Weekend Prediction thread 4/26-4/28 Play the Derby

[Impact]

4 minutes ago, JB33 said:

1917, when it goes wide on January 10. I think that one is going to do some big business. Looking forward to seeing the PTA after the December 27-29 weekend.

I honestly thought it went wide one week later. (On another note WB did a big mistake on having Jewel open wide first it could of had a nicer opening in January-of course of not for 2 clown films there year was pretty bad but that’s another story)

[JB33]

2 minutes ago, Impact said:

I honestly thought it went wide one week later. (On another note WB did a big mistake on having Jewel open wide first it could of had a nicer opening in January-of course of not for 2 clown films there year was pretty bad but that’s another story)

Yeah, maybe. I guess WB (and maybe Clint himself) wanted to follow the script of The Mule last year.

[JB33]

5 minutes ago, Impact said:

I honestly thought it went wide one week later. (On another note WB did a big mistake on having Jewel open wide first it could of had a nicer opening in January-of course of not for 2 clown films there year was pretty bad but that’s another story)

Also, to your point about thinking it opened a week later....

 

Funny you say that, because if it's tracking really strongly then Universal may want to consider releasing it wide that next weekend, which is MLKJ Day weekend. WB did the same thing with American Sniper 4 years ago (debuted on Christmas Day, expanded wide on January 16) and we all know how that went.

[Viktor Vilotijevic]

Little Women opening with 40+ million? Really? Or is that your wishful thinking?

[Viktor Vilotijevic]

DECEMBER 27-29 (EARLY PROJECTIONS):

 

1. "Star Wars 9" - 60.3 / 308.3

2. "Jumanji 2" - 32.5 / 146.4

3. "Little Women" - 22.8 / 33.1

4. "Frozen 2"  - 16.1 / 414.1

5. "Spies in Disguise" - 13.3 / 19.9

6. "Cats" - 8.6 / 22.5

7. "Knives Out" - 7.8 / 103.4

8. "Uncut Gems" - 7.1 / 9.0

9. "Bombshell" - 6.6 / 17.2

10. "Richard Jewell" - 3.3 / 15.4

11. "Queen and Slim" - 2.4 / 40.7

12. "Ford vs. Ferrari" - 2.3 / 105.9

[Gokira2012]

1 hour ago, Viktor Vilotijevic said:

DECEMBER 27-29 (EARLY PROJECTIONS):

 

1. "Star Wars 9" - 60.3 / 308.3

2. "Jumanji 2" - 32.5 / 146.4

3. "Little Women" - 22.8 / 33.1

4. "Frozen 2"  - 16.1 / 414.1

5. "Spies in Disguise" - 13.3 / 19.9

6. "Cats" - 8.6 / 22.5

7. "Knives Out" - 7.8 / 103.4

8. "Uncut Gems" - 7.1 / 9.0

9. "Bombshell" - 6.6 / 17.2

10. "Richard Jewell" - 3.3 / 15.4

11. "Queen and Slim" - 2.4 / 40.7

12. "Ford vs. Ferrari" - 2.3 / 105.9

that's insane

[Viktor Vilotijevic]

DECEMBER 27-29 (UPDATED):

 

1. "Star Wars 9" - 84.2 / 350.1

2. "Jumanji 2" - 31.1 / 159.2

3. "Little Women" - 22.8 / 33.1

4. "Frozen 2"  - 15.9 / 413.6

5. "Spies in Disguise" - 13.3 / 20.5

6. "Knives Out" - 7.9 / 102.6

7. "Cats" - 6.8 / 18.0

8. "Bombshell" - 6.2 / 15.7

9. "Uncut Gems" - 5.2 / 8.1

10. "Richard Jewell" - 3.0 / 14.8

12. "Ford vs. Ferrari" - 2.3 / 106.0

11. "Queen and Slim" - 2.2 / 40.4

 

Well, I don't see numbers going much higher for other films... As of SW, I'm really confused, since the previous one had 3 weekends in December, opposed to this one having two.

Edited December 23, 2019 by Viktor Vilotijevic

[filmlover]

On 12/21/2019 at 10:00 PM, Viktor Vilotijevic said:

Little Women opening with 40+ million? Really? Or is that your wishful thinking?

The Wolf of Wall Street made $34M over the 5-day frame when it last lined up in 2013 and that went against American Hustle (while this pretty much has the counterprogamming field all to itself, especially with Cats flopping). Truthfully, though, numbers in that same area are more likely the ceiling followed by good legs to a similar total, but I decided to go for the "breakout" predictions for that and Spies since it's Christmas (the time of the year for wishful thinking heh).

Edited December 24, 2019 by filmlover

[Viktor Vilotijevic]

I think we are all overestimating opening for "Little Women". I still believe that there is a solid chance for 100 million + total, but 30 - 40 million opening, even for five days... (I put 33 million $ total for 5 days and I am still skeptic about it).

 

I wouldn't be surprised if this opens in mid teens and up to 23-5 million $ 5 day total.

[commendable]

175.5m opening for TROS  right? im gonna say  around 55% drop so around  90-95 milllion

[JB33]

8 minutes ago, commendable said:

175.5m opening for TROS  right? im gonna say  around 55% drop so around  90-95 milllion

$177.38M. A 55% drop from that would be $79.82M so....

[Gokira2012]

TROS= 68% drop so  $56,000,000

[Blankments]

On 12/19/2019 at 1:29 PM, Blankments said:

Joker, Playmobil: The Movie, The Body, Midway, Pati Patni Aur Woh, Honey Boy, Terminator: Dark Fate, Last Christmas, Mardaani 2, Panipat, Doctor Sleep, Harriet, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil and No Safe Spaces are gone.

Only Cloud Knows, Playing With Fire, En Brazos De Un Asesino and Sheep Without a Shepherd are gone.

 

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker - 109/50/13/17/3 (2D/3D/Dolby/IMAX/IMAX 3D) total 192 (down 81)

Jumanji: The Next Level - 76/1 (2D/3D) total 77 (down 33)

Spies in Disguise - 55/19 (2D/3D) total 74 (debut)

Cats - 65 (down 5)

Little Women - 65 (debut)

Frozen II - 55 (down 7)

Uncut Gems - 51 (debut)

Bombshell - 50 (no change)

Knives Out - 50 (down 1)

Richard Jewell - 35 (down 12)

Queen & Slim - 15 (down 9)

Ford v Ferrari - 14 (down 15)

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood - 11 (up 2)

1917 - 10 (debut)

Black Christmas - 8 (down 27)

Good Newwz Subbed - 8 (debut)

21 Bridges - 6 (up 1)

Ip Man 4 Subbed - 5 (debut)

Dabangg 3 Subbed - 4 (down 4)

Dark Waters - 4 (down 2)

A Hidden Life - 3 (down 1)

Jojo Rabbit - 2 (no change)

Parasite Subbed - 1 (no change)

 

[Viktor Vilotijevic]

I think Star Wars won't have a bigger drop than 50-55%.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Early guesses this weekend after Christmas?

 

 

[Viktor Vilotijevic]

DECEMBER 27-29 (FINAL PROJECTIONS):

 

1. "Star Wars 9" - 87.7 / 377.4

2. "Jumanji 2" - 31.1 / 171.3

3. "Frozen 2"  - 18.4 / 423.0

4. "Little Women" - 16.1 / 28.6

5. "Spies in Disguise" - 13.3 / 22.6

6. "Knives Out" - 12.2 / 112.8

7. "Uncut Gems" - 10.2 / 20.6

8. "Cats" - 5.0 / 18.1

9. "Bombshell" - 4.5 / 15.4

10. "Richard Jewell" - 3.0 / 16.0

12. "Ford vs. Ferrari" - 2.3 / 106.5

11. "Queen and Slim" - 1.9 / 40.2

 

JANUARY 3-5:

 

1. "Star Wars 9" - 48.8 / 480.0

2. "Jumanji 2" - 18.8 / 218.1

3. "Little Women" - 11.6 / 50.9

4. "Frozen 2" - 11.0 / 447.0

5. "Spies in Disguise" - 7.5 / 39.3

6. "Knives Out" - 7.1 / 129.5

7. "The Grudge" - 7.0

8. "Uncut Gems" - 6.7 / 33.8

9. "Bombshell" - 2.8 / 22.0

10. "Cats" - 2.4 / 24.1

11. "Richard Jewell" - 1.6 / 19.7

12. "Ford vs. Ferrari" - 1.2 / 109.4

 

+ if they expand "1917" a little bit more because of the Globes, I can see it making 1 million $ with a total of 2.5 million $.

 

Edited December 27, 2019 by Viktor Vilotijevic

[LPLC]

4 hours ago, Viktor Vilotijevic said:

DECEMBER 27-29 (FINAL PROJECTIONS):

 

1. "Star Wars 9" - 87.7 / 377.4

2. "Jumanji 2" - 31.1 / 171.3

3. "Frozen 2"  - 18.4 / 423.0

4. "Little Women" - 16.1 / 28.6

5. "Spies in Disguise" - 13.3 / 22.6

6. "Knives Out" - 12.2 / 112.8

7. "Uncut Gems" - 10.2 / 20.6

8. "Cats" - 5.0 / 18.1

9. "Bombshell" - 4.5 / 15.4

10. "Richard Jewell" - 3.0 / 16.0

12. "Ford vs. Ferrari" - 2.3 / 106.5

11. "Queen and Slim" - 1.9 / 40.2

 

JANUARY 3-5:

 

1. "Star Wars 9" - 48.8 / 480.0

2. "Jumanji 2" - 18.8 / 218.1

3. "Little Women" - 11.6 / 50.9

4. "Frozen 2" - 11.0 / 447.0

5. "Spies in Disguise" - 7.5 / 39.3

6. "Knives Out" - 7.1 / 129.5

7. "The Grudge" - 7.0

8. "Uncut Gems" - 6.7 / 33.8

9. "Bombshell" - 2.8 / 22.0

10. "Cats" - 2.4 / 24.1

11. "Richard Jewell" - 1.6 / 19.7

12. "Ford vs. Ferrari" - 1.2 / 109.4

 

+ if they expand "1917" a little bit more because of the Globes, I can see it making 1 million $ with a total of 2.5 million $.

 

This is a really little drop for TROS in 3th-5th January, are you sure about that ?

[JB33]

18 minutes ago, LPLC said:

This is a really little drop for TROS in 3th-5th January, are you sure about that ?

Yeah, @Viktor Vilotijevic is usually really conservative with his predictions but he's being uncharacteristically generous with TROS in that last post. I'd be thrilled if those numbers came to pass!

[Gokira2012]

On 12/26/2019 at 11:49 AM, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Early guesses this weekend after Christmas?

 

 

Box Office Pro says 81 Million https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-forecast-star-wars-the-rise-of-skywalker-chases-85-100m-second-frame-could-overtake-the-pace-of-last-jedi-little-women-uncut-gems/

[OdinSon2k14]

I wanna catch Bombshell tomorrow...its in some limited release thing, so it's not at the local AMC, it's at the larger one. 

 

Charlize Theron likes playing these feminist roles, where the men are put in their place 😂.