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Weekend Prediction thread 4/19-4/21 Play the Derby

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Why would PP2 drop 56% over a holiday weekend when there's no new competition? Same for MM - Tomorrowland is PG so not the same demo? And Avengers 2 should drop a little softer than than.

 

With how low Tomorrowland and Poltergeist are expected to open, I'd say the top 3 for this week should all drop less than 40% over the 3-day. 

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Aloha  -  12M

San Andreas  -  43M

_________________________________

 

Tomorrowland  -56%

Pitch Perfect 2  -57%

Mad Max: Fury Road  -49%

Poltergeist  -61%

Avengers: Age of Ultron  -52%

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I think we're in for another underwhelming weekend. It seems to me like people are just waiting for Jurassic World to open and these new films are already afterthoughts. Aloha has flop written all over it and San Andreas looks even more unappealing than Hercules, IMO (it has no competition, so it will naturally open higher. Though I don't think it will be that much higher). 

 

1) San Andreas - U$32.6M

2) Pitch Perfect 2 - U$17.1M (-44%) 

3) Tomorrowland - U$15M (-54%)

4) Aloha - U$13.3M

5) Mad Max: Fury Road - U$13M (-47%)

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How much would San Andreas have to make to be considered a success?

It only cost 125M apparently, and it will be a hit overseas. So anything less than 30M people will look at as a miss, anything 30-40M will be considered "fine" and anything over 40M will be a "hit".
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  1. San Andreas - 42.3M
  2. Tomorrowland - 14.9M
  3. Max Max: Fury Road - 10.8M
  4. Pitch Perfect 2 - 10.5M
  5. Aloha - 8.2M
  6. Avengers: Age of Ultron - 7.8M
  7. Poltergeist - 7.5M
  8. Far from the Madding Crowd - 2.4M
  9. Hot Pursuit - 2.0M
  10. Furious 7 - 1.2M
  11. Home - 1.1M
  12. Ex Machina - 0.9M

Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 - 0.8M

The Age of Adaline - 0.5M

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1. San Andreas - $41.3m

2. Tomorrowland - $17.4m

3. Pitch Perfect 2 - $16.8m

4. Mad Max: Fury Road - $14.5m

5. Aloha - $12.7m

6. Avengers: Age of Ultron - $12.2m

7. Poltergeist - $9.5m

8. Hot Pursuit - $2m

9. Far From The Madding Crowd - $1.6m

10. Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 - $1.2m

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Unfriended, Ex Machina, Little Boy, and Get Hard are gone. Drive-in is Tomorrowland and Avengers: Age of Ultron.

Furious 7 and Monkey Kingdom are gone. Drive-in is Pitch Perfect 2 and Tomorrowland.

 

San Andreas - 18/3/16/2/2 (2D/2D with D-BOX/3D/3D with D-BOX/IMAX 3D) total 41 (debut)
Tomorrowland - 28/3 (2D/IMAX) total 31 (down 3)
Poltergeist - 19/9 (2D/3D) total 28 (down 6)
Pitch Perfect 2 - 26 (down 8)
Mad Max: Fury Road - 19/5 (2D/3D) total 24 (down 11)
Aloha - 21 (debut)
Avengers: Age of Ultron - 15/3 (2D/3D) total 18 (down 6)
Hot Pursuit - 8 (down 5)
Home - 5 (up 2)
The Age of Adaline - 3 (down 5)
Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 - 3 (down 6)
Woman in Gold - 3 (up 1)
Where Hope Grows - 2 (down 1)
Edited by Blankments
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