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Shazam! | April 5, 2019 | 21st Most Profitable Film of 2019

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8 minutes ago, Premium George said:

Not to say anything about shazam, but correlation has been amazing. Cumulative sales have been 90% in the zone.

This year BO tracking thread has destroyed industry tracking. Fandago numbers are the best resource we have.

As for shazam, JW2 should be used. Also, Matthew is shivampa, a troll.

I think the only factor right now making this difficult is that it did the 3.3m in previews on that Saturday and it’s skewing the presale numbers a bit for actual tracking(on here I mean).

 

Mon-Thurs this week should help a bit but with endgame tickets going on sale tomorrow I think this is gonna be a tough one to predict. I still think it’s going to open close to original trade tracking of 45mil or so, at least that’s what I’m hoping for. 

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4 minutes ago, cax16 said:

I think the only factor right now making this difficult is that it did the 3.3m in previews on that Saturday and it’s skewing the presale numbers a bit for actual tracking(on here I mean).

 

Mon-Thurs this week should help a bit but with endgame tickets going on sale tomorrow I think this is gonna be a tough one to predict. I still think it’s going to open close to original trade tracking of 45mil or so, at least that’s what I’m hoping for. 

Exactly, we don't know exact cumulative sales  for w/e due to screenings. I predicted $80m but now I can see below it but not below $60m. Let's see.

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7 minutes ago, cax16 said:

I think the only factor right now making this difficult is that it did the 3.3m in previews on that Saturday and it’s skewing the presale numbers a bit for actual tracking(on here I mean).

 

Mon-Thurs this week should help a bit but with endgame tickets going on sale tomorrow I think this is gonna be a tough one to predict. I still think it’s going to open close to original trade tracking of 45mil or so, at least that’s what I’m hoping for. 

I think it can easily open to 50M+ due to good wom and being much more family friendly. 

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Just now, Matthew said:

I think it can easily open to 50M+ due to good wom and being much more family friendly. 

I’m sure it can, but without seeing concrete numbers I really have no clue what it’s opening too. I want this to open to 100mil but I know that’s not happening. 

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For what is worth, now we can officially say that WB is just waiting for WoM to spread like wildfire while they do nothing marketing wise.I mean it’s Monday before release and there’s nothing...no late show interviews,no countless YouTube interviews,Hell the film barely pops on my feed when some time ago I was occasionaly seeing something for a film like serenity.

 

Anyway,will still go for 55M OW and hope for the best.

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7 hours ago, Matthew said:

Last 7 days for CM before the opening week :  65625 Fandango presales 

 

At this time CM was doing normal as review embargo and Premiere hasn't happened yet. So CM presales were normal at this time. 

 

Last 7 days for Shazam before the opening week :  7353 Fandango presales

 

That's 11% of CM. 

 

Hope movie do bonkers these 4 days otherwise 55M+ is impossible. 

 

Pre sales do not paint the full picture i wish people would stop getting boners over it.

4 hours ago, Matthew said:

Totally wrong. 

Solo presales were higher only on First 24 hrs

 

CM all over was always behind BP. 

 

Just because Shazam is not doing good in presales doesn't mean you can say anything. 

First 24 hours is not that relevant solo still had heavy pre sales over all yet fell like a rock and didnt open that wrong , CM was close as hell to BP yet there was a gap.

 

People so hung up on Pre sales like they mean anything you can do bad in pre sales and still open 50m+ 

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2 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

I saw a commercial earlier where the tag-line was "best super-hero movie since last month" does WB have no hope for this?

 

Given the word on it...

 

Im guessing they’re just being funny.  And know it’s not gonna do THAT well.

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2 hours ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

I saw a commercial earlier where the tag-line was "best super-hero movie since last month" does WB have no hope for this?

Yeh they’re just being funny. They’re probably fully aware that reviews are better too. 

 

I liked it much more than Captain Marvel too ;) 

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Birmingham AL area presales report

 

Unsurprisingly, this is the lowest movie I've tracked since 2015 and I skipped Aquaman last December because I was out of town most of that presales run.  With two days to go, it has about 80% of the shows that WW had (not tickets).  

 

Shazam

Thursday previews : 21 shows, 0 sellout

Friday : 43 shows, 0 sellout

 

Wonder Woman

Thursday previews : 26 shows, 0 sellout

Friday : 54 shows, 0 sellout

 

Below is a chart of all movies tracked since SW:TFA at the time of their first showtimes.

 

 Thursday showtimesThursday selloutsFriday showtimesFriday selloutsBO - OW

 

  Thursday showtimes Thursday sellouts Friday showtimes Friday sellouts BO - OW
IW 66 5 143 1 258M$
SW - TFA 101 35 172 14 248M$
TLJ 68 10 136 4 220M$
BP 54 1 125 0 202M$
CA - CW 57 2 143 0 179M$
BvS 40 1 120 0 166M$
SW - R1 65 5 145 2 155M$
Cap Marvel 55 1 118 0 153M$
GOTG 2 51 1 154 0 147M$
SS 36 0 110 0 134M$
DP2 33 0 89 0 125M$
IT 23 0 86 0 123M$
Thor 3 37 0 103 0 123M$
SM:H 35 0 111 0 117M$
WW 31 0 91 0 103M$
JL 36 0 95 0 94M$
Solo 38 0 104 0 84M$
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9 hours ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

I saw a commercial earlier where the tag-line was "best super-hero movie since last month" does WB have no hope for this?

The film is playing up the "break the 4th wall" type marketing that worked with Deadpool. In addition, the film doesn't take itself too seriously, based on the trailers. This is tongue-in-cheek advertising.

 

That said, I have my tickets for Thursday at 7:15pm and I fully expect it to be cheesy and even cringe worthy at times. We shall see. My theater only had 6 other seats sold when I bought the ticket yesterday so...., lower OW incoming I'd guess pending lots of walkups. 

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I'm really hoping WOM pushes this to 55m+. I got to see it at an early screening and thought it was fantastic! I've heard the production budget was around $80m so i guess anything $40m+ opening weekend it still good? i'd still love to see it go over predictions by a good amount

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4 minutes ago, TheDarkKnightOfSteel said:

Yeah at this point i’m not seeing this breaking out.But with a 80M  budget and minimal marketing it will still turn a good profit for WB.China and US alone should be  enough for this to break even.

 

I mean if it reaches 500m that is still decent. 

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