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Weekend Prediction thread 3/29-3/31 Play the Derby

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4 hours ago, the beast said:

7/21-7/23

 

1. Dunkirk - $47M / $50M

2. Apes 3 - $27.5M

3. Girls Trip - $25M

4. SMH - $23.5M

5. Valerian - $23M

Valerian ain't gonna open 92% as good as Girls Trip. Reviews and Marketing aren't very good for this one.

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Dunkirk - With all great reviews it is getting and Nolan, it should cross at least $40 million. I can't wait to see the movie.

 

Girls Trip - This is definitely a wildcard. I'll guess $25 million. And to people who say this is a movie "targeting African Americans". Are you saying this movie is only for black people? Why wouldn't the studio want to reach as why an audience as possible. It just doesn't make sense to me.

 

In Valerian's case, I'm starting to think they should have promoted Rihanna's role a lot more. I think it would've done way more than what it is projected opening weekend. I'm going with $28 million.

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17 minutes ago, cmbbox2390 said:

Dunkirk - With all great reviews it is getting and Nolan, it should cross at least $40 million. I can't wait to see the movie.

 

Girls Trip - This is definitely a wildcard. I'll guess $25 million. And to people who say this is a movie "targeting African Americans". Are you saying this movie is only for black people? Why wouldn't the studio want to reach as why an audience as possible. It just doesn't make sense to me.

 

In Valerian's case, I'm starting to think they should have promoted Rihanna's role a lot more. I think it would've done way more than what it is projected opening weekend. I'm going with $28 million.

A lot of America unfortunately automatically thinks a movie with black leads=movie for black people. It doesn't help that the trailers make the film's leads look a bit stereotypical. It's why I was questioning how wide it appeals the other day, but presales have put that worry to rest for me.

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1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

A lot of America unfortunately automatically thinks a movie with black leads=movie for black people. It doesn't help that the trailers make the film's leads look a bit stereotypical. It's why I was questioning how wide it appeals the other day, but presales have put that worry to rest for me.

The biggest thing Girls Trip has going for it, above all else, is that the previews make it look legitimately funny ("...so they ain't fuckin' in Guatemala?" :lol:). I maintain that the reason the other comedies underperformed or tanked this summer was because they didn't look funny (considering the reviews that Baywatch, The House, etc. were greeted with, it was clear the marketing wasn't hiding any good bits either).

Edited by filmlover
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4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The biggest thing Girls Trip has going for it, above all else, is that the previews make it look legitimately funny ("...so they ain't fuckin' in Guatemala?" :lol:). I maintain that the reason the other comedies underperformed or tanked this summer was because they didn't look funny (considering the reviews that Baywatch, The House, etc. were greeted with, it was clear the marketing wasn't hiding any good bits either).

 

Girls Trip should do great domestic but I suspect it'll do okay to mediocre business OS simply because African American comedies don't really do that well. Baywatch while a flop domestic has done okay OS due to the brand being well known especially in Germany and the UK. 

Edited by Jonwo
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Just now, Jonwo said:

 

Girls Trip should do great domestic but I suspect it'll do okay business OS simply because African American comedies don't really do that well. Baywatch while a flop domestic has done okay OS due to the brand being well known especially in Germany and the UK. 

Kind of a "no shit Sherlock" there considering that's the only part of the world where David Hasselhoff is considered an A-lister. :lol:

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"These characters are too stereotypical for the film to break out" has always seemed to me like code for "the film is 'too black' for mainstream America." 

Let's not pretend that we don't live in a world in which comedies with so-called stereotypical white people are constantly released and never deemed 'too stereotypical to have wide appeal.' There is always that double standard: stereotypically "white" comedies' potential to be huge hits is never analyzed using "the characters might be too stereotypical to be a huge hit." People of color on the other hand...

Thing is that there is enough black people in the US to make this film a smash if not a single white person went to see it (scared away by "stereotypical" black people). 

That being said, if a comedy is truly perceived as funny by a lot of people, regardless of their color, the audience will most likely embrace the film.

You don't get any more "stereotypical" than My Big Fat Greek Wedding, and we all know how that turned out.

Not saying that this is gonna do a MBFGW, obviously, but I would not worry about Girls Trip 's characters scaring non-blacks away.

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So for at least a month now Cinemark has been cross-promoting Valerian with its member loyalty program, showing ads for the the program with clips from the film in front of every screening of every movie. My local Cinemark just posted their weekend showtimes and they're only giving Valerian four shows a day. Judging by the spacing of the times they're all in the same auditorium, meaning they're giving it one out of fifteen auditoriums. Though to be fair Girls Trip is also getting four showtimes with one auditorium, but that's not a $100m+ would-be-blockbuster that the chain has an ad partnership with. Dunkirk has nine showtimes in two auditoriums (one of which is the XD room). 

 

At my next-closest multiplex, also a Cinemark but in a more urban area, Valerian still only has four shows in a single theatre while Girls Trip is getting eight shows from two auditoriums.

Edited by Xillix
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6 hours ago, cmbbox2390 said:

Dunkirk - With all great reviews it is getting and Nolan, it should cross at least $40 million. I can't wait to see the movie.

 

Girls Trip - This is definitely a wildcard. I'll guess $25 million. And to people who say this is a movie "targeting African Americans". Are you saying this movie is only for black people? Why wouldn't the studio want to reach as why an audience as possible. It just doesn't make sense to me.

 

In Valerian's case, I'm starting to think they should have promoted Rihanna's role a lot more. I think it would've done way more than what it is projected opening weekend. I'm going with $28 million.

Are you serious? Why that high for Valerian?

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9 hours ago, Xillix said:

So for at least a month now Cinemark has been cross-promoting Valerian with its member loyalty program, showing ads for the the program with clips from the film in front of every screening of every movie. My local Cinemark just posted their weekend showtimes and they're only giving Valerian four shows a day. Judging by the spacing of the times they're all in the same auditorium, meaning they're giving it one out of fifteen auditoriums. Though to be fair Girls Trip is also getting four showtimes with one auditorium, but that's not a $100m+ would-be-blockbuster that the chain has an ad partnership with. Dunkirk has nine showtimes in two auditoriums (one of which is the XD room). 

 

At my next-closest multiplex, also a Cinemark but in a more urban area, Valerian still only has four shows in a single theatre while Girls Trip is getting eight shows from two auditoriums.

My theater is also a Cinemark that has had Valerian ads running before movies for the last 2+ months now and they're not booking either screen in any of the largest auditoriums. If that doesn't tell you what its prospects are, I don't know what does.

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21st - 23rd July 2017

 

1. Dunkirk $45

2. War for the Planet of the Apes $28.5/$100

3. Spider-Man: Homecoming $22.6/$245

4. Girls Trip $20

5. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets $17.5 

6. Despicable Me 3 $10.1/$205

7. Baby Driver $5.5/$81

8. The Big Sick $5/$23

9. Wonder Woman $4.5/$388

10. Wish Upon $2.8/$10

 

Spoiler

28th - 30th July 2017

 

1. The Emoji Movie $30

2. Atomic Blonde $28.5

3. Dunkirk $25/$85

4. War for the Planet of the Apes $16/$125

5. Spider-Man: Homecoming $12/$264

6. Girls Trip $10/$37

7. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets $8/$30

8. Despicable Me 3 $6/$215

9. Baby Driver $4/$87

10. The Big Sick $3.5/$28.5

 

4th - 6th August 2017

 

1. The Dark Tower $30

2. The Emoji Movie $15/$53

3. Atomic Blonde $14/$50

4. Dunkirk $13.5/$105

5. Detroit $12.5

6. War for the Planet of the Apes $10/$142

7. Spider-Man: Homecoming $7/$275

8. Girls Trip $5.5/$46

9. Kidnap $5

10. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets $4/$36

 

11th - 13th August 2017

 

1. Annabelle Creation $37.5

2. The Dark Tower $16/$55

3. The Nut Job: Nutty By Nature $10

4. The Emoji Movie $9/$66.5

5. Atomic Blonde $8.5/$63.5

6. Dunkirk $8/$118

7. Detroit $7/$25

8. War for the Planet of the Apes $6/$152

9. The Glass Castle $5

10. Spider-Man: Homecoming $4/$282

 

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  1. Dunkirk - 46.4M
  2. Girls Trip - 33.7M
  3. War for the Planet of the Apes - 27.0M
  4. Spider-Man: Homecoming - 16.8M
  5. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets - 14.8M
  6. Despicable Me 3 - 14.1M
  7. Baby Driver - 5.4M
  8. Wonder Woman - 4.7M
  9. The Big Sick - 3.3M
  10. Cars 3 - 2.2M
  11. Wish Upon - 2.0M
  12. Transformers: The Last Knight - 1.1M
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Spoiler

7/21-7/23

  1. Dunkirk: $57 million 
  2. Girls Trip: $28 million 
  3. War for the Planet of the Apes: $24 million ($104 million) 
  4. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $23 million ($254 million) 
  5. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets: $16 million 
  6. Despicable Me 3: $12.5 million ($214 million) 
  7. The Big Sick: $6 million ($28 million) 
  8. Baby Driver: $5.5 million ($84 million) 
  9. Wonder Woman: $5 million ($390 million) 
  10. Cars 3: $2 million ($144 million) 

7/28-7/30

  1. Dunkirk: $37.5 million ($129 million) 
  2. The Emoji Movie: $36.5 million 
  3. Girls Trip: $21 million ($69 million) 
  4. Atomic Blonde: $20.5 million 
  5. War for the Planet of the Apes: $14 million ($132 million) 
  6. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $13.5 million ($282 million) 
  7. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets: $7 million ($31 million)
  8. Despicable Me 3: $5.5 million ($226 million) 
  9. The Big Sick: $4.5 million ($37 million) 
  10. Wonder Woman: $4 million ($398 million) 

8/4-8/6

  1. The Dark Tower: $39 million 
  2. Dunkirk: $26 million ($178 million) 
  3. The Emoji Movie: $21 million ($75 million) 
  4. Girls Trip: $14.5 million ($96 million) 
  5. Atomic Blonde: $10.5 million ($40 million) 
  6. Detroit: $10 million 
  7. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $8 million ($297 million) 
  8. War for the Planet of the Apes: $6.5 million ($146 million) 
  9. Despicable Me 3: $4 million ($234 million) 
  10. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets: $3.5 million ($38 million) 

8/11-8/13

  1. Annabelle - Creation: $31 million 
  2. The Dark Tower: $21 million ($76 million) 
  3. Dunkirk: $17 million ($209 million) 
  4. The Emoji Movie: $12 million ($95 million) 
  5. The Nut Job 2 - Nutty by Nature: $10.5 million 
  6. Girls Trip: $9 million ($112 million)  
  7. Atomic Blonde: $5 million ($49 million) 
  8. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $4.5 million ($305 million) 
  9. Detroit: $4 million ($17 million) 
  10. The Glass Castle: $3.5 million 

8/18-8/20

  1. The Hitman's Bodyguard: $34 million 
  2. The Dark Tower: $12.5 million ($97 million) 
  3. Annabelle - Creation: $12 million ($51 million) 
  4. Dunkirk: $11 million ($227 million) 
  5. The Emoji Movie: $8 million ($106 million) 
  6. The Nut Job 2 - Nutty by Nature: $6.5 million ($20 million) 
  7. Girls Trip: $5.5 million ($121 million) 
  8. Logan Lucky: $5 million 
  9. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $3 million ($310 million) 
  10. The Glass Castle: $2.5 million ($7 million) 

8/25-8/27

  1. The Hitman's Bodyguard: $23.5 million ($70 million) 
  2. All Saints: $16.5 million 
  3. Dunkirk: $8.5 million ($240 million) 
  4. The Dark Tower: $8 million ($109 million) 
  5. The Emoji Movie: $6 million ($114 million) 
  6. Annabelle - Creation: $5.5 million ($60 million) 
  7. The Nut Job 2 - Nutty by Nature: $4.5 million ($26 million)
  8. Girls Trip: $4 million ($127 million) 
  9. Polaroid: $3.5 million 
  10. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $2 million ($313 million) 

9/1-9/4

  1. The Hitman's Bodyguard: $16.5 million/$22 million ($100 million) 
  2. All Saints: $16 million/$21.5 million ($45 million) 
  3. Dunkirk: $8 million/$10 million ($254 million) 
  4. The Emoji Movie: $6.5 million/$8.5 million ($124 million) 
  5. Renegades: $6 million/$7 million 
  6. The Dark Tower: $5.5 million/$6.5 million ($118 million) 
  7. Leap!: $4 million/$5.5 million ($7 million) 
  8. Girls Trip: $3.5 million/$4.25 million ($133 million) 
  9. Annabelle - Creation: $3 million/$3.75 million ($65 million) 
  10. The Nut Job 2 - Nutty by Nature: $2.5 million/$3.5 million  ($30 million) 

 

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