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Weekend Prediction thread 5/27-5/30 (Memorial Day weekend) Play the Derby

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12 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

Did I miss something? Why are both of you are expecting Morbius to increase from last weekend?

Bump in showtimes tied to Multiverse of Madness.

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Grebacio said:

Did I miss something? Why are both of you are expecting Morbius to increase from last weekend?

 

Morbius is paired with a reasonably high amount of Drive In pairings with DS2, along with Death on the Nile and some Encanto and Shang Chi. 

From memory you have the likes of Captain Marvel here:
https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/weekend/2019/04/26

Black Panther and Wrinkle in Time here:
https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/weekend/2018/04/27

Wrinkle again here:
https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/weekend/2018/06/15

 

Dumbo this weekend:
https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/weekend/2019/05/24

It's not a uniquely Disney thing btw, I think Annabelle Creation had DI pairings with IT leading to a much softer drop than expected, essentially keep an eye on large releases between Spring Break and say, Labor Day weekend, when Drive In's are up and running. If you have a large film releasing you might see older films from the same studio paired with the larger film in an effort to bump the older films gross. Its also considerably more wishy washy than conventional box office gross calculations... In the case of Wrinkle highlighted above, Disney used two DI bumps to push that film over the 100m mark after it looked destined to end up in the low 90's.
Death on the Nile is at 45m now, don't be surprised to see that post a 1-2m weekend as they try get it towards 50m. Encanto also has 100m in its sights 

Edited by Sandro Mazzola
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9 minutes ago, Sandro Mazzola said:

 

Morbius is paired with a reasonably high amount of Drive In pairings with DS2, along with Death on the Nile and some Encanto and Shang Chi. 

From memory you have the likes of Captain Marvel here:
https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/weekend/2019/04/26

Black Panther and Wrinkle in Time here:
https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/weekend/2018/04/27

Wrinkle again here:
https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/weekend/2018/06/15

 

Dumbo this weekend:
https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/weekend/2019/05/24

It's not a uniquely Disney thing btw, I think Annabelle Creation had DI pairings with IT leading to a much softer drop than expected, essentially keep an eye on large releases between Spring Break and say, Labor Day weekend, when Drive In's are up and running. If you have a large film releasing you might see older films from the same studio paired with the larger film in an effort to bump the older films gross. Its also considerably more wishy washy than conventional box office gross calculations... In the case of Wrinkle highlighted above, Disney used two DI bumps to push that film over the 100m mark after it looked destined to end up in the low 90's.
Death on the Nile is at 45m now, don't be surprised to see that post a 1-2m weekend as they try get it towards 50m. Encanto also has 100m in its sights 

The strange thing is that this time the two movies are not from the same studio

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Posted (edited)

MAY 13-15:

 

1. "Doctor Strange 2" - 67.5 / 298.6

2. "The Bad Guys" - 6.9 / 66.3

3. "Sonic 2" - 4.7 / 175.9

4. "Firestarter" - 4.4

5. "Everything Everywhere" - 3.0 / 46.7

6. "Fantastic Beasts 3" - 2.9 / 90.6

7. "The Lost City" - 2.2 / 97.7

8. "The Northman" - 1.9 / 31.4

9. "Family Camp" - 1.3

10. "The Unbearable" - 0.9 / 18.1

11. "Memory" - 0.7 / 7.0

12. "Father Stu" - 0.4 / 20.1

Edited by ViktorLosAngeles
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My Derby projection for Memory is $0.623M which is EXACTLY what it would earn if it dropped another 55% (I didn’t remember its drop last weekend before I entered the wild guess). What are the odds….down to the 3rd decimal place. Wow. Haha. 

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MAY 20-22:

 

1. "Doctor Strange 2" - 27.7 / 341.4

2. "Downton Abbey 2" - 15.8

3. "Men" - 5.3

4. "The Bad Guys" - 5.1 / 74.0

5. "Sonic 2" - 3.5 / 180.9

6. "Everything Everywhere" - 2.9 / 51.5

7. "Fantastic Beasts 3" - 1.4 / 92.3

8. "Firestarter" - 1.3 / 6.1

9. "The Lost City" - 1.2 / 99.0

10. "The Northman" - 1.0 / 32.8

11. "Family Camp" - 0.7 / 2.5

12. "The Unbearable" - 0.6 / 19.2

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MAY 27-29:
 

1. "Top Gun: Maverick" - 95.5

2. "Doctor Strange 2" - 12.9 / 365.8

3. "Downton Abbey 2" - 7.5 / 27.8

4. "The Bob' Burger" - 6.8

5. "The Bad Guys" - 3.3 / 79.8

6. "Everything Everywhere" - 2.2 / 55.7

7. "Sonic 2" - 2.0 / 184.4

8. "Men" - 1.2 / 5.5

9. "Fantastic Beasts 3" - 0.8 / 94.5

10. "The Lost City" - 0.8 / 100.5

11. "Firestarter" - 0.6 / 8.1

12. "The Northman" - 0.4 / 33.7

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