom, what is left from os, and those 212 turned into som 250M in 2018 ... Frozen's ww ($1.27B) more or less. 

 

I said in an earlier post that I2 could end a bit short of Frozen ww ... but seeing these detailed numbers I might change my opinion into I2ww > Frozen ww. And the 1.3B could be reachable. 

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1 hour ago, meriodejaneiro said:

Frozen got 875M os ... thanks to an astonishing $250M from Japan. In China i think both will get the same, aroung $50M.

Maybe the 200M extra I2 will get domestically can compensate the smaller os share compared to Frozen.

 

So some 600 dom + 650 os for I2 can happen. But I don't see I2 going much further than Frozen ww (I'd say I2 will land a bit under Frozen, $1.15-1.2B).

I hope I2 does beat Frozen though. That film has been the highest animated grosser for far too long.

 

Kinda shocked that I2 isn’t performing similarly to Illumination’s Minions & DM3, OS-wise....considering this is an animated sequel that every fan wanted to see and wanted to happen. Since this film had so much hype...(moreso than Finding Dory)...you’d expect more record-breaking OS numbers for this.

Edited by MrFanaticGuy34
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Time for another simple, stupid box office projector update.

 

In week five, Incredibles 2 pulled in 26.2 million. That's a 40.7% drop from week four, which does indicate nice course correction. The total is now up to 545.8m. Since last week, I2 has passed Rogue One and The Dark Knight to edge its way into the top 10 of all time. 

 

(Side note, as we're right around the ten year anniversary of TDK, which was absolutely huge and arguably ushered in the era of mega-blockbusters that we're seeing to this day. The next film to pass it will knock it out of the top ten. When it finished its first run, it was the second biggest movie of all time, but with Avengers 4, Toy Story 4, Aladdin, The Lion King, and Star Wars 9 all due out next year, it definitely looks as if it will have to give way to something soon.)

 

Anyway, currently I2 is 9th on the domestic list. In order to get to 8th, it will need to edge past Star Wars: The Last Jedi, which is at 620.2m. How likely is that? Just a second, and I'll get back to it.

 

First, I want to update the Shrek2 watch. As I noted a couple weeks ago, Shrek 2 remains the highest adjusted grossing animated film that was never re-released. (TLK's original run adjusts higher, of course, thanks to 10 more years of inflation... also, holy crap I just realized that the live action TLK will be released 25 years after the first... However, it's also had a few re-releases.) The Shrek 2 total is just a smidgen past $650m. For I2 to get to that mark, it's going to need to have holds at the 20% mark or so. Which is, unfortunately, not likely to happen. Still, I suppose stranger things have happened.

 

Now, what about TLJ? Well, to get there, I2 will need about 26% drops, or slightly better. Again, that's probably out of reach, so we'll likely see it stay at the #9 slot on the top 10 list for now. Whatever the second film to enter the top 10 is will knock it off that list.

 

600m, the mark I identified as likely 2 weeks ago needs 32% drops. That's slightly more reasonable than last week, but only slightly. I was probably in error when I made that estimate.

 

If it has 35% drops, just about tying its best weekly hold, it would end up just under $595m. The good news is, that's possible, though still unlikely, and given the things that happen late release, it probably means a final tally a little bit higher would be in the cards. The bad news is, that's probably not quite enough to justify any extra shenanigans to get to the $600m mark. (A film probably needs to get within about $2m or so before fairly normal practices will get it over a century mark. More than that, and the studio really needs to drag things out, which looks increasingly suspect. See Spectre or A Wrinkle in Time for examples.)

 

40% drops would see a final tally right around 585m. As I noted last week, this feels like a likely area for it to finish up in. Probably just slightly higher because of things that happen in the late run. but not significantly so.

 

45% still does 577m, and 50% drops slots it in at 572m.

 

If, by some reason, it fell off a cliff and started seeing 55-60% drops, that would put the final total around 563-568m.

 

It's still got gas in the tank, but the possible end points are starting to narrow quite a bit.

 

Another update next week. See y'all then!

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9 minutes ago, ElastiRoc said:

Time for another simple, stupid box office projector update.

 

In week five, Incredibles 2 pulled in 26.2 million. That's a 40.7% drop from week four, which does indicate nice course correction. The total is now up to 545.8m. Since last week, I2 has passed Rogue One and The Dark Knight to edge its way into the top 10 of all time. 

 

(Side note, as we're right around the ten year anniversary of TDK, which was absolutely huge and arguably ushered in the era of mega-blockbusters that we're seeing to this day. The next film to pass it will knock it out of the top ten. When it finished its first run, it was the second biggest movie of all time, but with Avengers 4, Toy Story 4, Aladdin, The Lion King, and Star Wars 9 all due out next year, it definitely looks as if it will have to give way to something soon.)

 

Anyway, currently I2 is 9th on the domestic list. In order to get to 8th, it will need to edge past Star Wars: The Last Jedi, which is at 620.2m. How likely is that? Just a second, and I'll get back to it.

 

First, I want to update the Shrek2 watch. As I noted a couple weeks ago, Shrek 2 remains the highest adjusted grossing animated film that was never re-released. (TLK's original run adjusts higher, of course, thanks to 10 more years of inflation... also, holy crap I just realized that the live action TLK will be released 25 years after the first... However, it's also had a few re-releases.) The Shrek 2 total is just a smidgen past $650m. For I2 to get to that mark, it's going to need to have holds at the 20% mark or so. Which is, unfortunately, not likely to happen. Still, I suppose stranger things have happened.

 

Now, what about TLJ? Well, to get there, I2 will need about 26% drops, or slightly better. Again, that's probably out of reach, so we'll likely see it stay at the #9 slot on the top 10 list for now. Whatever the second film to enter the top 10 is will knock it off that list.

 

600m, the mark I identified as likely 2 weeks ago needs 32% drops. That's slightly more reasonable than last week, but only slightly. I was probably in error when I made that estimate.

 

If it has 35% drops, just about tying its best weekly hold, it would end up just under $595m. The good news is, that's possible, though still unlikely, and given the things that happen late release, it probably means a final tally a little bit higher would be in the cards. The bad news is, that's probably not quite enough to justify any extra shenanigans to get to the $600m mark. (A film probably needs to get within about $2m or so before fairly normal practices will get it over a century mark. More than that, and the studio really needs to drag things out, which looks increasingly suspect. See Spectre or A Wrinkle in Time for examples.)

 

40% drops would see a final tally right around 585m. As I noted last week, this feels like a likely area for it to finish up in. Probably just slightly higher because of things that happen in the late run. but not significantly so.

 

45% still does 577m, and 50% drops slots it in at 572m.

 

If, by some reason, it fell off a cliff and started seeing 55-60% drops, that would put the final total around 563-568m.

 

It's still got gas in the tank, but the possible end points are starting to narrow quite a bit.

 

Another update next week. See y'all then!

You could, maybe, add to your predictions the fact that I2 will be on theaters on Labour Day we, at the beginning of september. Dory and TS3 added around 3M on that 4-day we. I2 is outpacing them both, so may be with that Labour Day we expansion I2 could add some 5M that we. That could round up your numbers to the 600M dom.

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4 minutes ago, meriodejaneiro said:

You could, maybe, add to your predictions the fact that I2 will be on theaters on Labour Day we, at the beginning of september. Dory and TS3 added around 3M on that 4-day we. I2 is outpacing them both, so may be with that Labour Day we expansion I2 could add some 5M that we. That could round up your numbers to the 600M dom.

 

I don't really want to deviate from the math of my spreadsheet too much. I'm willing to make some general assumptions and will note when a week that has just passed had something within it that may throw off the pattern, but if I start really looking at calendar configurations and noting that, it diverges far from the "simple, stupid" part of the design.

 

Or, to put it another way, these aren't predictions from the math side of things. My commentary might paint it as such, in as much as I'll say if something's likely or not, but don't take any of that as too literal. I don't (and nobody should) expect a film to hold to exactly the same drop for several weeks.

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On 7/22/2018 at 6:09 PM, SteveJaros said:

I2 now has $940m WW in the bank with Japan and many Euro countries still to go. $1.1B total is almost a sure thing at this point, eh? 

Nos it's at 943M. Some 40M dom plus 140M from the remaining markets to be released (that's what TI made in them ... is to be supposed that I2 should see an increase in those markets). So the 1.1B is more than assured. 

 

What I see more difficult is to achieve the highest animated film ww. That would mean topping Frozen's 1,273B. That's 333M away, quite a long way imo. But let's see. I bet will end up in 2nd animated ww, on the lows 1,2B

On 7/23/2018 at 3:46 AM, korrasami said:

Starting to think this might actually become the highest grossing animated film now. 

 

 

 

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So, the fam and I watched this movie this week.  I can honestly say, this was written for the male adult fans of the original:).  My spouse LOVED it, and gave it an A/A- (I think he was gonna give it an A, but he heard my grade wasn't as high and dropped it).  In fact, in my family, he gave it the highest "real" grade...the rest of us:)...

 

Me - B+ - As good as the original.  A nice Pixar quality flick that didn't try too hard to stick in unneeded messaging.  Too predictable and derivative to get a better grade from me, but very enjoyable.

Teen - A- - She was also very happy with the film.

Almost Teen - B - She said she was happy she saw it, but it was a one-and-done.  She won't rewatch.

1st Boy - A - Those who know, this kid almost always gives every movie an A+, but he was not happy

Spoiler

supers were illegal.  Like, really not happy.  He had not seen the original, and now he's not seeing Captain America Civil War for awhile, b/c if this one bugged him, well, that one might make him apopletic.

2nd boy - A- - he was totally into the 1st third and last third, but there was some boredom in the middle - he probably would have preferred 10 minutes cut out of the middle...

 

Happy we saw it in theaters...hopefully Teen Titans Go at least lives up to this one (since we've now got tickets for that one, too:)...

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I would guess at this point matching Minions is the lower end of what's likely.  The remaining markets I think can add around 90-100, plus about 100m from existing markets, plus 600 domestic for 1160+

 

 

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On 7/26/2018 at 7:21 PM, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

So far it’s at just $383M OS. Doing kinda soft there compared to other blockbusters this year.

 

Edna would be like: tenor.gif?itemid=4842685

What's left from actual overseas markets + remaining markets to be released should combined add 200M+ easily os. Add some 40M dom, and the 1.2B (+ or -) is where I2 should end, for the #2 ww animation movie (behind only Frozen and avobe above Minions). 

Edited by meriodejaneiro
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What a difference a week makes.

 

Last time around, the simple stupid projector was laying it out that most of the likely paths probably had I2 ending up somewhat short of the $600m mark, possibly close enough to get nudged over the line, if Disney so desired (Black Panther is still shy of $700m, even after a 129% weekly bump), but more than likely too far to be worth the effort.

 

And now?

 

Well, now, I2 in week 6 earned a whopping $19.8m, down just under 25%! That is an amazing hold, considerably better than any previous week, and it puts things in a nicer perspective. It should be noted that since we're getting late into the run, this doesn't shift things up majorly, but it does alter a few possibilities from more fringy to somewhat likely.

 

First up, the Shrek 2 adjusted number of $650m or so. In order to get there, I2 will probably need to get those drops under 20%. Sadly, it seems as if that Dreamworks/Pixar rivarly from the early 00s will remain with Dreamworks holding that adjusted gross trophy. Maybe Toy Story 4 will get there next year? We'll have to see.

 

But, if we just look at that 24.5% drop, well, that would mean a final total around $625m. And that would jolt it up to 7th place on the All Time Domestic chart, ahead of both Star Wars: The Last Jedi and The Avengers. In fact, it could thread a very narrow needle between them with about 26% drops.

 

$600m, a number that used to indicate a movie was doing well beyond anything even close to normal in terms of business, but after the first few months of this year, seems pretty much a given for the Disney monolith that we'll likely see producing all our media within the next decade...

 

Sorry.

 

$600m will need 36% drops. That's... quite reasonable. I definitely wouldn't say it's a shoe-in (only two weekly holds are better than that, and one of those was holiday boosted) but it seems very possible.

 

A 40% weekly hold from here on out would see it finish north of $595m, but probably too far to make pushing it to the mark worth it.

 

I'd guess that the make or break mark is about 38%, right now. If I2 holds to that, it'll end up around $598m on its own, so it might be close enough to make pulling a few strings worth it.

 

If $600m does happen, it'll be the fourth film Disney released within six months of each-other to cross that mark. There are only five other films that have previously done it, so this has been a pretty ridiculous run for the company.

 

Next week we'll get to see if this really great hold is trend or if it was a weird one-off. See you then!

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On 7/27/2018 at 9:59 PM, Ryan Reynolds said:

 

 

I'm suddenly reminded of capalert.com, which was one of the sites I tended to loop back around to regularly in internet days of yesteryear, mostly because it was fascinating to see... kind of like a trainwreck. Every instance of something offensive was noted as a negative, regardless of context, and wrapped together in an arcane scoring mechanism to determine which films were okay (in a specifically fundamentalist christian context) for children to watch.

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