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Weekend Prediction thread 3/29-3/31 Play the Derby

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6 hours ago, commendable said:

BP will hold extremely well at 70 mil

So will annihilation. probably 20% drop. college students who want to see this film are done with exams

 

Can't see Annihilation dropping only 20%. GA WOM is mixed. The same as Drive or Mother! 

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Red Sparrow: 21.5M - the trailers did not fully convince me but I still think that the film looks interesting and with J. Lawrence as the lead it should get a few millions more than Atomic Blonde
Death Wish: 16M - depends on the reviews if I will revise it up- or downwards -> Edit: reviews won`t be kind but too late and it seems that the buzz is good enough for high teens so I lift my prediction to 18M.

Edited by el sid
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Removing 25.2m previews and an inflated 1st Sunday (est 7.3mil,  20% drop) you'll get a real weekend of $169.5mil

BP 2nd wknd drop   = 111.66/169.5 = -34.12% drop

 

Removing same preview #s and any inflated Sundays from WW, Avengers, JW

 

Movie        2nd Wknd Drop    3rd Wknd Drop         Coef       BP Third Wknd Drop

WW            36.5%                          34%            0.931           -31.76%

Avengers      45.4%                          46%           1.013            -34.563%

JW             48.3%                          48.8%           1.010           -34.46%

 

Prediction based on average of all three comps   =  74.14 Million 

Could be wrong, but why not? 

 

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On 2/24/2018 at 3:44 PM, Blank Panther said:

Den of Thieves and Forever My Girl are gone.

The 15:17 to Paris and Early Man are gone.

 

Black Panther - 19/3 (2D/3D) total 22 (down 4)

Game Night - 13 (down 4)

Peter Rabbit - 13 (down 2)

Death Wish - 11 (debut)

Fifty Shades Freed - 10 (down 4)

Red Sparrow - 10 (debut)

Annihilation - 5 (no change)

Every Day - 5 (no change)

The Greatest Showman - 3 (down 2)

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle - 3 (down 2)

Get Out - 2 (return)

Darkest Hour - 2 (no change)

I, Tonya - 2 (up 1)

Samson - 2 (down 1)

Winchester - 1 (down 2)

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Was looking at the number of showings the theater I work at has for Black Panther this weekend to know how bad it's going to be and we have even more showings for BP this weekend than last weekend. Granted we sold out of every showing from 5PM Friday to 9:50 PM Sunday so it's not that surprising. 

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6 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

Was looking at the number of showings the theater I work at has for Black Panther this weekend to know how bad it's going to be and we have even more showings for BP this weekend than last weekend. Granted we sold out of every showing from 5PM Friday to 9:50 PM Sunday so it's not that surprising. 

Where is your theater if you don’t mind me asking?

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I actually haven't seen much for RPO-well just a trailer at Star Wars and part of it at Black Panther (walked in 15 minutes after the showing for BP due to traffic, at least for once the theater that shows way to many trailers was actually helpful as I didn't miss the opening, usually I hate how many trailers that theater has)

I'm not even sure what RPO is about.

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Spoiler

3/9-3/11

  1. Black Panther: $42 million ($565 million) 
  2. A Wrinkle in Time: $40.5 million
  3. Red Sparrow: $7.5 million ($35 million) 
  4. Game Night: $6.5 million ($44 million) 
  5. Death Wish: $6 million ($22 million)
  6. Gringo: $5 million 
  7. Peter Rabbit: $5 million ($90 million) 
  8. The Hurricane Heist: $3.5 million
  9. Strangers - Prey at Night: $3 million 
  10. Annihilation: $3 million ($25 million) 
  11. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $2.5 million ($396 million) 
  12. The Greatest Showman: $1.5 million ($166 million)
  13. Fifty Shades Freed: $1.5 million ($98 million) 

3/16-3/18

  1. Black Panther: $30 million ($611 million)
  2. A Wrinkle in Time: $24 million ($74 million) 
  3. Love, Simon: $22.5 million
  4. Tomb Raider: $21 million 
  5. Death Wish: $5.5 million ($47 million)
  6. Red Sparrow: $4 million ($42 million)
  7. Peter Rabbit: $4 million ($94 million)
  8. Game Night: $3.5 million ($50 million)
  9. Gringo: $2.5 million ($9 million)
  10. I Can Only Imagine: $2 million 

3/23-3/25

  1. Paul, Apostle of Christ: $22 million
  2. Black Panther: $19.5 million ($643 million) 
  3. Pacific Rim - Uprising: $17.5 million
  4. Love, Simon: $15 million ($46 million) 
  5. Sherlock Gnomes: $13.5 million 
  6. A Wrinkle in Time: $13 million ($96 million) 
  7. Tomb Raider: $8 million ($35 million) 
  8. Midnight Sun: $3.5 million 
  9. Unsane: $3 million 
  10. Death Wish: $2.5 million ($51 million) 

3/30-4/1

  1. Ready Player One: $48 million ($60 million) 
  2. Paul, Apostle of Christ: $20.5 million ($63 million) 
  3. Acrimony: $18 million
  4. Black Panther: $11 million ($664 million) 
  5. Love, Simon: $9 million ($62 million) 
  6. Sherlock Gnomes: $8 million ($29 million) 
  7. A Wrinkle in Time: $7 million ($109 million) 
  8. God's Not Dead - A Light in Darkness: $4.5 million
  9. Tomb Raider: $4 million ($42 million) 
  10. Peter Rabbit: $2 million ($101 million) 

4/6-4/8

  1. A Quiet Place: $30.5 million
  2. Blockers: $27 million 
  3. Ready Player One: $22.5 million ($95 million) 
  4. Black Panther: $8.5 million ($678 million) 
  5. Paul, Apostle of Christ: $8 million ($75 million) 
  6. Acrimony: $6.5 million ($28 million) 
  7. Love, Simon: $5.5 million ($71 million) 
  8. Sherlock Gnomes: $5 million ($37 million) 
  9. A Wrinkle in Time: $4.5 million ($116 million) 
  10. Chappadaquick: $3 million 

4/13-4/15

  1. A Quiet Place: $21 million ($62 million) 
  2. Blockers: $18.5 million ($54 million) 
  3. Truth or Dare: $13 million
  4. Ready Player One: $12.5 million ($114 million) 
  5. Black Panther: $7 million ($688 million) 
  6. Overboard: $6 million
  7. Sherlock Gnomes: $3.5 million ($41 million) 
  8. A Wrinkle in Time: $3 million ($120 million) 
  9. Love, Simon: $3 million ($76 million) 
  10. Paul, Apostle of Christ: $3 million ($79 million) 

4/20-4/22

  1. Rampage: $57 million
  2. A Quiet Place: $13.5 million ($83 million) 
  3. Blockers: $10 million ($69 million) 
  4. Tully: $7 million
  5. Ready Player One: $6.5 million ($125 million) 
  6. Super Troopers 2: $5 million 
  7. Black Panther: $4.5 million ($695 million) 
  8. Overboard: $3.5 million ($11 million) 
  9. Sherlock Gnomes: $2.5 million ($44 million) 
  10. A Wrinkle in Time: $2 million ($122 million) 

4/27-4/29

  1. Avengers - Infinity War: $227 million
  2. Rampage: $17 million ($87 million) 
  3. A Quiet Place: $6.5 million ($93 million) 
  4. Traffik: $5.5 million
  5. Blockers: $5 million ($77 million) 
  6. Tully: $3.5 million ($12 million) 
  7. Black Panther: $3 million ($700 million) 
  8. Bad Samaritan: $2.5 million 
  9. Ready Player One: $2 million ($128 million) 
  10. Overboard: $2 million ($14 million) 

 

 

Edited by mahnamahna
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A Wrinkle in Time- $40.3M/$142.5M

Strangers: Prey at Night- $7.1M/$15.6M

The Hurricane Heist- $6.9M/$15.2M

Gringo- $4.5M/$11.9M

 

Tomb Raider- $27.0M/$71.7M

Love, Simon- $15.7M/$47.1M

I Can Only Imagine- $1.3M/$3.0M

 

Pacific Rim Uprising- $32.6M/$80.1M

Paul, Apostle of Christ- $14.4M/$45.4M

Sherlock Gnomes- $12.5M/$38.0M

Midnight Sun- $4.2M/$11.1M

Unsane- $3.9M/$8.5M

 

Ready Player One- $51.3M/$148.6M

Acrimony- $20.4M/$48.0M

God's Not Dead: A Light in Darkness- $5.6M/$16.8M

 

 

 

 

 

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