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THE Incredibles 2 | June 15, 2018 | NO SPOILERS!!!!

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Interestingly enough, I realized that ever since TLK in '94, the only real time the DOM top ten has been without an animated film was the 6 months stretch between TFA and Dory. And BP knocked Dory out a couple months ago, leaving the top ten animation free again. So it would be fitting for I2 to claim a spot there, very unusual if we get a long stretch without an animated film in the top 10 given the history of the last twenty five years or so. 

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22 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Interestingly enough, I realized that ever since TLK in '94, the only real time the DOM top ten has been without an animated film was the 6 months stretch between TFA and Dory. And BP knocked Dory out a couple months ago, leaving the top ten animation free again. So it would be fitting for I2 to claim a spot there, very unusual if we get a long stretch without an animated film in the top 10 given the history of the last twenty five years or so. 

I2 will make the top 10, the only question is where.  The only one it has no chance to pass is TFA :Venom:

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I think Incredibles aged far better with folks growing up than Nemo thus why Dory's hype seemed muted while TI2's doesn't. Lack of big kids movies + More people nostalgic about the property than Nemo + Superhero crazy could lead to a 170m opening I believe.

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53 minutes ago, tribefan695 said:

Everything sure looks like it's in this movie's favor now. But I still want a "mere" $400 million to be considered a success.

It is. It's more than the first adjusted. You'd have to be completely new to box office to even attempt to give a reason for why outgrossing a predecessor adjusted isn't a huge success. 

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2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

It is. It's more than the first adjusted. You'd have to be completely new to box office to even attempt to give a reason for why outgrossing a predecessor adjusted isn't a huge success. 

And yet people still would if it "only" opens to $130 mil.

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Just now, tribefan695 said:

And yet people still would if it "only" opens to $130 mil.

Then they don't understand box office and the fact that there are only a few times in history sequels to movies that sold 40m+ admissions outsold their predecessor.  

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If we say the cutoff for 40m admissions is around 370m today, then these are the only sequels ever to increase adjusted on a predecessor that made at least 370m adjusted:

 

Guardians of the Galaxy 2 

Toy Story 2

Toy Story 3

Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

Star Wars: Revenge of the Sith

Shrek 2

Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers

Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

Catching Fire

 

So by getting to 400m, I2 would already be in a club of only 10 other films in history. There is nothing disappointing about 400m for this if it ended there, just to  nip that in the bud if that's the thought process people are on now. 

Edited by MovieMan89
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It does feel like everything is leading to this film being a potentially huge blockbuster success. With the exception of a few animated/kids films that made hardly any splash at the box office, this is the first (big) animated/kids film to open in ages.

 

It's also opening at a great time in the cultural/film landscape, given the subject matter - it's an animated superhero kids movie at what we could call a real peak for superhero movies. Infinity War just opened to insane numbers, and was billed as the culmination of an era of comic book films. Pixar films also excel because they are so accessible to and well-liked by adults, too, and therefore appeal to families overall.

 

Based on social media reactions, it appears that this will be another film among Pixar's cream of the crop. The good Pixar films, that are critically acclaimed (90+% on RT), have great legs. Among their critically well received films (3-day openers), Wall-E is the shortest with a 3.55 multiplier. Finding Dory, even with its huge $135M opening, had a 3.6 multiplier. Thus, I would think strong legs are likely for this film, too.

 

This will be a whole lot of fun to watch perform. The film opens on Father's Day weekend, which could lessen the legs somewhat, but make for an incredible opening weekend.

 

Peace,

Mike

Edited by MikeQ
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if this does 140-145 ow, say 142.5, needs 3.42x to beat Dory's dom.

even lowering expectations 130*3.3 = ~430 looks like the least this will movie do while the high-end could be what, around 100 more than that...

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