Weekend Prediction thread 4/19-4/21 Play the Derby

[Quigley]

This is how much Penguins of Madagscar will earn on its 5-day weekend if it follows the trajectory of the films below (based on pre-Thanskgiving Wednesday gross):

 

Bolt ~$45M

Rise of the Guardians ~$42M

Happy Feet ~$42M

The Muppets ~$40M

Frozen ~$38M

Tangled ~$36M

 

Given that it's non-original, it will probs be more front-loaded, so $40M is a best-case scenario.

Edited November 28, 2014 by Quigley

[Quigley]

Among the films mentioned above, the worst Wednesday-to-Thursday drop was posted by Tangled (-32%). Penguins was even worse, falling 37%. It may even struggle to reach $35M by Sunday.

[Impact]

Looks like Pyramid is estimated on 550 theaters.

So I will say 1M next weekend for it....

[filmlover]

This upcoming weekend is so exciting! Post-Thanksgiving blues for everyone!

 

They should've opened Top Five here instead of the following week. Or moved The Interview up to this week instead of the crowded Christmas frame.

[mahnamahna]

December 5th-7th

1. Mockingjay 1: $26.5 million ($264 million)
2. The Penguins of Madagascar: $12 million ($52 million) 
3. Big Hero 6: $9 million ($179 million)
4. Interstellar: $8.5 million ($160 million)
5. The Pyramid: $7.5 million 
6. Horrible Bosses 2: $7 million ($33 million)
7. Dumb and Dumber To: $4 million ($78 million)
8. The Theory of Everything: $3.5 million ($14 million) 
9. Gone Girl: $1 million ($162 million)
10. Birdman: $1 million ($18 million)

December 12th-14th

1. Exodus: $60.5 million 
2. Mockingjay 1: $19 million ($292 million) 
3. Top Five: $15.5 million 
4. The Penguins of Madagascar: $8.5 million ($62 million) 
5. Big Hero 6: $7.5 million ($188 million) 
6. Interstellar: $6 million ($169 million)
7. The Theory of Everything: $4.5 million ($19 million) 
8. Horrible Bosses 2: $3 million ($37 million) 
9. The Pyramid: $2.5 million ($11 million) 
10. Dumb and Dumber To: $2 million ($81 million) 

December 19th-21st

1. The Hobbit 3: $76.5 million/$118 million 
2. Exodus: $28 million ($107 million) 
3. Night at the Museum 3: $24.5 million 
4. Annie: $18 million 
5. Mockingjay Part 1: $11 million ($310 million) 
6. Top Five: $9 million ($30 million)
7. The Theory of Everything: $4.5 million ($26 million) 
8. Big Hero 6: $4 million ($194 million)
9. The Penguins of Madagascar: $3.5 million ($67 million) 
10. Interstellar: $3 million ($173 million) 

December 26th-28th

1. The Hobbit 3: $45 million ($228 million) 
2. Into the Woods: $42.5 million ($65 million) 
3. Unbroken: $30.5 million ($44 million) 
4. Exodus: $23.5 million ($158 million) 
5. Night at the Museum 3: $21 million ($70 million) 
6. The Interview: $16 million ($28 million)
7. Annie: $14.5 million ($51 million) 
8. Mockingjay 1: $8.5 million ($327 million)
9. The Theory of Everything: $6 million ($38 million) 
10. Top Five: $5.5 million ($42 million) 
11. Interstellar: $3.5 million ($180 million) 
12. Big Hero 6: $3 million ($201 million) 
13. The Penguins of Madagascar: $2.5 million ($73 million) 

January 2nd-4th

1. Into the Woods: $28 million ($136 million)
2. The Hobbit 3: $26.5 million ($299 million) 
3. Unbroken: $24 million ($98 million)
4. Exodus: $16 million ($197 million) 
5. Night at the Museum 3: $13.5 million ($104 million)
6. The Interview: $10 million ($54 million) 
7. Annie: $9 million ($74 million) 
8. The Woman in Black 2: $7 million 
9. The Theory of Everything: $5.5 million ($50 million) 
10. Mockingjay 1: $5 million ($338 million) 
11. Top Five: $3 million ($50 million) 
12. Interstellar: $2.5 million ($186 million)
13. Big Hero 6: $2 million ($206 million)

January 9th-11th

1. Taken 3: $36.5 million 
2. Selma: $27 million ($30 million) 
3. Unbroken: $17.5 million ($124 million) 
4. Into the Woods: $15.5 million ($156 million) 
5. The Hobbit 3: $14 million ($320 million)
6. Inherent Vice: $10.5 million ($13 million) 
7. Exodus: $8 million ($210 million) 
8. Night at the Museum 3: $7 million ($113 million)
9. Annie: $5 million ($80 million)
10. The Interview: $4.5 million ($61 million)

January 16th-18th

1. The Wedding Ringer: $44.5 million/$58 million 
2. American Sniper: $30.5 million/$42 million ($44 million) 
3. Selma: $24.5 million/$36 million ($78 million)
4. Paddington: $18 million/$24.5 million 
5. Taken 3: $16 million/$19 million ($63 million) 
6. Unbroken: $15 million/$19.5 million ($151 million)
7. Into the Woods: $10.5 million/$14 million ($172 million)
8. The Hobbit 3: $8 million/$10.5 million ($333 million)
9. Inherent Vice: $7 million/$8.5 million ($25 million)
10. Exodus: $4.5 million/$5.5 million ($218 million)

January 23rd-25th

1. The Wedding Ringer: $23 million ($90 million) 
2. American Sniper: $19 million ($69 million) 
3. Selma: $17 million ($101 million)
4. Mortdecai: $13.5 million 
5. Unbroken: $10.5 million ($164 million) 
6. Paddington: $10 million ($37 million) 
7. Strange Magic: $8 million 
8. Taken 3: $7.5 million ($74 million) 
9. The Boy Next Door: $7 million 
10. Into the Woods: $6.5 million ($180 million) 

January 30th-February 1st 

1. Project Almanac: $18.5 million 
2. The Wedding Ringer: $14 million ($111 million) 
3. Max: $12 million 
4. Selma: $11 million ($118 million)
5. American Sniper: $10.5 million ($85 million) 
6. Unbroken: $8 million ($176 million) 
7. Mortdecai: $7 million ($24 million) 
8. Paddington: $6 million ($44 million)
9. Black or White: $5 million 
10. Into the Woods: $4.5 million ($186 million) 

February 6th-8th

1. SpongeBob 2: $44 million 
2. Jupiter Ascending: $32.5 million 
3. Seventh Son: $11 million 
4. The Wedding Ringer: $9.5 million ($125 million) 
5. Selma: $9 million ($131 million) 
6. American Sniper: $7.5 million ($96 million)
7. Unbroken: $7 million ($187 million) 
8. Project Almanac: $5.5 million ($26 million)
9. Max: $5 million ($18 million)
10. Mortdecai: $4 million ($30 million)

February 13th-15th

1. 50 Shades of Grey: $120.5 million/$142 million 
2. SpongeBob 2: $30.5 million/$39 million ($92 million)
3. Kingsman - The Secret Service: $23.5 million/$29 million 
4. Jupiter Ascending: $17 million/$20.5 million ($61 million)
5. Selma: $10 million/$12 million ($147 million) 
6. The Wedding Ringer: $9 million/$10.5 million ($139 million)
7. Unbroken: $8 million/$9.5 million ($200 million) 
8. Seventh Son: $5 million/$6 million ($19 million) 
9. American Sniper: $4.5 million/$5.5 million ($104 million)
10. Max: $3.5 million/$4.5 million ($23 million) 

Edited November 30, 2014 by mahnamahna

[Avatree]

Dec 5-7:

 

1. Mockingjay $19.2 million

2. Penguins of Madagascar: $10.7 million

3. Big Hero 6: $8.5 million

4. Interstellar: $7.2 million

5. Horrible Bosses 2: $5.9 million

 

The Pyramid: $2.8 million

 

 

February 13th-15th

1. 50 Shades of Grey: $120.5 million/$142 million 

Join my club! 

Fifty Shades over 100M OW

http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/index.php?/topic/16857-fifty-shades-over-100m-ow/

[bapi]

Mockingjay  -67%

Penguins  -53%

Big Hero  -47%

Interstellar  -49%

Horrible Bosses  -58%

Dumb and Dumber To  -68%

[VictorHugogui]

Mockingjay - 28M

Penguins    - 12M

Big Hero      -  9M

Interestellar -  8M

HB2             - 7M

 

The Pyramid - 1M or less

[Impact]

Remember post Thanksgiving drops are pretty big-though the past few years have been odd.

[Blankments]

1. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1 - 20.5M
2. The Penguins of Madagascar - 19.8M
3. Big Hero 6 - 10.9M
4. Interstellar - 8.3M
5. Horrible Bosses 2 - 7.0M
6. The Theory of Everything - 3.2M
7. Dumb and Dumber To - 2.8M
8. Foxcatcher - 1.4M
9. Gone Girl - 1.3M
10. The Pyramid - 1.2M
11. Birdman - 1.1M
12. St. Vincent - 1.0M

Fury - 0.9M

Beyond the Lights - 0.6M

[dxmatrixdt]

1.  Hunger Games - 21.52 - 257.74

 

2.  Penguins of Madagascar - 12.32 - 51.00

 

3.  Horrible Bosses 2 - 11.23 - 38.41

 

4.  Big Hero 6 - 8.74 - 178.41

 

5.  Interstellar - 8.21 - 158.63

 

6.  Dumb and Dumber 2 - 4.48 - 78.35

 

7.  Theory of Everything - 3.79 - 14.57

 

Gone Girl - 1.34 - 162.65

Birdman - 1.21 - 18.92

Beyond the Lights - 1.04 - 14.14

St. Vincent - 1.01 - 40.64

Nightcrawler - 0.96 - 29.89

Fury - 0.94 - 83.26

Guardians of the Galaxy - 0.38 - 332.38

The Judge - 0.35 - 46.53

John Wick - 0.34 - 42.12

The Equalizer - 0.30 - 100.44

Alexander - 0.26 - 64.46

Ouija - 0.24 - 50.66

Boxtrolls - 0.20 - 50.15

Maze Runner - 0.20 - 101.31

Book of Life - 0.19 - 48.60

Best of Me - 0.07 - 26.53

Annabelle - 0.06 - 84.23

 

 

1.  Exodus - 52.20 - 52.20

 

2.  Top Five - 15.40 - 15.40

 

3.  Hunger - 13.68 - 277.90

 

4.  Penguins - 8.63 - 62.66

 

5.  Horrible Bosses 2 - 7.21 - 49.00

 

6.  Interstellar - 6.48 - 167.92

 

7.  Big Hero 6 - 6.28 - 186.79

 

8.  Theory of Everything - 3.96 - 19.83

 

9.  Dumb and DUmber 2 - 2.86 - 82.66

 

Birdman - 0.85 - 20.19

Gone Girl - 0.72 - 163.81

Fury - 0.48 - 84.06

St. Vincent - 0.46 - 41.45

Nightcrawler - 0.34 - 30.53

Guardians of the Galaxy - 0.27 - 332.77

The Judge - 0.26 - 46.90

Beyond the Lights - 0.24 - 14.64

John Wick - 0.22 - 42.45

Alexander - 0.20 - 64.73

Equalizer - 0.20 - 100.74

Maze Runner - 0.18 - 101.55

Boxtrolls - 0.16 - 50.36

Book of Life - 0.15 - 48.80

Ouija - 0.14 - 50.87

Best of Me - 0.05 - 26.60

Annabelle - 0.04 - 84.29 

[DAJK]

1. MockingJay - $21M

2. Penguins - $14M

3. Big hero 6 - $8.5M

4. Interstellar - $8.2

5. Horrible Bosses 2 - $6.33

6. Dumb and Dumber - $3.34M

7. The Theory of Everything - $3.25M

8. Gone Girl - $1.4M

9. The Pyramid - $1.2M

10. Foxcatcher - $1.15M

11. Birdman - $1.12M

12. The Imitation Game - $1.1M

[Blankments]

I'm switching to Christmas schedule AKA looking at hometown movies:

 

The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1 - 41/5 (2D/2D with D-BOX) total 46

The Penguins of Madagascar - 26/6 (2D/3D) total 32

Horrible Bosses 2 - 28

Big Hero 6 - 12/7 (2D/3D) total 19

Interstellar - 9/4/4 (2D/4K/IMAX) total 17

Dumb and Dumber To - 15

Gone Girl - 10

St. Vincent - 8

Nightcrawler - 7

The Pyramid - 6

Hector and the Search for Happiness - 4

Beyond the Lights - 3

Fury - 2

[Impact]

Seeing MJ1 tomorrow. Not sure what to predict though for the weekend.

And I was just looking at the biggest bombs ever, 47 Ronin is at the top, but wow-13th Warrior is STILL the biggest bomb adjusted.

[lilmac]

MJ1 - $21.64m

Everything else - under $12 million (don't care)

 

[Impact]

Next weekend (opener only):
Exodus: 30M

[mahnamahna]

Dec 12-14

1. Exodus: $48.5 million 
2. Top Five: $22.5 million 
3. Mockingjay Part 1: $15.5 million ($281 million)
4. The Penguins of Madagascar: $9 million ($60 million)
5. Big Hero 6: $6.5 million ($185 million)
6. Interstellar: $6 million ($167 million)
7. Horrible Bosses 2: $4.5 million ($42 million)
8. The Theory of Everything: $4 million ($20 million) 
9. Dumb and Dumber To: $2 million ($81 million)
10. Wild: $1.5 million ($2 million)

Dec 19-21

1. The Hobbit 3: $76 million ($120 million)
2. Night at the Museum 3: $27 million 
3. Exodus: $22 million ($83 million) 
4. Annie: $18 million 
5. Top Five: $14 million ($44 million)
6. Mockingjay Part 1: $9 million ($296 million) 
7. The Penguins of Madagascar: $5 million ($67 million)
8. Big Hero 6: $4 million ($191 million)
9. Interstellar: $3.5 million ($173 million)
10. The Theory of Everything: $3 million ($24 million)

Edited December 6, 2014 by mahnamahna

[filmlover]

 

Dec 12-14

1. Exodus: $48.5 million 
2. Top Five: $22.5 million 
3. Mockingjay Part 1: $15.5 million ($281 million)
4. The Penguins of Madagascar: $9 million ($60 million)
5. Big Hero 6: $6.5 million ($185 million)
6. Interstellar: $6 million ($167 million)
7. Horrible Bosses 2: $4.5 million ($42 million)
8. The Theory of Everything: $4 million ($20 million) 
9. Dumb and Dumber To: $2 million ($81 million)
10. Wild: $1.5 million ($2 million)

You do know that Top Five is opening in less than a thousand theaters, right? That would be a $22K PTA. Not happening.

[lilmac]

MJ1 - $21.64m

Everything else - under $12 million (don't care)

 

 

 

Nailed it.

[VictorHugogui]

Exodus : 33M

Top Five : 4M

..............

MJ1: 14M