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Weekend Prediction thread 3/29-3/31 Play the Derby

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(-28.4%) - Coco - 18.707 - 134.134 total

(-39.7%) - Justice League - 10.000 - 211.54 total

(-30%) - Wonder - 8.75 - 100.232 total

(-33.3%) - Thor - 6.44 - 300.386 total

(-28.3%) - DH2 - 5.38 - 90.000 total

(-35.5%) - Murder - 4.32 - 91.333 total

 

no change - Lady Bird - 4.54 - 23.81 total

no change - 3 Billboards - 4.53 - 20.000 total

 

(-30%) - The Star - 2.80 - 30.80 total

(-33.33%) - BM2 - 2.32 - 68.32 total

(-27.75%) - Roman - 1.445 - 11.70 total

(-31.87%) - XMAS - 587,955 - 4,000,000 total

(-33.333%) - Jigsaw - 146,667 - 37,820,497 total

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next two weekends

 

8th - 10th December 2017

 

1. Coco $17.8/$136

2. The Disaster Artist $12/$14

3. Wonder $7.8/$100

4. Justice League $7.5/$209

5. Thor: Ragnarok $6/$300.5

6. Daddy's Home 2 $4.5/$90

7. Murder on the Orient Express $3.7/$89.5

8. Lady Bird $3.3/$22.5 

9. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri $3/$17.5

10. A Bad Moms Christmas $2.5/$69

 

The Shape of Water $1.88/$2.1

Darkest Hour $550,000

I, Tonya $240,000

 

15th - 17th December 2017

 

1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi $220

2. Ferdinand $18.5

3. Coco $8.9/$150

4. The Disaster Artist $8.4/$27

5. Wonder $4.3/$107

6. Justice League $3/$214

7. Thor: Ragnarok $2.7/$305

8. Lady Bird $2.5/$26.5

9. Daddy's Home 2 $2.3/$93.5

10. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri $2.1/$21

 

Spoiler

and 8 more...

 

22nd - 24th December 2017

 

1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi $110/$385

2. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle $36/$50

3. Pitch Perfect 3 $35

4. Ferdinand $11.1/$36

5. The Greatest Showman $11/$14.5

6. Downsizing $10.5

7. All The Money In The World $7.5

8. The Disaster Artist $5.9/$36.5

9. Coco $5.5/$159

10. Father Figures $5.3

 

The Post $350,000 (4)/$1.2 (20)

 

29th - 31st December 2017

 

1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi $65/$513

2. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle $21.6/$87

3. Pitch Perfect 3 $20.3/$67.5

4. The Greatest Showman $7.7/$30

5. Ferdinand $7.2/$48

6. Downsizing $6.8/$21.3

7. All The Money In The World $4.5/$15

8. The Disaster Artist $4.1/$43.3

9. Coco $3.6/$165

10. Father Figures $2.9/$10.3

 

Molly's Game $180,000 (4)/$600,000 (20)

Phantom Thread $320,000 (4)/$1.2 (20)

Film Stars Don't Die In Liverpool $120,000 (4)/$400,000 (20)

 

5th - 7th January 2018

 

1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi $39/$575

2. Insidious: The Last Key $21.3

3. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle $13/$107

4. Pitch Perfect 3 $12.6/$87.5

5. The Greatest Showman $5.4/$39

6. Ferdinand $4.2/$56

7. Downsizing $4.1/$28

8. All The Money In The World $3/$20

9. The Disaster Artist $2.9/$48.3

10. Coco $2.5/$169.5

 

12th - 14th January 2018

 

1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi $20.3/$607.5

2. Paddington 2 $20

3. The Post $18.5

4. Proud Mary $16.5

5. The Commuter $12.1

6. Insidious: The Last Key $8.5/$35

7. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle $7.8/$119.5

8. Pitch Perfect 3 $7.4/$99.3

9. Condorito: La Pelicula $4

10. The Greatest Showman $3.5

 

19th - 21st January 2018

 

1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi $11.2/$625

2. The Post $11.1/$36

3. Paddington 2 $11/$37.5

4. 12 Strong $10.5

5. Proud Mary $8.3/$30

6. Den of Thieves $7

7. The Commuter $6/$22

8. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle $4.4/$126.5

9. Insidious: The Last Key $4.3/$42

10. Pitch Perfect 3 $4.1/$106

 

26th - 28th January 2018

 

1. Maze Runner: The Death Cure $25

2. The Post $7/$47

3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi $6.7/$635.5

4. Paddington 2 $6.1/$47.5

5. 12 Strong $5/$18.5

6. Proud Mary $4.9/$38

7. Den of Thieves $3/$12

8. The Commuter $2.8/$26.8

9. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle $2.5/$131

10. Pitch Perfect 3 $2.3/$110

 

2nd - 4th February 2018

 

1. 2018 Cloverfield Movie $23.5

2. Maze Runner: The Death Cure $10.3/$41

3. Winchester: The House that Ghosts Built $9.5

4. The Post $4.2/$54

5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi $4/$642

6. Paddington 2 $3.4/$53

7. Proud Mary $2.8/$43

8. 12 Strong $2.5/$16.3

9. Den of Thieves $1.5/$14.5

10. The Commuter $1.4/$29.5

 

9th - 11th February 2018

 

1. Fifty Shades Freed $37.5

2. Peter Rabbit $20

3. 2018 Cloverfield Movie $10.6/$40

4. Maze Runner: The Death Cure $5.2/$49.5

5. Winchester: The House that Ghosts Built $4.3/$16.5

6. The Post $2.4/$58

7. Star Wars: The Last Jedi $2.2/$646

8. Paddington 2 $2/$56.3

9. Proud Mary $1.8/$46

10. 12 Strong $1.3/$18.5

 

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The Disaster Artist: 6.66M
Just Getting Started: 5.55M - I think ca. 3M are too low. So the marketing is bad and I also guess reviews won't be good either because they're is still nothing on RT and ok, I'm not the target audience and probably almost nobody here is but imagine you would be and would see the trailer...it wasn't so bad IMO, maybe quite entertaining. Plus playing in 2.146 theaters I don't go under 5M.

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Coco is likely to do 18.5 min this weekend i think. it has outperformed Moana 6 of the last 8 days. it loses the olaf short which potentially allows a cinema 1 extra showing per day per screen. It is losing 239 theaters. Should drop 30-33% and i suspect Disney will under estimate Sunday again.

 

I'm thinking about 9.5 for JL. it is losing 392 theaters, the most of any movie in the Top 10.

 

Wonder expands by 70 theaters. if it holds well it could give JL a run for second.

Next week the blood bath begins with 7,700 theaters being taken by TLJ and Ferdinand. R1 and Collateral Beauty took 7,100 last year.

And then 5 days later Jumanji opens along with the Greatest Showman and 7 days later Pitch Perfect 3, Downsizing and Father Figures.

 

 

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On 11/30/2017 at 11:43 PM, Poe Blankeron said:

Wow, everything stayed. That's unusual. That's post-Thanksgiving though.

 

Still none lost.

 

Coco - 13 (down 1)

Daddy's Home 2 - 13 (no change)

Justice League - 13 (no change)

Thor: Ragnarok - 13 (down 1)

The Star - 12 (no change)

Murder on the Orient Express - 10 (no change)

Wonder - 10 (down 1)

A Bad Moms Christmas - 6 (no change)

Lady Bird - 5 (no change)
The Mountain Between Us - 3 (return)

Roman J. Israel, Esq. - 3 (no change)

Marshall - 2 (down 1)

Blade Runner 2049 - 1 (down 1)

 

I'll switch to my hometown theaters so we have a comparison point for the opening of Star Wars (since I'll switch to those theaters next week in general for the break.)

 

Coco - 28/3 (2D/IMAX) total 31

Justice League - 23/5/2 (2D/4K/IMAX) total 30
Just Getting Started - 17

Wonder - 16

A Bad Moms Christmas - 15

Daddy's Home 2 - 15

The Star - 15

Murder on the Orient Express - 14

Thor: Ragnarok - 13

Lady Bird - 11

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - 10

Roman J. Israel, Esq. - 9

The Man Who Invented Christmas - 5

The Mountain Between Us - 5
 

Edited by Poe Blankeron
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Spoiler

12/15-12/17

  1. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $224.5 million 
  2. Ferdinand: $14.5 million 
  3. Coco: $12 million ($152 million) 
  4. Wonder: $6.5 million ($110 million) 
  5. The Disaster Artist: $4 million ($14 million) 
  6. Justice League: $3.5 million ($218 million) 
  7. Daddy's Home 2: $3 million ($95 million) 
  8. Thor - Ragnorak: $3 million ($305 million) 
  9. Murder on the Orient Express: $2.5 million ($97 million) 
  10. Lady Bird: $2.25 million ($26 million) 

12/22-12/25

  1. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $112 million/$155 million ($491 million) 
  2. Pitch Perfect 3: $27.5 million/$39 million 
  3. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $25 million/$39 million ($55 million)
  4. The Greatest Showman: $17 million/$24.5 million ($36 million)
  5. Ferdinand: $16 million/$24 million ($54 million)
  6. Coco: $14 million/$19.5 million ($186 million) 
  7. Wonder: $8 million/$12 million ($130 million) 
  8. Downsizing: $6.5 million/$8.5 million 
  9. The Disaster Artist: $5.5 million/$7.25 million ($25 million) 
  10. Father Figures: $5 million/$6.5 million 
  11. The Shape of Water: $4.5 million/$5.75 million ($8 million) 
  12. Lady Bird: $3.5 million/$4.5 million ($33 million) 
  13. Three Billboards Outside Ebbings, Missouri: $2.75 million/$3.75 million ($28 million) 
  14. Daddy's Home 2: $2.5 million/$3.75 million ($101 million) 
  15. Justice League: $2 million/$3 million ($223 million) 

12/29-1/1

  1. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $65 million/$92 million ($653 million) 
  2. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $27 million/$38 million ($123 million) 
  3. Pitch Perfect 3: $20.5 million/$27 million ($86 million) 
  4. The Greatest Showman: $17.5 million/$23 million ($77 million) 
  5. Ferdinand: $16.5 million/$21 million ($92 million) 
  6. Coco: $15.5 million/$20 million ($221 million) 
  7. Wonder: $10 million/$13.5 million ($154 million) 
  8. The Disaster Artist: $6 million/$7.5 million ($38 million) 
  9. The Shape of Water: $5.25 million/$6.5 million ($19 million) 
  10. Downsizing: $4.5 million/$5.5 million ($18 million) 
  11. Lady Bird: $4 million/$5 million ($42 million) 
  12. Three Billboards Outside Ebbings, Missouri: $3.25 million/$4 million ($35 million) 
  13. Father Figures: $3 million/$3.5 million ($14 million) 
  14. Justice League: $1.5 million/$2.25 million ($227 million) 
  15. Thor - Ragnorak: $1.5 million/$2.25 million ($313 million) 

 

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19 minutes ago, mahnamahna said:
  Hide contents

12/15-12/17

  1. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $224.5 million 
  2. Ferdinand: $14.5 million 
  3. Coco: $12 million ($152 million) 
  4. Wonder: $6.5 million ($110 million) 
  5. The Disaster Artist: $4 million ($14 million) 
  6. Justice League: $3.5 million ($218 million) 
  7. Daddy's Home 2: $3 million ($95 million) 
  8. Thor - Ragnorak: $3 million ($305 million) 
  9. Murder on the Orient Express: $2.5 million ($97 million) 
  10. Lady Bird: $2.25 million ($26 million) 

12/22-12/25

  1. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $112 million/$155 million ($491 million) 
  2. Pitch Perfect 3: $27.5 million/$39 million 
  3. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $25 million/$39 million ($55 million)
  4. The Greatest Showman: $17 million/$24.5 million ($36 million)
  5. Ferdinand: $16 million/$24 million ($54 million)
  6. Coco: $14 million/$19.5 million ($186 million) 
  7. Wonder: $8 million/$12 million ($130 million) 
  8. Downsizing: $6.5 million/$8.5 million 
  9. The Disaster Artist: $5.5 million/$7.25 million ($25 million) 
  10. Father Figures: $5 million/$6.5 million 
  11. The Shape of Water: $4.5 million/$5.75 million ($8 million) 
  12. Lady Bird: $3.5 million/$4.5 million ($33 million) 
  13. Three Billboards Outside Ebbings, Missouri: $2.75 million/$3.75 million ($28 million) 
  14. Daddy's Home 2: $2.5 million/$3.75 million ($101 million) 
  15. Justice League: $2 million/$3 million ($223 million) 

12/29-1/1

  1. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $65 million/$92 million ($653 million) 
  2. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $27 million/$38 million ($123 million) 
  3. Pitch Perfect 3: $20.5 million/$27 million ($86 million) 
  4. The Greatest Showman: $17.5 million/$23 million ($77 million) 
  5. Ferdinand: $16.5 million/$21 million ($92 million) 
  6. Coco: $15.5 million/$20 million ($221 million) 
  7. Wonder: $10 million/$13.5 million ($154 million) 
  8. The Disaster Artist: $6 million/$7.5 million ($38 million) 
  9. The Shape of Water: $5.25 million/$6.5 million ($19 million) 
  10. Downsizing: $4.5 million/$5.5 million ($18 million) 
  11. Lady Bird: $4 million/$5 million ($42 million) 
  12. Three Billboards Outside Ebbings, Missouri: $3.25 million/$4 million ($35 million) 
  13. Father Figures: $3 million/$3.5 million ($14 million) 
  14. Justice League: $1.5 million/$2.25 million ($227 million) 
  15. Thor - Ragnorak: $1.5 million/$2.25 million ($313 million) 

 

What are you expecting for All the Money in the World?

 

It'd be awesome to see Coco and Wonder hold that well, but I feel they're going to lose too many theaters with none of the new releases (save for maybe Money) getting below 2,600 theaters.

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  1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi - 224.6M
  2. Ferdinand - 19.3M
  3. Coco - 12.1M
  4. Wonder - 5.58M
  5. The Disaster Artist - 4.83M
  6. Justice League - 4.03M
  7. Daddy's Home 2 - 3.06M
  8. Thor: Ragnarok - 2.89M
  9. Murder on the Orient Express - 2.86M
  10. Lady Bird - 2.8M
  11. The Star - 2.39M
  12. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - 1.74M
  13. A Bad Moms Christmas - 1.35M
  14. The Shape of Water - 1.29M
  15. Just Getting Started - 1.27M
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