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Frozen II | Nov 22 2019 | 2nd Most Profitable Movie of 2019. Disney does it again! | Documentary series coming to D+ June 26

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Frozen Blacklash was more a Meme than real Backlash.  People weren't upset with the movie, they just wanted everyone to "let it go".  But that hooplah was like 2015ish.  Now everyone is saying the same thing about Baby Shark.  

 

And this time of blacklash wouldn't hurt the new one, since the "blacklash" was 'oh my god, we need something new, please please, something new.'

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14 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I also know there's a danger in on YT analytics after Pika Pika, and to a degree TLK.

 

But let's look at TLK for a second.  Just on the main channel:

 

TLK (teaser): 1.3m upvotes

TLK (trailer): 693k  upvotes

 

That's a pretty harsh drop.  But whatever, still plenty of upvotes.

 

Now let's look at Frozen 2;

F2 (teaser): 852k upvotes

F2 (trailer): 807k upvotes

 

The full trailer has been out for four fewer months and has nearly caught up with the first teaser.  The trailer views of both are nearly identical (41m each).

 

I thought for a while that the drop in TLK's view count and like count was a warning sign that it wouldn't explode, and look at that.  While it's massively successful, not quite as much as it could.

 

Frozen 2, meanwhile is either holding steady or gaining in popularity given the time difference between the two trailers.

 

So with all of that in mind, again:  What Frozen backlash?

Definitely! The Lion King, similarly to Detectice Pikachu, had curiosity factor in it. I didn't/wont watch The Lion King in theaters; I just wanted to check out the CGI. How massive Frozen 2 will be depends on the WoM, which I expect to be excellent..

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2 hours ago, cannastop said:

wait. Weren't you just saying that the first Frozen peaked popularity?

 

Exactly, I don't want Frozen 2 to be seen as a disappointment even if it does well (but not $600M dom or $2B ww)

The same thing happened with Age of Ultron

 

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

Wow.  Different people have different opinions.

 

Who'd thunk it.

I'm trying to follow the logic here. Wouldn't the success of TS4 from a low OW point to a landscape where Frozen could take off?

 

As for this:

 

Some people have been loudly demanding a sequel to Frozen since approximately five seconds after Frozen took off.

 

I really am struggling to understand what your point here.

 

Again we gotta stop comparing the Pixar sequels with Frozen 2

FD, I2 and TS4 had that nostalgia factor

TS4 can also be seen as the "finale" of a beloved franchise that's 24 years old plus it has the rave reviews from critics (97% on RT)

 

Frozen is merely 6 years old

 

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

Also, I find the comparison to Shrek 3 odd as there is literally zero sign to any sort of Frozen backlash out there.  As @captainwondyful pointed out, the falderal over Olaf wasn't about Frozen, per se, but being in front of something unrelated.

 

But even if I granted that Olaf damaged the brand, and I don't, just where is the sign for the Frozen backlash that would signal a Shrek 2 to Shrek 3 drop.

 

I mean, let's talk about Shrek 2 for a second. I am one of the biggest proponents of taking user ratings with a grain of salt, but where exactly is the critical re-evaluation for Frozen?  Shrek 2's Audience Rating on RT is 69/100. Meanwhile. Frozen is 85/100.     

 

Okay, lol audience ratings. I'm right with you there.  But how do you explain how Frozen is one of THE biggest moneymakers for Disney?

 

I can see Frozen 2 being flat or  falling a bit, even if I don't think it will.  I've talked about how it could happen quite a bit (effing with nostalgia is dan-ger-ous).  But what I don't see is any sort of Frozen backlash out there right now.  Just the opposite.

 

And if one is going to point to LOUD NOISES on the INTERNET as proof that something isn't popular, then nothing would be as just about every last thing that gets enough attention to get cared about also gets enough people to piss and moan about how awful it all is.

 

After all, pissing and moaning about how awfully it is that some things are popular is one of the major drivers of internet traffic. :)

 

A peak is a peak and Frozen's was just massive

It's just hard to see F2 being bigger than that

That's what I meant when I mentioned Shrek 3

 

Those loud noises on the internet seem to pick and choose which popular movies to crap on huh?

Never seen any hate towards the Avengers movies or whatever

 

---

 

Anyway...

I guess I had a lot of pent up anger, I gotta stop taking these movies seriously lol

That one comment before my post just set me off, my apologies, didn't mean to generalize all of you with "bandwagoners"

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2 hours ago, Porthos said:

I also know there's a danger in on YT analytics after Pika Pika, and to a degree TLK.

 

But let's look at TLK for a second.  Just on the main channel:

 

TLK (teaser): 1.3m upvotes

TLK (trailer): 693k  upvotes

 

That's a pretty harsh drop.  But whatever, still plenty of upvotes.

 

Now let's look at Frozen 2;

F2 (teaser): 852k upvotes

F2 (trailer): 807k upvotes

 

The full trailer has been out for four fewer months and has nearly caught up with the first teaser.  The trailer views of both are nearly identical (41m each).

 

I thought for a while that the drop in TLK's view count and like count was a warning sign that it wouldn't explode, and look at that.  While it's massively successful, not quite as much as it could.

 

Frozen 2, meanwhile is either holding steady or gaining in popularity given the time difference between the two trailers.

 

So with all of that in mind, again:  What Frozen backlash?

I still wouldn’t look into it too much. The alternate channels for the Frozen 2 teaser had a massive amount of views and likes.

 

Frozen 2 teaser:

Main YT: 41M views/852K likes

Alt YT: 40.6M/658K likes

Alt YT: 21.5M/157K likes

Twitter: 19.1M

Facebook: 18.5M

Alt YT: 10.3M/37K likes

Instagram: 6.4M

 

157.4M views/1.7M likes

 

We know that it had 116M views in the first 24 hours, and obviously not all of those are from what I listed. That means it had a massive amount of views after the 24 hour period.

 

Frozen 2 trailer: 

Main YT: 41M views/807K likes

Alt YT: 20.1M views/182K likes

Facebook: 9.2M views

Twitter: 6.7M views
Instagram: 3M views

Alt YT: 2.8M views/24K likes

Alt YT: 1.4M views/19K likes

 

84.1M views/1.03M likes

 

We already knew that the Frozen 2 trailer didn’t make as much of a splash. But it also looks like it had a big drop.

 

Doesn’t mean interest has died down of course. But there was a huge curiosity factor with the first teaser like TLK.

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14 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

I still wouldn’t look into it too much. The alternate channels for the Frozen 2 teaser had a massive amount of views and likes.

 

Frozen 2 teaser:

Main YT: 41M views/852K likes

Alt YT: 40.6M/658K likes

Alt YT: 21.5M/157K likes

Twitter: 19.1M

Facebook: 18.5M

Alt YT: 10.3M/37K likes

Instagram: 6.4M

 

157.4M views/1.7M likes

 

We know that it had 116M views in the first 24 hours, and obviously not all of those are from what I listed. That means it had a massive amount of views after the 24 hour period.

 

Frozen 2 trailer: 

Main YT: 41M views/807K likes

Alt YT: 20.1M views/182K likes

Facebook: 9.2M views

Twitter: 6.7M views
Instagram: 3M views

Alt YT: 2.8M views/24K likes

Alt YT: 1.4M views/19K likes

 

84.1M views/1.03M likes

 

We already knew that the Frozen 2 trailer didn’t make as much of a splash. But it also looks like it had a big drop.

 

Doesn’t mean interest has died down of course. But there was a huge curiosity factor with the first teaser like TLK.

It's normal though for teasers having way more interest than the other trailers, with Frozen 2 even the second trailer have really impressive numbers, the teaser was just insane exactly because like you said, not only break the record but also keep high numbers after the first day.

 

The interest is gigantic, it could easily grow from the first, maybe not the way some people want, but still a solid jump.

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49 minutes ago, Royce said:

 

Exactly, I don't want Frozen 2 to be seen as a disappointment even if it does well (but not $600M dom or $2B ww)

The same thing happened with Age of Ultron

 

 

Again we gotta stop comparing the Pixar sequels with Frozen 2

FD, I2 and TS4 had that nostalgia factor

TS4 can also be seen as the "finale" of a beloved franchise that's 24 years old plus it has the rave reviews from critics (97% on RT)

 

Frozen is merely 6 years old

 

 

A peak is a peak and Frozen's was just massive

It's just hard to see F2 being bigger than that

That's what I meant when I mentioned Shrek 3

 

Those loud noises on the internet seem to pick and choose which popular movies to crap on huh?

Never seen any hate towards the Avengers movies or whatever

 

---

 

Anyway...

I guess I had a lot of pent up anger, I gotta stop taking these movies seriously lol

That one comment before my post just set me off, my apologies, didn't mean to generalize all of you with "bandwagoners"

The point is that Frozen hasn't peaked popularity. Hell, Toy Story 4 and The Lion King (2019) passed it recently. It's the 8th highest-grossing animated movie domestically when it certainly doesn't feel like it as shown by blu-ray sales. There is ton of room to increase in growing markets, even if it doesn't feel significant. If you remove the OS grosses from Despicable Me 3 and Frozen, Despicable Me 3 is actually ahead of it overseas. I don't believe that there is any other prospect to show how big Frozen 2, and there's like 1% chance it reaches $2B. $1.6B ($310M + Frozen) seems about right, especially if Disney doesn't disappoint its audience. 

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I will eat crow on this if need be as I said don't expect 650 domestic that said Frozen 2 with great reviews is so gonna hit 500+ minimum domestic and 1.3B minimum WW Imo likely 1.5+

 

We shall see..TLK is gonna hit 1.5 and it wasn't even good. Not bad or good just Ok. Frozen can't do that but it's gonna be awesome at least I hope :)

 

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19 minutes ago, cannastop said:

I think realistically, Frozen 2 is going to make $150m in Japan. Just going by declines from other record breaking movies like Spirited Away or Weathering With You.

I don't think so. Just because they were made by Miyazaki, it doesn't mean that they have to do the same numbers. I think a 20% decrease similar to Harry Potter 1 & 2 is more likely.

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14 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

I still wouldn’t look into it too much. The alternate channels for the Frozen 2 teaser had a massive amount of views and likes.

 

Frozen 2 teaser:

Main YT: 41M views/852K likes

Alt YT: 40.6M/658K likes

Alt YT: 21.5M/157K likes

Twitter: 19.1M

Facebook: 18.5M

Alt YT: 10.3M/37K likes

Instagram: 6.4M

 

157.4M views/1.7M likes

 

We know that it had 116M views in the first 24 hours, and obviously not all of those are from what I listed. That means it had a massive amount of views after the 24 hour period.

 

Frozen 2 trailer: 

Main YT: 41M views/807K likes

Alt YT: 20.1M views/182K likes

Facebook: 9.2M views

Twitter: 6.7M views
Instagram: 3M views

Alt YT: 2.8M views/24K likes

Alt YT: 1.4M views/19K likes

 

84.1M views/1.03M likes

 

We already knew that the Frozen 2 trailer didn’t make as much of a splash. But it also looks like it had a big drop.

 

Doesn’t mean interest has died down of course. But there was a huge curiosity factor with the first teaser like TLK.

I still haven't watched the Frozen 2 trailer lol (the teaser already sold me)

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2 hours ago, cannastop said:

I think realistically, Frozen 2 is going to make $150m in Japan. Just going by declines from other record breaking movies like Spirited Away or Your Name.

 

This is about what I'm thinking also. Sure it could be less of a drop or potentially even way more, but I think a 40% drop should be the target. 

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On 8/3/2019 at 5:42 PM, VenomXXR said:

 

Comparing a filler to the main course is like comparing Ant-Man to Infinity War. They may be in the same realm but they aren't the same beast. 

Except in that case the quality of Ant-Man is considerably greater. 

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On 8/8/2019 at 12:46 AM, rihrey said:

Has anyone noticed how fast the trailer views have been growing lately? it's at 46,7 million right now, and it reached 40M just a few days ago.

I noticed that a few days ago.  It's almost at 47 million now.  Not sure what caused it to spike like that.  Is the trailer playing before The Lion King?  Maybe that's generated additional interest?

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6 hours ago, Morieris said:

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/afonsosalcedo_mywork-losangeles-hustle-activity-6565604647053201408-kr3Y

 

(the site tried to embed it but I have no idea if it can embed LinkedIn posts)

 

The lighting is going on until at least the end of September.

interesting. I don't know if that's typical turnaround though.

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