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Weekend Prediction thread 4/19-4/21 Play the Derby

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dxmatrixdt Summer Tentpole

dxmatrixdt

Posted
Posted

December 1st to 3rd

PREDICTION - THEATER COUNTS

 

Star Wars – 4,242

Ferdinand – 3,748

Permanent – 5

 

Just Getting Started – 2,750

I, Tonya – 4 …….   30……. 50

November Criminals – 25…… 50

Hollow in the Land – 25…….. 50

 

#of weeks in release

2 Coco-4,000

3 Coco -4,000

4 Coco – 3,500

 

3Justice 4,050

4Justice 3,950

4Justice 2,850

 

4Wndr 3,200

5Wndr 3,200

6Wndr 2,200

 

5Thor– 3,200

6Thor- 3,100

7Thor – 1,900

 

4DH2 - 3,450

5DH2 3200

6DH2 1900

 

4Murder  3100

5Murder 3000

6 Murder 1900

 

3Star – 2,737

4Star – 1,500

4Srar – 1,000

 

5BC2 2056

6BC2 1800

7BC2 700

 

3Roman 1,700

4Roman 1,700

5Roman 700

 

4Billboard 1,000

5Billboard 2,000

6Billboard 1,500

 

5LB- 900

6LB- 900

7LB - 600

 

2XMAS-  616

3XMAS- 616

4XMAS- 316

 

2Call – 26

3Call – 60

4Call – 150

 

2Darkest – 4

3Darkest – 30

4Darkest-150

 

9BR2049 420

10BR2049 400

11BR2049 250

 

6Jigsaw 250

7Jigsaw 175

8Jigsaw 175

 

7Boo 2 150

8Boo 2 150

9Boo 2 135

 

7Geo 125

8Geo 175

9 Geo 175

 

7Brave 110

8Brave 135

9 Brave 110

 

8Foreign-150(+46)

9 Foreign-150

10 Foreign 150

 

8HDD-135(+4)

9HDD-135

10HDD- 100

 

11Ninja-262(-30)

12Ninja-250

13Ninja-225

 

11K2 – 150 (-23)

12K2 – 150

13K2- 135 (-15)

 

13IT-230(-1)

14IT-225(-5)

15IT-200(-25)

 

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dxmatrixdt Summer Tentpole

dxmatrixdt

Posted
Posted

Saturday to Saturday declines in PTA from Moana last year in weeks 1 and 2

           week 1  --  week 2 = (week2)/(week1)

Moana 688   --   387 = .5625

FB 483   --   235 = .487

DR.S 209   --   122 = .584

Arrival 212  --  131 = .62

Trolls- 140   --   89 = .64

Almost 155   --   92 = .594

Hacksaw  106   --   69 = .65

Seventeen 72  --  51 = .71

Moonlight  90  --   76 = .84

Bleed  27   --   23 = .85

Accountant  89   --   66 = .74

Jack Reacher 2 - 49 -- 42 = .86

 

 

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dxmatrixdt Summer Tentpole

dxmatrixdt

Posted
Posted

Coco = 2/3 Sat = $2,766 (4,000 locations) ... $27,000,000

JL = .5 Sat = $1,944 (4,050 locations) ... $17,700,000

Wonder = .625 Sat = $1,658.75 (3,200 locations) ... $12,390,000

Thor = .59 Sat = $1,003 (3,200 locations) ... $7,360,000

Daddy's Home 2 = .6 Sat = $901.2 (3,450 locations) ... $6,950,000

Murder = .625 Sat = $997.5 (3,100 locations) ... $6,950,000

Star = 2/3 Sat = $604 (2,737 locations) ... $3,720,000

BMC = 2/3 Sat = $583 (2,056 locations) ... $2,720,000

3 Billboards = 2/3 Sat = $1,833 ... $4,277,000

Lady Bird = 2/3 Sat = $1,301 (900 locations) ... $2,610,000

Roman = 2/3 Sat = $677.33 (1,700 locations) ... $2,600,000

XMAS = .75 Sat = $627 (616 locations) ... $880,000

BR2049 = .85 Sat = $414.8 (420 locations) ... $400,000

Jigsaw = .85 Sat = $358.7 (250 locations) ... $250,000

Boo 2 = .90 Sat = $302.4 (150 locations) .... $102,000

It = .90 Sat = $297 (230 locations) ...$156,000

Kingsman = .95 Sat = $250.8 (150 locations) ... = $83,000

Ninjago= 1.00 Sat = $250

Brave = 1.00 Sat = $276

Foreigner = 1.00 Sat = $274

Mountain = 1.00 Sat = $233

HDD = 1.20 SAT = $258 (135 locations) ... = $78,000

Geo = 1.00 Sat = $387 (125 location) ... = $105,000

Darkest Hour = 1.00 Sat = $16,399 (4 locations) .... = $154,040

Call Me by Your Name = .5 Sat = $17,500 (26 locations) .... = $1,105,000

 

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dxmatrixdt Summer Tentpole

dxmatrixdt

Posted
Posted (edited)

Coco -45.6% 27.5 - 109.0

Justice League -58.5%- 17.0 - 198.0

Wonder -47.0% 12.0 - 88.0

Thor -55.5% 7.5 - 289.25

Daddy's Home 2 -47% 7.0 - 82.5

Murder -47% 7.0 - 85.00

3 Billboard - 5.0 - 14.00
The Star -50% 3.5 - 26.5

Lady Bird -22.4% 3.15 - 15.25

Roman -29.2% 3.15 - 10.75

Bad Moms -44% 2.75 - 63.75

XMAS -26.0% 1.00 - 3.30

 

Week After

Coco - 21.0 - 136.25

Justice - 11.0 - 215.0

Wonder - 9.0 - 101.0

Started - 6.0 - 6.00

3BB - 6.0 - 22.25

Thor - 5.0 - 296.0

DH2 - 4.5 - 89.0

Murder - 4.5 - 92.5

Star - 2.5 - 29.50

Lady Bird - 2.20 - 19.00

Roman - 2.00 - 14.25

Bad Moms - 2.00 - 67.00

XMAS - 0.75 - 4.50

 

STAR WARS tbc

Star Wars - 250

Coco - 14.5 - 154.75

Ferdinand - 13.5

Wonder - 5.5 - 109.25

Justice - 5.5 - 224.50

3BB - 4.5 - 29.75

Thor - 2.5 - 301.00

DH2 - 2.2 - 93.00

Murder - 2.2 - 96.50

Lady Bird - 1.40 - 21.50

Roman - 1.25 - 16.50

Star - 1.00 - 31.00

Bad Moms - 0.90 - 68.75

XMAS - 0.50 - 5.30

Edited by Matrix4You
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a2k Global Phenomenon

a2k

Posted
Posted (edited)

Despite a 82 vs 73 5-day disparity, Coco's Wed is marginally higher than Moana's. Even if Coco's 2nd weekend does not match Moana's 28m+, I don't think it will fall below 26m:

 

[Moana's holds in square brackets]

Wed 2

Thu 1.9 (-5%) [-3%]

Fri 6 (+215%) [+239%]

Sat 12 (+100%) [+98%]

Sun 8 (-33%) [-32%]

= 26 (-48%) [-50%]

Edited by a2knet
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Blankments Global Phenomenon

Blankments

Posted
Posted
On 11/23/2017 at 11:43 AM, Poe Blankeron said:

Let There Be Light, Thank You For Your Service, and Marshall are gone.

Wow, everything stayed. That's unusual. That's post-Thanksgiving though.

 

Coco - 12/2 (2D/3D) total 14 (down 4)

Daddy's Home 2 - 13 (down 1)
Justice League - 11/2 (2D/3D) total 13 (down 5)

The Star - 12 (down 2)
Thor: Ragnarok - 12 (down 2)

Wonder - 11 (up 1)

Murder on the Orient Express - 10 (down 4)
A Bad Moms Christmas - 6 (up 4)

Lady Bird - 5 (debut)

Marshall - 3 (return)

Roman J. Israel, Esq. - 3 (down 1)

Blade Runner 2049 - 2 (down 2)

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Dandeak2000 Sleeper Hit

Dandeak2000

Posted
Posted

next two weekends

 

1st - 3rd December 2017

 

1. Coco $27.9/$115.5

2. Justice League $22.9/$205.5

3. Wonder $17.2/$96.5

4. Thor: Ragnarok $11.8/$296

5. Murder on the Orient Express $9.9/$90

6. Daddy's Home 2 $9.3/$87.5

7. The Star $4.5/$29.5

8. Three Billboards $4.4/$14.5

9. Lady Bird $3.8/$17

10. A Bad Moms Christmas $2.9/$64.5

 

The Disaster Artist $1.24

The Shape of Water $.3

Wonder Wheel $.1

Titanic (20th Ann.) $.7

Darkest Hour $.1

Call Me By Your Name $.25

 

8th - 10th December 2017

 

1. Coco $19.5/$145

2. Wonder $13.6/$109.6

3. Justice League $12.6/$226

4. Thor: Ragnarok $8.3/$309

5. Murder on the Orient Express $5.9/$100

6. Daddy's Home 2 $5.8/$97.3

7. Just Getting Started $4.5

8. Three Billboards $3/$19.5

9. The Star $2.7/$34

10. Lady Bird $2.5/$21.3

 

I, Tonya $.3 (4)/$1.4 (20)

November Criminals $.15 (4)/$.7 (20)

 

15th - 17th December 2017

 

1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi $230

2. Ferdinand $19.5

3. Coco $9.8/$161

4. Wonder $8.3/$122.5

5. The Shape of Water $7.5 (if wide)

6. Justice League $5/$234

7. Thor: Ragnarok $3.7/$315

8. Murder on the Orient Express $3/$105

9. Daddy's Home 2 $2.8/$102

10. Just Getting Started $2.1/$8

 

22nd - 24th December 2017

 

1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi $115/$405

2. Pitch Perfect 3 $37.5

3. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle $27.5/$35

4. The Greatest Showman $23.5/$28.5

5. Downsizing $19.5

6. Ferdinand $11.7/$38

7. All The Money In The World $11

8. Coco $6.5/$171.5

9. Wonder $5.5/$131

10. The Shape of Water $5/$15

 

The Post $.5 (4)/$1.7 (20)

 

29th - 31st December 2017

 

1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi $70/$525

2. Pitch Perfect 3 $20/$78

3. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle $18/$64.5

4. The Greatest Showman $15/$53

5. Downsizing $13/$40.5

6. Ferdinand $8.5/$52.3

7. All The Money In The World $8/$24.2

8. Coco $5/$180

9. Wonder $4.3/$138.5

10. The Shape of Water $4/$22

 

Molly's Game $.2 (4)/$.7 (20)

Phantom Thread $.6 (4)/$2 (20)

Film Stars Don't Die In Liverpool $.1 (4)/$.3 (20)

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RamblinRed Box Office Gold

RamblinRed

Posted
Posted

JL and Wonder could be interesting to watch.

Wonder has been outselling JL on Movietickets for roughly the last 36 hours  - currently 9.4% to 8.8%.

If Wonder holds a little better than expected and JL drops a little more than expected there could be a real battle for second.

The Last Jedi has been the top movie seller since Monday,  at one time it was up to 30%, it's come down to 24.7% and Coco has gone up a little to 17.5%.

 

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mahnamahna Box Office Gold

mahnamahna

Posted
Posted
Spoiler

12/8-12/10

  1. Coco: $22.5 million ($139 million)
  2. Wonder: $13.5 million ($108 million) 
  3. Justice League: $10 million ($212 million) 
  4. Thor - Ragnorak: $7.5 million ($302 million) 
  5. Daddy's Home 2: $6.5 million ($92 million) 
  6. The Disaster Artist: $6 million ($7 million) 
  7. Murder on the Orient Express: $5.5 million ($94 million) 
  8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbings, Missouri: $4.5 million ($20 million) 
  9. Lady Bird: $4.25 million ($23 million) 
  10. The Star: $3.75 million ($32 million) 

12/15-12/17

  1. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $225.5 million
  2. Ferdinand: $13.5 million 
  3. Coco: $12 million ($155 million) 
  4. Wonder: $8 million ($119 million) 
  5. Daddy's Home 2: $3.5 million ($97 million) 
  6. The Disaster Artist: $3.25 million ($12 million) 
  7. Justice League: $2.75 million ($216 million) 
  8. Thor - Ragnorak: $2.5 million ($306 million) 
  9. Murder on the Orient Express: $2.5 million ($98 million) 
  10. Three Billboards Outside Ebbings, Missouri: $2.5 million ($24 million) 
  11. Lady Bird: $2.5 million ($26 million) 
  12. The Star: $2 million ($34 million) 

12/22-12/25

  1. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $114 million/$165 million ($504 million) 
  2. Pitch Perfect 3: $27 million/$39 million
  3. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $22.5 million/$37 million ($54 million) 
  4. The Greatest Showman: $15.5 million/$23 million ($35 million)
  5. Ferdinand: $14.5 million/$20 million ($48 million) 
  6. Coco: $13.5 million/$18.5 million ($187 million) 
  7. Wonder: $10.5 million/$14.5 million ($145 million) 
  8. The Disaster Artist: $6.25 million/$8.5 million ($22 million) 
  9. Downsizing: $6 million/$7.5 million
  10. Father Figures: $4.5 million/$5.5 million 
  11. Three Billboards Outside Ebbings, Missouri: $3.75 million/$5 million ($32 million) 
  12. Lady Bird: $3.5 million/$5 million ($34 million) 
  13. Daddy's Home 2: $3 million/$4.5 million ($105 million) 
  14. Murder on the Orient Express: $1.5 million/$2.25 million ($102 million) 
  15. Justice League: $1.5 million/$2.25 million ($220 million) 

12/29-1/1

  1. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $68 million/$104 million ($676 million) 
  2. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $26 million/$37.5 million ($118 million) 
  3. Pitch Perfect 3: $19 million/$26 million ($72 million) 
  4. The Greatest Showman: $16.5 million/$22.5 million ($73 million) 
  5. Ferdinand: $16 million/$20.5 million ($84 million) 
  6. Coco: $15.5 million/$20 million ($222 million) 
  7. Wonder: $13 million/$17 million ($175 million) 
  8. The Disaster Artist: $5.5 million/$7 million ($34 million) 
  9. Three Billboards Outside Ebbings, Missouri: $4.5 million/$6 million ($42 million) 
  10. Lady Bird: $4.5 million/$6 million ($45 million) 
  11. Downsizing: $4 million/$5 million ($16 million) 
  12. Father Figures: $3 million/$3.75 million ($12 million) 
  13. Daddy's Home 2: $1.5 million/$2 million ($108 million) 
  14. Murder on the Orient Express: $1 million/$1.5 million ($105 million) 
  15. Justice League: $1 million/$1.5 million ($223 million) 

 

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JB33 Blockbuster

JB33

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, mahnamahna said:
  Reveal hidden contents

 

Am I reading this right? You're predicting a $51M Christmas day for TLJ?

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the beast Sleeper Hit

the beast

Posted
Posted

12/8-12/10

  1. Coco: $20 million ($137.6 million)
  2. Wonder: $11.5 million ($105.5 million)
  3. Justice League: $9 million ($210.5 million)
  4. Thor: Ragnarok: $6.2 million ($300 million)
  5. Daddy's Home 2: $5.3 million ($90.5 million)

12/15-12/17

  1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi: $235 million
  2. Ferdinand: $23 million
  3. Coco: $12 million ($154 million)
  4. Wonder: $8.5 million ($118 million)
  5. Daddy's Home 2: $3.2 million ($96.2 million)

12/22-12/25

  1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi: $130 million/$175 million ($540 million)
  2. Jumanji: Welcome To The Jungle: $35 million/$50 million
  3. Ferdinand: $27.6 million/$34.6 million ($72.6 million)
  4. Pitch Perfect 3: $23 million/$38 million
  5. Coco: $10 million/$15 million ($184 million)

12/29-1/1

  1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi: $65 million/$90 million ($700 million)
  2. Jumanji: Welcome To The Jungle: $38 million/$49 million ($125 million)
  3. Ferdinand: $30 million/$35 million ($123.6 million
  4. Pitch Perfect 3: $20 million/$30 million ($78 million)
  5. Coco: $14.5 million/$20 million ($219 million)

 

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That One Girl Global Phenomenon

That One Girl

Posted
Posted
  1. Coco - 17.5M
  2. The Disaster Artist - 14.2M
  3. Wonder - 9.75M
  4. Justice League - 8.62M
  5. Thor: Ragnarok - 6.76M
  6. Lady Bird - 5.36M
  7. Daddy's Home 2 - 4.88M
  8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - 4.71M
  9. Murder on the Orient Express - 3.89M
  10. Just Getting Started - 3.1M
  11. The Star - 2.72M
  12. A Bad Moms Christmas - 2.67M
  13. Roman J. Israel, Esq. - 909k
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