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Frozen II | Nov 22 2019 | 2nd Most Profitable Movie of 2019. Disney does it again! | Documentary series coming to D+ June 26

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On 7/24/2019 at 9:22 PM, Royce said:

To sum it up: people see Frozen as a "little girls' movie"

 

US and Latin American culture highly emphasize masculinity and this is a movie about not one but two Disney Princesses and "love"

By far the "girliest" movie in the top 50 highest grossing of all time list

A lot of people do (falsely) think that, yet CinemaScore pegged Frozen's DOM female-male split at 57-43, which is well balanced among female-led movies for this market, and better balanced than many of Marvel's movies, which have often skewed more strongly male than Frozen skewed female.  If 80% of its audience had been female, then you might have had a point regarding the DOM market.

 

As for Latin America, I don't know what the audience gender split was, but even if we assume that the original movie skewed far more female than in the DOM, could its numbers not still grow from what they had been?  Today's exchange rates would work against that, but at least in admissions couldn't it grow, or does that only happen for movies that are perceived to be masculine?

 

As for hating on "love" it's kind of a sad statement if men in some cultures really hate on that and think it's not for them.  I consider myself a very masculine man who has mostly so-called "conservative" views (yep, I shoot guns and everything), and I think that love for family has nothing to do with gender.  As you might expect, I generally can't stand romantic comedies, but that's a different sort of thing, and I find the kind of romance in Disney animated features and, for that matter, Titanic quite acceptable.  I think the real problem is that people tend to be prejudiced against things they really know nothing about, and immature about subjects like love of all types.

 

On 7/24/2019 at 9:22 PM, Royce said:

Things loved by young girls usually face backlash and people are proud to hate on them: Titanic, Twilight, Justin Bieber, Frozen

It is what it is, humans hate femininity

A fair number of the haters I've seen are women.  Most of them were driven crazy by the viral songs of Titanic and Frozen, or at least that's what they say.  Frankly, what I'm sick of hearing is how sick these people are of these songs!  They must listen to a lot of radio broadcasts or something, because I never heard either "My Heart Will Go On" (which was just in the credits anyway) or "Let It Go" all that many times back in the day.

 

On 7/24/2019 at 9:22 PM, Royce said:

Frozen 2's trailers are all action-oriented and darker colors, darker tone, no singing and romance, more masculine

Wouldn't this help some, though?

 

On 7/24/2019 at 9:22 PM, Royce said:

If Elsa and Anna were men, Frozen 1 would've done Incredibles 2 numbers DOM

Why didn't The Incredibles do anywhere close to Incredibles 2 numbers DOM?  It's because the latter was an anticipated sequel, of course.  Couldn't Frozen II likewise grow in DOM, especially since the ad campaign has succeeded in changing the perceived image of the franchise?

 

On 7/24/2019 at 9:32 PM, cannastop said:

It would also be a completely different movie.

Completely?  Couldn't the same story with only minor differences have been told with male protagonists?  Elsa and Anna were never super-girly girls doing super-girly things.  A few things would change, undoubtedly, but I think the story essentially would have been the same.

 

On 7/25/2019 at 1:16 PM, meriodejaneiro said:

Well, Disney is already on it ... it's called Onward (two brothers on adventure).

That's Pixar, however, and of course they always feel the most comfortable with male protagonists, given their internal culture.  They don't seem to know what to do with female characters, except perhaps for Jessie, but she's a tomboy anyway.  Is anyone going to suggest that Onward will be more successful DOM because of the gender of its protagonists? ;)

 

On 7/31/2019 at 8:53 AM, frozenheart1993 said:

A friend of China who is engaged in film import review said that he has seen the whole film. Disney’s last such a bad work is Chicken Little.

Just from what I know (and have confirmed), Frozen II should be a far superior movie to Chicken Little, even if they were to royally screw up everything else.  I think someone must be kidding.

 

20 hours ago, FrozenUnicorn said:

Pretty sure Japan will be massive. The first Frozen was loved there. 

 

Not sure about South Korea though.

Frozen II will be big in Japan for sure, but the drop from the original might possibly be quite big, too.  Frozen was a true phenomenon there that will be difficult to match at the box office (especially since sequels tend to drop in Japan in general), while in the DOM market I think it could have done better, and WDAS appear to have made some choices that will give the sequel a decent chance to grow from the original at the box office.

 

As for South Korea, I don't know because I think its phenomenal success there had a lot to do with its songs, and this aspect might be difficult to replicate.  They're really quite finicky about western animation over there, so it is very difficult to predict.  It sure would help to know how the trailers are being received.  If the Koreans would most like a rehash of the original movie, then they aren't going to get it.  The sequel will be more like the original than we've been shown thus far, but they don't know that.

 

14 hours ago, justvision said:

Let's see: Korea + Japan = above 200M. China about 300M, NA about 700M. Rest of the wrold about 800M. Doable.

 

A lot depends on whether Frozen has a song or two as impactful as Let It Go.

As impactful but not nearly as viral and overplayed would be the ideal scenario.

 

45 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I have only seen bits and pieces of 1st movie on flight but the movie did not scream sequel. it was also a journey that was wrapped up.

Personally, I completely agree with you, but in being forced to make a sequel they had never intended to make, the directors have chosen for their sequel concept the one thing that seemingly the vast majority of people have been wanting to know: why Elsa has cryokinetic powers.  I'm perfectly happy with having no explanation whatsoever (she was simply born with them, like Harry Potter) and from a story point of view would rather not have an explanation, but I'm forced to admit three things: 1) many people really want to know about the origins of Elsa's powers, 2) if this were real life then Elsa would certainly also want to know (a natural story progression), and 3) the particular choices the directors have made in going this route are not only very good in and of themselves but I think are very good for the box office at the same time.

 

The directors are not giving the audience more of what they think the audience want (i.e. a futile rehash scenario fueled by the directors' own egos), they're giving the audience what they really, actually want, and in an organic way that justifies making Elsa into a freaking superhero! :D  Additionally, it's part-prequel and part-sequel all at once, covering all of the bases.  If they and WDAS can nail the story and emotions and all that, which they tend to be rather good at, then I really have no idea what Frozen II may be capable of.  No, I'm not in the $2B WW camp, but it could beat the original DOM and WW, and maybe it could do so handily.

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36 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Would be a pretty big shock if it didn't considering Frozen's OS is nearly 200m higher than TLJ with several years of inflation on it. 

True though TLJ dom is over 200M higher than Frozen dom and WW is only 56M in TLJ favor. So this is going to be a nailbiter to watch assuming Frozen increases dom (and OS) and TROS increases dom. 

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Lol at Latin America and masculinity thing.

 

What happened with Frozen and with all Disney's November releases is that November is a bad date for animation in the region. Disney know this and faces the dilemma:Give a day to day release and hope for the best or delay until summer and risk piratery. And with Frozen you have the additional problem of ¿who wants to see a movie about Ice kingdoms in summer? There's a reason that Moana was the most successful summer release in the region outside Coco which is a totally different league for obvious reasons. 

 

The fact is that June or July animated releases will ALWAYS gross more. Winter's Holidays are the Chinese New Year of South America. Coco already hit the ceiling of what can be achieved outside that period. Maybe Frozen 2 can match that considering it's going to have way better marketing but is totally unfair to ask it to be as big as TS4 or Minions. TS4 had the biggest BO period of the year, Frozen will face the worst one (Christmas - New Year blackhole) on its late run if given a day to day release

 

 

Edited by salvador-232
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I don't think that it'll cross $2B, but it's very possible since Frozen has grown significantly since its release. I think that is way more hyped than Incredibles 2 and TS4 overseas. The first one did $827M OS-China, which is the 6th highest ever behind Avatar, Endgame, Titanic, The Force Awakens, IW, and Deathly Hallows Part 2. $850M~$1,000M OS-China, $100~$150M China, $500M~$600M domestic. $1.45B~$1.75B. Im predicting $1.6B. 

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21 hours ago, salvador-232 said:

Lol at Latin America and masculinity thing.

 

What happened with Frozen and with all Disney's November releases is that November is a bad date for animation in the region. Disney know this and faces the dilemma:Give a day to day release and hope for the best or delay until summer and risk piratery. And with Frozen you have the additional problem of ¿who wants to see a movie about Ice kingdoms in summer? There's a reason that Moana was the most successful summer release in the region outside Coco which is a totally different league for obvious reasons. 

 

The fact is that June or July animated releases will ALWAYS gross more. Winter's Holidays are the Chinese New Year of South America. Coco already hit the ceiling of what can be achieved outside that period. Maybe Frozen 2 can match that considering it's going to have way better marketing but is totally unfair to ask it to be as big as TS4 or Minions. TS4 had the biggest BO period of the year, Frozen will face the worst one (Christmas - New Year blackhole) on its late run if given a day to day release

 

 

Is piracy still such a problem?

 

Cause Pixar in Germany at least never has bothered with day to day releases for their big summer movie in Germany. TS4 gets the closest release I can imagine in forever. normally they come out in the beginning of October and not mid of August.

 

Other movies release mostly on the same date (or one or two weeks difference) though.

 

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5 hours ago, Taruseth said:

Is piracy still such a problem?

 

Cause Pixar in Germany at least never has bothered with day to day releases for their big summer movie in Germany. TS4 gets the closest release I can imagine in forever. normally they come out in the beginning of October and not mid of August.

 

Other movies release mostly on the same date (or one or two weeks difference) though.

 

Yes. The problem with delaying until summer is that the digital release hits in the middle of the run and after that piracy becomes rampant. 

 

Here's for example the effect it had in Coco (Coco was actually given a day to day release in Chile but it was so leggy that it still illustrates my point)

 r7iabNl.png

 

 

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10 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

Definitely not. There's nowhere near enough room for growth for a doubling admissions situation. 

I didn't say the double, of course it can't make the double from 1.3 B but i mean there will be a huge or very solid increase everywhere, especially in the Us. Definitely it can do 500-550 M in the us.

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16 hours ago, maxalcamo said:

This gonna be Shrek 2 to Shrek. 

Man I dunno, a Shrek/Despicable Me jump hasn't really ever happened for a movie where the original made over $300m except when the sequel took more than 10 years to arrive.

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5 hours ago, cannastop said:

Man I dunno, a Shrek/Despicable Me jump hasn't really ever happened for a movie where the original made over $300m except when the sequel took more than 10 years to arrive.

True, but neither of those had quite as big a cultural impact as Frozen. Well, DM sort of did because of the Minions, but really only because of them. Hence that movie about the Minions made over a billion as much as people dislike them.

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2 minutes ago, FrozenUnicorn said:

True, but neither of those had quite as big a cultural impact as Frozen. Well, DM sort of did because of the Minions, but really only because of them. Hence that movie about the Minions made over a billion as much as people dislike them.

I think the cultural impact reached saturation in 2014 and just kind of stayed at that level. I expect this sequel to be flat.

 

Also Shrek was HUGE at the time.

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7 hours ago, cannastop said:

Man I dunno, a Shrek/Despicable Me jump hasn't really ever happened for a movie where the original made over $300m except when the sequel took more than 10 years to arrive.

Shrek adjusts to 426m. Shrek 2 did 640m adjusted. 

 

Frozen adjusts to 441m. A sequel above 600m isn't hard to believe. 

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If you ask me, the argument isn't Shrek to Shrek 2, it's The Incredibles to The Incredibles 2.  I won't say no one saw that huge of an Inc 2 jump coming, coz maybe some folks did.  But it just utterly decimated most expectations.  Especially the expectations pretty far out.


Sure plenty of people suggested 400m+ for Inc 2 And quite a few were in the Inc 2 > FD club.

 

But I personally don't remember many 600m ones.

 

Either way, there is precedence in the DOM market for an animated film to make a large jump in attendance.  Pretty rare.  But the Frozen phenomenon is pretty rare as well.

 

Now I'm not suggesting Frozen will do that.  It started at a much higher point than Incredibles did, after all.  But a 25% jump in attendance instead of a 50% one sounds possible to me.

 

Adj Frozen right now is around 445 to 450 or so.  Jump that 25 percent and you get 555 to 560. I've been in the 540 to 570 ish range for a while now, so I don't think a 20% to 25% jump is a super unreasonable ask. 

 

It requires nearly everything to go right, yes.  But so far so good on that scale.

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