Chasmmi's Winter Game - Discussion and Rules - SCORES ARE TALLIED RESULTS COUNTDOWN IN PROGRESS!!!

[chasmmi]

Regarding Make ups...

 

I will formally put this all together in time for Monday, but essentially there will be the following make ups available to those who qualify.

 

Make up Questions Set 1: Will be posted this Monday - anybody who missed at least one week can attempt these. (eligible players will be listed in the post when questions go up.

 

Make UP SOTM - Again hope to post Monday and will be available to anyone who did not answer at least 1 SOTM (abstaining counts as answering of course). again eligible players will be listed.

[Filmovie]

Great job Chasmmi!

[baumer]

The end is near.  Time to pin it again.

[chasmmi]

Yeah I Kind of screwed up with lack of clarity for SOTM 8. Questions 2 and 5 are vaguer than they were in my head.

 

Damn Christmas time and its distractions.

 

 

December 19th sees three wide releases enter cinemas: Annie, Hobbit 3 and Night at the Museum 3.

 

 

 

1. Which film will have the Highest Opening Weekend?

 

- Correct: 2000 points   Incorrect: minus 45000 (because you need to be really quite thick to get this one wrong).   HOBBIT

 

 

2. Which film will make back the highest percentage of its budget (budget according to BOM when published) on its opening weekend?

 

- Correct 3000 points  Incorrect: minus 2000 points   BOM doesn't report a budget for Hobbit for some reason even though it seems blatently to be 250m judging from every other source. Considering nobody chose Hobbit, it seems sensible to declare Annie the correct answer.  

 

 

3. Which film will have the largest 2nd weekend drop? (3 day to 3 day)

 

Correct 3000 points   Incorrect minus 2000 points

 

Hobbit

 

 

4. Which film will be closest to $80M on New Year's Day? 

 

Correct 4000 points   Incorrect minus 3000 points

 

NATM

 

5. Which film will make it to a 2.5 multiplier the fastest?

 

Correct 4000 points   Incorrect Minus 3000 points

 

This question is based off the Hobbit's 5 day (hence why 3 day was specified in question 3). However as I was not clear and some player clearly stated their predictions based on 3/5 day. Considering Hobbit wins if a 3 day weekend, and the other 2 tie on a 5 day weekend, I'll accept all three as being correct for this question.

 

get 5 out of 5 correct and I'll bump your score up to a total of 25,000 points!!! 

 

I'll delay actually scoring this until later though as it has got some issues

 

 

Deadline is Thursday 18th at midnight

[chasmmi]

New Weekly Questions, SOTMs and Make Ups are all up to play: 

 

http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/index.php?/topic/17341-week-15-its-time-to-use-your-special-set-of-skills/

 

http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/index.php?/topic/17342-make-up-weekly-questions/

 

http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/index.php?/topic/17343-sotm-11-meeting-their-targets/

 

http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/index.php?/topic/17345-make-up-sotm-weekend-dropping-the-ball/

[Wrath]

SOTM 11 was really interesting in that people's predicts were all over the place.

[chasmmi]

SOTM 11 was really interesting in that people's predicts were all over the place.

 

I Thought that too, I think Jajang and Tele for example have the exact mirror image predictions for each question.

Edited January 9, 2015 by chasmmi

[laguy03]

Hey chasmmi, Snoopy of Suburbia has Exodus twice in his (or her) Top 15 [see below]. Should I just disregard the 2nd prediction and replace it with his #16 prediction?
 

1) The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 395m
2) The Hobbit: Battle of the Five Armies 290m
3) Big Hero 6 250m
4) Exodus 220m
5) Unbroken 215m

6) Exodus 190m
7) Night at the Museum 3 180m
8) Interstellar 170m

9) Penguins of Madagascar 150m
10) Into the Woods 125m
11) The interview 120m
12) Gone Girl 100m
13) Fury 90m
14) Horrible Boss 2 80m
15) Annie 75m

[chasmmi]

Hey chasmmi, Snoopy of Suburbia has Exodus twice in his (or her) Top 15 [see below]. Should I just disregard the 2nd prediction and replace it with his #16 prediction?

 

 

 

Yes that's the right call I think.

[chasmmi]

Week 16 is up:

 

http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/index.php?/topic/17456-week-16-a-peruvian-sniper-goes-to-a-wedding-wearing-his-blackhat/

[grim22]

If American Sniper opens to more than Ride Along, would it be considered breaking the January OW record? Because Sniper is not being considered for the Top 7 OWs list since it already opened limited.

[chasmmi]

For the opening weekend bit then its first Sunday and this weekend doesn't count as already mentioned.

 

For OW weekend record, it depends on how BOM reports it. If BOM reports that the January record is broken then it counts, if its just a giant January then it doesn't count.

[grim22]

For the opening weekend bit then its first Sunday and this weekend doesn't count as already mentioned.

 

For OW weekend record, it depends on how BOM reports it. If BOM reports that the January record is broken then it counts, if its just a giant January then it doesn't count.

 

So if it breaks the January OW and BOM reports it as "new January OW record", it will not be in the top 7 opening weekends? That doesn't seem to follow actually. 

[Dementeleus]

But it's not an opening weekend.

[JJ-8]

The rules were clear in regards to opening weekends. First Sunday irrelevant of how wide the film was.

(Only exception was big hero 6 if it got a limited release like other Disney nov animations before it)

The "wide" opening weekend record in jan could however fall here.

[chasmmi]

So if it breaks the January OW and BOM reports it as "new January OW record", it will not be in the top 7 opening weekends? That doesn't seem to follow actually. 

 

The best current example I can give is Hobbit. It made 89M up to its first Sunday which is the official total fo r the OW section of this game.  

 

However it did not break the December weekend record as that is an official record that I cannot make and change the rules for so even though it made more than 84M 'OW' for the game it didn't as far as the record books are concerned.  

 

 

American Sniper would be the same, its official game OW is whatever thousand it made last month, However if it gets into the official record books for January weekend BO then that means it breaks the record.

[Filmovie]

IMHO AS's WE should be counted as OW.

 

If someone asks you what Frozen OW is, what would you answer? 243k or 67M? I think you would answer 67M.

When they ask you what Frozen's multiplier was, would you answer x1646,1 or x6,0? I think you would answer x6,0.

BOM has both the limited opening WE and the Wide OPENING WE. Go to Frozen's page.

 

In fact, Frozen is in the November Top OPENING Chart:

 

http://boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/month/?mo=11&p=.htm

 

The same for Lone Survivor:

 

http://boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/month/?mo=01&p=.htm

 

I know that this isn't AS's first Weekend in theatres but this is the first Weekend that it will be in a remotely considerable number of theatres. This is the WE of the NationWide Release. This is its real OW. 

 

And to this question " Will any month’s OW record be broken by the end of the game? (This is 3 day only)", I answered NO, at the time. 

 

So I will lose points if it's Nationwide Opening is considered. But IMHO it should be considered in this question and in the Top 7 OW (as only Nationwide BH's release would have been considered in top 7 if there had been a limited release)

[chasmmi]

I am personally just really hoping that American Sniper doesn't make 40M and this issue goes away on its own

[chasmmi]

Week 14 Answers:

 

1. Will Hobbit stay at number 1 by at least $6M? 3000  NO

2. Will Into the Woods stay above Unbroken? 3000  YES

3. Will Woman in Black open in the top 4?  YES

4. Will Annie's Total Gross overtake take Exodus' total gross by the end of the weekend?  YES

5. Will Hobbit drop more than 35%?  YES

6. Will The gambler stay in the top 8?  NO

7. Will the interview drop more than 30%  YES

8. Will Rec 4 have a PTA above $3000?  NO

 

9. Will more films in the top 13, increase or decrease on Friday? 3000  6 INCREASED AND 6 DECREASED LOL SO EVERYBODY WINS

10. Will any film increase on Friday and Saturday? 3000 YES - 

11. Will Mockingjay drop more than 41% on Sunday?  YES

12. Will Intersteller finish above Big Eyes?  NO

13. Will NATM3 have a PTA above $3000?  YES

14. Will any film place higher in the top 12 this weekend than it did last weekend (eg rises from 5th to 4th)?   YES - IMITATION GAME

15. Will you be hungover when making these predictions? FLIBBLE

 

Bonuses:

 

11/15 2000

12/15 3000

13/15 4000

14/15 5000

15/15 8000

 

Bonus Questions:

 

1. What will Hobbit's total be by the end of the weekend?   220.602M

2. What will be the difference in weekend gross between Interstellar and Penguins?   $435,700

3. What will Annie gross on Sunday?  $2.52m

 

Placements:

 

2.  INTO THE WOODS

4.   WOMAN IN BLACK

7.  IMITATION GAME

11.  WILD

15.  INTERSTELLAR

17.  THEORY OF EVERYTHING

Edited January 14, 2015 by chasmmi

[chasmmi]

gonna eat some food then do the scores