Weekend Prediction thread 4/19-4/21 Play the Derby

[filmlover]

Boo 2: $18M

Only the Brave: $16M

Geostorm: $10M

The Snowman: $4M

[Impact]

Not going to lie-I actually kind of want to see Murder more than Justice League-then again I love the 1974 version of Murder and really want to see the new updated version!

[Blankments]

On 10/10/2017 at 11:46 PM, Blankments said:

The Princess and the Frog is gone.

The Mountain Between Us, My Little Pony: The Movie, Brave, The Stray, and The LEGO Ninjago Movie are gone.

 

Geostorm - 10/4 (2D/3D) total 14 (debut)

Happy Death Day - 14 (no change)

Boo 2! A Madea Halloween - 11 (debut)

It - 10 (down 3)

Only the Brave - 10 (debut)

Same Kind of Different As Me - 10 (debut)

The Foreigner - 9 (down 2)

Blade Runner 2049 - 8 (down 9)

American Made - 5 (no change)
Kingsman: The Golden Circle - 5 (down 4)
The Snowman - 4 (debut)
Battle of the Sexes - 3 (no change)
American Assassin - 2 (no change)
Flatliners - 1 (down 3)
The Rocky Horror Picture Show - 1 (no change)

[el sid]

Boo 2! A Madea Halloween: 22M
Geostorm: 14M
Only the Brave: 12M
The Snowman: 8M
 

[dxmatrixdt]

Boo! 2 - 22.50 - $9,422

Geostorm - 13.00 - $4,005

Only the Brave - 10.00 - $3,880

The Snowman - 5.25 - $2,897

 

Happy Death Day (-53.9%) - 12.00 - $3,641 - 43.15

Blade Runner (-46.75%) - 8.25 - $2,576 - 75.00

The Foreigner (-44.7%) - 7.25 - $2,883 - 24.61

It (-35.6%) - 3.90 - $1,523 - 320.58

American Made (-31.8%) - 3.75 - $1,473 - 46.09

Mountain Between Us (-31.8%) - 3.50 - $1,111 - 26.25

 

Same Kind of Different As Me (new) - 4.25 - $3,120 - 4.25

Kingsman (-40.5%) - 3.20 - $1,381 - 94.75

Ninjago (-36.3%) - 2.75 - $1,308 - 55,184,844

My Little Pony (-39.2%) - 2.50 - $1,086 - 19,008,853

Victoria & Abdul (-26.8%) - 2.20 - $2,081 - 14.88

Marshall (-50%) - 1,500,400 - $1,828 - 5,468,223

 

Battle of the Sexes (-60.9%) - 525,000 - $963 - 11,366,814

Flatliners (-74.1%) - 400,000 - $748 - 16,606,508

Professor Marston and the Wonder Woman (-61%) - 287,700 - $300 - 1,361,351

 

Despicable Me 3 - 244,730 - $733 - 263,316,235

American Assassin - 200,000 - $641 - 36,003,559

 

Dunkirk - 114,000 - $606 - 187,742,432

mother! (-38.1%) - 79,500 - $750 - 17,778,038

Hitman's Bodyguard - 73,294 - $421 - 75,287,711

Home Again - (-56.2%) - 72,048 - $456 - 26,927,097
The Stray (-75.7%) - 69,500 - $500 - 1,385,926

 

Annabelle: Creation (-40.4%) - 69,000 - $500 - 102,033,073

Wind River (-39.1%) - 66,550 - $550 - 35,571,492

Cars 3 (-25.0%) - 65,800 - $700 - 152,833,775

Leap! (-42.1%) - 58,000 - $500 - 21,506,566

Stronger (-54.3%) - 50,400 - $600 - 5,034,669

Wonder Woman (-25.00%) - 35,700 - $425 - 412,536,705

Edited October 20, 2017 by Matrix4You

[stripe]

Only the Brave - 21M

Madea Boo - 19M

Geostorm - 17M

HDD - 11.5M

BR2049 - 9M

Snowman - 6M

Same Kind of Different - 4M

IT - 4M

AM - 3.5M

Mountain Between Us - 3M

 

Top 10 - 98M

[filmlover]

10/27-29

 

Jigsaw: $10M

Suburbicon: $8M

Thank You for Your Service: $5M

 

I'll still see Suburbicon but these weak reviews are definitely going to tamper the grosses.

[mahnamahna]

Spoiler

10/27-10/29

1. Jigsaw: $14.5 million
2. Boo 2! A Madea Halloween: $10.5 million ($37 million) 
3. Suburbicon: $7 million 
4. Geostorm: $6.5 million ($23 million) 
5. Happy Death Day: $5.5 million ($49 million) 
6. Thank You for Your Service: $4.5 million 
7. Blade Runner 2049: $4 million ($80 million) 
8. Only the Brave: $3.5 million ($11 million) 
9. The Foreigner: $2.5 million ($26 million) 
10. IT: $2 million ($323 million) 

11/3-11/5

1. Thor - Ragnorak: $132 million 
2. A Bad Moms Christmas: $24 million ($37 million)
3. Jigsaw: $4.5 million ($23 million) 
4. Boo 2! A Madea Halloween: $4 million ($44 million) 
5. Suburbicon: $3.5 million ($12 million) 
6. Geostorm: $2.5 million ($27 million) 
7. Thank You For Your Service: $2.5 million ($8 million) 
8. Blade Runner 2049: $2 million ($83 million) 
9. Only the Brave: $2 million ($14 million) 
10. Happy Death Day: $2 million ($52 million) 

11/10-11/12

1. Thor - Ragnorak: $56 million ($219 million) 
2. Murder on the Orient Express: $46.5 million 
3. Daddy's Home 2: $31.5 million 
4. A Bad Moms Christmas: $14.5 million ($59 million) 
5. Boo 2! A Madea Halloween: $2 million ($47 million) 
6. Suburbicon: $2 million ($15 million) 
7. Jigsaw: $1.5 million ($25 million) 
8. Geostorm: $1.5 million ($29 million) 
9. Thank You for Your Service: $1.5 million ($10 million) 
10. Only the Brave: $1.5 million ($16 million) 

11/17-11/19

1. Justice League: $134 million 
2. Murder on the Orient Express: $24 million ($85 million) 
3. Thor - Ragnorak: $21.5 million ($253 million) 
4. Daddy's Home 2: $15.5 million ($54 million) 
5. The Star: $9.5 million 
6. A Bad Moms Christmas: $8 million ($71 million) 
7. Wonder: $7.5 million 
8. Boo 2! A Madea Halloween: $1.25 million ($49 million) 
9. Suburbicon: $1.25 million ($17 million) 
10. Only the Brave: $1 million ($17 million) 

11/22-11/26

1. Coco: $66 million/$95 million 
2. Justice League: $56 million/$83.5 million ($239 million) 
3. Murder on the Orient Express: $17 million/$24.5 million ($114 million) 
4. Thor - Ragnorak: $16.5 million/$24.5 million ($284 million) 
5. Daddy's Home 2: $12 million/$18.5 million ($76 million) 
6. The Star: $10 million/$14.5 million ($26 million) 
7. Wonder: $8 million/$12 million ($21 million) 
8. A Bad Moms Christmas: $6 million/$9 million ($82 million) 
9. Chappaquiddick: $2.5 million/$4.5 million
10. Polaroid: $2 million/$5 million 

12/1-12/3

1. Coco: $30.5 million ($135 million) 
2. Justice League: $23 million ($273 million) 
3. Murder on the Orient Express: $8 million ($126 million) 
4. Thor - Ragnorak: $7.5 million ($295 million) 
5. The Star: $6.5 million ($34 million) 
6. Daddy's Home 2: $6 million ($84 million) 
7. Wonder: $4 million ($27 million) 
8. A Bad Moms Christmas: $4 million ($88 million) 
9. The Disaster Artist: $1.5 million
10. Chappaquiddick: $1 million ($6 million) 

12/8-12/10

1. Coco: $22 million ($164 million) 
2. Justice League: $16 million ($297 million) 
3. Just Getting Started: $6.5 million 
4. Murder on the Orient Express: $5.5 million ($135 million) 
5. Thor - Ragnorak: $5 million ($303 million) 
6. The Star: $5 million ($41 million) 
7. Daddy's Home 2: $4.5 million ($91 million) 
8. Wonder: $3 million ($31 million) 
9. A Bad Moms Christmas: $3 million ($92 million) 
10. The Disaster Artist: $2.5 million ($4 million) 

12/15-12/17

1. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $224 million
2. Ferdinand: $17.5 million 
3. Coco: $13 million ($182 million) 
4. Justice League: $5 million ($305 million) 
5. Just Getting Started: $3.5 million ($12 million) 
6. Murder on the Orient Express: $3 million ($140 million) 
7. The Star: $3 million ($45 million) 
8. The Disaster Artist: $2.75 million ($8 million) 
9. Daddy's Home 2: $2.5 million ($94 million) 
10. Thor - Ragnorak: $2 million ($306 million) 

12/22-12/25

1. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $120.5 million/$157 million ($479 million) 
2. Pitch Perfect 3: $33 million/$47.5 million 
3. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $24 million/$36.5 million ($54 million) 
4. Ferdinand: $20 million/$30 million ($64 million)
5. Coco: $15.5 million/$23 million ($217 million)
6. The Greatest Showman: $13 million 
7. Downsizing: $9 million/$13 million ($20 million)
8. The Six Billion Dollar Man: $7 million/$9.5 million 
9. The Star: $4 million/$6 million ($55 million) 
10. Justice League: $3.5 million/$5 million ($314 million) 

12/29-1/1

1. Star Wars Episode VIII - $69 million/$95.5 million ($643 million) 
2. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $25 million/$33 million ($112 million) 
3. Pitch Perfect 3: $23 million/$29 million ($94 million) 
4. Ferdinand: $21 million/$28 million ($113 million) 
5. The Greatest Showman: $19 million/$24.5 million ($57 million) 
6. Coco: $14.5 million/$19 million ($245 million) 
7. Downsizing: $7.5 million/$9 million ($35 million) 
8. The Six Billion Dollar Man: $5 million/$6.5 million ($20 million) 
9. The Disaster Artist: $4.5 million/$5.5 million ($23 million) 
10. Justice League: $3 million/$4 million ($321 million) 

 

Edited October 23, 2017 by mahnamahna

[Maxmoser3]

Jigsaw:$16 million, Suburbicon:$11 million, Thank You For Your Service:$2 million

[DAJK]

Gonna predict the #1 film (and #1 opener if the top film isn't an opener) for as far into the future as I can bother to rn cause I really don't want to study for my Biology mid term...

 

Oct 27 -

1. Jigsaw - $13M

 

Nov 3 -

1. Thor - $115M

 

Nov 10 - 

1. Thor - $44.5M

2. Murder on the Orient Express - $40M

 

Nov 17 -

1. Justice League - $160M

 

Nov 24 -

1. Justice League - 60M

2. Coco - $48M

 

Dec 1 -

1. Coco - $27M

 

Dec 8 - 

1. Coco - $18M

2. Just Getting Started 10M

 

Dec 15 - 

1. Star Wars - $225M

 

Dec 22

1. Star Wars - $133M

2. Jumanji - $36M

 

Dec 29 

1. Star Wars - $77M

Not sure what's opening... Greatet showman 18M?

 

Jan 5 -

1. Star Wars - $39M

2. Insidious - $18M

 

Jan 12 -

1. Star Wars - 24M

2. The Commuter - $17M

 

Jan 19 -

1. 12 Strong - $26M

 

Jan 26 -

1. Maze Runner - $24M

 

Feb 2

1. Cloverfield - $21M

 

Feb 9 -

1. 50 Shades - $42M

 

Feb 16 - 

1. Black Panther - $110M

 

Feb 23 -

1. Black Panther - $50M

2. Annihilation - $21M

 

Mar 2 -

1. Red Sparrow - $36M

 

Mar 9 -

1. Wrinkle in Time - $41M

 

Mar 16 -

1. Tomb Raider - $30M

 

Mar 23 - 

1. Pacific Rim - $28M

 

Mar 30 -

1. Ready Player One - $50.5M

 

Apr 6 - 

1. Ready Player One - $27.3M

 

Apr 13 -

1. New Mutants - $48.5M

 

Apr 20 - 

1. Rampage - $28M

 

Apr 27 - 

1. Rampage - $14M

 

May 4 - 

1. Avengers - $210M

 

May 11 - 

1. Avengers - $89M

 

May 18 - 

1. Avengers - $40M

2. Slender man - $30M

 

May 25 - 

1. Solo - $122M (it's getting moved tho I'll bet)

 

June 1 -

1. Deadpool - $140M

 

June 8 - 

1. Deadpool - $65M

2. Oceans 8 - $32M

 

June 15 - 

1. Incredibles - $130M

 

June 22 - 

1. Jurassic World 2 - $160.5M

 

June 29 - 

1. Jurassic World 2 - $78.6M

2. Tag - $22.4M

 

July 6 -

1. Ant Man - $65.7M

 

July 13 -

1. The Nun - $52.5M

 

July 20 - 

1. Mama Mia! - $27.8M

 

July 27 - 

1. Mission Impossible - $47.6M (no clue but I doubt untitled DC is staying there)

 

August 3 -

1. Predator - $34.5M

 

 

 

[WrathOfHan]

Jigsaw: 13M

Madea: 10M

Suburbicon: 6M

Geostorm: 5.8M

Happy Death Day: 4.6M

Thank You for Your Service: 4M

Only the Brave: 3.8M

Blade Runner: 3.7M

The Foreigner: 3M

American Made: 2M

[That One Girl]

1. Jigsaw - 12M
2. Boo 2 - 10.4M
3. Thank You for Your Service - 7M
4. Suburbicon - 6.5M
5. Geostorm - 5.72M
6. Happy Death Day - 4.31M
7. Blade Runner - 3.65M
8. Only the Brave - 3.25M
9. The Foreigner - 2.56M
10. It - 2.31M
11. American Made - 1.77M
12. Kingsman - 1.74M
13. Victoria and Abdul - 1.53M
14. Same Kind of Different as Me - 1.48M
15. The Mountain Between Us - 1.29M
16. The Snowman - 1.17M
17. Ninjago - 1.16M
18. Florida Project - 1M
19. My Little Pony - 836k
20. Marshall - 664k

Edited October 22, 2017 by That One Guy

[Ezen Baklattan]

Jigsaw - 14m

Madea - 11m

TYFYS - 9m

Geostorm - 7m

Death Day - 5.5m

Suburbicon - 5m

Blade Runner - 4m

Only The Brave - 3.5m

Foreigner - 2.7m

IT - 2.5m

 

[filmlover]

I honestly don't see how Thank You for Your Service will do above low-to-mid single digits, at best. It reminds me of Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (getting the sense reviews will be similarly mediocre too).

Edited October 23, 2017 by filmlover

[Rorschach]

Jigsaw: $14.3 million

Boo 2: $11.9 million

Suburbicon: $6 million

Geostorm: $5.5 million

Happy Death Day: $4.5 million

TYFYS: $4 million

Blade Runner: $3.9 million

Only the Brave: $3.4 million

The Foreigner: $2.6 million

It: $2.45 million

Kingsman: $1.7 million

American Made: $1.6 million

 

[Barnack]

29 minutes ago, Rorschach said:

Suburbicon: $6 million

That low with an over 2000 theater opening and pretty much no direct competition (or competition in general) at all ?

 

Box office pro had it doing 45m not so long ago, I imagine it was before the reviews.

 

Trying to look at precedent, it could happen too, but would be very on the low side for a wide release with the people involved.

 

Clooney wide release directed movie:

• Leatherheads: 12.6m (2,800 theater)
• Ides of March: 10.47m (2,200 theater)
• Monument men: 22m (3,000 theater)

Damon recent non franchise/big spectacle movies (say below 60m budget):

• We bought a zoo: 9.36m (3,117 theater)
• Promised Land: 4.05m (1,600 theater)
• Hereafter: 12m (2,180 theater)
• The Informant: 10.4m (2,505 theater)

Damon Big non franchise lead role movie opening:

• Great Wall: 18m
• Martian: 54m
• Elysium: 29.8m
• Contagion: 22.4m
• Adjustment bureau: 21m
• Green Zone: 14.3m
• Invictus: 8.6m

 

Coens:

Hail, Ceasar: 11.35m (2,200 theater)

Inside Llewyn Davis/Serious man (never got wide)

 

 

 

 

Edited October 23, 2017 by Barnack

[WrathOfHan]

14 minutes ago, Barnack said:

That low with an over 2000 theater opening and pretty much no direct competition (or competition in general) at all ?

 

Box office pro had it doing 45m not so long ago, I imagine it was before the reviews.

 

Trying to look at precedent, it could happen too, but would be very on the low side for a wide release with the people involved.

 

Clooney wide release directed movie:

• Leatherheads: 12.6m (2,800 theater)
• Ides of March: 10.47m (2,200 theater)
• Monument men: 22m (3,000 theater)

Damon recent non franchise/big spectacle movies (say below 60m budget):

• We bought a zoo: 9.36m (3,117 theater)
• Promised Land: 4.05m (1,600 theater)
• Hereafter: 12m (2,180 theater)
• The Informant: 10.4m (2,505 theater)

Damon Big non franchise lead role movie opening:

• Great Wall: 18m
• Martian: 54m
• Elysium: 29.8m
• Contagion: 22.4m
• Adjustment bureau: 21m
• Green Zone: 14.3m
• Invictus: 8.6m

 

Coens:

Hail, Ceasar: 11.35m (2,200 theater)

Inside Llewyn Davis/Serious man (never got wide)

 

 

 

 

I don't think starpower can save this one. There's zero buzz, and reviews are pretty much mediocre to bad across the board. Damon will hopefully have better luck this Christmas with Downsizing, which doesn't have stellar reviews either.

[Barnack]

15 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I don't think starpower can save this one. There's zero buzz, and reviews are pretty much mediocre to bad across the board. Damon will hopefully have better luck this Christmas with Downsizing, which doesn't have stellar reviews either.

At least downsizing has the high concept with a somewhat possible hook for an audience going on for it, will see if the last trailer show some hero journey and not just the premise, if it does it would not need reviews to open, if it does not and keep a marketing that reveal nothing about the actual story/goal of the hero, it would have to rely on them a bit and Christmas release tend to be about legs, easy to see that to underperform also.

 

Without being saved it could do higher, it is a studio release, crime/comedy genre a la Coens with them involved, with a 25.4m qualified expenditure in California, with that above the line + other expense that do not qualify, I imagine 40m+ gross budget or something of the sort, that was making the top spending list on TV last week and should do it the 3 week before it's release. I think a 8-12m should happen (if it goes around you 6m prediction in a weekend without any competition, that would show how hard and low the floor is getting for non successful movie right now)

Edited October 23, 2017 by Barnack

[filmlover]

Suburbicon has actually had a really heavy ad push on the networks but there is no overcoming the reviews. I think it'll open somewhere in the mid-to-high single digits area based on the overwhelming amount of starpower both in front and behind the camera.

[WrathOfHan]

It shouldn't really be surprising that Paramount didn't bother fixing the mismarketing of Suburbicon's tone. They've basically taken the L on this movie already.