Weekend Prediction thread 4/26-4/28 Play the Derby

[mahnamahna]

Spoiler

11/17-11/19

1. Justice League: $152 million 
2. Thor - Ragnorak: $23.5 million ($248 million) 
3. Daddy's Home 2: $16 million ($52 million) 
4. Murder on the Orient Express: $14 million ($50 million) 
5. The Star: $9 million
6. Wonder: $8 million 
7. A Bad Moms Christmas: $7 million ($51 million) 
8. Lady Bird: $3.5 million ($5 million) 
9. Jigsaw: $1.25 million ($36 million) 
10. Blade Runner 2049: $1 million ($89 million) 

11/22-11/26

1. Justice League: $63 million/$94 million ($270 million)
2. Coco: $53.5 million/$79 million 
3. Thor - Ragnorak: $18 million/$27 million ($281 million) 
4. Daddy's Home 2: $13 million/$19.5 million ($75 million) 
5. Murder on the Orient Express: $11 million/$16 million ($69 million) 
6. The Star: $10 million/$14.5 million ($26 million) 
7. Wonder: $7 million/$10.5 million ($20 million) 
8. A Bad Moms Christmas: $6 million/$9.5 million ($63 million) 
9. Lady Bird: $4.5 million/$6.5 million ($13 million) 
10. Darkest Hour: $1 million/$1.5 million 

12/1-12/3

1. Justice League: $26.5 million ($309 million) 
2. Coco: $25 million ($112 million) 
3. Thor - Ragnorak: $8 million ($293 million) 
4. Daddy's Home 2: $7 million ($85 million) 
5. The Star: $6.5 million ($34 million) 
6. Murder on the Orient Express: $5.5 million ($77 million) 
7. A Bad Moms Christmas: $3.75 million ($68 million) 
8. Wonder: $3 million ($24 million) 
9. Lady Bird: $2.75 million ($17 million) 
10. The Disaster Artist: $1 million

12/8-12/10

1. Coco: $18.5 million ($136 million) 
2. Justice League: $17.5 million ($335 million)
3. Thor - Ragnorak: $6.5 million ($303 million) 
4. Daddy's Home 2: $6 million ($93 million) 
5. The Star: $6 million ($42 million) 
6. Murder on the Orient Express: $4.25 million ($84 million) 
7. Just Getting Started: $4 million
8. Lady Bird: $3.5 million ($21 million) 
9. The Disaster Artist: $3 million ($5 million)
10. A Bad Moms Christmas: $3 million ($73 million) 

12/15-12/17

1. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $210.5 million 
2. Ferdinand: $16 million 
3. Coco: $9.5 million ($149 million) 
4. Justice League: $5 million ($343 million) 
5. Daddy's Home 2: $3.5 million ($98 million) 
6. The Star: $3.5 million ($46 million) 
7. Lady Bird: $2 million ($24 million) 
8. The Disaster Artist: $1.75 million ($7 million) 
9. A Bad Moms Christmas: $1.5 million ($75 million) 
10. Just Getting Started: $1.5 million ($6 million) 

12/22-12/25

1. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $106.5 million/$148 million ($464 million) 
2. Pitch Perfect 3: $33 million/$47 million 
3. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $23 million/$39 million ($55 million) 
4. The Greatest Showman: $19 million/$30.5 million ($43 million) 
5. Ferdinand: $18 million/$29 million ($63 million) 
6. Coco: $11 million/$16.5 million ($176 million) 
7. Downsizing: $9 million/$13 million 
8. The Shape of Water: $6.5 million/$10 million ($16 million) 
9. Father Figures: $6 million/$8.5 million 
10. The Disaster Artist: $4.5 million/$6 million ($16 million) 
11. Justice League: $4 million/$5.75 million ($353 million) 
12. Lady Bird: $3.5 million/$4.75 million ($32 million) 
13. Daddy's Home 2: $3 million/$4.5 million ($105 million) 
14. The Star: $2.5 million/$4.5 million ($53 million) 
15. A Bad Moms Christmas: $1 million/$1.75 million ($78 million) 

12/29-1/1

1. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $63 million/$89 million ($616 million) 
2. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $26 million/$37 million ($115 million) 
3. Pitch Perfect 3: $24 million/$32 million ($103 million) 
4. The Greatest Showman: $20 million/$27 million ($89 million) 
5. Ferdinand: $18.5 million/$26 million ($107 million) 
6. Coco: $12.5 million/$17 million ($205 million) 
7. Downsizing: $7.5 million/$10 million ($31 million) 
8. The Shape of Water: $6 million/$8 million ($30 million) 
9. The Disaster Artist: $4 million/$5 million ($25 million) 
10. Father Figures: $3.75 million/$4.5 million ($18 million) 
11. Justice League: $3 million/$4 million ($360 million) 
12. Lady Bird: $3 million/$4 million ($39 million) 
13. Daddy's Home 2: $1.75 million/$2.5 million ($110 million) 
14. The Star: $1.25 million/$1.75 million ($56 million) 
15. A Bad Moms Christmas: $0.5 million/$0.75 million ($79 million) 

1/5-1/7

1. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $29.5 million ($661 million) 
2. Insidious - The Last Key: $17 million 
3. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $12 million ($133 million) 
4. Pitch Perfect 3: $11 million ($120 million) 
5. The Greatest Showman: $9.5 million ($102 million) 
6. Ferdinand: $9 million ($119 million) 
7. Coco: $6.5 million ($213 million) 
8. Downsizing: $3.5 million ($36 million) 
9. The Shape of Water: $3.5 million ($35 million) 
10. The Disaster Artist: $2.5 million ($28 million) 
11. Father Figures: $2 million ($21 million) 
12. Lady Bird: $1.75 million ($41 million) 

1/12-1/15

1. Paddington 2: $21.5 million/$30 million 
2. The Post: $20 million/$25 million ($29 million) 
3. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $17 million/$23.5 million ($692 million) 
4. Proud Mary: $16 million/$19.5 million
5. The Commuter: $12 million/$14.5 million 
6. Jumani - Welcome to the Jungle: $6 million/$8.5 million ($144 million) 
7. Insidious - The Last Key: $5.5 million/$6.5 million ($26 million) 
8. Pitch Perfect 3: $5 million/$6 million ($128 million) 
9. The Greatest Showman: $4 million/$5.5 million ($109 million)  
10. Ferdinand: $4 million/$5.5 million ($126 million) 

 

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

2 hours ago, filmlover said:

@WrathOfHan @That One Guy Three Billboards is gonna be adding only 12 theaters next weekend for 16 total so it's gonna need to score another $55K+ PTA to achieve the numbers you guys are predicting.

Mojo says 12 cities, not necessarily only 12 theaters

[YM!]

Even though hype seems kind of low for JL, I’m still can see under $140M OW but I can’t see over $170M OW

 

Also I see OE in a hour.

[dxmatrixdt]

my predictions for this weekend.  I have no idea what to expect with The Star and Wonder.  Also, I have no idea how Express will hold.  I guessed at the upcoming theater losses when calculating holdovers outside the top 10, and then I added in the projected weekday numbers to the cumulative total.

Movies in bold are Warner Bros and could potentially receive over 100K in drive in double features with Justice League.  They stopped tracking Wonder Woman, but not Dunkirk!!!

 

NEW - Justice League - 140.00 - 140.00

(-60.0%) - Thor 2 - 22.80 - 249.56

NEW - The Star - 13.50 - 13.50

NEW - Wonder - 13.50 - 13.50

(-56.2%) - Daddy's Home 2 - 13.00 - 50.50

(-54.7%) - Murder on the Orient Express - 13.00 - 50.75

(-39.0%) - Bad Moms Christmas - 7.00 - 51.00

(-58.4%) - Jigsaw - 1.424 - 36.83

(-66.0%) - Boo 2! - 0.680 - 47.00

(-54.1%) - Blade Runner 2049 - 0.670 - 89.29

(-69.5%) - Geostorm - 0.500 - 32.74

(-43.9%) - Lego Ninjago - 0.450 - 59.13

(-41.0%) - Victoria and Abdul - 0.400 - 21.89

(-70.8%) - Happy Death Day - 0.370 - 55.63

(-56.5%) - The Foreigner - 0.34 - 34.13

(-73.3%) - Only the Brave - 0.25 - 17.67

(-46.5%) - American Made - 0.24 - 51.18

(-42.6%) - Kingsman 2 - 0.24 - 99.79

(-54.8%) - My Little Pony - 0.23 - 21.83

(-54.9%) - It - 0.20 - 326.97

(-79.6%) - Thank You for Your Service - 0.174 - 9.59

(-66.0%) - Marshall - 0.140 - 8.75

(-60.3%) - Mountain Between Us - 0.115 - 29.69

Edited November 14, 2017 by Matrix4You

[stripe]

JL - 145M

Thor3 - 25M

Wonder - 16M

DH2 - 14M

Orient Express - 14M

Star - 12M

BM2 - 7.5M

Lady Bird - 2.5M

Jigsaw - 1.5M

BR2049 - 0.8M

 

Top 10 - 238M

 

Next weekend (3day / 5day)

Coco - 60M / 85M

JL - 55M / 80M

Thor3 - 15M / 22M

Wonder - 10M / 14M

DH2 - 8.5M / 11M

Star - 8M / 11M

Express - 8M / 10.5M

BM2 - 5M / 6.5M

 

Top 8 - 177M / 240M

 

Lady Bird and other limited releases, impossible to know until theater counts and expansions are announced

 

 

[OdinSon2k14]

It looks like Thor will make it to 300M, if these predictions are accurate. I figure it needed 300+ domestically, to go along with what looks like 500+ overseas. Should finish low to mid 800's. 

 

Thor joins Guardians, as the only MCU franchises to do north of 800M without Robert Downey Jr or Spider-Man. Cap got 714.

Edited November 14, 2017 by OdinSon2k14

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, OdinSon2k14 said:

It looks like Thor will make it to 300M, if these predictions are accurate. I figure it needed 300+ domestically, to go along with what looks like 500+ overseas. Should finish low to mid 800's. 

 

Thor joins Guardians, as the only MCU franchises to do north of 800M without Robert Downey Jr or Spider-Man. Cap got 714.

It’s impressive that Thor reached there. I’d say the next MCU movie with that shot is Captain Marvel. I see Panther doing something like $300M DOM/$300M OS.

[TwoMisfits]

How's about...

Justice League - above almost everyone's predicts so far (sorry, going over $172M would be tough knowing people will hold for the holiday, but let's go with $150M+ for optimism:)...

Wonder - above everyone's predicts so far (or above $20M)

The Star - above everyone's predicts so far (or above $13.5M)

 

This post is "screw all the tracking...let's see some optimism for premier family movies" - we haven't had any good ones in SO long (unless Thor counts...which I guess it kinda does:)...

[LaughingEvans]

JL - 121.5

T:R - 26.8

Wonder - 11.4

[OdinSon2k14]

Na, Thor's a pg-13-nish movie. Guardians 2, yeah.

[YM!]

Just now, OdinSon2k14 said:

Na, Thor's a pg-13-nish movie. Guardians 2, yeah.

Both attracted a lot of families.

[OdinSon2k14]

Wait...I dunno...Thor has opened in just about all the territories, yet it sits at 440 overseas. Even with China approaching 100M, and SK generating 30M.

 

Its gonna need some serious legs to get 500M. I'm going to amend my final haul to the upper 700's...for now. Let's see how JL impacts it.

[YM!]

Just now, OdinSon2k14 said:

Wait...I dunno...Thor has opened in just about all the territories, yet it sits at 440 overseas. Even with China approaching 100M, and SK generating 30M.

 

Its gonna need some serious legs to get 500M. I'm going to amend my final haul to the upper 700's...for now. Let's see how JL impacts it.

It’ll get there. Even if it JL trucks it it’ll end with $500M OS.

[Blankments]

On 11/10/2017 at 10:10 PM, Blankments said:

The Foreigner, Geostorm, The Snowman, Suburbicon, and Only the Brave are gone.

Jigsaw, Boo 2! A Madea Halloween, Victoria and Abdul, and Happy Death Day are gone.

 

Justice League - 17/10 (2D/3D) total 27 (debut)

Thor: Ragnarok - 15/2 (2D/3D) total 17 (down 15)

Daddy's Home 2 - 14 (down 1)

Murder on the Orient Express - 14 (down 1)

The Star - 11 (debut)

Wonder - 11 (debut)

A Bad Moms Christmas - 9 (down 1)
Let There Be Light - 3 (down 1)

Thank You For Your Service - 3 (down 2)
Marshall - 1 (down 3)

[dxmatrixdt]

(+86%) - Lady Bird - 2.23 - 4.40

(-57.2%) - Blade Runner 2049 - 0.625 - 89.30

(-44.4%) - Let there be Light - 0.620 - 7.00

(-50.1%) - LEGO Ninjago - 0.400 - 59.08

(-30.6%) - Killing of Sacred Deer - 0.320 - 2.09

(-60.2%) - Victoria and Abdul - 0.270 - 21.72

(-80.3%) - Happy Death Day - 0.250 - 55.44

(-76.0%) - Only the Brave - 0.225 - 17.64

(-57,4%) - Kingsman - 0.220 - 99.77

(-53.2%) - American Made - 0.210 - 51.13

(-73.1%) - The Foreigner - 0.210 - 33.98

(-49.1%) - Marshall - 0.210 - 8.83

(-58.7%) - My Little Pony - 0.210 - 21.82

(-57.1%) - It - 0.19 - 326.94

(-54.1%) - Mountain Between Us - 0.133 - 29.69

(-84.8%) - Thank You For Your Service - 0.130 - 9.48

(-63.6%) - Same Kind of Different As Me - 0.067 - 6.30

[Dandeak2000]

next two weekends

 

17th - 19th November 2017

 

1. Justice League $121.5

2. Thor: Ragnarok $28.6/$254.5

3. Daddy's Home 2 $14.7/$56.4

4. Murder on the Orient Express $14.4/$55.3

5. The Star $11.3

6. Wonder $10.1

7. A Bad Moms Christmas $6.5/$50

8. Lady Bird $2.6/$3.7

9. Jigsaw $1.4/$36.3

10. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri $1.3/$1.5

 

24th - 26th November 2017

 

1. Coco $55/$71.5

2. Justice League $48.6/$200

3. Thor: Ragnarok $17.2/$281

4. Murder on the Orient Express $9/$70

5. Daddy's Home 2 $8.8/$70.5

6. The Star $6/$21

7. Wonder $5.8/$20

8. A Bad Moms Christmas $4.6/$57.8

9. Roman J Israel Esq. $4.5/$4.7

10. Lady Bird $2/$7.5

 

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, Mike Hunt said:

next two weekends

 

17th - 19th November 2017

 

1. Justice League $121.5

2. Thor: Ragnarok $28.6/$254.5

3. Daddy's Home 2 $14.7/$56.4

4. Murder on the Orient Express $14.4/$55.3

5. The Star $11.3

6. Wonder $10.1

7. A Bad Moms Christmas $6.5/$50

8. Lady Bird $2.6/$3.7

9. Jigsaw $1.4/$36.3

10. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri $1.3/$1.5

 

24th - 26th November 2017

 

1. Coco $55/$71.5

2. Justice League $48.6/$200

3. Thor: Ragnarok $17.2/$281

4. Murder on the Orient Express $9/$70

5. Daddy's Home 2 $8.8/$70.5

6. The Star $6/$21

7. Wonder $5.8/$20

8. A Bad Moms Christmas $4.6/$57.8

9. Roman J Israel Esq. $4.5/$4.7

10. Lady Bird $2/$7.5

 

Why would Lady Bird decrease next week when it'll be gaining at least 1k theaters?

[Ithil]

Lady Bird feels like it'll be one of the more successful Oscar films this year, lot of buzz and it's an easy film to sell to audiences unlike some awards films.

[mahnamahna]

Moved a revised predict below. 

Edited November 22, 2017 by mahnamahna

[BenedictL11]

4 hours ago, mahnamahna said:

  Hide contents

11/22-11/26

1. Coco: $48.5 million/$70 million
2. Justice League: $46.5 million/$70 million ($180 million) 
3. Wonder: $21 million/$29.5 million ($61 million)
4. Thor - Ragnorak: $17 million/$24.5 million ($276 million) 
5. Daddy's Home 2: $11.5 million/$17.5 million ($70 million) 
6. Murder on the Orient Express: $10.5 million/$15 million ($70 million) 
7. The Star: $9.5 million/$13.5 million ($25 million) 
8. Lady Bird: $6.5 million/$9 million ($14 million) 
9. A Bad Moms Christmas: $6 million/$8.5 million ($61 million) 
10. Three Billboards Outside Ebbings, MO: $1.5 million/$2.25 million ($4 million)

12/1-12/3

1. Coco: $22.5 million ($99 million) 
2. Justice League: $20 million ($211 million) 
3. Wonder: $11 million ($76 million) 
4. Thor - Ragnorak: $8 million ($288 million) 
5. Daddy's Home 2: $6.5 million ($79 million) 
6. The Star: $6 million ($33 million) 
7. Murder on the Orient Express: $5.5 million ($78 million) 
8. Lady Bird: $4 million ($20 million) 
9. A Bad Moms Christmas: $4 million ($67 million) 
10. The Disaster Artist: $1.5 million 

12/8-12/10

1. Coco: $16.5 million ($120 million)
2. Justice League: $11 million ($227 million)
3. Wonder: $8.5 million ($88 million)
4. Thor - Ragnorak: $6.5 million ($298 million)
5. Daddy's Home 2: $5.5 million ($87 million)
6. The Star: $5 million ($39 million)
7. Just Getting Started: $4.5 million 
8. Murder on the Orient Express: $4 million ($84 million)
9. Lady Bird: $3.5 million ($25 million)
10. The Disaster Artist: $3.5 million ($6 million) 
11. A Bad Moms Christmas: $3 million ($72 million) 
12. The Shape of Water: $2 million ($3 million) 

 

Wonder will not drop that big. I'm thinking it will be more in like with Wreck-It-Ralph where it had to face PG movie competition that combined to just as much as Coco.