Friday Estimates: Maze Runner: 11.25, Walk among Tombstones 4.7M , All numbers in first post

[CJohn]

170 M overseas is low. A lot of major markets are still left to open.

He said the floor. 

[kayumanggi]

He said the floor. 

 

Yes, I know. But I won't consider it the floor since it's low.

[Cedarpoint1111]

Sequel already slated for next year!

[Johnny Wiseau]

with such great worldwide numbers for the Maze Runner..the absolute minimum it'll make is 200 mil WW..which is great

[DAJK]

These are great numbers for Maze Runner. It was such a great thing to wake up to! 

[mredman]

That TMNT worldwide number. lol

 

what is laugable about that. its a great numbers and it hasn't even opened in all markets yet

[James]

what is laugable about that. its a great numbers and it hasn't even opened in all markets yet

I think he was talking about the 333.3 number 

[kayumanggi]

'Maze Runner' int'l openings: South Korea - $5.5M, Russia - $5.5M, Australia - $3.3M, Brazil - $2M, Spain - $1.96M. pic.twitter.com/6exqZXeshY

— Box Office Mojo (@boxofficemojo)

September 21, 2014

[Kalo]

Not really. At this point Fox is almost locked to win the year. The only studio that has even the smallest chance to beat them is WB, but for that it would need Anabelle, Horrrible Bosses 2 and The Judge all to overperform. 

Your forgetting a little studio called "Disney" thanks to "Guardians" it's right behind Fox right now. and they Still have Big Hero 6, Alexander and the Terrible ect. day. and into the woods, but thanks to "Maze Runner" it inches fox ahead again. and I have really a really good feeling about "Gone Girl" I could see it doing "Argo" Numbers, Penguins I don't think will do great, but Should at least it $130m, Exodus doesn't look very good, but thanks to the epic story and star power it should get at least $125m, and with couple others even if they don't all perform well Fox has a Very good chance of winning the year.

Edited September 21, 2014 by KaloVisor

[Empire]

I don't understand what it is that he dislikes about the film though.  It was quite hysterical and I don't think I'm alone in thinking that.  Just because it opened softly, doesn't mean it's not a good movie.

Yeah, it was a good movie. Subers is wrong.

[Maxmoser3]

Maze Runner is a decent opening likely gonna earn close to 85 million domestic then Bleh for Tombstones which would fall short of 30 million, and This Is Where I Leave You on par predictions but one of the lower Shawn Levy debuts and might not also reach 30 million. But Tusk who expected that to do well? Nobody wait till DVD in December or January and see how that does on VOD and Netflix also.

[James]

Your forgetting a little studio called "Disney" thanks to "Guardians" it's right behind Fox right now. and they Still have Big Hero 6, Alexander and the Terrible ect. day. and into the woods, but thanks to "Maze Runner" it inches fox ahead again. and I have really a really good feeling about "Gone Girl" I could see it doing "Argo" Numbers, Penguins I don't think will do great, but Should at least it $130m, Exodus doesn't look very good, but thanks to the epic story and star power it should get at least $125m, and with couple others even if they don't all perform well Fox has a Very good chance of winning the year.

Disney doesn't have a chnace. It may be a 130M difference between it and WB now but WB still has Hobbit (the last one made 201M before the end of the year, this one will likely do more), Horribe Bosses 2, The Judge, Annabelle plus another 3 movies. Alexander probably won't make much and Into the Woods opens on 25th so it doesn't have enough time to make a big difference. Even if Big Hero would make 250M this year, Fox would still win. Warner will come in second.

[The Panda]

Yeah, Disney's year is next year.

[Wrath]

How on earth did they make Maze Runner for $30M?

[Kalo]

Disney doesn't have a chnace. It may be a 130M difference between it and WB now but WB still has Hobbit (the last one made 201M before the end of the year, this one will likely do more), Horribe Bosses 2, The Judge, Annabelle plus another 3 movies. Alexander probably won't make much and Into the Woods opens on 25th so it doesn't have enough time to make a big difference. Even if Big Hero would make 250M this year, Fox would still win. Warner will come in second.

yeah I just did some Calculations, Fox pretty much has this year. Unless WB has some really big over-performers.  

 

Based on what I got

 

Fox $1b,880m

WB $1b,620m

Disney $1b,590m

[Walt Disney]

Disney doesn't have a chnace. It may be a 130M difference between it and WB now but WB still has Hobbit (the last one made 201M before the end of the year, this one will likely do more), Horribe Bosses 2, The Judge, Annabelle plus another 3 movies. Alexander probably won't make much and Into the Woods opens on 25th so it doesn't have enough time to make a big difference. Even if Big Hero would make 250M this year, Fox would still win. Warner will come in second.

 

It has been really hard for Disney to win years recently because they just don't release a lot of movies every year. If you're releasing 20 movies in a year, you should be able to gross more than a studio that is releasing 11 movies.

 

Of course, if you measure success by the amount of money made divided by the amount of movies released, then that's a much better standard for success. Or you could just see which studio gets the most movies in the top 10 for the year.

[Kalo]

Yeah, Disney's year is next year.

Disney will Pulverize anything in it's path next year.

 

Avengers 2, Star Wars VII, Cinderella, Ant-Man, Inside out, Good Dinosaur, Tomorrowland, Jungle Book. that is just insane.

Edited September 21, 2014 by KaloVisor

[Ruthie]

So you avoided watching CF and HG as well as other YA movies that seemed good?

Yes, because they didn't seem good to me.  Hunger Games didn't because I don't find the idea of kids hunting down or being hunted by other kids entertaining.  Other YAs because they tend to be overfilled with melodrama and/or silly romances, and I find neither appealing. Knowing nothing about MR except what I saw in the trailer, it looks like something I would like to see.  But, again, I'm going to wait to get reports from others before making a final decision to lay down the bucks.  

[James]

It has been really hard for Disney to win years recently because they just don't release a lot of movies every year. If you're releasing 20 movies in a year, you should be able to gross more than a studio that is releasing 11 movies.

 

Of course, if you measure success by the amount of money made divided by the amount of movies released, then that's a much better standard for success. Or you could just see which studio gets the most movies in the top 10 for the year.

I agree and don't agree. The main reason Disney has such good grosses with so few movies is because they rarely release something original. Look at this year. From 10 movies 3 are sequels, 2 are Marvel, one is a fairytale action remake (by now a typical Disney move). The only original ones where Million Dollar Arm, Bears and Need For Speed (again, not original) and none of them did particularly good. 

I'm not downplaying Disney in any way. They found a successful formula and have enough franchises to continue to do it. But there's a reason why the other studios have a bigger number of releases. None of them rely as much on their franchises.

[Walt Disney]

I agree and don't agree. The main reason Disney has such good grosses with so few movies is because they rarely release something original. Look at this year. From 10 movies 3 are sequels, 2 are Marvel, one is a fairytale action remake (by now a typical Disney move). The only original ones where Million Dollar Arm, Bears and Need For Speed (again, not original) and none of them did particularly good. 

I'm not downplaying Disney in any way. They found a successful formula and have enough franchises to continue to do it. But there's a reason why the other studios have a bigger number of releases. None of them rely as much on their franchises.

 

I agree with you. Disney absolutely has a franchise/tent pole model. They don't have a lot of mid-budget films. It's mostly big tent poles and a few smaller budgeted films (like Muppets Most Wanted). Other studios are definitely more willing to take risks on original movies these days. However, most big studios have a close to equal number of big tent pole films, so any extra movie released in a  given year should give a studio a better shot at winning the year.

 

WB has 14 movies released so far, and they have another 6-8 for the rest of the year. Fox has 10 with 6 more to be released this year. Disney has 10 with 3 more to be released this year. Fox and WB should finish ahead of Disney. Yet, Disney has 3 films that have grossed more domestically than any film that Fox has released this year.

 

I just feel that the number of movies that a studio releases in a year has to be taken into account.