Chasmmi's Winter Game - Discussion and Rules - SCORES ARE TALLIED RESULTS COUNTDOWN IN PROGRESS!!!

[chasmmi]

This weeks answers:

 

1. Will Fury's OW be higher than Gone Girl's 2nd weekend (26.8ish current est)? 4000 NO

2. Will Book of life finish above Dracula?  YES

3. Will Best of Me finish above Alexander's NGVBAFUD?  YES

4. Will any film drop 60% or more?  NO

5. Will Addicted stay in the top 10? NO

6. Will LEft Behind finish ahead of Meet the Mormons?  YES

7. How many films will gross more than $10M this weekend? 3000 5 (BY LESS THAN 4K!!!)

8. Will The Golden Era finish above Tales of Princess Kaguya?  NO

 

9. Will every part of SOTM1 (Annabelle question) be YES by the end of the weekend? 2000  YES

10. Which film will have the best weekend drop?  GONE GIRL

11. Will GOTG have a weekend above $1M?  NO

12. Will Lucy Finish above Dragon 2?  YES

13. Will Left behind stay in the top 15?  YES

14. Will the Equalizer's Total Gross overtake The Maze Runner's total gross this weekend?  NO

15. Which of the 11 non-wide new releases on BOM's release schedule for this weekend will have the highest PTA?  BIRDMAN

 

12/15 2000 bonus

13/15 3000 bonus

14/15 5000 bonus

15/15 7000 bonus

 

Bonus Questions (The closest prediction for each bonus wins the bonus stated):

 

1. What will be the combined OW of the 3 main new releases? 5000   $50.011M

2. What will be the difference in gross between Book of Life and Boxtrolls' Weekends? 5000   14.3M

3. What will be the combined gross of the films that finish 10-12 this weekend? 5000   10.56M

 

Placements - Predict which film finishes in the following positions:

 

4. ALEXANDER

5. BEST OF ME

6. DRACULA

11. ADDICTED

14. LEFT BEHIND

16. MORMONS

Edited October 22, 2014 by chasmmi

[Wrath]

This weeks answers:

 

7. How many films will gross more than $10M this weekend? 3000 5 (BY LESS THAN 4K!!!)

 

 

We had it all along...  *cough*

 

 

 

 

9. Will every part of SOTM1 (Annabelle question) be YES by the end of the weekend? 2000  NO

 

Wait, what?  Its easily past every part of SOTM1 now.  

 

Parts 1 and 2 were cleared the first weekend, Child's Play's adjusted domestic gross was $65M or so (according to the original question, anyway) and Annabelle was at about $74M at the end of Sunday, part 4 requires over $75M OS which Annabelle easily has, and part 5 is $125M WW which its also well past.  Which one is it falling short on?

Edited October 22, 2014 by Wrath

[chasmmi]

 

9. Will every part of SOTM1 (Annabelle question) be YES by the end of the weekend? 2000  NO

 

Wait, what?  Its easily past every part of SOTM1 now.  

 

Parts 1 and 2 were cleared the first weekend, Child's Play's adjusted domestic gross was $65M or so (according to the original question, anyway) and Annabelle was at about $74M at the end of Sunday, part 4 requires over $75M OS which Annabelle easily has, and part 5 is $125M WW which its also well past.  Which one is it falling short on?

 

 

Edited that now, had it in my head that 75M was the DOM target for some reason. (The same reason I made the question AND why I answered No myself being the drunken fool that I am)

[Wrath]

Edited that now, had it in my head that 75M was the DOM target for some reason. (The same reason I made the question AND why I answered No myself being the drunken fool that I am)

 

Well at least there was a good reason for it.

[chasmmi]

Results for week 3

 

 

 

Name	Questions	Bonus	Places	Total
Spaghetti	22,000	0	24,000	24,000
Avi	8,000	0	6,000	14,000
Darkelf	10000	0	0	10000
Grim	9000	5000	4000	18000
Iceroll	13000	0	4000	17000
Empire	13000	0	2000	15000
Bcf26	8000	0	2000	10000
Laguy	13000	5000	0	18000
Geraldino	14000	0	4000	18000
Jajang	15000	0	0	15000
Wrath	16000	5000	2000	23000
Blankments	17,000	0	4000	21000
Dajk	10000	0	4000	14000
Grey Ghost	8000	0	2000	10000
Chasmmi	9000	0	4000	13000
Alpha	0	0	0	0
Snoopy	13000	0	2000	15000
Baumer	0	0	0	0
Punishment	0	0	0	0
The Panda	12,000	0	0	12,000
Filmovie	11000	0	2000	13000
Mahnamahna	0	0	0	0
CmasterClay	0	0	0	0
Telemachos	0	0	0	0

 

[darkelf]

Yeah, that was my worst week ever

[chasmmi]

The Weekly questions only score tables after Week 3

 

 

 

Name	Week 1	Week 2	Week 3	Total
Spaghetti	46000	20000	24000	90000
Grim	47000	10000	18000	75000
Avi	42000	18000	14000	74000
Iceroll	43000	14000	17000	74000
Darkelf	43000	16000	10000	69000
Empire	46000	7000	15000	68000
Laguy	38000	11000	18000	67000
Wrath	30000	14000	23000	67000
Blankments	29000	15000	21000	65000
Geraldino	35000	11000	18000	64000
Jajang	34000	12000	15000	61000
Bcf26	30000	20000	10000	60000
Dajk	30000	12000	14000	56000
Snoopy	24000	16000	15000	55000
Chasmmi	22000	19000	13000	54000
Grey Ghost	30000	12000	10000	52000
Alpha	27000	13000	0	40000
The Panda	10000	7000	12000	29000
Filmovie	10000	0	13000	23000
Baumer	21000	0	0	21000
Punishment	21000	0	0	21000
Mahnamahna	10000	0	0	10000
CmasterClay	10000	0	0	10000
Telemachos	10000	0	0	10000

 

[chasmmi]

Preseason Question 6 can be answered: 

 

6. Will any film released in October make more than 120M by the end of the game?
 
Answer correctly: 15,000 points
Answer incorrectly: lose 10,000 points
State that you abstain: 3,000 points

 

YES - Gone Girl isn't missing this now.

 

 

Name	Q6
Grim	15000
Dajk	3000
Grey Ghost	-10000
Alpha	15000
The Panda	15000
Mahnamahna	15000
Iceroll	15000
Laguy	3000
Geraldino	3000
Wrath	3000
Chasmmi	3000
Spaghetti	15000
Avi	-10000
Darkelf	15000
Empire	15000
Bcf26	15000
Jajang	-10000
Blankments	15000
Snoopy	-10000
Baumer	-10000
Punishment	-10000
Filmovie	15000
CmasterClay	-10000
Telemachos	-10000

 

 

 

 

[chasmmi]

CURRENT PRESEASON QUESTIONS -ONLY STANDINGS

 

 

 

Name	Q6	Q11	TOTAL
Grim	15000	20000	35000
Alpha	15000	20000	35000
The Panda	15000	20000	35000
Mahnamahna	15000	20000	35000
Dajk	3000	20000	23000
Iceroll	15000	4000	19000
Grey Ghost	-10000	20000	10000
Laguy	3000	4000	7000
Geraldino	3000	4000	7000
Wrath	3000	4000	7000
Chasmmi	3000	4000	7000
Spaghetti	15000	-15000	0
Darkelf	15000	-15000	0
Empire	15000	-15000	0
Bcf26	15000	-15000	0
Blankments	15000	-15000	0
Filmovie	15000	-15000	0
Avi	-10000	-15000	-25000
Jajang	-10000	-15000	-25000
Snoopy	-10000	-15000	-25000
Baumer	-10000	-15000	-25000
Punishment	-10000	-15000	-25000
CmasterClay	-10000	-15000	-25000
Telemachos	-10000	-15000	-25000

 

[chasmmi]

THE CURRENT STANDINGS IN FULL

 

 

 

Position	Name	Weekly Scores	SOTM	Pre-Season	Total
1	Grim	75000	8000	35000	118000
2	Dajk	56000	8000	23000	87000
3	Spaghetti	90000	-7000	0	83000
4	Iceroll	74000	-15000	19000	78000
5	Laguy	67000	2000	7000	76000
6	Geraldino	64000	3000	7000	74000
7	Alpha	40000	-18000	35000	57000
8	The Panda	29000	8000	35000	72000
9	Wrath	67000	-10000	7000	64000
10	Darkelf	69000	-7000	0	62000
11	Blankments	65000	-10000	0	55000
12	Bcf26	60000	-7000	0	53000
13	Chasmmi	54000	-10000	7000	51000
14	Jajang	61000	2000	-15000	48000
15	Grey Ghost	52000	-15000	10000	47000
16	Empire	68000	-25000	0	43000
17	Mahnamahna	10000	-15000	35000	30000
18	Avi	74000	-25000	-25000	24000
19	Snoopy	55000	-15000	-25000	15000
20	Filmovie	23000	-15000	0	8000
21	Baumer	21000	-15000	-25000	-19000
22	Punishment	21000	-15000	-25000	-19000
23	Films	0	3000	-25000	-22000
24	CmasterClay	10000	-15000	-25000	-30000
25	Telemachos	10000	-15000	-25000	-30000

 

Edited October 22, 2014 by chasmmi

[Plain Old Tele]

I'm off to a great start -- watch out, suckas!

[DAJK]

I feel like I'm going to lose a lot of points this weekend :/

[chasmmi]

Week 5 is up?

 

http://forums.boxoffice.com/index.php?/topic/16645-week-5-the-boxoffice-weekend-of-the-dead/#entry1733539

[chasmmi]

I feel like I'm going to lose a lot of points this weekend :/

 

For me it's looking like i have 10k riding on Judge maintaining its $43k advantage over Dracula when actuals come in.

[chasmmi]

Current Estimated answers...

 

 

1. Will John Wick make more than 12M OW?  YES (needs to drop 2.15m for No)

2. Will John Wick make more than 16M OW? NO (needs to rise 1.85M for Yes)

3. Will Ouija make more than 10M Opening day?  NO (needs to rise 1.7M for YES)

4. Will Book of Life have a 10M+ weekend? NO (needs to rise 200k for yes)

5. Will Fury drop more than 47%?  NO Needs to rise 1.8% for YES

6. Will Dracula finish above the Judge? NO (needs to rise 43k for YES)

7. Will any film increase 200% on Friday? YES (St Vincent needs to fall about 900% for NO)

8. Will either of the 2 top New Releases increase on Saturday? NO (John wick needs to rise 1.5% for YES)

 

9. Will St Vincent finish in the Top 12?  YES (need to fall 6M for NO)

10. Will Gone Girl pass 125M total gross by the end of the weekend? NO needs to rise 900k for YES)

11. Will any film drop less than 26% on Sunday? NO (book of life 29.3%)

12. Will Annabelle gross more than 1.8M on Saturday? NO (needs to rise 300k for YES)

13. Will at least 3 films have a bigger Sunday than Friday? NO (1 so far)

14. Which non-horror film will have the largest weekend drop (so no Dracula, Annabelle)? BEST of me - 52.7%)

15. Will the combined PTAs of all the new releases (including wide releases) be higher than Birdman's OW pta ($103,075 est)? NO (it's about 71k)

 

12/15 2000 bonus

13/15 3000 bonus

14/15 5000 bonus

15/15 7000 bonus

 

Bonus Questions (The closest prediction for each bonus wins the bonus stated):

 

1. What will 23 Blast's OW be? 5000  402k

2. What will be Birdman's PTA this weekend? 5000  28,720k

3. What will Dracula's percentage drop be this weekend? 5000  56.9

 

Placements - Predict which film finishes in the following positions:

 

3. FURY

5. BOOK OF LIFE

8. BEST OF ME

10. DRACULA

14. ADDICTED

25. COULD STILL BE 1 OF ABOUT 942 FILMS

 

2000 points per correct answer, 6000 bonus if all 5 are correct.

 

Any questions, please just ask and good luck

[DAJK]

ohmygod I just checked my answers and I screwed up for 14; I put NO

[Wrath]

Darn it.  I was right about Addicted being the movie from *last weeks's top 12* dropping the most, sadly it managed to drop entirely out of the top 12 this week.

 

Edit - Kill the Messenger at #25!  I'm a genius!  Some might argue good luck, but I prefer to go with genius.

 

Edit2 - As a possible argument against my genius, it looks like the estimates were wrong and Addicted was in fact not the top decliner of last weeks' top 12.  I prefer to think of that as bad luck.

Edited October 27, 2014 by Wrath

[chasmmi]

SOTM 5 is up
 

http://forums.boxoffice.com/index.php?/topic/16674-sotm-5-stars-vs-heroes/

 

 

Hoping to have week 4 stuff marked in the next 4 hours or so

 

[chasmmi]

Answers for Week 4:

 

1. Will John Wick make more than 12M OW?  YES

2. Will John Wick make more than 16M OW? NO

3. Will Ouija make more than 10M Opening day?  NO

4. Will Book of Life have a 10M+ weekend? YES

5. Will Fury drop more than 47%?  NO

6. Will Dracula finish above the Judge? YES

7. Will any film increase 200% on Friday? YES

8. Will either of the 2 top New Releases increase on Saturday? NO

 

9. Will St Vincent finish in the Top 12?  YES

10. Will Gone Girl pass 125M total gross by the end of the weekend? NO

11. Will any film drop less than 26% on Sunday? YES

12. Will Annabelle gross more than 1.8M on Saturday? NO 

13. Will at least 3 films have a bigger Sunday than Friday? NO

14. Which non-horror film will have the largest weekend drop (so no Dracula, Annabelle)? BEST OF ME

15. Will the combined PTAs of all the new releases (including wide releases) be higher than Birdman's OW pta ($103,075 est)? NO

 

12/15 2000 bonus

13/15 3000 bonus

14/15 5000 bonus

15/15 7000 bonus

 

Bonus Questions (The closest prediction for each bonus wins the bonus stated):

 

1. What will 23 Blast's OW be? 5000  $337,091

2. What will be Birdman's PTA this weekend? 5000  27,593k

3. What will Dracula's percentage drop be this weekend? 5000  56

 

Placements - Predict which film finishes in the following positions:

 

3. FURY

5. BOOK OF LIFE

8. BEST OF ME

10. JUDGE

14. ADDICTED

25. PRIDE

Edited October 29, 2014 by chasmmi

[chasmmi]

Results for this week's questions:

 

 

Name	Questions	Bonus	Places	Total
Spaghetti	0		0	0
Avi	8,000		0	8,000
Darkelf	11000		6000	17000
Grim	10000		4000	14000
Iceroll	14000		2000	16000
Empire	11000		0	11000
Bcf26	11000		6000	17000
Laguy	14000		6000	20000
Geraldino	14000		6000	20000
Jajang	9000		2000	11000
Wrath	8000		6000	14000
Blankments	11,000		4000	15000
Dajk	11000	6000*	4000	21000
Grey Ghost	14000	6000*	6000	26000
Chasmmi	11000	5000	6000	22000
Alpha	8000		4000	12000
Snoopy	9000		0	9000
Baumer	0		0	0
Punishment	0		0	0
The Panda	0		0	0
Filmovie	0		0	0
Mahnamahna	0		0	0
CmasterClay	0		0	0
Telemachos	0		0	0

 

*grey ghost and Dajk have been awarded a bonus 1000 points for the bonus questions due to extreme accuracy. (grey ghost missed Birdman's PTA by $30 and DAJK was exactly correct with Dracula's % drop.)