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Chasmmi's Winter Game - Discussion and Rules - SCORES ARE TALLIED RESULTS COUNTDOWN IN PROGRESS!!!

By chasmmi, in Chasmmi's Infamous Box Office Game

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chasmmi Summer Tentpole

chasmmi

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We have until 11:59 PST?

 

Yes :)

 

(Well in truth I am in a hotel in the UK now. I am about to go to bed and will wake up in the next 6-8 hours, when I wake up, I will lock all the current prediction threads [pre-season, SOTM and week 1 :)  )

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Alpha Global Phenomenon

Alpha

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Based on REALLY early numbers that you probably shouldn't take seriously, Gone Girl is headed for a $30 million plus opening weekend, and Annabelle should hit above $12 million on Friday.

 

http://forums.boxoffice.com/index.php?/topic/16455-weekend-numbers-from-thr-gone-girl-34m-annabelle-25-30m-pg-3-left-behind-27m-variety/?p=1706017

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chasmmi Summer Tentpole

chasmmi

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If the current early projections of BOM and BO.com hold (which they won't), week 1 answers currently looking like:

 

1. Will Gone Girl make more than 30M OW? 3000   YES (Needs to drop 6.5 from est to be NO)

2. Will Annabelle make more than 12M OD? 3000   YES (Needs to drop 3M from est to be NO)

3. Will Left behind Open in the top 5?   NO (Needs to overturn a 3.4M deficit for Yes)                  

4. Will the Equalizer make more than 20M this weekend?  NO (Needs to rise 2.5M from est for yes)

5. Will The Maze Runner drop more than 46%?   NO (needs to change by 12% for yes)

6. Will let's be cops stay in the top 12?   NO (needs at least a 140k rise to beat The Good Lie)

7. Will any film have a 200% increase on Friday?  YES (It's just clearly a YEs)

8. Will any new opener drop less than 33.5% on Sunday?  Unknown

9. Will The Blue Room have a PTA above $8,000?   Unknown

10. Will Guardians of the Galaxy drop less than 25%   YES (needs to rise 5% for No)

 

11. Will The Maze Runner finish above Box Trolls?   YES (needs to swing 1.1M for No)

12. Will The Good Lie make more than 750k?   YES (needs to fall 150k for no)

13. Will No Good Deed pass 50m by the end of the Weekend?   YEs (needs to fall 57k for NO)

14. Will Dolphin Tale 2 finish above Guardians?  Unknown both estimates are 3.0M

15. Will Dawn of the Planet of The Apes finish above How to Train Your Dragon 2?  Unknown

16. Will Turtles increase more than 95% on Saturday?   Unknown

17. Will A Walk among the Tombstones have a $1M Saturday?   Unknown

18. Which film will have the Highest Sunday drop?  Unknown

19. Will Annabelle's Friday, Saturday AND Sunday all be higher than The Equaliser's?  YES

20. Will anybody at all watch the Director's cut of Nymphomaniac?  nobody has admitted to it yet.

 

 

Bonus Questions (The closest prediction for each bonus wins the bonus stated):

 

1. What will the combined gross of Annabelle and Left Behind? 5000  Currently at 38M

2. How much will Gone Girl Gross on Friday? 5000   Current Est 13.2M

3. What will be The Skeleton Twin's total Gross by the end of the weekend? 5000  Unknown

 

 

Placements - Predict which film finishes in the following positions:

 

2. Annabelle

4. Maze Runner

5. Boxtrolls

6. Left Behind

9. Guardians/Dolphin

 

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Filmovie Sleeper Hit

Filmovie

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After this Saturday it's hard to image Annabelle under 75 mln total. So we have already an answer:

 

Will any film listed as a horror gross more than 75M by the end of the game? YES

 

Damn, I changed it at last moment and I put "NO"

 

For this we will have to wait but right now the answer to this question looks more "YES" than "NO"

 

6.   Will any film released in October make more than 120M by the end of the game?

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grim22 Global Phenomenon

grim22

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Looks like the answers are:

 

1. Will Gone Girl make more than 30M OW? 3000 Yes

2. Will Annabelle make more than 12M OD? 3000 Yes

3. Will Left behind Open in the top 5? No

4. Will the Equalizer make more than 20M this weekend? No

5. Will The Maze Runner drop more than 46%? No

6. Will let's be cops stay in the top 12? No

7. Will any film have a 200% increase on Friday? Yes

8. Will any new opener drop less than 33.5% on Sunday? Yes (Bang Bang dropped 26%)

9. Will The Blue Room have a PTA above $8,000? No

10. Will Guardians of the Galaxy drop less than 25% Yes

 

11. Will The Maze Runner finish above Box Trolls? No

12. Will The Good Lie make more than 750k? Yes

13. Will No Good Deed pass 50m by the end of the Weekend? Yes

14. Will Dolphin Tale 2 finish above Guardians? Yes

15. Will Dawn of the Planet of The Apes finish above How to Train Your Dragon 2? Yes

16. Will Turtles increase more than 95% on Saturday? Yes

17. Will A Walk among the Tombstones have a $1M Saturday? No

18. Which film will have the Highest Sunday drop? No Good Deed

19. Will Annabelle's Friday, Saturday AND Sunday all be higher than The Equaliser's? Yes

20. Will anybody at all watch the Director's cut of Nymphomaniac? Zippedy doo da

 

 

Bonus Questions (The closest prediction for each bonus wins the bonus stated):

 

1. What will the combined gross of Annabelle and Left Behind? 5000 43.43M LAGUY

2. How much will Gone Girl Gross on Friday? 5000 13.179M LAGUY

3. What will be The Skeleton Twin's total Gross by the end of the weekend? 5000 3.513M GRIM22

 

 

Placements - Predict which film finishes in the following positions:

 

2. Annabelle

4. Boxtrolls

5. Maze Runner

6. Left Behind

9. GOTG

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chasmmi Summer Tentpole

chasmmi

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Week 1 results (sorry its all a bit late, still on vacation in UK till SUnday so am doing this all in the little down time I hae where there is also wifi and using a little laptop instead of my multi-screen behemoth of a computer I'd use at home)

 

(Also means there may be a mistake or two in the math so please check your scores if you wish :) )

 

 

Player Score Bonus Places Total
Spaghetti 21 0 15 36
Alpha 15 0 2 17
Darkelf 18 0 15 33
Wrath 16 0 4 20
Chasmmi 10 0 2 12
Blankments 15 0 4 19
Dajk 14 0 6 20
Geraldino 19 0 6 25
Snoopy 12 0 2 14
Grim 17 5 15 37
Jajang 9 0 15 24
Avi 17 0 15 32
Baumer 19 0 2 21
Punishment 11 0 0 11
Grey Ghost 14 0 6 20
Iceroll 18 0 15 33
bcf26 16 0 4 20
Empire 21 0 15 36
laguy 16 10 2 28
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chasmmi Summer Tentpole

chasmmi

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After this Saturday it's hard to image Annabelle under 75 mln total. So we have already an answer:

 

Will any film listed as a horror gross more than 75M by the end of the game? YES

 

Damn, I changed it at last moment and I put "NO"

 

For this we will have to wait but right now the answer to this question looks more "YES" than "NO"

 

6.   Will any film released in October make more than 120M by the end of the game?

 

 

Cheers for this, I will do my first wave of preseason answers such as this on Monday when I'm back in Seoul, or the land that internet remembered as I will now think of it :)

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iceroll Global Phenomenon

iceroll

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Week 1 results (sorry its all a bit late, still on vacation in UK till SUnday so am doing this all in the little down time I hae where there is also wifi and using a little laptop instead of my multi-screen behemoth of a computer I'd use at home)

 

(Also means there may be a mistake or two in the math so please check your scores if you wish :) )

 

 

Player Score Bonus Places Total Spaghetti 21 0 15 36 Alpha 15 0 2 17 Darkelf 18 0 15 33 Wrath 16 0 4 20 Chasmmi 10 0 2 12 Blankments 15 0 4 19 Dajk 14 0 6 20 Geraldino 19 0 6 25 Snoopy 12 0 2 14 Grim 17 5 15 37 Jajang 9 0 15 24 Avi 17 0 15 32 Baumer 19 0 2 21 Punishment 11 0 0 11 Grey Ghost 14 0 6 20 Iceroll 18 0 15 33 bcf26 16 0 4 20 Empire 21 0 15 36 laguy 16 10 2 28

 

I love this formatting, it's so chocked with information and clear!

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