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Weekend Prediction thread 3/29-3/31 Play the Derby

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20 hours ago, Barnack said:

That low with an over 2000 theater opening and pretty much no direct competition (or competition in general) at all ?

 

Box office pro had it doing 45m not so long ago, I imagine it was before the reviews.

 

Trying to look at precedent, it could happen too, but would be very on the low side for a wide release with the people involved.

 

Clooney wide release directed movie:

  • Leatherheads: 12.6m (2,800 theater)
  • Ides of March: 10.47m (2,200 theater)
  • Monument men: 22m (3,000 theater)

Damon recent non franchise/big spectacle movies (say below 60m budget):

  • We bought a zoo: 9.36m (3,117 theater)
  • Promised Land: 4.05m (1,600 theater)
  • Hereafter: 12m (2,180 theater)
  • The Informant: 10.4m (2,505 theater)

Damon Big non franchise lead role movie opening:

  • Great Wall: 18m
  • Martian: 54m
  • Elysium: 29.8m
  • Contagion: 22.4m
  • Adjustment bureau: 21m
  • Green Zone: 14.3m
  • Invictus: 8.6m

 

Coens:

Hail, Ceasar: 11.35m (2,200 theater)

Inside Llewyn Davis/Serious man (never got wide)

 

 

 

 

I see it between $6 million to $8 million but the reviews will probably break this movie. Only the Brave only earned 6 million this past weekend on a 90% Tomatometer and an all-star cast. Suburbicon has an all-star cast but a dismal 40%. That and the adult audience will probably be divided between this and Thank You For Your Service (but I don't even think that film will do well either regardless of its reception).

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Jigsaw - 14.0

Madea - 12.0 - 38.0

Geostorm - 6.25 - 24.00

Suburbicon - 5.00 - 5.00

Thank You For Your Service - 5.00 - 5.00

Happy Death Day - 5.00 - 48.00

Blade Runner  - 4.25 - 81.25

Only the Brave - 3.50 - 11.50

Foreigner - 3.25 - 28.50

 

It - 2.25 - 323.60

American Made - 1.90 - 47.70

Kingsman - 1.80 - 97.40

Victoria - 1.60 - 17.50

Snowman - 1.60 - 6.00

Mountain - 1.50 - 28.10

Same Kind of Different - 1.50 - 4.80

LEGO - 1.50 - 56.70

Pony - 1.10 - 20.10

Marshall - 0.75 - 6.75

Sexes - 0.375 - 12.05

American Assassin - 0.100 - 36.14

 

**All I See is You - 0.500 - 0.500

**Amityville: The Awakening - 1.00 - opens SATURDAY (limited)

Edited by Matrix4You
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On ‎10‎/‎22‎/‎2017 at 7:47 PM, WrathOfHan said:

It shouldn't really be surprising that Paramount didn't bother fixing the mismarketing of Suburbicon's tone. They've basically taken the L on this movie already.

I think the weak reviews would have killed it anyway. It's the kind of movie that needs good reviews to be a success.

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On 10/22/2017 at 9:05 PM, Rorschach said:

Suburbicon: $6 million

 

 

On 10/22/2017 at 9:33 PM, Barnack said:

That low with an over 2000 theater opening and pretty much no direct competition (or competition in general) at all ?

Well.....

That’s likely to be well ahead of two other new titles — Paramount’s dark comedy “Suburbicon” and DreamWorks’ PTSD drama “Thank You for Your Service.” “Suburbicon,” directed by George Clooney and starring Matt Damon, is heading for $5 million to $7 million at 2,046 venues

http://variety.com/2017/film/news/jigsaw-box-office-opening-preview-1202598482/

 

Look like you were right on target.

Edited by Barnack
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Oct 27:

1. Jigsaw: $15M

 

Nov 3:

1. Thor: Ragnarok: $135M

 

Nov 10:

1. Thor: Ragnarok: $60.8M

2. Daddy's Home 2: $40M

 

Nov 17:

1. Justice League: $175M

 

Nov 24: 

1. Justice League: $80.4M

2. Coco: $63.8M

 

Dec 1:

1. Coco: $31.5M

 

Dec 8:

1. Coco: $21.3M

2. Just Getting Started: $10M

 

Dec 15: 

1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi: $235M

 

Dec 22:

1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi: $134M

 

Dec 29:

1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi: $80.4M

2. The Greatest Showman: $20M

 

Jan 5:

1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi: $40M

2. Insidious: $20M

 

Jan 12:

1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi: $26M

2. The Commuter: $15M

 

Jan 19:

1. 12 Strong: $25M

 

Jan 26:

1. Maze Runner: $25M

 

Feb 2:

1. Cloverfield: $20M

 

Feb 9:

1. 50 Shades: $40M

 

Feb 16:

1. Black Panther: $112M

 

Feb 23:

1. Black Panther: $50M

2. Annihilation: $30M

 

March 2:

1. Black Panther: $29M

2. Red Sparrow: $27.5M

 

March 9:

1. A Wrinkle In Time: $43M

 

March 16:

1. Tomb Raider: $35M

 

March 23:

1. Pacific Rim 2: $40M

 

March 30:

1. Ready Player One: $67M

 

April 6:

1. Ready Player One: $38M

2. Blockers: $15M

 

April 13:

1. The New Mutants: $55M

 

April 20:

1. The New Mutants: $24M

2. Rampage: $20M

 

April 27: 

1. Traffik: $13M

 

May 4:

1. Avengers: Infinity War: $205M

 

May 11:

1. Avengers: Infinity War: $85.1M

2. Life Of The Party: $10M

 

May 18:

1. Avengers: Infinity War: $42M

2. Slenderman: $26M

 

May 25:

1. Solo: A Star Wars Story: $152M

 

June 1:

1. Deadpool 2: $123M

 

June 8:

1. Deadpool 2: $54.2M

2. Oceans 8: $40M

 

June 15:

1. The Incredibles 2: $115M

 

June 22:

1. Jurassic World 2: $165M

 

June 29:

1. Jurassic World 2: $74M

2. Tag!: $20M

 

July 6:

1. Ant Man & The Wasp: $86M

 

July 13:

1. Ant Man & The Wasp: $37M

2. Purge 4: $28M

 

July 20:

1. The Nun: $43M

 

July 27:

1. Mamma Mia 2!: $38M

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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On 10/18/2017 at 11:34 AM, Blankments said:

The Mountain Between Us, My Little Pony: The Movie, Brave, The Stray, and The LEGO Ninjago Movie are gone.

American Made, American Assassin, and Flatliners are gone.

 

Jigsaw - 17 (debut)

Geostorm - 12/2 (2D/3D) total 14 (no change)

Happy Death Day - 13 (down 1)

Thank You For Your Service - 11 (debut)

Boo 2! A Madea Halloween - 10 (down 1)
Only the Brave - 9 (down 1)
Blade Runner 2049 - 6 (down 2)
The Foreigner - 5 (down 4)
Suburbicon - 5 (debut)

It - 4 (down 6)

The Snowman - 4 (no change)
Victoria and Abdul - 4 (debut)

Same Kind of Different As Me - 3

Battle of the Sexes - 1 (down 2)
Kingsman: The Golden Circle - 1 (down 4)
The Rocky Horror Picture Show - 1 (no change)

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Bottom half, weekend predix

 

(-27.6%) - It - 2.50 - 323.88

(-44.1%) - American Made - 1.75 - 48.58 total

(-43.5%) - Kingsman - 1.70 - 97.41 total

(-32.6%) - Lego Ninjago - 1.50 - 56.69 total

(-29.4%) - Victoria and Abdul - 1.50 - 17.61 total

(-33.4%) - My Little Pony - 1.35 - 20.38 total

 

(-46.0%) - Marshall - 800k - 6.85 total

new - Alll I See Is You - 310k

(-48.9%) - Battle of the Sexes - 300k - 12.00 total

(+30.4%) - Goodbye Christopher Robin - 200k - 0.500 total
(-38.8%) - American Assassin - 100k - 36.14 total

Edited by Matrix4You
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Jigsaw doing ok. But here’s the last possibility that could save a dying 2017. 

Thor 3: $120 million 

Bad Moms:$19 million($24 million 5-day)

 

next weekend 

Murder On Orient Express:$26 million

Daddy’s Home 2:$24 million

 

the next One 

Justic League: $130 million 

Wonder: $8 million

The Star: $7 million

 

Thanksgiving

Coco:$50 million($72 million 5-day)

Polaroid:$1.5 million($3 million 5-day)

 

any questions?

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Next Weekend:

  1. Thor: Ragnarok: $135 million
  2. Bad Moms Christmas: $30 million
  3. Jigsaw: $7 million
  4. Boo 2!: $4.4 million
  5. Geostorm: $2.5 million

Weekend #45:

  1. Thor: Ragnarok: $57.4 million
  2. Murder On The Orient Express: $40 million
  3. Daddys Home 2: $34 million
  4. Bad Moms Christmas: $15 million
  5. Jigsaw: $4 million

Weekend #46:

  1. Justice League: $175.7 million
  2. Thor: Ragnarok: $23 million
  3. Murder On The Orient Express: $22 million
  4. Wonder: $20 million
  5. Daddy's Home 2: $16 million

Weekend #47:

  1. Justice League: $75 million
  2. Coco: $62.5 million
  3. Thor: Ragnarok: $15 million
  4. Murder On The Orient Express: $13.2 million
  5. Wonder: $12 million

Weekend #48:

  1. Coco: $31.2 million
  2. Justice League: $30 million
  3. Thor: Ragnarok: $9 million
  4. Murder On The Orient Express: $8 million
  5. Wonder: $7.2 million
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Spoiler

11/3-11/5

  1. Thor - Ragnorak: $131 million 
  2. A Bad Moms Christmas: $21 million ($31 million)
  3. Jigsaw: $4.5 million ($23 million) 
  4. Boo 2! A Madea Halloween: $4 million ($41 million) 
  5. Happy Death Day: $2.5 million ($52 million) 
  6. Blade Runner 2049: $2.5 million ($85 million) 
  7. Only the Brave: $2.5 million ($16 million) 
  8. Thank You for Your Service: $2.5 million ($8 million) 
  9. Geostorm: $2 million ($26 million) 
  10. The Foreigner: $1.5 million ($31 million) 

11/10-11/12

  1. Thor - Ragnorak: $57.5 million ($219 million) 
  2. Murder on the Orient Express: $45.5 million 
  3. Daddy's Home 2: $27.5 million 
  4. A Bad Moms Christmas: $13 million ($50 million) 
  5. Jigsaw: $2 million ($26 million) 
  6. Boo 2! A Madea Halloween: $2 million ($44 million) 
  7. Thank You For Your Service: $2 million ($11 million) 
  8. Only the Brave: $1.75 million ($18 million) 
  9. Blade Runner 2049: $1.5 million ($87 million) 
  10. Happy Death Day: $1.5 million ($54 million) 

11/17-11/19

  1. Justice League: $127 million 
  2. Murder on the Orient Express: $23.5 million ($83 million) 
  3. Thor - Ragnorak: $22 million ($254 million) 
  4. Daddy's Home 2: $15 million ($49 million) 
  5. The Star: $9 million 
  6. Wonder: $8 million 
  7. A Bad Moms Christmas: $7.5 million ($61 million) 
  8. Thank You For Your Service: $1 million ($12 million) 
  9. Blade Runner 2049: $1 million ($88 million) 
  10. Only the Brave: $1 million ($19 million) 

11/22-11/26

  1. Coco: $65.5 million/$95 million 
  2. Justice League: $54 million/$77.5 million ($224 million) 
  3. Thor - Ragnorak: $18 million/$26.5 million ($286 million) 
  4. Murder on the Orient Express: $16.5 million/$23.5 million ($112 million) 
  5. Daddy's Home 2: $12 million/$17.5 million ($70 million) 
  6. The Star: $10 million/$14.5 million ($26 million) 
  7. Wonder: $9 million/$12.5 million ($22 million) 
  8. A Bad Moms Christmas: $6 million/$9 million ($72 million) 
  9. Roman J. Israel, Esq: $3.5 million/$5.5 million ($7 million) 
  10. Polaroid: $2 million/$3.5 million 

12/1-12/3

  1. Coco: $29.5 million ($135 million) 
  2. Justice League: $21.5 million ($256 million) 
  3. Murder on the Orient Express: $8.5 million ($125 million) 
  4. Thor - Ragnorak: $8 million ($298 million) 
  5. Daddy's Home 2: $7 million ($80 million) 
  6. The Star: $6.5 million ($34 million) 
  7. A Bad Moms Christmas: $4 million ($78 million) 
  8. Wonder: $4 million ($27 million) 
  9. Roman Israel, Esq: $2 million ($10 million) 
  10. The Disaster Artist: $1.5 million 

12/8-12/10

  1. Coco: $22 million ($164 million) 
  2. Justice League: $14 million ($277 million) 
  3. Murder on the Orient Express: $7 million ($135 million) 
  4. Just Getting Started: $6 million 
  5. Thor - Ragnorak: $6 million ($307 million) 
  6. Daddy's Home 2: $5.5 million ($88 million) 
  7. The Star: $5 million ($40 million) 
  8. Wonder: $3 million ($31 million) 
  9. The Disaster Artist: $2.5 million ($4 million) 
  10. The Shape of Water: $2.5 million 

12/15-12/17

  1. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $213.5 million 
  2. Ferdinand: $19.5 million 
  3. Coco: $11.5 million ($180 million) 
  4. Justice League: $4.5 million ($284 million) 
  5. The Disaster Artist: $4 million ($9 million) 
  6. Murder on the Orient Express: $3.5 million ($140 million) 
  7. Just Getting Started: $3 million ($10 million) 
  8. Daddy's Home 2: $3 million ($93 million) 
  9. The Star: $3 million ($44 million) 
  10. Thor - Ragnorak: $2 million ($310 million) 

12/22-12/25

  1. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $102 million/$138 million ($453 million) 
  2. Pitch Perfect 3: $31.5 million/$45 million 
  3. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $23.5 million/$35 million ($54 million)
  4. Ferdinand: $21 million/$31.5 million ($67 million) 
  5. The Greatest Showman: $18.5 million/$27.5 million ($42 million) 
  6. Coco: $13.5 million/$19.5 million ($211 million) 
  7. Downsizing: $9 million/$13 million 
  8. Father Figures: $6 million/$8.5 million 
  9. The Disaster Artist: $5.5 million/$7.5 million ($21 million) 
  10. All the Money in the World: $5 million/$7 million 
  11. The Star: $4 million/$6 million ($54 million) 
  12. Justice League: $3.5 million/$4.5 million ($292 million) 
  13. Murder on the Orient Express: $2.5 million/$3.5 million ($146 million) 
  14. Just Getting Started: $2 million/$3 million ($15 million) 
  15. Thor - Ragnorak: $1.5 million/$2.25 million ($314 million) 

12/29-1/1

  1. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $57 million/$80.5 million ($590 million) 
  2. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $24.5 million/$33 million ($111 million) 
  3. Pitch Perfect 3: $22 million/$28 million ($95 million) 
  4. Ferdinand: $18 million/$24 million ($111 million) 
  5. The Greatest Showman: $14 million/$19 million ($75 million) 
  6. Coco: $12 million/$16 million ($241 million) 
  7. Downsizing: $7 million/$9 million ($36 million) 
  8. The Disaster Artist: $5 million/$6 million ($32 million) 
  9. Father Figures: $4 million/$5 million ($18 million) 
  10. All the Money in the World: $3.5 million/$4.5 million ($15 million) 
  11. Justice League: $3 million/$3.75 million ($299 million) 
  12. Murder on the Orient Express: $2 million/$2.75 million ($151 million) 
  13. The Star: $1.5 million/$2 million ($58 million) 
  14. Just Getting Started: $1.5 million/$2 million ($19 million) 
  15. Thor - Ragnorak: $1.5 million/$2 million ($318 million) 

 

 

Edited by mahnamahna
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4 minutes ago, mahnamahna said:
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11/3-11/5

  1. Thor - Ragnorak: $131 million 
  2. A Bad Moms Christmas: $21 million ($31 million)
  3. Jigsaw: $4.5 million ($23 million) 
  4. Boo 2! A Madea Halloween: $4 million ($41 million) 
  5. Happy Death Day: $2.5 million ($52 million) 
  6. Blade Runner 2049: $2.5 million ($85 million) 
  7. Only the Brave: $2.5 million ($16 million) 
  8. Thank You for Your Service: $2.5 million ($8 million) 
  9. Geostorm: $2 million ($26 million) 
  10. The Foreigner: $1.5 million ($31 million) 

11/10-11/12

  1. Thor - Ragnorak: $57.5 million ($219 million) 
  2. Murder on the Orient Express: $45.5 million 
  3. Daddy's Home 2: $27.5 million 
  4. A Bad Moms Christmas: $13 million ($50 million) 
  5. Jigsaw: $2 million ($26 million) 
  6. Boo 2! A Madea Halloween: $2 million ($44 million) 
  7. Thank You For Your Service: $2 million ($11 million) 
  8. Only the Brave: $1.75 million ($18 million) 
  9. Blade Runner 2049: $1.5 million ($87 million) 
  10. Happy Death Day: $1.5 million ($54 million) 

11/17-11/19

  1. Justice League: $127 million 
  2. Murder on the Orient Express: $23.5 million ($83 million) 
  3. Thor - Ragnorak: $22 million ($254 million) 
  4. Daddy's Home 2: $15 million ($49 million) 
  5. The Star: $9 million 
  6. Wonder: $8 million 
  7. A Bad Moms Christmas: $7.5 million ($61 million) 
  8. Thank You For Your Service: $1 million ($12 million) 
  9. Blade Runner 2049: $1 million ($88 million) 
  10. Only the Brave: $1 million ($19 million) 

11/22-11/26

  1. Coco: $65.5 million/$95 million 
  2. Justice League: $54 million/$77.5 million ($224 million) 
  3. Thor - Ragnorak: $18 million/$26.5 million ($286 million) 
  4. Murder on the Orient Express: $16.5 million/$23.5 million ($112 million) 
  5. Daddy's Home 2: $12 million/$17.5 million ($70 million) 
  6. The Star: $10 million/$14.5 million ($26 million) 
  7. Wonder: $9 million/$12.5 million ($22 million) 
  8. A Bad Moms Christmas: $6 million/$9 million ($72 million) 
  9. Roman J. Israel, Esq: $3.5 million/$5.5 million ($7 million) 
  10. Polaroid: $2 million/$3.5 million 

12/1-12/3

  1. Coco: $29.5 million ($135 million) 
  2. Justice League: $21.5 million ($256 million) 
  3. Murder on the Orient Express: $8.5 million ($125 million) 
  4. Thor - Ragnorak: $8 million ($298 million) 
  5. Daddy's Home 2: $7 million ($80 million) 
  6. The Star: $6.5 million ($34 million) 
  7. A Bad Moms Christmas: $4 million ($78 million) 
  8. Wonder: $4 million ($27 million) 
  9. Roman Israel, Esq: $2 million ($10 million) 
  10. The Disaster Artist: $1.5 million 

12/8-12/10

  1. Coco: $22 million ($164 million) 
  2. Justice League: $14 million ($277 million) 
  3. Murder on the Orient Express: $7 million ($135 million) 
  4. Just Getting Started: $6 million 
  5. Thor - Ragnorak: $6 million ($307 million) 
  6. Daddy's Home 2: $5.5 million ($88 million) 
  7. The Star: $5 million ($40 million) 
  8. Wonder: $3 million ($31 million) 
  9. The Disaster Artist: $2.5 million 
  10. The Shape of Water: $2.5 million 

 

 

idk if Blade Runner is dropping 39% next weekend with a big TC loss and direct competition :lol: 

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3-day:

 

  1. Thor: Ragnarok - 126.4M
  2. A Bad Moms Christmas - 21.3M
  3. Jigsaw - 6.34M
  4. Boo 2 - 3.9M
  5. Happy Death Day - 2.65M
  6. Thank You for Your Service - 2.11M
  7. Geostorm - 1.99M
  8. Only the Brave - 1.79M
  9. Blade Runner - 1.78M
  10. The Foreigner - 1.64M
  11. It - 1.6M
  12. Let There be Light - 1.29M
  13. Suburbicon - 1.2M
  14. Victoria and Abdul - 1.19M
  15. American Made - 898k
  16. Kingsman - 784k
  17. The Mountain Between Us - 663k
  18. The Killing of a Sacred Deer - 594k
  19. Ninjago - 573k
  20. Same Kind of Different as Me - 519k
  21. The Snowman - 307k

 

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