Weekend Prediction thread 4/19-4/21 Play the Derby

[Krissykins]

2 minutes ago, Barnack said:

SPecially for WB right ? WW, Fury Road, It, I think they have a long list of well received release with an extreme late review embargo

Exactly! 

[TalismanRing]

1 hour ago, Barnack said:

SPecially for WB right ? WW, Fury Road, It, I think they have a long list of well received release with an extreme late review embargo

FR had late reviews b/c it was showing at Cannes and they had to agree not to release reviews before that. 

 

But lets look in terms of DC films -

 

WW was scheduled late like the 2 previous films but they moved it up to Mon after the great early twitter response. 

 

Before WW - BvS, SS had reviews released Thur and Tues.  After WW - JL released reviews on Wed while Shazam and AM had reviews released 10+ days before previews with  Joker much earlier than that with festival play.

 

So going back to the later review release pattern for DC films doesn't make much sense unless WB thinks they have a stinker.  Early twitter response doesn't seem to indicate that so not moving up the reviews like WW when it's need of more buzz is a puzzlement.

Edited February 4, 2020 by TalismanRing

[stripe]

Oscar nommed movies should have extra staying power. Add some recovery thanks to Sunday better holds. And...

 

Birds of Prey - 62M

BBFL - 11M

1917 - 7.5M

Dolittle - 6M

Jumanji - 4.5M

Gentlemen - 3.5M

Gretel and Hansel - 3M

Little Women - 2.5M

SW9 - 2M

Knives Out - 2M

 

Top 10 - 104M

[Barnack]

24 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Early twitter response doesn't seem to indicate that so not moving up the reviews like WW when it's need of more buzz is a puzzlement.

DId they did the same for IT (moved it a little bit after overwhelming first reaction ?), that one felt tracking must have been so good they decided to not do anything too.

 

I would imagined that once your movie play in Canne it would have been the norm to let critics, critic it, that it was even more special to have an embargo continue.

Edited February 4, 2020 by Barnack

[Viktor Vilotijevic]

My final projections. I hate when I'm off, like with "The Parasite".

 

FEBRUARY 7-9:

 

1. "Birds Of Prey" - 46.6

2. "Bad Boys For Life" - 9.4 / 164.1

3. "1917" - 6.8 / 129.9

4. "Dolittle" - 4.7 / 61.6

5. "Jumanji 2" - 4.2 / 297.0

6. "The Gentlemen" - 3.4 / 25.9

7. "Gretel & Hensel" - 2.8 / 11.0

8. "Little Women" - 2.2 / 102.2

9. "Knives Out" - 1.9 / 158.4

10. "Star Wars 9" - 1.8 / 510.1

11. "Parasite" - 1.7 / 35.6

12. "Jojo Rabbit" - 1.2 / 29.9

 

Spoiler

 

FEBRUARY 14-17:

 

1. "Sonic the Hedgehog" - 40.9 / 47.2

2. "Birds Of Prey" - 23.9 / 95.2

3. "Fantasy Island" - 13.8 / 16.1

4. "The Photograph" - 12.2 / 14.1

5. "1917" - 4.6 / 139.3

6. "Dolittle" - 2.6 / 66.2

7. "Jumanji 2" - 2.5 / 301.6

8. "The Gentlemen" - 2.1 / 29.8

9. "Little Women" - 1.7 / 105.5

10. "Gretel & Hensel" - 1.5 / 14.0

11. "Knives Out" - 1.4 / 160.9

12. "Parasite" - 1.3 / 38.1

 

 

Edited February 7, 2020 by Viktor Vilotijevic

[Impact]

Birds of prey total-over or under Jokers opening week?

[Viktor Vilotijevic]

Total definitely over "Joker's" opening. I don't think it will blow us away but 120-140 million total is realistic.

[Blankments]

On 1/31/2020 at 8:56 PM, Blankments said:

The Rescue and Detective Chinatown 3 were pulled before last weekend actually began. Joker, Clemency, Que Leones, The Song of Names and Ashfall are gone.

Street Dancer 3, Tanhaji: The Unsung Warrior and The Grudge are gone.

 

Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn) - 115/17/17 (2D/Dolby/IMAX) total 149 (debut)

Bad Boys For Life - 73 (down 10)

Gretel and Hansel - 59 (down 7)

1917 - 58 (down 1)

Dolittle - 48 (down 1)

The Gentlemen - 43 (down 5)

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker - 38 (no change)

Jumanji: The Next Level - 35 (down 3)

Knives Out - 32 (up 1)

The Rhythm Section - 32 (down 25)

The Turning - 24 (down 29)

Little Women - 19 (down 4)

Jojo Rabbit - 15 (down 4)

Parasite Subbed - 14 (down 3)

Just Mercy - 11 (down 11)

Like A Boss - 10 (down 4)

Spies in Disguise - 10 (no change)

Uncut Gems - 10 (down 6)

Malang Subbed - 9 (debut)

Ford v Ferrari - 8 (up 1)

Frozen II - 7 (down 4)

The Assistant - 6 (debut)

Bombshell - 6 (down 3)

Underwater - 5 (down 4)

Weathering With You Subbed - 5 (down 4)

The Man Standing Next Subbed - 4 (debut)

Jawaani Jaaneman Subbed - 3 (down 1)

2020 Oscar Animated Shorts - 2 (no change)

Created Equal: Clarence Thomas In His Own Words - 2 (no change)

2020 Oscar Live Action Shorts - 1 (down 1)

The Last Full Measure - 1 (down 4)

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - 1 (down 1)

[Impact]

Sonic will be the first film that came out this decade I plan on seeing, yes completely random I know.

[Krissykins]

1. Sonic $50m 4 day. Rotten reviews. 

[filmlover]

4-day:

 

Sonic the Hedgehog: $53M

Fantasy Island: $15M

The Photograph: $14M

Downhill: $3M

[Maxmoser3]

Sonic: $47 million/ $62 million

Fantasy Island: $14 million/ $18 million

Other two releases won’t do shit 

[FunkMiller]

I have a feeling Sonic will also underperform, compared to what the trades are saying. 
 

32 million OW.

[mahnamahna]

Spoiler

2/14-2/17

1. Sonic the Hedgehog: $45 million/$57 million 
2. Birds of Prey: $15 million/$19 million ($60 million) 
3. Fantasy Island: $14 million/$16.5 million 
4. 1917: $13.5 million/$16.5 million ($156 million) 
5. The Photograph: $12 million/$14 million 
6. Bad Boys for Life: $9 million/$10.5 million ($181 million) 
7. Jumanji - The Next Level: $3.5 million/$4.5 million ($304 million) 
8. Dolittle: $3 million/$4 million ($69 million) 
9. Little Women: $2.5 million/$3.25 million ($107 million) 
10. The Gentlemen: $2.5 million/$3.25 million ($31 million) 

 

[Impact]

On 2/5/2020 at 6:28 PM, Viktor Vilotijevic said:

Total definitely over "Joker's" opening. I don't think it will blow us away but 120-140 million total is realistic.

Yeah looks like one spoke too soon, I almost said under its opening weekend.

[Viktor Vilotijevic]

5 hours ago, Impact said:

Yeah looks like one spoke too soon, I almost said under its opening weekend.

I'm never responding to similar posts again, I think this is like 3rd film I jinxed by being "sure" 😛

[Viktor Vilotijevic]

FEBRUARY 14-17:

 

1. "Sonic the Hedgehog" - 47.2 / 56.9

2. "Birds Of Prey" - 17.1 / 62.1

3. "The Photograph" - 14.8 / 17.7

3. "Fantasy Island" - 10.4 / 12.2

5. "Bad Boys 3" - 9.6 / 181.4

6. "1917" - 7.4 / 145.2

7. "Jumanji 2" - 4.9 / 306.1

8. "Dolittle" - 4.0 / 70.1

9. "Parasite" - 3.6 / 41.9

10. "The Gentlemen" - 3.0 / 32.1

11. "Downhill" - 2.4 / 2.9

12. "Little Women" - 1.9 / 106.0

 

 

Edited February 14, 2020 by Viktor Vilotijevic

[Black Panther]

Sonic The Hedgehog 50/61

Fantasy Island 15/17.5

The Photograph 13/15

Edited February 11, 2020 by Black Panther

[Blankments]

On 2/5/2020 at 10:34 PM, Blankments said:

Street Dancer 3, Tanhaji: The Unsung Warrior and The Grudge are gone.

The Rhythm Section, Jawaani Jaaneman, 2020 Oscar Animated Shorts, Created Equal: Clarence Thomas In His Own Words, 2020 Oscar Live Action Shorts, The Last Full Measure and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood are gone.

 

Sonic the Hedgehog - 116/19 (2D/Dolby) total 135 (debut)

Harley Quinn: Birds of Prey - 81/17 (2D/IMAX) total 98 (down 51)

The Photograph - 70 (debut)

Fantasy Island - 64 (debut)

1917 - 53 (down 5)

Bad Boys For Life - 51 (down 22)

Parasite Subbed - 37 (up 23)

Dolittle - 34 (down 14)

Knives Out - 27 (down 5)

Downhill - 29 (debut)

Jumanji: The Next Level - 32 (down 3)

The Gentlemen - 24 (down 19)

Gretel and Hansel - 15 (down 44)

Just Mercy - 14 (up 3)

Little Women - 14 (down 5)

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker - 13 (down 25)

Jojo Rabbit - 11 (down 4)

Frozen II - 8 (up 1)

Love Aaj Kal Subbed - 8 (debut)

Spies in Disguise - 8 (down 2)

The Turning - 7 (down 17)

The Assistant - 5 (down 1)

The Traitor - 5 (debut)

Uncut Gems - 5 (down 5)

Like A Boss - 4 (down 6)

The Man Standing Next Subbed - 4 (no change)

Valentine's Day - 3 (return)

Malang Subbed - 2 (down 7)

Underwater - 2 (down 3)

Weathering With You Subbed - 2 (down 3)

Bombshell - 1 (down 5)

Ford v Ferrari - 1 (down 7)

[mahnamahna]

Spoiler

2/21-2/23

1. Sonic the Hedgehog: $35 million ($118 million) 
2. The Call of the Wild: $14.5 million
3. Birds of Prey: $10 million ($76 million) 
4. The Photograph: $7 million ($27 million) 
5. Bad Boys for Life: $6.5 million ($189 million)
6. 1917: $5 million ($151 million) 
7. Brahm - The Boy II: $5 million 
8. Parasite: $4 million ($49 million) 
9. Fantasy Island: $4 million ($20 million) 
10. Jumanji - The Next Level: $3 million ($310 million) 

2/28-3/1

1. The Invisible Man: $33 million 
2. Sonic the Hedgehog: $25 million ($151 million) 
3. The Call of the Wild: $10.5 million ($28 million) 
4. Birds of Prey: $7 million ($86 million) 
5. Bad Boys for Life: $5 million ($196 million) 
6. The Photograph: $4 million ($33 million) 
7. 1917: $3.5 million ($156 million) 
8. Parasite: $2.5 million ($53 million) 
9. Jumanji - The Next Level: $2 million ($313 million) 
10. Brahm - The Boy II: $2 million ($8 million) 

3/6-3/8

1. Onward: $55 million 
2. The Invisible Man: $14.5 million ($55 million) 
3. Sonic the Hedgehog: $13 million ($170 million) 
4. The Way Back: $12 million 
5. The Call of the Wild: $6 million ($36 million) 
6. Birds of Prey: $4 million ($92 million)
7. Bad Boys for Life: $3 million ($200 million) 
8. 1917: $2.5 million ($160 million) 
9. The Photograph: $2 million ($36 million) 
10. Parasite: $1.5 million ($55 million) 

3/13-3/15

1. Onward: $34.5 million ($100 million) 
2. The Hunt: $16 million 
3. I Still Believe: $15 million
4. Bloodshot: $14.5 million 
5. My Spy:: $12 million 
6. Sonic the Hedgehog: $8 million ($182 million) 
7. The Way Back: $7 million ($23 million) 
8. The Invisible Man: $5.5 million ($64 million) 
9. The Call of the Wild: $4 million ($41 million) 
10. Birds of Prey: $2.5 million ($96 million) 

3/20-3/22

1. A Quiet Place Part II: $83 million 
2. Onward: $24 million ($134 million) 
3. I Still Believe: $11 million ($33 million) 
4. My Spy: $8 million ($25 million) 
5. Sonic the Hedgehog: $6 million ($192 million) 
6. The Hunt: $5 million ($25 million) 
7. Bloodshot: $5 million ($22 million) 
8. The Way Back: $4 million ($29 million) 
9. The Call of the Wild: $3 million ($46 million) 
10. The Invisible Man: $2 million ($68 million) 

3/27-3/29

1. Mulan: $127 million 
2. A Quiet Place Part II: $32 million ($138 million)
3. Onward: $14.5 million ($158 million) 
4. I Still Believe: $6.5 million ($44 million)
5. My Spy: $4.5 million ($32 million) 
6. Sonic the Hedgehog: $3 million ($197 million) 
7. The Hunt: $2.5 million ($30 million) 
8. Bloodshot: $2.5 million ($26 million) 
9. The Way Back: $2 million ($32 million) 
10. The Call of the Wild: $1.5 million ($49 million) 

4/3-4/5

1. Mulan: $66 million ($230 million) 
2. The Lovebirds: $21 million
3. Peter Rabbit - The Runaway: $17 million
4. The New Mutants: $16.5 million 
5. A Quiet Place Part II: $14 million ($161 million) 
6. Onward: $8 million ($170 million) 
7. I Still Believe: $5 million ($52 million) 
8. Saint Maud: $3 million 
9. My Spy: $2 million ($35 million) 
10. The Hunt: $1.5 million ($32 million) 

4/10-4/12

1. No Time to Die: $110 million 
2. Mulan: $43 million ($295 million) 
3. Peter Rabbit - The Runaway: $19 million ($42 million) 
4. The Lovebirds: $14 million ($43 million) 
5. A Quiet  Place Part  II: $8.5 million ($174 million) 
6. Onward: $7 million ($180 million) 
7. The New Mutants: $6.5 million ($27 million) 
8. I Still Believe: $5.5 million ($60 million) 
9. Saint Maud: $1.5 million ($5 million) 
10. My Spy: $1.5 million ($37 million) 

4/17-4/19

1. Trolls World Tour: $42 million 
2. No Time to Die: $41.5 million ($172 million) 
3. Mulan: $24 million ($327 million) 
4. The Lovebirds: $10 million ($58 million)
5. Monster Problems: $8 million
6. A Quiet Place Part II: $4.5 million ($181 million)
7. Onward: $3 million ($184 million) 
8. Antlers: $3 million 
9. I Still Believe: $2.5 million ($64 million)
10. The New Mutants: $2.5 million ($31 million) 

4/24-4/26

1. Trolls World Tour: $26 million ($74 million) 
2. No Time to Die: $25.5 million ($210 million) 
3. Mulan: $17 million ($350 million) 
4. Bad Trip: $8.5 million 
5. The Lovebirds: $8 million ($70 million) 
6. Antebellum: $7 million 
7. Monster Problems: $3 million ($12 million)
8. A Quiet Place  Part  II: $2.5 million ($185 million) 
9. Onward: $2 million ($186 million) 
10. I Still Believe: $1.5 million ($66 million) 

5/1-5/3

1. Black Widow: $157 million 
2. Trolls World Tour: $15 million ($93 million) 
3. No Time to Die: $12 million ($230 million) 
4. Mulan: $11 million ($365 million) 
5. The Lovebirds: $5.5 million ($78 million) 
6. Bad Trip: $4.5 million ($15 million) 
7. Antebellum: $3 million ($12 million)
8. Monster Problems: $2 million ($14 million)
9. Onward: $1.5 million ($188 million)
10. A Quiet Place Part II: $1.5 million ($187 million) 

5/8-5/10

1. Black Widow: $60 million ($249 million) 
2. Legally Blonde 3: $36.5 million 
3. Greyhound: $14 million 
4. Run: $11.5 million 
5. Trolls World Tour: $10 million ($106 million) 
6. Mulan: $9.5 million ($377 million) 
7. No Time to Die: $7 million ($241 million) 
8. Covers: $5.5 million 
9. The Lovebirds: $3.5 million ($83 million) 
10. Bad Trip: $3 million ($20 million) 

5/15-5/17

1. Scoob!: $86 million 
2. Black Widow: $31.5 million ($296 million) 
3. Spiral: $27 million 
4. Legally Blonde 3: $19 million ($65 million) 
5. The Woman in the Window: $16.5 million 
6. Greyhound: $8 million ($26 million) 
7. Mulan: $5 million ($384 million) 
8. Run: $4 million ($17 million) 
9. Trolls World Tour: $4 million ($111 million) 
10. No Time to Die: $3.5 million ($246 million) 

5/22-5/24

1. Fast 9: $88 million/$109.5 mlilion 
2. Scoob!: $47 million/$60 million ($159 million) 
3. The SpongeBob Movie - Sponge on the Run: $28 million/$35 million 
4. Black Widow: $20 million/$25 million ($331 million) 
5. Spiral: $16 million/$19 million ($54 million) 
6. Legally Blonde 3: $12.5 million/$15.5 million ($87 million) 
7. The Woman in the Window: $9 million/$11 million ($31 million) 
8. Greyhound: $5 million/$6.25 million ($34 million) 
9. Mulan: $3 million/$4 million ($389 million) 
10. Run: $2.5 million/$3.25 million ($22 million) 

5/29-5/31

1. Fast 9: $33 million ($153 million) 
2. Scoob!: $28.5 million ($195 million) 
3. The SpongeBob Movie - Sponge on the Run: $14.5 million ($54 million) 
4. Artemis Fowl: $12 million 
5. Black Widow: $12 million ($347 million) 
6. Spiral: $8 million ($65 million) 
7. Legally Blonde 3: $6.5 million ($96 million) 
8. Irresistible:  $5 million 
9. The Woman in the Window: $4.5 million ($37 million) 
10. Greyhound: $3 million ($38 million) 

6/5-6/7

1. Wonder Woman 1984: $182 million 
2. Scoob!: $17 million ($223 million) 
3. Fast  9: $13 million ($176 million) 
4. The SpongeBob Movie - Sponge on the Run: $7 million ($65 million) 
5. Artemis Fowl: $5 million ($20 million) 
6. Black Widow: $4 million ($355 million) 
7. Spiral: $4 million ($72 million) 
8. Legally Blonde 3: $3 million ($102 million) 
9. Irresistible: $2 million ($8 million) 
10. The Woman in the Window: $2 million ($40 million) 

6/12-6/14

1. Wonder Woman 1984: $71.5 million ($300 million) 
2. Candyman: $22 million 
3. Scoob!: $13 million ($244 million) 
4. Fast 9: $9 million ($191 million) 
5. The SpongeBob Movie - Sponge on the Run: $6 million ($75 million) 
6. Artemis Fowl: $3.5 million ($26 million) 
7. Black Widow: $3 million ($360 million) 
8. Spiral: $2 million ($75 million) 
9. Legally Blonde 3: $2 million ($105 million) 
10. Irresistible: $1.5 million ($10 million) 

6/19-6/21

1. Soul: $83.5 million 
2. Wonder Woman 1984: $46 million ($382 million) 
3. Judd Apatow/Pete Davison Comedy: $15 million 
4. Scoob!: $9 million ($261 million) 
5. Candyman: $8 million ($36 million) 
6. Fast 9: $6.5 million ($202 million) 
7. The SpongeBob Movie - Sponge on the Run: $3.5 million ($81 million) 
8. Black Widow: $2 million ($364 million) 
9. Artemis Fowl: $2 million ($29 million) 
10. Spiral: $1.25 million ($77 million) 

6/26-6/28

1. Top Gun - Maverick: $52 million 
2. Soul: $50 million ($181 million) 
3. Into the Heights: $37 million 
4. Wonder Woman 1984: $24.5 million ($431 million) 
5. Judd Apatow/Pete Davison Comedy: $8 million ($30 million) 
6. Scoob!: $6 million ($273 million) 
7. Candyman: $4 million ($44 million) 
8. Fast 9: $2.5 million ($207 million) 
9. The SpongeBob Movie - Sponge on the Run: $2 million ($85 million) 
10. Artemis Fowl: $1.5 million ($32 million) 

7/3-7/5

1. Minions - The Rise of Gru: $53 million 
2. Free Guy: $40.5 million 
3. Soul: $26 million ($237 million) 
4. Top Gun - Maverick: $22 million ($98 million) 
5. Into the Heights: $21 million ($78 million) 
6. Wonder Woman 1984: $14 million ($460 million) 
7. Judd Apatow/Pete Davison Comedy: $3.5 million ($38 million) 
8. Scoob!: $2 million ($277 million) 
9. Candyman: $2 million ($48 million) 
10. Fast 9: $1.5 million ($210 million) 

7/10-7/12

1. Ghostbusters - Afterlife: $47 million 
2. Minions - The Rise of Gru: $32 million ($114 million) 
3. Free Guy: $24 million ($86 million) 
4. Purge 5: $16 million 
5. Soul: $15.5 million ($267 million) 
6. Into the Heights: $12 million ($101 million) 
7. Top Gun - Maverick: $10.5 million ($119 million) 
8. Wonder Woman 1984: $8 million ($476 million) 
9. Judd Apatow/Pete Davison Comedy: $2 million ($42 million)
10. Scoob!: $1.5 million ($280 million) 

7/17-7/19

1. Tenet: $54 million
2. Ghostbusters - Afterlife: $20.5 million ($86 million) 
3. Minions - The Rise of Gru: $18 million ($148 million) 
4. Bob's Burgers - The Movie: $17 million 
5. Free Guy: $9.5 million ($106 million) 
6. Soul: $9 million ($284 million) 
7. Into the Heights: $8 million ($116 million) 
8. Purge 5: $6 million ($28 million) 
9. Wonder Woman 1984: $4.5 million ($485 million) 
10. Top Gun - Maverick: $4 million ($127 million) 

7/24-7/26

1. Jungle Cruise: $77.5 million 
2. Tenet: $33 million ($118 million) 
3. Ghostbusters - Afterlife: $12 million ($109 million) 
4. Minions - The Rise of Gru: $8 million ($163 million) 
5. Bob's Burgers - The Movie: $6 million ($29 million) 
6. Free Guy: $6 million ($117 million) 
7. Into the Heights: $5.5 million ($126 million) 
8. Soul: $5 million ($294 million) 
9. Wonder Woman 1984: $3 million ($491 million) 
10. Purge 5: $3 million ($34 million) 

7/31-8/2

1. Morbius: $57 million 
2. Jungle Cruise: $48 million ($171 million) 
3. Tenet: $22 million ($161 million) 
4. Barb and Star Go to Vista Del Mar: $12 million 
5. Ghostbusters - Afterlife: $8 million ($124 million) 
6. Minions - The Rise of Gru: $5.5 million ($173 million) 
7. Free Guy: $4 million ($124 million) 
8. Into the Heights: $4 million ($133 million) 
9. Soul: $4 million ($302 million) 
10. Bob's Burgers - The Movie: $2.75 million ($34 million)