Mojoguy Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 So you want about $1.6B DOM? Why not? lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrGlass2 Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 All the animated records are going down. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avatree Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 2 hours ago, Asyulus said: FINAL PREDICTION: $168m OW $531m DOM $1.042b WW Why would it be so DOM heavy? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewart Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ranger Tree said: Why would it be so DOM heavy? Looking at other Pixar titles, Incredibles was initially a bit more domestic oriented than the average Pixar film. However, with Coco greatly expanding the audience for Pixar, as well as supers being overwhelmingly massive in Asia, I'm thinking 37-43% would be most accurate. So given that guy's 531m DOM, we get an overseas of 704m to 904m for a worldwide total of 1235m to 1435m --- However, the issue with this is that Pixar has never had an overseas of more than 650m (TS3), even Coco which did bonkers business in Latin America and China did just 600m OS. So expecting Incredibles 2 to increase that much without a massive breakout in China may be too optimistic. Personally I'd stick with 450/550 split at the moment (on par with Dory), and hope that they increase. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pepsa Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 Olive said that $100m in China isn't that likely, and pixar doesn't build on it's self for audience expansion like the MCU does or like a franchise serie does. It might do very big number, but we were overly optimistic with FD and OS didn't turn up big time for that movie. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avatree Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 (edited) 44 minutes ago, feasby007 said: Looking at other Pixar titles, Incredibles was initially a bit more domestic oriented than the average Pixar film. What? No it wasn't. Toy Story - 51.3% Bugs Life - 44.8% Toy Story 2 - 49.4% Monsters Inc - 48.5% Finding Nemo - 39% Incredibles - 41.3% Cars - 52.8% Edited June 13, 2018 by Ranger Tree Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewart Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Ranger Tree said: What? No it wasn't. Toy Story - 51.3% Bugs Life - 44.8% Toy Story 2 - 49.4% Monsters Inc - 48.5% Finding Nemo - 39% Incredibles - 41.3% Cars - 52.8% Well, technically the average Pixar film includes every pixar film, not just the early ones. In hindsight I should've looked at Pixar films around 2004, not just all of them as a whole. The average for Pixar now is 40%, but Coco with something like 25% almost certainly dragged that down. My bad for not looking at the data more thoroughly 😕 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avatree Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 Disney's animated films are pretty dom heavy but they were especially so in the first decade of Pixar films, Incredibles did comparatively much better overseas than the others. Which i think is due to action being more universal compared to something like toy story. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salvador-232 Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 (edited) 2 hours ago, feasby007 said: However, the issue with this is that Pixar has never had an overseas of more than 650m (TS3), even Coco which did bonkers business in Latin America and China did just 600m OS. So expecting Incredibles 2 to increase that much without a massive breakout in China may be too optimistic. That's true, but Coco did poorly in English speaking countries and other major markets like Germany and Russia. In SE Asia it had legs out of this world but the opening was so weak that for the most part the total ended up being rather unimpressive. Also, it lost at very at least 10-15M USD from Brazil alone due to Disney meddling with cinemas. IMO The Incredibles 2 has a fair chance to top Coco, because I don't think its performance will be that unbalanced around the world Edited June 13, 2018 by salvador-232 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 2 hours ago, feasby007 said: Well, technically the average Pixar film includes every pixar film, not just the early ones. In hindsight I should've looked at Pixar films around 2004, not just all of them as a whole. The average for Pixar now is 40%, but Coco with something like 25% almost certainly dragged that down. My bad for not looking at the data more thoroughly 😕 I also don’t think it’s fair to use the average from later Pixar because overseas markets have grown quite a bit since the first I Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quigley Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 I would only consider this film's run... incredible if it beats Dory's ADJUSTED $514M gross and Nemo's ADJUSTED $516M gross (without the re-release), to become the biggest Pixar film ever. But even then I won't personally be satisfied unless it beats Shrek 2's $650M ADJUSTED gross. And even then, as Ray Subers, had explained, the adjusted figures on box office do not reflect admissions. That's why in one his reports he said that Toy Story 3 sold LESS admissions than Toy Story 2, even though the prior is ahead of the latter on the adjusted BOM chart. So it would probably have to get to about $575M to become the most-attended Pixar film ever and about $725M to beat Shrek 2. And even then, its admission number divided by the country's current population (admissions per capita, let's say) will be lower than that of Nemo, since the country's population was much lower back then. So it would have to reach about $640M in order for anyone to argue that Incredibles 2 and Nemo have comaprable runs and probably and about $810M in order for it to be comaprable to Shrek 2. And even then, if it's not actually a good movie, I won't really be very happy that it did break any of those records. And it is probably clear that Incredibles 2 will go nowhere near such numbers. Hopefully it can cross $500M but the rest is just my own fantasy. It is definitely a cynical way to look at things but, let's face it, the rate of ticket-price inflation is so high, made even higher by the premiums attached to 3D, IMAX and other special cinema formats, that a box office gross doesn't give you any idea whatsoever about the film's actual popularity compared to another film. Of course, this has nothing to do with commerical success, which is a given, even if it comes way below these numbers. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Premium George Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Quigley said: I would only consider this film's run... incredible if it beats Dory's ADJUSTED $514M gross and Nemo's ADJUSTED $516M gross (without the re-release), to become the biggest Pixar film ever. But even then I won't personally be satisfied unless it beats Shrek 2's $650M ADJUSTED gross. And even then, as Ray Subers, had explained, the adjusted figures on box office do not reflect admissions. That's why in one his reports he said that Toy Story 3 sold LESS admissions than Toy Story 2, even though the prior is ahead of the latter on the adjusted BOM chart. So it would probably have to get to about $575M to become the most-attended Pixar film ever and about $725M to beat Shrek 2. And even then, its admission number divided by the country's current population (admissions per capita, let's say) will be lower than that of Nemo, since the country's population was much lower back then. So it would have to reach about $640M in order for anyone to argue that Incredibles 2 and Nemo have comaprable runs and probably and about $810M in order for it to be comaprable to Shrek 2. And even then, if it's not actually a good movie, I won't really be very happy that it did break any of those records. And it is probably clear that Incredibles 2 will go nowhere near such numbers. Hopefully it can cross $500M but the rest is just my own fantasy. It is definitely a cynical way to look at things but, let's face it, the rate of ticket-price inflation is so high, made even higher by the premiums attached to 3D, IMAX and other special cinema formats, that a box office gross doesn't give you any idea whatsoever about the film's actual popularity compared to another film. Of course, this has nothing to do with commerical success, which is a given, even if it comes way below these numbers. This will do More than everyone of those numbers. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewart Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, Premium George said: This will do More than everyone of those numbers. I'm not entirely convinced it'll do over $810m domestic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moviefanatic Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 Ya'll thought BP beating IW was a shock. Wait til this surpasses both of them....(in my dreams). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Premium George Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 1 minute ago, feasby007 said: I'm not entirely convinced it'll do over $810m domestic Easy peasy. This will get the audience of both who watched finding Dory and black panther. First $1 billion dom. Just go along with it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewart Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 13 minutes ago, Premium George said: Easy peasy. This will get the audience of both who watched finding Dory and black panther. First $1 billion dom. Just go along with it. I am now entirely convinced Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewart Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 16 minutes ago, Moviefanatic said: Ya'll thought BP beating IW was a shock. Wait til this surpasses both of them....(in my dreams). Hi there, maybe you'd be interested in this club! (Made before IW released though) Sincerely, your dreams Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moviefanatic Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 24 minutes ago, feasby007 said: Hi there, maybe you'd be interested in this club! (Made before IW released though) Sincerely, your dreams LOL I just visited there. The fanboy in me wanted to join soooo bad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MyMovieCanBeatUpYourMovie Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 (edited) Huh. MovieBob was not particularly impressed. (The couple of reviews I've glanced at makes me wonder if the hard-core fan base response is going to be a bit less glowing than the overall critical response seems to be.) Edited June 13, 2018 by MyMovieCanBeatUpYourMovie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattW Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 Pixar movies in mid-June pretty much all stay even from Friday to Saturday (hopefully this format comes through ok): Shrek 3 Dory Monster's U Inside Out Toy Story 3 Thurs/Midnight 0.907 9.2 2.6 3.7 4 Friday 38.427 45.546 27.873 30.566 37.149 Saturday 47.077 (+22.5%) 45.644 (+2.5%) 28.734 (+3.1%) 30.942 (+1.2%) 37.091 (-0.2%) Sunday 36.125 (-23.3%) 34.669 (-24.0%) 23.222 (-19.2%) 25.232 (-18.5%) 32.067 (-13.5%) Animation in May gets a nice saturday bump but by mid June with schools out there's basically no bump to be had. And with presales they way they are I think's its IM will be at or below Dory's level, 12-15 maybe: Previews - OW Dory 9.2 - 135.5 (x14.68) DM3 4.1 - 72.4 (x17.66) Minions 6.2 - 115.7 (x18.66) Cars 3 2.8 - 53.7 (x19.18) Pets 5.3 - 104.4 (x19.70) Inside Out 3.7 - 90.4 (x24.43) Something like 11 + 45 + 46(+2.2%) + 37(-19.6%) = 139 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
