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Weekend Prediction thread (2/16-2/19) | Play the Derby

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4 minutes ago, Gokira2012 said:

I'm here for the justice league bomb party

Shu da fug uuhhh bish wibba 

Edited by raegr
  • Sad 1

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These are going to be hilariously wrong:

 

12/1

  1. Coco - $25.5m
  2. Justice League - $19.5m
  3. Wonder - $13m
  4. Thor: Ragnarok - $7.6m
  5. Murder on the Orient Express - $7.1m
  6. Daddy's Home 2 - $6.9m
  7. The Star - $4.3m
  8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, MO - $3m
  9. A Bad Moms Christmas - $2.7m

12/8

  1. Coco - $18m
  2. Justice League - $12m
  3. Wonder - $9m
  4. Just Getting Started - $8.5m
  5. The Disaster Artist - $7.5m
  6. Thor: Ragnarok - $5m
  7. Daddy's Home 2 - $4.7m
  8. Murder on the Orient Express - $4.6m
  9. The Star - $3.4m
  10. A Bad Moms Christmas - $2.3m

12/15

  1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi - $225m
  2. Ferdinand - $22m
  3. Coco - $10m
  4. Wonder - $5m
  5. Justice League - $5m
  6. Just Getting Started - $4m
  7. The Disaster Artist - $3.5m
  8. The Star - $2.2m
  9. Thor: Ragnarok - $2m
  10. Daddy's Home 2 - $1.9m

12/22

  1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi - $90m
  2. Jumani: Welcome to the Jungle - $20m
  3. Pitch Perfect 3 - $18m
  4. Ferdinand - $13m
  5. The Greatest Showman - $10.5m
  6. Father Figures - $7.5m
  7. Downsizing - $6.5m
  8. Coco - $6m
  9. All The Money in the World - $5.5m
  10. The Shape of Water - $3m

12/29

  1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi - $72m
  2. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle - $23m
  3. Ferdinand - $17m
  4. Pitch Perfect 3 - $15m
  5. The Greatest Showman - $14m
  6. Coco - $9m
  7. Father Figures - $8.5m
  8. Downsizing - $7.7m
  9. All The Money in the World - $6m
  10. The Shape of Water - $4.5m
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Spoiler

12/1

  1. Coco: $24 million ($101 million)
  2. Justice League: $16 million ($196 million)
  3. Wonder: $13 million ($87 million)
  4. Thor - Ragnorak: $8 million ($289 million) 
  5. Murder on the Orient Express: $7 million ($85 million) 
  6. Daddy's Home 2: $6.5 million ($81 million) 
  7. The Star: $5 million ($29 million) 
  8. A Bad Moms Christmas: $3 million ($63 million) 
  9. Three Billboards Outside Ebbings, Missouri: $3 million ($12 million) 
  10. Lady Bird: $2.5 million ($14 million) 

12/8

  1. Coco: $20 million ($128 million)
  2. Wonder: $13.5 million ($105 million)
  3. Justice League: $9.5 million ($210 million)
  4. The Disaster Artist: $6.5 million ($8 million) 
  5. Thor - Ragnorak: $6 million ($298 million) 
  6. Murder on the Orient Express: $5 million ($92 million)
  7. Daddy's Home 2: $5 million ($88 million)
  8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbings, Missouri: $4.5 million ($18 million) 
  9. The Star: $4 million ($34 million) 
  10. Lady Bird: $3.5 million ($19 million) 
  11. Just Getting Started: $3 million 
  12. A Bad Moms Christmas: $2 million ($66 million) 

12/15

  1. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $224.5 million 
  2. Ferdinand: $13 million 
  3. Coco: $12 million ($144 million) 
  4. Wonder: $8.5 million ($117 million) 
  5. The Disaster Artist: $4 million ($15 million) 
  6. Murder on the Orient Express: $2.5 million ($96 million) 
  7. Justice League: $2.5 million ($214 million) 
  8. Daddy's Home 2: $2.5 million ($91 million) 
  9. Three Billboards Outside Ebbings, Missouri: $2.5 million ($21 million) 
  10. The Star: $2 million ($36 million) 
  11. Lady Bird: $2 million ($22 million) 
  12. Thor - Ragnorak: $2 million ($301 million) 

12/22

  1. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $110 million/$158 million ($492 million) 
  2. Pitch Perfect 3: $26.5 million/$38 million 
  3. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $23.5 million/$37.5 million ($54 million) 
  4. The Greatest Showman: $18 million/$27 million ($43 million) 
  5. Ferdinand: $14 million/$21 million ($48 million) 
  6. Coco: $13.5 million/$20 million ($177 million) 
  7. Wonder: $11 million/$17 million ($145 million) 
  8. The Disaster Artist: $7 million/$10 million ($28 million) 
  9. Downsizing: $6.5 million/$9 million 
  10. Father Figures: $5 million/$6.75 million 
  11. Three Billboards Outside Ebbings, Missouri: $3 million/$4.5 million ($28 million) 
  12. Lady Bird: $2.75 million/$4 million ($29 million) 
  13. The Star: $2.25 million/$3.75 million ($43 million) 
  14. Daddy's Home 2: $2 million/$3.25 million ($97 million) 
  15. Murder on the Orient Express: $2 million/$3 million ($101 million) 

12/29

  1. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $65 million/$97 million ($654 million) 
  2. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $25 million/$36 million ($115 million) 
  3. Pitch Perfect 3: $19 million/$25.5 million ($82 million)
  4. The Greatest Showman: $17 million/$23 million ($83 million)
  5. Ferdinand: $15.5 million/$20 million ($83 million)
  6. Coco: $14 million/$17.5 million ($208 million)
  7. Wonder: $13 million/$17 million ($175 million)
  8. The Disaster Artist: $9 million/$12 million ($49 million)
  9. Downsizing: $5 million/$6.25 million ($21 million)
  10. Father Figures: $3.5 million/$4.5 million ($15 million) 
  11. Three Billboards Outside Ebbings, Missouri: $3 million/$4 million ($35 million) 
  12. Lady Bird: $2.5 million/$3.5 million ($35 million) 
  13. Murder on the Orient Express: $1.5 million/$2 million ($104 million) 
  14. Justice League: $1.5 million/$2 million ($219 million)
  15. Daddy's Home 2: $1.25 million/$1.75 million ($100 million)

1/5

  1. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $30.5 million ($699 million)
  2. Insidious - The Last Key: $16.5 million 
  3. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $12 million ($131 million)
  4. Pitch Perfect 3: $9 million ($96 million) 
  5. The Greatest Showman: $8 million ($95 million) 
  6. Ferdinand: $8 million ($94 million)
  7. Coco: $7.5 million ($219 million) 
  8. Wonder: $7 million ($186 million) 
  9. Molly's Game: $6 million ($8 million) 
  10. The Disaster Artist: $5.5 million ($58 million) 
  11. The Shape of Water: $4 million ($10 million)

1/12

  1. Paddington 2: $23 million/$32 million 
  2. The Post: $21 million/$27.5 million ($31 million)
  3. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $18.5 million/$25 million ($733 million) 
  4. Proud Mary: $17 million/$21.5 million 
  5. The Commuter: $12 million/$14.5 million 
  6. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $7 million/$9.5 million ($144 million) 
  7. Wonder: $6 million/$8.5 million ($197 million) 
  8. Coco: $6 million/$8.5 million ($229 million) 
  9. The Shape of Water: $5.5 million/$7 million ($18 million) 
  10. The Disaster Artist: $4.5 million/$5.5 million ($66 million)

1/19

  1. 12 Strong: $18 million 
  2. Paddington 2: $14 million ($49 million) 
  3. The Post: $13.5 million ($50 million) 
  4. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $10 million ($748 million) 
  5. The Shape of Water: $8 million ($27 million) 
  6. Den of Thieves: $7.5 million 
  7. Proud Mary: $6 million ($31 million) 
  8. The Disaster Artist: $5 million ($72 million) 
  9. The Commuter: $4 million ($20 million) 
  10. Wonder: $4 million ($202 million) 
  11. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $3.5 million ($148 million) 
  12. Coco: $3.5 million ($233 million) 

1/26

  1. Maze Runner - The Death Cure: $24 million 
  2. Paddington 2: $12.5 million ($65 million) 
  3. The Post: $12 million ($68 million) 
  4. The Shape of Water: $10.5 million ($41 million) 
  5. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $7 million ($759 million) 
  6. The Disaster Artist: $5.5 million ($79 million) 
  7. Phantom Thread: $4 million ($11 million) 
  8. Den of Thieves: $3 million ($12 million) 
  9. Wonder: $3 million ($206 million) 
  10. Coco: $2.5 million ($236 million) 
  11. Proud Mary: $2 million ($34 million) 
  12. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $2 million ($151 million) 

2/2

  1. Cloverfield 3: $31 million 
  2. Maze Runner - The Death Cure: $10.5 million ($40 million) 
  3. Paddington 2: $8.5 million ($76 million) 
  4. The Post: $7.5 million ($79 million) 
  5. The Shape of Water: $7 million ($52 million) 
  6. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $4 million ($765 million) 
  7. The Disaster Artist: $3.5 million ($84 million) 
  8. Winchester - The House That Ghosts Built: $3 million 
  9. Phantom Thread: $2.5 million ($15 million) 
  10. Wonder: $2 million ($209 million) 
  11. Den of Thieves: $1.5 million ($14 million) 
  12. Coco: $1.5 million ($238 million) 

2/9

  1. The 15:17 to Paris: $42 million
  2. Fifty Shades Freed: $41.5 million
  3. Peter Rabbit: $23.5 million 
  4. Cloverfield 3: $15 million ($54 million) 
  5. The Post: $6 million ($88 million) 
  6. Maze Runner - The Death Cure: $6 million ($49 million) 
  7. Paddington 2: $5.5 million ($83 million) 
  8. The Shape of Water: $5 million ($59 million) 
  9. The Hurricane Heist: $3.5 million 
  10. The Disaster Artist: $2.5 million ($88 million) 
  11. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $2 million ($768 million) 
  12. Phantom Thread: $1.75 million ($17 million) 

2/16

  1. Black Panther: $134 million/$158 million 
  2. The 15:17 to Paris: $23 million/$29.5 million ($86 million) 
  3. Fifty Shades Darker: $16 million/$20 million ($75 million) 
  4. Peter Rabbit: $15 million/$20 million ($48 million) 
  5. Cloverfield 3: $8 million/$10 million ($69 million) 
  6. Early Man: $6 million/$7.5 million 
  7. Samson: $5 million/$6 million 
  8. The Post: $5 million/$6 million ($97 million) 
  9. Paddington 2: $4 million/$5.25 million ($90 million) 
  10. The Shape of Water: $4 million/$5 million ($67 million) 
  11. Maze Runner - The Death Cure: $2 million/$2.5 million ($53 million) 
  12. The Disaster Artist: $2 million/$2.5 million ($92 million) 

 

 

Edited by mahnamahna
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50 minutes ago, Maxmoser3 said:

Nothing new for the next few weeks. 

Yep. When this weekend is over we pretty much enter a dead zone until TLJ on December 15, except for a few limited releases that may go wide on the 1st, and JUST GETTING STARTED on the 8th.

 

Definition of the quiet before the storm.

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27 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Yep. When this weekend is over we pretty much enter a dead zone until TLJ on December 15, except for a few limited releases that may go wide on the 1st, and JUST GETTING STARTED on the 8th.

 

Definition of the quiet before the storm.

The limited releases will be more sucessful than Just Getting Started. Lady Bird and Three Billboards will be sucessful expansions. Holdovers are also possiby going to do strong prior to Star Wars making a killing. 

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Coco: 24M

Wonder: 13.4M

Justice League: 13.3M

Three Billboards: 8.6M (I'm expecting 1,500 theaters; 6.1M if the TC is 1,000+ like currently planned)

Thor: Ragnarok: 8.1M
Murder on the Orient Express: 6.1M

Daddy's Home 2: 6M

Lady Bird: 5.7M (I'm expecting 1,300 theaters)

The Star: 2.6M

Roman Israel/A Bad Moms Christmas: 2.3M

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  1. Coco - 25.5M
  2. Justice League - 14.3M
  3. Wonder - 13.5M
  4. Murder on the Orient Express - 8.22M
  5. Thor: Ragnarok - 8.18M
  6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - 7.2M
  7. Daddy's Home 2 - 6.1M
  8. Lady Bird - 5.65M
  9. The Star - 2.89M
  10. A Bad Moms Christmas - 2.61M
  11. Roman J. Israel, Esq. - 2.26M
  12. The Man Who Invented Christmas - 497k

 

Edited by That One Guy

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December 1st to 3rd

PREDICTION - THEATER COUNTS

 

Star Wars – 4,242

Ferdinand – 3,748

Permanent – 5

 

Just Getting Started – 2,750

I, Tonya – 4 …….   30……. 50

November Criminals – 25…… 50

Hollow in the Land – 25…….. 50

 

#of weeks in release

2 Coco-4,000

3 Coco -4,000

4 Coco – 3,500

 

3Justice 4,050

4Justice 3,950

4Justice 2,850

 

4Wndr 3,200

5Wndr 3,200

6Wndr 2,200

 

5Thor– 3,200

6Thor- 3,100

7Thor – 1,900

 

4DH2 - 3,450

5DH2 3200

6DH2 1900

 

4Murder  3100

5Murder 3000

6 Murder 1900

 

3Star – 2,737

4Star – 1,500

4Srar – 1,000

 

5BC2 2056

6BC2 1800

7BC2 700

 

3Roman 1,700

4Roman 1,700

5Roman 700

 

4Billboard 1,000

5Billboard 2,000

6Billboard 1,500

 

5LB- 900

6LB- 900

7LB - 600

 

2XMAS-  616

3XMAS- 616

4XMAS- 316

 

2Call – 26

3Call – 60

4Call – 150

 

2Darkest – 4

3Darkest – 30

4Darkest-150

 

9BR2049 420

10BR2049 400

11BR2049 250

 

6Jigsaw 250

7Jigsaw 175

8Jigsaw 175

 

7Boo 2 150

8Boo 2 150

9Boo 2 135

 

7Geo 125

8Geo 175

9 Geo 175

 

7Brave 110

8Brave 135

9 Brave 110

 

8Foreign-150(+46)

9 Foreign-150

10 Foreign 150

 

8HDD-135(+4)

9HDD-135

10HDD- 100

 

11Ninja-262(-30)

12Ninja-250

13Ninja-225

 

11K2 – 150 (-23)

12K2 – 150

13K2- 135 (-15)

 

13IT-230(-1)

14IT-225(-5)

15IT-200(-25)

 

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Saturday to Saturday declines in PTA from Moana last year in weeks 1 and 2

           week 1  --  week 2 = (week2)/(week1)

Moana 688   --   387 = .5625

FB 483   --   235 = .487

DR.S 209   --   122 = .584

Arrival 212  --  131 = .62

Trolls- 140   --   89 = .64

Almost 155   --   92 = .594

Hacksaw  106   --   69 = .65

Seventeen 72  --  51 = .71

Moonlight  90  --   76 = .84

Bleed  27   --   23 = .85

Accountant  89   --   66 = .74

Jack Reacher 2 - 49 -- 42 = .86

 

 

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Coco = 2/3 Sat = $2,766 (4,000 locations) ... $27,000,000

JL = .5 Sat = $1,944 (4,050 locations) ... $17,700,000

Wonder = .625 Sat = $1,658.75 (3,200 locations) ... $12,390,000

Thor = .59 Sat = $1,003 (3,200 locations) ... $7,360,000

Daddy's Home 2 = .6 Sat = $901.2 (3,450 locations) ... $6,950,000

Murder = .625 Sat = $997.5 (3,100 locations) ... $6,950,000

Star = 2/3 Sat = $604 (2,737 locations) ... $3,720,000

BMC = 2/3 Sat = $583 (2,056 locations) ... $2,720,000

3 Billboards = 2/3 Sat = $1,833 ... $4,277,000

Lady Bird = 2/3 Sat = $1,301 (900 locations) ... $2,610,000

Roman = 2/3 Sat = $677.33 (1,700 locations) ... $2,600,000

XMAS = .75 Sat = $627 (616 locations) ... $880,000

BR2049 = .85 Sat = $414.8 (420 locations) ... $400,000

Jigsaw = .85 Sat = $358.7 (250 locations) ... $250,000

Boo 2 = .90 Sat = $302.4 (150 locations) .... $102,000

It = .90 Sat = $297 (230 locations) ...$156,000

Kingsman = .95 Sat = $250.8 (150 locations) ... = $83,000

Ninjago= 1.00 Sat = $250

Brave = 1.00 Sat = $276

Foreigner = 1.00 Sat = $274

Mountain = 1.00 Sat = $233

HDD = 1.20 SAT = $258 (135 locations) ... = $78,000

Geo = 1.00 Sat = $387 (125 location) ... = $105,000

Darkest Hour = 1.00 Sat = $16,399 (4 locations) .... = $154,040

Call Me by Your Name = .5 Sat = $17,500 (26 locations) .... = $1,105,000

 

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Coco -45.6% 27.5 - 109.0

Justice League -58.5%- 17.0 - 198.0

Wonder -47.0% 12.0 - 88.0

Thor -55.5% 7.5 - 289.25

Daddy's Home 2 -47% 7.0 - 82.5

Murder -47% 7.0 - 85.00

3 Billboard - 5.0 - 14.00
The Star -50% 3.5 - 26.5

Lady Bird -22.4% 3.15 - 15.25

Roman -29.2% 3.15 - 10.75

Bad Moms -44% 2.75 - 63.75

XMAS -26.0% 1.00 - 3.30

 

Week After

Coco - 21.0 - 136.25

Justice - 11.0 - 215.0

Wonder - 9.0 - 101.0

Started - 6.0 - 6.00

3BB - 6.0 - 22.25

Thor - 5.0 - 296.0

DH2 - 4.5 - 89.0

Murder - 4.5 - 92.5

Star - 2.5 - 29.50

Lady Bird - 2.20 - 19.00

Roman - 2.00 - 14.25

Bad Moms - 2.00 - 67.00

XMAS - 0.75 - 4.50

 

STAR WARS tbc

Star Wars - 250

Coco - 14.5 - 154.75

Ferdinand - 13.5

Wonder - 5.5 - 109.25

Justice - 5.5 - 224.50

3BB - 4.5 - 29.75

Thor - 2.5 - 301.00

DH2 - 2.2 - 93.00

Murder - 2.2 - 96.50

Lady Bird - 1.40 - 21.50

Roman - 1.25 - 16.50

Star - 1.00 - 31.00

Bad Moms - 0.90 - 68.75

XMAS - 0.50 - 5.30

Edited by Matrix4You

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Despite a 82 vs 73 5-day disparity, Coco's Wed is marginally higher than Moana's. Even if Coco's 2nd weekend does not match Moana's 28m+, I don't think it will fall below 26m:

 

[Moana's holds in square brackets]

Wed 2

Thu 1.9 (-5%) [-3%]

Fri 6 (+215%) [+239%]

Sat 12 (+100%) [+98%]

Sun 8 (-33%) [-32%]

= 26 (-48%) [-50%]

Edited by a2knet

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6 hours ago, harsh3090416 said:

AMC is releasing Titanic again on their Dolby Screens ~90 screens. Do we have anyway to track this run?

BOM is tracking it

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On 11/23/2017 at 11:43 AM, Poe Blankeron said:

Let There Be Light, Thank You For Your Service, and Marshall are gone.

Wow, everything stayed. That's unusual. That's post-Thanksgiving though.

 

Coco - 12/2 (2D/3D) total 14 (down 4)

Daddy's Home 2 - 13 (down 1)
Justice League - 11/2 (2D/3D) total 13 (down 5)

The Star - 12 (down 2)
Thor: Ragnarok - 12 (down 2)

Wonder - 11 (up 1)

Murder on the Orient Express - 10 (down 4)
A Bad Moms Christmas - 6 (up 4)

Lady Bird - 5 (debut)

Marshall - 3 (return)

Roman J. Israel, Esq. - 3 (down 1)

Blade Runner 2049 - 2 (down 2)

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next two weekends

 

1st - 3rd December 2017

 

1. Coco $27.9/$115.5

2. Justice League $22.9/$205.5

3. Wonder $17.2/$96.5

4. Thor: Ragnarok $11.8/$296

5. Murder on the Orient Express $9.9/$90

6. Daddy's Home 2 $9.3/$87.5

7. The Star $4.5/$29.5

8. Three Billboards $4.4/$14.5

9. Lady Bird $3.8/$17

10. A Bad Moms Christmas $2.9/$64.5

 

The Disaster Artist $1.24

The Shape of Water $.3

Wonder Wheel $.1

Titanic (20th Ann.) $.7

Darkest Hour $.1

Call Me By Your Name $.25

 

8th - 10th December 2017

 

1. Coco $19.5/$145

2. Wonder $13.6/$109.6

3. Justice League $12.6/$226

4. Thor: Ragnarok $8.3/$309

5. Murder on the Orient Express $5.9/$100

6. Daddy's Home 2 $5.8/$97.3

7. Just Getting Started $4.5

8. Three Billboards $3/$19.5

9. The Star $2.7/$34

10. Lady Bird $2.5/$21.3

 

I, Tonya $.3 (4)/$1.4 (20)

November Criminals $.15 (4)/$.7 (20)

 

15th - 17th December 2017

 

1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi $230

2. Ferdinand $19.5

3. Coco $9.8/$161

4. Wonder $8.3/$122.5

5. The Shape of Water $7.5 (if wide)

6. Justice League $5/$234

7. Thor: Ragnarok $3.7/$315

8. Murder on the Orient Express $3/$105

9. Daddy's Home 2 $2.8/$102

10. Just Getting Started $2.1/$8

 

22nd - 24th December 2017

 

1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi $115/$405

2. Pitch Perfect 3 $37.5

3. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle $27.5/$35

4. The Greatest Showman $23.5/$28.5

5. Downsizing $19.5

6. Ferdinand $11.7/$38

7. All The Money In The World $11

8. Coco $6.5/$171.5

9. Wonder $5.5/$131

10. The Shape of Water $5/$15

 

The Post $.5 (4)/$1.7 (20)

 

29th - 31st December 2017

 

1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi $70/$525

2. Pitch Perfect 3 $20/$78

3. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle $18/$64.5

4. The Greatest Showman $15/$53

5. Downsizing $13/$40.5

6. Ferdinand $8.5/$52.3

7. All The Money In The World $8/$24.2

8. Coco $5/$180

9. Wonder $4.3/$138.5

10. The Shape of Water $4/$22

 

Molly's Game $.2 (4)/$.7 (20)

Phantom Thread $.6 (4)/$2 (20)

Film Stars Don't Die In Liverpool $.1 (4)/$.3 (20)

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