alisson23 Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 (edited) Predict! Edited November 2, 2014 by MazeRunner23 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 (edited) 200M. It's a good target and I think it'll be a pretty leggy movie. Edited August 20, 2014 by James 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 I don't know, I need to see more of it before predicting. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tommycruise Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 200M. It's a good target and I think it'll be a pretty leggy movie.This 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CJohn Posted August 21, 2014 Share Posted August 21, 2014 125M Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
norbar Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 200M. It's a good target and I think it'll be a pretty leggy movie. You are optimistic. It looks better than mortal instruments or the giver but I think it will have a similar pattern to Jack the giant slayer with around 130-140M international. If the movie is decent I see it going maybe to 170 like Eragon but looking how it shifted dates and how little effort the US distributor has put into creating early hype I doubt it's anything close to that. So in the end 130-140. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peeta Tong Karanasios Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 You are optimistic. It looks better than mortal instruments or the giver but I think it will have a similar pattern to Jack the giant slayer with around 130-140M international. If the movie is decent I see it going maybe to 170 like Eragon but looking how it shifted dates and how little effort the US distributor has put into creating early hype I doubt it's anything close to that. So in the end 130-140. i believe 150m 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 (edited) You are optimistic. It looks better than mortal instruments or the giver but I think it will have a similar pattern to Jack the giant slayer with around 130-140M international. If the movie is decent I see it going maybe to 170 like Eragon but looking how it shifted dates and how little effort the US distributor has put into creating early hype I doubt it's anything close to that. So in the end 130-140. I made my estimate based on the anticipation in my country, which is big despite the fact that the books were never published here and 'Teen Wolf' is not on TV. Europe will do big number for this and the marketplace is empty. 200M is not that much. Edited August 22, 2014 by James 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mockingjay Raphael Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 140M 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alisson23 Posted August 24, 2014 Author Share Posted August 24, 2014 (edited) My Prediction for now comparing with other YA franchises and September releases Argentina $ 1.000.000 Australia $ 10.000.000 Austria $ 1.050.000 Belgium $ 2.500.000 Bolivia $ 200.000 Brazil $ 8.000.000 Bulgaria $ 250.000 Chile $ 1.000.000 China $ 30.000.000 Colombia $ 1.500.000 Croatia $ 160.000 Czech Republic $ 300.000 Denmark $ 2.000.000 Ecuador $ 400.000 Egypt $ 120.000 Estonia $ 15.000 Finland $ 1.500.000 France $ 12.800.000 Germany $ 12.000.000 Ghana $ 250.000 Greece $ 500.000 Hong Kong $ 1.200.000 Hungary $ 400.000 Iceland $ 150.000 India $ 300.000 Indonesia $ 2.000.000 Israel $ 300.000 Italy $ 2.800.000 Japan $ 6.000.000 Lebanon $ 200.000 Lithuania $ 50.000 Malaysia $ 1.800.000 Mexico $ 9.000.000 Netherlands $ 3.000.000 New Zealand $ 2.200.000 Nigeria $ 65.000 Norway $ 2.000.000 Peru $ 800.000 Philippines $ 2.000.000 Poland $ 1.000.000 Portugal $ 1.000.000 Romania $ 700.000 Russia - CIS $ 9.000.000 Serbia & Montenegro $ 40.000 Singapore $ 2.500.000 Slovakia $ 100.000 Slovenia $ 100.000 South Africa (Entire Region) $ 600.000 South Korea $ 4.500.000 Spain $ 8.000.000 Sweden $ 2.500.000 Taiwan $ 1.500.000 Thailand $ 1.800.000 Turkey $ 1.000.000 Ukraine $ 400.000 United Arab Emirates $ 1.800.000 United Kingdom $ 15.000.000 Uruguay $ 150.000 Venezuela $ 2.000.000 Other Countries $ 6.500.000 OS TOTAL - 150M (180M with China) Edited August 24, 2014 by MazeRunner23 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnny Wiseau Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 My Prediction for now comparing with other YA franchises and September releases Argentina $ 1.000.000 Australia $ 10.000.000 Austria $ 1.050.000 Belgium $ 2.500.000 Bolivia $ 200.000 Brazil $ 8.000.000 Bulgaria $ 250.000 Chile $ 1.000.000 China $ 30.000.000 Colombia $ 1.500.000 Croatia $ 160.000 Czech Republic $ 300.000 Denmark $ 2.000.000 Ecuador $ 400.000 Egypt $ 120.000 Estonia $ 15.000 Finland $ 1.500.000 France $ 12.800.000 Germany $ 12.000.000 Ghana $ 250.000 Greece $ 500.000 Hong Kong $ 1.200.000 Hungary $ 400.000 Iceland $ 150.000 India $ 300.000 Indonesia $ 2.000.000 Israel $ 300.000 Italy $ 2.800.000 Japan $ 6.000.000 Lebanon $ 200.000 Lithuania $ 50.000 Malaysia $ 1.800.000 Mexico $ 9.000.000 Netherlands $ 3.000.000 New Zealand $ 2.200.000 Nigeria $ 65.000 Norway $ 2.000.000 Peru $ 800.000 Philippines $ 2.000.000 Poland $ 1.000.000 Portugal $ 1.000.000 Romania $ 700.000 Russia - CIS $ 9.000.000 Serbia & Montenegro $ 40.000 Singapore $ 2.500.000 Slovakia $ 100.000 Slovenia $ 100.000 South Africa (Entire Region) $ 600.000 South Korea $ 4.500.000 Spain $ 8.000.000 Sweden $ 2.500.000 Taiwan $ 1.500.000 Thailand $ 1.800.000 Turkey $ 1.000.000 Ukraine $ 400.000 United Arab Emirates $ 1.800.000 United Kingdom $ 15.000.000 Uruguay $ 150.000 Venezuela $ 2.000.000 Other Countries $ 6.500.000 OS TOTAL - 150M (180M with China) seems reasonable..though I'd say 125 mil on the safe side..it could pull Divergent numbers os 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alisson23 Posted August 24, 2014 Author Share Posted August 24, 2014 (edited) seems reasonable..though I'd say 125 mil on the safe side..it could pull Divergent numbers osDivergent could have did much better numbers OS if it was released on the same weekend DOM. September is a weak month. I think the OW won't be sooo high for Maze runner but the WOM will help it with good legs. Other thing that should help Maze Runner is it isn't a film ''patriotic'' as Hunger Games and Divergent are. Edited August 24, 2014 by MazeRunner23 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CJohn Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 1M in Portugal?! No way. See the Divergent result over Easter holidays and late April/early May holidays and now cut it in half. That is a reasonable total for MR here, not 1M. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alisson23 Posted August 24, 2014 Author Share Posted August 24, 2014 (edited) 1M in Portugal?! No way. See the Divergent result over Easter holidays and late April/early May holidays and now cut it in half. That is a reasonable total for MR here, not 1M. Come on, Cjohn. Divergent had too many heavy competitions. Maze Runner won't. Something close 1M is likely. This is only a estimate. Edited August 24, 2014 by MazeRunner23 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CJohn Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 (edited) Come on, Cjohn. Divergent had too many heavy competitions. Maze Runner won't. Something close 1M is likely. This is only a estimate. No way, you don't know this market. Believe me, Divergent had everything going for it here. Superhero movies are dead here. TASM2 and CA2 had shit results. Divergent sold only 7000 tickets less than TASM2 and 12000 tickets less than CA2. It is pretty much nothing. Noah was the big movie of Easter and that was for adults. Maze Runner won't touch 1M. Maybe something like 400-450k (same as the first Percy Jackson). Maze Runner won't have any sort of holidays to bump his weekdays and overall results. Divergent benefited a lot from those. It was the main event for teens on Easter. Edited August 24, 2014 by CJohn 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alisson23 Posted August 24, 2014 Author Share Posted August 24, 2014 No way, you don't know this market. Believe me, Divergent had everything going for it here. Superhero movies are dead here. TASM2 and CA2 had shit results. Divergent sold only 7000 tickets less than TASM2 and 12000 tickets less than CA2. It is pretty much nothing. Noah was the big movie of Easter and that was for adults. Maze Runner won't touch 1M. Maybe something like 400-450k (same as the first Percy Jackson). Maze Runner won't have any sort of holidays to bump his weekdays and overall results. Divergent benefited a lot from those. It was the main event for teens on Easter. , I will revise and update the list next month. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CJohn Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 But Portugal is a very small market. It won't really matter in the grand scheme of things I am just saying why 1M will be pretty much impossible to achieve here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alisson23 Posted August 24, 2014 Author Share Posted August 24, 2014 But Portugal is a very small market. It won't really matter in the grand scheme of things I am just saying why 1M will be pretty much impossible to achieve here. I see If it do more than Percy Jackson numbers in your country, will be very good for me 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tower Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 No way, you don't know this market. Believe me, Divergent had everything going for it here. Superhero movies are dead here. TASM2 and CA2 had shit results. Divergent sold only 7000 tickets less than TASM2 and 12000 tickets less than CA2. It is pretty much nothing. Noah was the big movie of Easter and that was for adults. Maze Runner won't touch 1M. Maybe something like 400-450k (same as the first Percy Jackson). Maze Runner won't have any sort of holidays to bump his weekdays and overall results. Divergent benefited a lot from those. It was the main event for teens on Easter. Yeah comparing those Portugal numbers to the Israel numbers looks wrong. Catching Fire and the Percy Films made more in Israel and the Harry Potter films made a little more in Portugal. Those numbers certainly don't point towards The Maze Runner making over 3 times as much in Portugal as he predicted. 300,000 would be really bad for The Maze Runner in Israel, less than both Percy Jackson films. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alisson23 Posted August 24, 2014 Author Share Posted August 24, 2014 (edited) Yeah comparing those Portugal numbers to the Israel numbers looks wrong. Catching Fire and the Percy Films made more in Israel and the Harry Potter films made a little more in Portugal. Those numbers certainly don't point towards The Maze Runner making over 3 times as much in Portugal as he predicted. 300,000 would be really bad for The Maze Runner in Israel, less than both Percy Jackson films. Then is balanced, high for ones and low for others... I don't have data for Israel even, only Percy Jackson numbers. Edited August 24, 2014 by MazeRunner23 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
