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Weekend Prediction thread (7/4-7/7|Play the Derby)

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Why is everyone expecting a good hold for GitS? It doesn't have the reviews, it doesn't have the WOM, GA doesn't give a shit about manga, who wanted to see it already saw it, zero repeat business value. 

Edited by Valonqar
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4 hours ago, Valonqar said:

Why is everyone expecting a good hold for GitS? It doesn't have the reviews, it doesn't have the WOM, GA doesn't give a shit about manga, who wanted to see it already saw it, zero repeat business value. 

 

Yeah changed my prediction because of it. I have it now droping below PR next weekend.

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Smurf 15

Going in Style 12

 

Sony is killing another franchise obviously. I don't get why they have decided to release Smurf 3 a week after BB. Earlier this year they subduely released Underworld on the first week of the year and RE three weeks later which aimed to the same audience and after XXX3. What were they thinking?

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I honestly think Smurfs could have done decently well (high 20's opening) had Sony not screwed up its release date and marketing. Honestly, it should have released on the 21st, which would put some distance between it and Boss Baby, and also would give it 2 full weeks before guardians. 

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11 hours ago, DAJK said:

I honestly think Smurfs could have done decently well (high 20's opening) had Sony not screwed up its release date and marketing. Honestly, it should have released on the 21st, which would put some distance between it and Boss Baby, and also would give it 2 full weeks before guardians. 

 

Agree - the release date was nuts.  I understand wanting traditional Spring Break (the week before Easter) and picking up all those week days...but Easter isn't Christmas and Sony had to see how Dreamworks animated original stuff had been overperforming lately.  They had to have 2-3 weeks between animated movies to give them room to breathe.  They could actually have opened against any major adult-oriented movie and been okay...but they chose this path.

 

It's a shame, b/c if my kids had gotten interested in this, I would have taken them (since I like the "where are the girl Smurfs" concept)...but they are still talking Boss Baby (which I haven't taken them to) b/c the ads were better and more prevalent...and it's still new in their minds...and I'm not gonna shell out to take the kids when they aren't demanding it, when discount ticket codes are fewer this week and their interest is less (I figure this one will hit the cheap theater for me to take them for $2, if I really feel motivated, in May:)...

 

It's a perfect bad storm opening for Smurfs, EXCEPT for having the traditional spring break 9 days to come...

Edited by TwoMisfits
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3 hours ago, YourMother said:

Beast: 28%

Baby: 22.2%

Smurfs: 4.7%

GITS: 4.4%

F8: 4.2%

 

Wrong thread.

Are these pre-sale numbers this week?

 

If so, I have the feeling that Smurf is gonna do The Pirates number (~12 M) and Going in Style has an outside to open north of Smurf! 

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Animated Smurfs will no doubt kill Sony's idea of animated Ghostbusters too. 

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1. BatB $31 million

2. BB $29 million

3. Smurfs $18 million

4. Going in Style $9 million

5. PR $7 million

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3 minutes ago, RiffRanger said:

1. BatB $31 million

2. BB $29 million

3. Smurfs $18 million

4. Going in Style $9 million

5. PR $7 million

 

This is not happening. That would be incredible to see though. That would be a couple million ahead of the 4th weekend of JURASSIC WORLD!

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1 hour ago, JB33 said:

 

This is not happening. That would be incredible to see though. That would be a couple million ahead of the 4th weekend of JURASSIC WORLD!

 

I'm still new here; I want to make a name for myself.  This is going to be a boring weekend and I need to hope for a surprise.  Of course, I could always predict Smurfs and/or Going in Style being surprisingly low.

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13 minutes ago, RiffRanger said:

 

I'm still new here; I want to make a name for myself.  This is going to be a boring weekend and I need to hope for a surprise.  Of course, I could always predict Smurfs and/or Going in Style being surprisingly low.

 

Fair enough. I hope you're right!

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6 hours ago, Krissykins said:

Animated Smurfs will no doubt kill Sony's idea of animated Ghostbusters too. 

 

I think if all three Sony animated films flop, it could spell the end for Sony Pictures Animation,

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2 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

 

I think if all three Sony animated films flop, it could spell the end for Sony Pictures Animation,

With it's $60M budget, Smurfs will luckily break even. Emoji seems likely to do $75M-$130M domestic and about $200M-$250M worldwide. The Star, due to being a Christmas movie, I think has a possibility of $150M domestic due to holidays, and even if it flops OS it's outsourced. SPA's future depends on their 2018 slate.

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43 minutes ago, johnboy3434 said:

My weekend prediction for Power Rangers is $8.27M, or a 41.8% drop.

 

Like I said on Rangerboard, you've been fairly accurate with your predictions but a little bit low, so your number is encouraging.  Especially since I'm thinking it will be lower.

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The Boss Baby - $27.6m

Beauty and the Beast - $24.1m

Smurfs - $15.5m

Ghost in the Shell - $7.8m

Going in Style - $7.5m

Power Rangers - $6.5m

Kong - $5m

Get Out - $3.8m

Logan - $3.7m

The Case for Christ - $3.7m

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18 minutes ago, YourMother said:

With it's $60M budget, Smurfs will luckily break even. Emoji seems likely to do $75M-$130M domestic and about $200M-$250M worldwide. The Star, due to being a Christmas movie, I think has a possibility of $150M domestic due to holidays, and even if it flops OS it's outsourced. SPA's future depends on their 2018 slate.

 

The Star won't hit $150m. It'll be lucky to do $100-110m domestic. 

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5 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

 

The Star won't hit $150m. It'll be lucky to do $100-110m domestic. 

That's what I'm thinking to tbh, but no one thought Trolls would do $150M domestic, let alone $100M. My prediction for The Star is $26M/$115M. However I think 2018 will determine SPA's future.

Edited by YourMother
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They could always just make 10 more Hotel Transylvania films if they wanted.

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