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Impact

Weekend Prediction thread 3/29-3/31 Play the Derby

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4 hours ago, JWR said:

Most likely candidates:

Cry Macho (September 17)

Dear Evan Hansen (September 24)

The Many Saints of Newark (October 1)

Okay, thanks

I though Bond came out the first week of October, or did it move again?

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5 minutes ago, Impact said:

Okay, thanks

I though Bond came out the first week of October, or did it move again?

 

No Time to Die is staying put. I left it out because that one WILL knock Shang-Chi to the #2 slot if the others don't.

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SEPTEMBER 24-26:

 

1. "Shang Chi" - 13.2 / 195.7

2. "Dear Evan Hansen" - 4.5

3. "Free Guy" - 3.2 / 113.3

4. "Candyman" - 2.0 / 56.2

5. "Cry Macho" - 1.9 / 8.1

 

OCTOBER 1-3:

 

1. "Venom 2" - 68.5

2. "The Addams Family 2" - 12.5

3. "Shang Chi" - 7.8 / 209.0

4. "Many Saints of Newark" - 7.5

5. "Free Guy" - 2.7 / 118.1

 

OCTOBER 8-10:

 

1. "No Time To Die" - 78.5

2. "Venom 2" - 31.7 / 150.8

3. “The Addams Family 2" - 8.5 / 32.1

4. “Shang Chi" - 2.9 / 210.1

5. "Many Saints of Newark" - 2.0 / 8.6

 

OCTOBER 15-17:

 

1. "No Time To Die" - 38.1 / 142.7

2. "Halloween Kills" - 31.8

3. "Venom 2" - 16.5 / 177.3

4. "The Last Duel" - 5.5

5. "Shang Chi" - 1.7 / 212.7

 

OCTOBER 22-24:

 

1. "Dune" - 38.8

2. "No Time To Die" - 21.7 / 177.0

3. "Halloween Kills" - 11.4 / 53.2

4. "Venom 2" - 8.7 / 191.5

5. "The French Dispatch" - 4.8

 

OCTOBER 29-31:

 

1. "Dune" - 17.7 / 69.7

2. "No Time To Die" - 12.8 / 195.9

3. "Antlers" - 7.0

4. "Halloween Kills" - 6.2 / 63.0

5. "Venom 2” - 5.1 / 199.4

 

NOVEMBER 5-7:

 

1. "Eternals" - 95.5

2. "Dune" - 10.3 / 85.9

3. "No Time To Die" - 7.3 / 207.5

4. "Antlers" - 3.0 / 12.3

5. “Venom 2 “ - 2.8 / 203.8

 

NOVEMBER 12-14:

 

1. "Eternals" - 46.8 / 175.7

2. "Clifford the Big Red Dog" - 6.4 / 10.5

3. "Dune" - 6.2 / 95.5

4. "No Time To Die" - 4.3 / 214.1

5. "Antlers" - 1.9 / 15.1

 

NOVEMBER 19-21:

 

1. "Eternals" - 25.6 / 216.7

2. "Ghostbusters" - 25.1

3. "King Richard" - 17.5

4. "Dune" - 3.9 / 101.4

5. "No Time To Die" - 2.5 / 218.0

 

NOVEMBER 26-28:

 

1. "Encanto" - 42.5 / 60.2

2. "House of Gucci" - 16.5 / 24.9

3. "Eternals" - 15.1 / 240.5

4. "Ghostbusters" - 10.8 / 45.1

5. "King Richard" - 9.8 / 33.6

 

 

 

 

Edited by ViktorLosAngeles
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DECEMBER 3-5:

 

1. "Encanto" - 20.7 / 95.1

2. "Eternals" - 7.6 / 252.8

3. "House of Gucci" - 7.4 / 37.6

4. "King Richard" - 4.8 / 41.6

5. "Ghostbusters" - 4.7 / 53.0

 

DECEMBER 10-12:

 

1. "West Side Story" - 28.5

2. "Encanto" - 12.2 / 115.1

3. "Violence of Action" - 6.5

4. "House of Gucci" - 4.4 / 44.6

5. "Eternals" - 4.2 / 259.4

 

DECEMBER 17-19:

 

1. "Spider-Man: No Way Home" - 108.1

2. "Nightmare Alley" - 19.5

3. "West Side Story" - 17.1 / 59.0

4. "Encanto" - 8.3 / 129.5

5. "House of Gucci" - 3.0 / 50.2

 

DECEMBER 24-26:

 

1. "Spider-Man: No Way Home" - 48.6 / 209.6

2. "Matrix Resurrections" - 45.1 / 73.7

3. "Sing 2" - 34.2 / 53.8

4. "The King's Man" - 33.5 / 56.3

5. "West Side Story" - 13.3 / 82.4

 

DECEMBER 31-JANUARY 2:

 

1. "Spider-Man: No Way Home" - 27.9 / 274.3

2. "Sing 2" - 25.5 / 107.0

3. "Matrix Resurrections" - 22.2 / 125.3

4. "The King's Man" - 18.1 / 100.4

5. "West Side Story" - 8.1 / 100.0

 

My predictions for the Year End Chart:

 

1. "Spider-Man: No Way Home" - 320 million $

2. "Eternals" - 277 million $

3. "No Time To Die" - 223 million $

4. "Shang Chi" - 217 million $

5. "Venom 2" - 210 million $

6. "Black Widow" - 183.7 million $

7. "F9" - 173 million $

8. "Matrix Resurrections" - 165 million $

9. "Sing 2" - 163 million $

10. "A Quiet Place 2" - 160.1 million $

 

11. “Encanto” - 158 million $

12. “The King’s Man” - 129 million $

13. “Free Guy” - 122 million $

14. “Jungle Cruise” - 117 million $

15. “West Side Story” - 115 millon $

16. “Dune” - 108 million $

17. “Godzilla vs. Kong” - 100.6 million $

 

Orher films that may gross more than 100 million $, depending on their opening:

 

1. “Halloween Kills” - I still think it will end it’s run around 70 million $

 

2. “Nightmare Alley” - I highly doubt it, but you never know.

 

Edited by ViktorLosAngeles
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I think Gaga fans went to see the trailer on repeat. I agree that it looks better than TNA and WSS but I highly doubt it will replicate the success of “A Star Is Born”. 
 

For some reason I compare this to “Scream 4”. Remember when everyone expected 30+ million $ opening based on the trailer reception? Maybe I’m wrong. I don’t see it grossing much more than 60 million $ in the States.

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And the looming IATSE strike might impact the late November/December releases.

This is the big technical union in Hollywood, and the membership voted by a overwhelming majority over 90% to strike the TV/Movie industry. If this happens, almost all post production ,,even things like manfacturing the prints for a film...will come to a halt.

And given the post production usually streaches out of a couple of weeks before a film oopens..sometimes even less...this could have a real impact on December .

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OCTOBER 8-10:

 

1. "No Time To Die" - 83.0

2. "Venom 2" - 33.5 / 146.8

3. “The Addams Family 2" - 7.8 / 29.2

4. “Shang Chi" - 2.9 / 211.3

5. "Many Saints of Newark" - 2.1 / 8.2

6. "Free Guy" - 1.3 / 119.7

7. "Dear Evan Hansen" - 0.9 / 13.6

8. "Candyman" - 0.6 / 60.0

9. "Jungle Cruise" - 0.3 / 116.6

10. "Mass" or "Lamb" - 0.2-0.3

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OCTOBER 15-17:

 

1. "Halloween Kills" - 32.2

2. "No Time To Die" - 24.6 / 99.8

3. "Venom 2" - 16.4 / 168.0

4. “The Addams Family 2" - 6.0 / 41.1

5. "The Last Duel" - 5.5

6. “Shang Chi" - 2.7 / 217.1

7. "Free Guy" - 0.7 / 120.8

8. "Many Saints of Newark" - 0.5 / 8.4

9. "Lamb" - 0.4 / 1.8

10. "Dear Evan Hansen" - 0.4 / 14.6

 

OCTOBER 22-24:

 

1. "Dune" - 38.1

2. "No Time To Die" - 13.8 / 122.5

3. "Halloween Kills" - 10.9 / 51.0

4. "Ron's Gone Wrong" - 9.5

5. "Venom 2" - 9.1 / 182.3

6. "The Addams Family 2" - 3.4 / 46.2

7. "The Last Duel" - 2.9 / 10.2

8. "Shang Chi" - 1.5 / 219.4

Edited by ViktorLosAngeles
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When I saw Bond last week there was about 30 minutes worth of trailers, yes i a green that is way too much. And none of them even looked that good. 

Not sure if I really am intrested in any December release other then Spidey at the moment as well.

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OCTOBER 22-24:

 

1. "Dune" - 36.8

2. "No Time To Die" - 12.6 / 120.7

2. "Halloween Kills" - 12.3 / 70.9

4. "Venom 2" - 8.7 / 181.3

5. "Ron's Gone Wrong" - 6.7

6. "The Addams Family 2" - 4.7 / 48.6

7. "The Last Duel" - 2.5 / 9.0

8. "Shang Chi" - 2.0 / 221.0

9. "The Fench Dispatch" - 0.7

10. "Free Guy" - 0.3 / 121.3

Edited by ViktorLosAngeles
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OCTOBER 29-31:

 

1. "Dune" - 15.2 / 66.7

2. "Halloween Kills" - 7.9 / 84.5

3. "No Time To Die" - 6.2 / 130.5

4. "The Last Night in Soho" - 5.8

5. "Venom 2" - 5.0 / 189.9

6. "Antlers" - 3.6

7. "The Fench Dispatch" - 3.5 / 5.3

8. "Me Hero Academia" - 3.2

9. "Ron's Gone Wrong" - 2.9 / 12.2

10. "The Addams Family 2" - 2.8 / 52.4

11. "Shang Chi" - 1.2 / 222.8

12. "The Last Duel" - 0.8 / 10.0

Edited by ViktorLosAngeles
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NOVEMBER 5-7:

 

1. "Eternals" - 71.2

2. "Dune" - 7.1 / 81.2

3. "No Time To Die" - 4.6 / 140.9

4. "Venom 2" - 3.4 / 195.4

5. "Spencer" - 2.5

6. "The French Dispatch" - 2.2 / 7.5

7. "Halloween Kills" - 1.9 / 89.4

8. "My Hero Academia" - 1.9 / 9.2

9. "Antlers" - 1.8 / 7.0

10. "Ron's Gone Wrong" - 1.8 / 15.0

11. "Last Night in Soho" - 1.6 / 6.6

12. "The Addams Family 2" - 1.3 / 54.5

 

NOVEMBER 12-14:

 

1. "Eternals" - 25.9 / 112.8

2. "Clifford" - 10.3 / 15.2

3. "Dune" - 3.3 / 87.3

4. "No Time To Die" - 2.7 / 145.4

5. "Belfast" - 2.3

6. "Venom 2" - 1.8 / 198.1

7. "Spencer" - 1.4 / 4.6

8. "The French Dispatch" - 1.3 / 9.5

9. "Antlers" - 0.9 / 8.3

10. "Ron's Gone Wrong" - 0.9 / 16.3

11. "Last Night in Soho" - 0.7 / 7.7

12. "Halloween Kills" - 0.5 / 90.3

 

 

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2 hours ago, Krissykins said:

 


The power of Rotten Tomatoes I guess. 

 

In a way, but I have a feeling that wom is not going to do anything, even if it comes from MCU fans. I can see a 30 million $ opening day (with previews) and then it will drop to 23 and 18 probably (Saturday and Sunday).

 

Even Box Office Report lowered the expectations, even though they heavily relied on Fandango's statement how the pre-sales broke all the records.

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