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Weekend Prediction thread 4/19-4/21 Play the Derby

By Impact, in Box Office Derby

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That One Girl Global Phenomenon

That One Girl

Posted
Posted
  1. A Quiet Place - $23.9M
  2. Rampage - $18.9M
  3. I Feel Pretty - $14.1M
  4. Super Troopers 2 - $9.4M
  5. Blumhouse's Truth or Dare - $6.91M
  6. Ready Player One - $6.45M
  7. Blockers - $5.6M
  8. Isle of Dogs - $4.16M
  9. Black Panther - $4.04M
  10. I Can Only Imagine - $2.53M
  11. Traffik - $2.5M
  12. Tyler Perry's Acrimony - $1.68M
  13. Sherlock Gnomes - $1.44M
  14. Chappaquiddick - $1.38M
  15. Beirut - $1.02M
  16. The Miracle Season - $819k
  17. A Wrinkle in Time - $759k
  18. Love, Simon - $594k
  19. Sgt. Stubby: An American Hero - $585k
  20. Pacific Rim Uprising - $523k
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dxmatrixdt Summer Tentpole

dxmatrixdt

Posted
Posted
Spoiler

got predicts for movies out till after Thursday.

took Sat/Sat PTA %, (from this Sat and last Sat) and applied it to last Mon + Tues PTA for each film.  

configured Weds + Thurs to get the totals.  

 

Ramp -  11.368 - 47.121

AQP - 11.789 - 111.795

ToD - 5.204 - 23.872

RP1 - 3.192 - 118.114

Blockers - 3.428 - 40.832

BP - 1.779 - 676.012

Dogs - 1.624 - 20.550

Imagine - 1.305 - 76.598

Chappa - 1.171 - 12.212

Acrimony - 1.195 - 39.023

Sherlock - 0.461 - 37.689

Miracle - 0.504 - 7.546

Beirut - 0.640 - 2.747

Time - 0.311 - 92.787

Sergeant - 0.248 - 1.548

Uprising - 0.406 - 58.012

Love - 0.266 - 39.595

Paul - 0.253 - 16.648

Tomb - 0.165 - 56.392

GND3 - 0.043 - 5.480

Peter - 0.083 - 113.952

Game - 0.108 - 67.995

Jumanji - 0.051 - 404.002

Showman - 0.065 - 173.362

Midnight - 0.026 - 9.433

Sparrow - 0.049 - 46.564

Annihil - 0.053 - 32.738

The Ultimate Predictions

-42% - Rampage - 20.63 - 67.75

-42% - A Quiet Place - 19.22 - 131.02

- new - I Feel Pretty - 19.00 - 19.00

- new - Super Troopers - 9.90 - 9.90

-33% - Ready Player One - 7.72 - 125.83

- 59% - Truth or Dare - 7.58 - 31.45

-33% - Blockers - 7.17 - 48.00

-33% - Black Panther - 3.86 - 679.87

-36% - Isle of Dogs - 3.49 - 24.04

-32% - Imagine - 2.83 - 79.43

-51% - Acrimony - 1.78 - 40.80

-45% - Chappaquidd - 1.68 - 13.89

-45% - Sherlock - 1.31 - 39.00

-54% - Miracle - 1.01 - 8.56

-44% - Beirut - 0.97 - 3.72

-46% - Wrinkle - 0.75 - 93.54

-50% - Rim - 0.73 - 58.74

-48% - Sergeant - 0.68 - 2.23

-50% - Love - 0.53 - 40.13

 

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WrathOfHan Cinematic Universe

WrathOfHan

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Thematrixfilm said:
  Reveal hidden contents

The Ultimate Predictions

-42% - Rampage - 20.63 - 67.75

-42% - A Quiet Place - 19.22 - 131.02

- new - I Feel Pretty - 19.00 - 19.00

- new - Super Troopers - 9.90 - 9.90

-33% - Ready Player One - 7.72 - 125.83

- 59% - Truth or Dare - 7.58 - 31.45

-33% - Blockers - 7.17 - 48.00

-33% - Black Panther - 3.86 - 679.87

-36% - Isle of Dogs - 3.49 - 24.04

-32% - Imagine - 2.83 - 79.43

-51% - Acrimony - 1.78 - 40.80

-45% - Chappaquidd - 1.68 - 13.89

-45% - Sherlock - 1.31 - 39.00

-54% - Miracle - 1.01 - 8.56

-44% - Beirut - 0.97 - 3.72

-46% - Wrinkle - 0.75 - 93.54

-50% - Rim - 0.73 - 58.74

-48% - Sergeant - 0.68 - 2.23

-50% - Love - 0.53 - 40.13

 

RPO and Blockers are not dropping 33% :lol: 

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a2k Global Phenomenon

a2k

Posted
Posted

Rampage showed very good holds on Sat and Sun. Hoping for a sub-50% 2nd weekend drop. RPO dropped only 41% in the 2nd weekend but it had burnt off demand on Thu.

So 45-50% drop for Rampage would be very good and gives an 18-20m weekend, not far from TR's 23.6m ow.

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BenedictL11 Box Office Gold

BenedictL11

Posted
Posted
17 hours ago, Thematrixfilm said:
  Reveal hidden contents

The Ultimate Predictions

-42% - Rampage - 20.63 - 67.75

-42% - A Quiet Place - 19.22 - 131.02

- new - I Feel Pretty - 19.00 - 19.00

- new - Super Troopers - 9.90 - 9.90

-33% - Ready Player One - 7.72 - 125.83

- 59% - Truth or Dare - 7.58 - 31.45

-33% - Blockers - 7.17 - 48.00

-33% - Black Panther - 3.86 - 679.87

-36% - Isle of Dogs - 3.49 - 24.04

-32% - Imagine - 2.83 - 79.43

-51% - Acrimony - 1.78 - 40.80

-45% - Chappaquidd - 1.68 - 13.89

-45% - Sherlock - 1.31 - 39.00

-54% - Miracle - 1.01 - 8.56

-44% - Beirut - 0.97 - 3.72

-46% - Wrinkle - 0.75 - 93.54

-50% - Rim - 0.73 - 58.74

-48% - Sergeant - 0.68 - 2.23

-50% - Love - 0.53 - 40.13

 

I seriously doubt AQP will drop that high with the WOM it's been getting. It ain't dropping lower than Blockers either. What made you change your predict for AQP from $22 to $19M? Please explain.

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dxmatrixdt Summer Tentpole

dxmatrixdt

Posted
Posted
55 minutes ago, BenedictL11 said:

I seriously doubt AQP will drop that high with the WOM it's been getting. It ain't dropping lower than Blockers either. What made you change your predict for AQP from $22 to $19M? Please explain.

not sure.

AQP averaged $3,760 on Saturday, and $5,441 the Saturday before. 

That is a .691 ratio. 

Applying this same ratio (.691), makes about $2,600 and assuming it retains at least 3,589 locations, would make roughly 22M weekend #3.

I might have went around 10% lower so the averages would be closer to Rampage weekend #2

 

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WrathOfHan Cinematic Universe

WrathOfHan

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Thematrixfilm said:

not sure.

AQP averaged $3,760 on Saturday, and $5,441 the Saturday before. 

That is a .691 ratio. 

Applying this same ratio (.691), makes about $2,600 and assuming it retains at least 3,589 locations, would make roughly 22M weekend #3.

I might have went around 10% lower so the averages would be closer to Rampage weekend #2

 

If it follows last week with a 20% lower Friday jump:

 

3.3M

2.3M

2.3M

 

6.2M

8M

5.3M

19.5M Weekend

 

This isn't accounting for the inevitable Saturday increase in the 30s or higher. There's almost no way it's going below 20M this weekend.

 

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dxmatrixdt Summer Tentpole

dxmatrixdt

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

If it follows last week with a 20% lower Friday jump:

 

3.3M

2.3M

2.3M

 

6.2M

8M

5.3M

19.5M Weekend

 

This isn't accounting for the inevitable Saturday increase in the 30s or higher. There's almost no way it's going below 20M this weekend.

 

2.6 - Monday

3.4 - Tuesday

2.6 - Wednesday

2.6 - Thursday

 

5.5 - Friday

8.25 - Saturday (-39%) 

5.5 - Sunday

 

if the second weekend was frontloaded

 

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BenedictL11 Box Office Gold

BenedictL11

Posted
Posted (edited)
34 minutes ago, Thematrixfilm said:

not sure.

AQP averaged $3,760 on Saturday, and $5,441 the Saturday before. 

That is a .691 ratio. 

Applying this same ratio (.691), makes about $2,600 and assuming it retains at least 3,589 locations, would make roughly 22M weekend #3.

I might have went around 10% lower so the averages would be closer to Rampage weekend #2

why would blockers drop lower than aqp when it has more comedy ocompetition with I feel pretty and it’s wom is way lower?

 

Aqp had to face two big openers in its 2nd weekend and in it’s 3rd weekend, none of the 3 new openers will beat TOD; let alone, Rampage.

 

 

 

Edited by BenedictL11
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BenedictL11 Box Office Gold

BenedictL11

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Thematrixfilm said:

2.6 - Monday

3.4 - Tuesday

2.6 - Wednesday

2.6 - Thursday

 

5.5 - Friday

8.25 - Saturday (-39%) 

5.5 - Sunday

 

if the second weekend was frontloaded

 

It’s not just increasing 111% this Friday when it’s Monday drop was in the 70s

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dxmatrixdt Summer Tentpole

dxmatrixdt

Posted
Posted (edited)

Predictions

Spoiler

(-37.1%) - A Quiet Place - 20.75 - 130.95

(-47.6%) - Rampage - 18.75 - 64.35

(new) - I Feel Pretty - 18.00 - 18.00

(new) - Super Troopers 2 - 12.50 - 12.50

(-35.8%) - Ready Player One - 7.40 - 126.00

(-63.0%) - Truth or Dare - 6.90 - 29.33

(-46.6%) - Blockers - 5.75 - 46.95

(new) - Traffik - 3.75 - 3.75

(-35.1%) - Black Panther - 3.75 - 680.11

(-35.2%) - Isle of Dogs - 3.55 - 24.50

 

(-34.8%) - I Can Only Imagine - 2.70 - 79.65

(-42.5%) - Acrimony - 2.10 - 41.12

(-45.8%) - Sherlock Gnomes - 1.30 - 39.40

(-36.4%) - Beirut - 1.10 - 3.96

(-57.0%) - Miracle Season - 0.95 - 8.65

(-47.8%) - Wrinkle in Time - 0.72 - 93.68

(-62.1%) - Pacific Rim - 0.55 - 58.65

(-50.0%) - Love, Simon - 0.53 - 40.26

(-44.3%) - Paul, Apostle - 0.34 - 17.01

(-45.7%) - Tomb Raider - 0.25 - 56.67

 

(-41.9%) - Peter Rabbit - 225k - 114.211

(-49.0%) - Game Night - 175k - 68.186

(-43.1%) - God's Not Dead 3 - 70k - 5.557

(-48.1%) - Death Wish - 40k - 33.868

(-73.1%) - Midnight Sun - 25k - 9.468

 

***

Chappaquiddick - 1.83 - 14.29

Sgt. Stubby - 0.51 - 2.15

 

Avengers - Infinity War             

Spoiler

screens lost on left (-300) - # of screens the second number '3,508'

(-300) - 3,508 - A Quiet Place - 12.00 - 151.11

(-500) - 3,615 - Rampage - 10.57 - 82.91

(------) - 3,440 - I Feel Pretty - 8.64 - 30.39

(------) - 2,038 - Super Troopers - 5.04 - 23.70

(------) - 1,046 - Traffik - 1.81 - 7.14

(-600) - 2,468 - Truth or Dare - 4.22 - 36.60

(-700) - 2,508 - Ready Player - 4.06 - 132.55

(-700) - 2,434 - Blockers - 4.07 - 54.86

(-600) - 1,330 - Panther - 2.33 - 684.94

(-700) - 1,247 - Isle of Dogs - 1.66 - 27.51

(-700) - 1,294 - Imagine - 1.33 - 81.71            

(-500) - 648 - Acrimony - 0.85 - 42.52

(-800) - 655 - Chappaq - 0.68 - 15.96

(-900) - 559 - Sherlock - 0.42 - 40.32

(-600) - 522 - Miracle - 0.22 - 9.41

(-400) - 265 - Time - 0.27 - 94.14

(-600) - 146 - Pacific - 0.18 - 59.02

(-300) - 191 - Love - 0.18 - 40.57

(-300) - 455 - Beirut - 0.45 - 4.80

 

 

WEEKEND - May 4-6

Spoiler

INFINITY WAR

Overboard - 9.50 - 9.50

Tulley - 9.50 - 9.50

AQP - 8.19 - 163.19

Rampage - 6.71 - 92.14

Bad Samaritan - 6.00 - 6.00

I Feel Pretty - 5.65 - 39.02

RP1 - 2.98 - 136.61

Blockers - 2.65 - 58.69

Truth or - 2.57 - 40.13

Panther - 1.48 - 686.99

Isle of Dogs - 0.94 - 29.01

Imagine - 0.85 - 82.97

 

Edited by Thematrixfilm
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Dandeak2000 Sleeper Hit

Dandeak2000

Posted
Posted

20th - 22nd April 2018 ($89)

 

1. A Quiet Place $21.5/$133.5 (-35%)

2. Rampage $16.1/$62 (-55%)

3. I Feel Pretty $15

4. Super Troopers 2 $7.5

5. Truth or Dare $7.1/$30 (-62%)

6. Ready Player One $6.3/$125 (-45%)

7. Blockers $5.9/$46.5 (-45%)

8. Black Panther $3.8/$680.5 (-35%)

9. Traffik $3

10. Isle of Dogs $2.8/$23.5 (-50%)

 

27th - 29th April 2018 ($303.6)

 

1. Avengers: Infinity War $262.5

2. A Quiet Place $10.8/$150.5 (-50%)

3. Rampage $7.2/$73 (-55%)

4. I Feel Pretty $6.8/$25.5 (-55%)

5. Super Troopers 2 $3.4/$13 (-55%)

6. Blockers $3/$51.5 (-50%)

7. Black Panther $2.9/$685.5 (-20%)

8. Truth or Dare $2.8/$34.5 (-60%)

9. Ready Player One $2.7/$129.5 (-55%)

10. Isle of Dogs $1.5/$26.3 (-45%)

 

Spoiler

4th - 6th May 2018 ($148.4)

 

1. Avengers: Infinity War $112.9/$440 (-57%)

2. Overboard $9

3. Tully $6.5

4. A Quiet Place $5.9/$160 (-45%)

5. Rampage $4/$79.5 (-45%)

6. I Feel Pretty $3.4/$33 (50%)

7. Bad Samaritan $2.2

8. Black Panther $1.7/$688.3 (-40%)

9. Blockers $1.65/$54.3 (-45%)

10. Truth or Dare $1.1/$36.5 (-60%)

 

11th - 13th May 2018 ($112.9)

 

1. Avengers: Infinity War $64.4/$538 (-43%)

2. Life of the Party $17

3. Breaking In $13.5

4. Overboard $4.5/$16.5 (-50%)

5. A Quiet Place $3.8/$166.3 (-35%)

6. Tully $3.3/$12 (-50%)

7. Rampage $2.4/$83.5 (-40%)

8. I Feel Pretty $1.9/$36.3 (-45%)

9. Bad Samaritan $1.1/$4.2 (-50%)

10. Black Panther $1/$690 (-40%)

 

18th - 20th May 2018 ($225)

 

1. Deadpool 2 $152.5

2. Avengers: Infinity War $29/$582.5 (-55%)

3. Show Dogs $15

4. Life of the Party $7.7/$29.5 (-55%)

5. Book Club $7.3

6. Breaking In $6.1/$23.5 (-55%) 

7. A Quiet Place $2.3/$170.5 (-40%)

8. Overboard $2.1/$20 (-53%)

9. Tully $1.7/$15 (-50%)

10. Rampage $1.3/$85.8 (-45%)

 

25th - 27th May 2018 ($264.8)

 

1. Solo: A Star Wars Story $165

2. Deadpool 2 $64.1/$262.5 (-53%)

3. Avengers: Infinity War $12.8/$602.5 (-56%)

4. Show Dogs $8.3/$23.3 (-45%)

5. Life of the Party $4.2/$36.3 (-45%)

6. Book Club $3.7/$13.5 (-50%)

7. Breaking In $3.1/$28.5 (-50%)

8. A Quiet Place $1.4/$172.8 (-40%)

9. Overboard $1.2/$22 (-45%)

10. Tully $1/$16.8 (-40%)

 

1st - 3rd June 2018 ($145.9)

 

1. Solo: A Star Wars Story $69.3/$270 (-58%)

2. Deadpool 2 $35.3/$315.5 (-45%)

3. Action Point $12.5

4. Adrift $8.5

5. Avengers: Infinity War $8.3/$615.5 (-35%)

6. Show Dogs $5/$31.5 (-40%)

7. Life of the Party $2.5/$41 (-40%)

8. Book Club $2/$15.5 (-45%)

9. Breaking In $1.6/$31.3 (-50%)

10. A Quiet Place $0.9/$174.5 (-35%)

 

8th - 10th June 2018 ($123.8)

 

1. Solo: A Star Wars Story $36/$327.5 (-48%)

2. Ocean's 8 $35

3. Deadpool 2 $21.2/$348 (-40%)

4. Hereditary $10.5

5. Action Point $5.6/$21.5 (-55%)

6. Avengers: Infinity War $5.4/$624.5 (-35%)

7. Adrift $4/$15.3 (-55%)

8. Show Dogs $3.3/$37 (-35%)

9. Life of the Party $1.6/$44.8 (-35%)

10. Book Club $1.2/$17.5 (40%)

 

15th - 17th June 2018 ($232.5)

 

1. The Incredibles 2 $150

2. Solo: A Star Wars Story $19.8/$358.5 (-45%)

3. Tag $18.5

4. Ocean's 8 $15.8/$60 (-55%)

5. Deadpool 2 $12.7/$368 (-40%)

6. Hereditary $5/$19 (-52%)

7. Avengers: Infinity War $3.8/$631 (-30%)

8. Action Point $2.8/$26.5 (-50%)

9. Show Dogs $2.1/$40.5 (-35%)

10. Adrift $2/$18.8 (-50%)

 

22nd - 24th June 2018 ($278.6)

 

1. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom $165

2. The Incredibles 2 $72/$265 (-52%)

3. Tag $10.2/$36 (-45%)

4. Solo: A Star Wars Story $9.9/$375 (-50%)

5. Ocean's 8 $7.1/$71.5 (-55%)

6. Deadpool 2 $6.4/$378.5 (-50%)

7. Hereditary $3/$24 (-40%)

8. Avengers: Infinity War $2.2/$635 (-42%)

9. Action Point $1.5/$30.3 (-48%)

10. Show Dogs $1.3/$42.8 (-40%)

 

 

 

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Impact Global Phenomenon

Impact

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How high will Avengers 3 be I wonder?

On another note-I just realized that this is the first year in a long time I didn't see a single March release in theaters! (I haven't seen any April releases either)

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