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Weekend Prediction thread 4/19-4/21 Play the Derby

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new - Pitch Perfect 2 - 51.91 - 51.91

new - Mad Max - 45.95 - 45.95

-50.35% - Avengers - 38.60 - 372.17

-59% - Hot Pursuit - 5.71 - 23.71

-38% - Age of Adaline - 3.63 - 37.64

-34% - Paul Blart 2- 3.53 - 62.95

-41% - Furious 7 - 3.20 - 343.43

-20% - Ex Machina - 2.81 - 20.07

-9% - Home - 2.79 - 165.76

-47% - Woman in Gold - 0.92 - 28.76

-55% - Cinderella - 0.76 - 197.39

-59% - Unfriended - 0.59 - 32.23

-60% - Get Hard - 0.42 - 88.67

-71% - the Longest Ride - 0.40 - 36.19

-48% - Insurgent - 0.40 - 128.32

-73% - Monkey Kingdom - 0.34 - 15.23

 

4-day weekend estimates

new - Tomorrowland - 57.40 - 57.40

new - Poltergeist - 41.02 - 41.02

-21% - Avengers - 30.56 - 416.92

-35% - Mad Max - 29.79 - 91.90

-49.8% - Pitch Perfect 2 - 26.06 - 94.96

-41% - Hot Pursuit - 3.37 - 29.28

+0% - Ex Machina - 2.81 - 24.41

-34% - Age of Adaline - 2.39 - 41.50

-16% - Home - 2.33 - 168.77

-37% - Paul Blart 2 - 2.23 - 66.11

-33% - Furious 7 - 2.15 - 346.78

-1% - Woman in Gold - 0.91 - 30.11

-4% - Cinderella - 0.73 - 198.34

+2% - Get Hard - 0.43 - 89.28

-2.5% - Insurgent - 0.39 - 128.85

-52.5% - Unfriended - 0.28 - 32.76

-26.5% - Monkey Kingdom - 0.25 - 15.64

-40% - The Longest Ride - 0.24 - 36.60

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Get Hard and Seymour: An Introduction are gone. Drive-in at home (not included) is Cinderella and Avengers: Age of Ultron.

Heading back home so time to switch the theater selection. The D Train, Cinderella, Clouds of Sils Maria, and The Longest Ride are gone. Drive-in, which is Avengers: Age of Ultron and Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 will now be counted.

 

Avengers: Age of Ultron - 23/14/4 (2D/IMAX 3D) total 41 (up 1)
Mad Max: Fury Road - 17/3/14/2 (2D/2D with D-BOX/3D/3D with D-BOX) total 36 (debut)
Pitch Perfect 2 - 34 (debut)
Hot Pursuit - 17 (up 6)
Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 - 17 (up 8)
The Age of Adaline - 15 (up 5)
Furious 7 - 14 (down 1)
Unfriended - 7 (up 4)
Where Hope Grows - 6 (debut)
Home - 5 (down 1)
Woman in Gold - 5 (return)
Ex Machina - 3 (down 7)
Little Boy - 3 (up 2)
Get Hard - 1 (return)
Monkey Kingdom - 1 (down 2)
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In comparison to the past 4 years nothing really interesting to predict it's like predicting Memorial Day weekend 2010. Anyway next weekends projections(openers only and 4-day totals): Tomorrowland:55.1 million 3-day/74.9 million 4-day, Poltergeist:33.2 million 3-day/40 million 4-day.

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3-day:

 

Poltergeist  -  28M

Tomorrowland  -  41M

_______________________________

 

Pitch Perfect 2  -56%

Mad Max: Fury Road  -49%

Avengers: Age of Ultron  -38%

Why would PP2 drop 56% over a holiday weekend when there's no new competition? Same for MM - Tomorrowland is PG so not the same demo? And Avengers 2 should drop a little softer than than.

 

With how low Tomorrowland and Poltergeist are expected to open, I'd say the top 3 for this week should all drop less than 40% over the 3-day. 

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5/22

1. Tomorrowland: $55 million/$70 million

2. PP2: $40 million/$48 million ($136 million)

3. Poltergeist: $34 million/$40 million

4. Avengers 2: $28 million/$33.5 million ($415 million)

5. Mad Max: $23 million/$27.5 million ($79 million)

 

You realize with that total for mad max its only making about 7-8m weekdays, unless it drops 80% monday I dont see that happening!

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4 Day weekend

 

1.TomorrowLand-44 million/53 million

2.Pitch Perfect 2-36 million/46 million

3.Poltergeist-18 million/26 million

4.Mad Max-Fury Road-18 million/24 million

5.Avengers-Age of Ultron- 17 million/21 million

 

 

I expect Pitch Perfect 2 to have around or slightly above a 50 percent drop. While I think Fury Road will have a 50 plus drop. Since I feel buzz and hype is why it did as well as it did opening weekend. Now that it's gone and all the fan-boys saw it, well it's going to have bigger drops then holds.

Edited by gb0708
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