Avengers: Age of Ultron OS Thread | $945.7M OS | $1.405B WW

[BadAtGender]

Euro continues to drop. Now at 1.08 dollars. It'll be tough for Avengers, since the exchage rate in May 2012 was 1.30-1.25 dollars. I still think it can reach $1 billion but won't get much farther than that.

 

Avengers' highest grossing Eurozone country was France, which was only its 10th biggest overall market (9th biggest OS). It earned $37.7m there. IM3 also earned about the same amount (just over $38m.) For the most part, the Eurozone is important, but it's not of prime importance for a superhero film like this.

 

For the other top 10  markets, checking May 1, 2012 as a comparison date.

 

The Chinese Yuan seems to be roughly on par right now with what it was. So currency fluctuation won't have an effect here and we're down to market expansion. This is going to be the bulk of any expansion in OS gross.

 

The British Pound is slightly weaker. It was 1.62 back then and is 1.50 right now, so an 8% drop. I'm not sure what sort of audience expansion you can expect there.

 

The Brazilian Real has lost nearly 40% of its value. That's going to hurt, because I don't think there's any sort of market expansion to account for that.

 

The Mexican Peso is about 17% weaker. I don't know how Mexico goes for sequels, so it's possible it could match that.

 

Back in 2012, the Australian dollar was actually just slightly more valuable than the US Dollar. It's about 25% weaker, now. (For domestic calculations, roughly the same thing has happened to the Canadian dollar.)

 

Much like the Chinese Yuan, the South Korean Won hasn't changed much in value relative to the dollar. Since at least part of the movie is filmed there AND the market has had some really big expansions, we can probably expect it's going to be huge.

 

So the Yen is about 33% weaker, now. Added to that, Japan isn't a great market for superheroes. Some do okay, but it doesn't seem likely that there will be any expansion to offset the exchange rate.

 

And then there's Russia. While it's a growing movie market, the currency variations are crushing. The Ruble is at 50% of its value in 2012. Can we expect AOU to gross twice as much or more? That's what it'll need to be bigger.

 

 

So what it comes down to is that there are two markets that haven't seen the currency change AND can be expected to get big expansions, but they have to more than offset currency losses in several other markets.

 

1 billion OS is possible, but I wouldn't call it a given.

[A District 3 Engineer]

Guys, it's may 1st holiday in your countries?

It's is in Latinamerica, so OW might be huge.

Edited March 7, 2015 by A District 3 Engineer

[peludo]

Guys, it's may 1st holiday in your countries?

It's is in Latinamerica, so OW may be huge.

In Spain too (Labor day). It will be released on April 30th. 4-day opening

[peludo]

Avengers' highest grossing Eurozone country was France, which was only its 10th biggest overall market (9th biggest OS). It earned $37.7m there. IM3 also earned about the same amount (just over $38m.) For the most part, the Eurozone is important, but it's not of prime importance for a superhero film like this.

For the other top 10 markets, checking May 1, 2012 as a comparison date.

The Chinese Yuan seems to be roughly on par right now with what it was. So currency fluctuation won't have an effect here and we're down to market expansion. This is going to be the bulk of any expansion in OS gross.

The British Pound is slightly weaker. It was 1.62 back then and is 1.50 right now, so an 8% drop. I'm not sure what sort of audience expansion you can expect there.

The Brazilian Real has lost nearly 40% of its value. That's going to hurt, because I don't think there's any sort of market expansion to account for that.

The Mexican Peso is about 17% weaker. I don't know how Mexico goes for sequels, so it's possible it could match that.

Back in 2012, the Australian dollar was actually just slightly more valuable than the US Dollar. It's about 25% weaker, now. (For domestic calculations, roughly the same thing has happened to the Canadian dollar.)

Much like the Chinese Yuan, the South Korean Won hasn't changed much in value relative to the dollar. Since at least part of the movie is filmed there AND the market has had some really big expansions, we can probably expect it's going to be huge.

So the Yen is about 33% weaker, now. Added to that, Japan isn't a great market for superheroes. Some do okay, but it doesn't seem likely that there will be any expansion to offset the exchange rate.

And then there's Russia. While it's a growing movie market, the currency variations are crushing. The Ruble is at 50% of its value in 2012. Can we expect AOU to gross twice as much or more? That's what it'll need to be bigger.

So what it comes down to is that there are two markets that haven't seen the currency change AND can be expected to get big expansions, but they have to more than offset currency losses in several other markets.

1 billion OS is possible, but I wouldn't call it a given.

Making some calculations, TA would have made today about 760-770 OS. I agree with you: Billion OS is possible but it is far to be locked. Edited March 7, 2015 by peludo

[Emirazza]

Compared to the US Dollar many foreign currencies were being devalued. True, but I think the fan base is a lot bigger than in 2012. So I kinda feel achieving $1 billion OS is far too obvious. 

Edited April 3, 2015 by Emirazza

[Lordmandeep]

Fast 7 has shown us big numbers are possible. 

[keysersoze123]

I wont be surprised if A2 goes below Fast 7 in few markets. Especially in Latin America. But as Fast 7 has shown it will expand "furiously" in several markets. Especially Asia will be record breaking across the board except Japan(where I expect it to drop 15M) and China/Korea(It will grow big but not break all time record). May be India also will do great but not record breaking. I think 150M increase in Asia will happen. A2 can grow in some european markets to offset currency depreciation but overall I am expecting it to stay flat at best and may be drop 50m. Latin America also will be lucky to stay flat as A1 was so huge plus currency depreciated big time. Australia will drop a bit as well. I am thinking 1.05B at best and at worst just below 1B.

[Tower]

I wont be surprised if A2 goes below Fast 7 in few markets. 

 

This was always going to be the case, different markets have different tastes, and in some the Fast series is huge. Here in Israel for example The Avengers made less than Fast 5 and Fast 6. This isn't really a failure of the Avengers, it's just that the fast films have become massive, and superhero films never go that high, so Fast 7 beating A2 is a foregone conclusion.

[A District 3 Engineer]

The Avengers did $12,442,756 (1,593,000 admissions) in Venezuela.

 

The Exchange rate hasn't changed, the ticket prices has increased (in 2012 the 3D price was $7.95, today is $27,95) and the opening day is a holiday. 

 

FF7 did $1.35m in two days (also a holiday), that's a good sign.

 

I think $30m could happen.

Edited April 4, 2015 by A District 3 Engineer

[Fullbuster]

The Avengers did $12,442,756 (1,593,000 admissions) in Venezuela.

 

The Exchange rate hasn't changed, the ticket prices has increased (in 2012 the 3D price was $7.95, today is $27,95) and the opening day is a holiday. 

 

FF7 did $1.35m in two days (also a holiday), that's a good sign.

 

I think $30m could happen.

 

$30m for FF7? That seems a bit high..

[A District 3 Engineer]

30m for The Avengers 2

[keysersoze123]

The Avengers did $12,442,756 (1,593,000 admissions) in Venezuela.

 

The Exchange rate hasn't changed, the ticket prices has increased (in 2012 the 3D price was $7.95, today is $27,95) and the opening day is a holiday. 

 

FF7 did $1.35m in two days (also a holiday), that's a good sign.

 

I think $30m could happen.

 

wait does that mean Avengers would have grossed like $40m with today's ticket prices. Then 30m sounds low. With the same admissions it will hit 40m. Why cant we think about 50m?

[Lordmandeep]

I think we should wait to see Fast Seven performance overseas to judge TA2 fate.

 

No doubt if it were 2012 exchange prices we be looking at 1.1-1.2 billion overseas I think. 

[A District 3 Engineer]

I checked a second time (I wanted to be sure before giving you an answer)

THIS is what TA did in 2012: $13,216,039. Our exchange rate was $4.28.

So our ticket price was exactly (I have mine in a box, that's why I know) $11.68

So total admissions was: 1.131.000.

With this new ticket price and ER (From 4.28 to 6.3) I think $30m is possible. Ff7 will be a reference.

Edited April 4, 2015 by A District 3 Engineer

[Lordmandeep]

Fast 7 looks to become biggest film overseas since Frozen. 

[Gokai Red]

Fast 7 looks to become biggest film overseas since Frozen.

Bigger than TF4's 846m?

[peludo]

Bigger than TF4's 846m?

In fact, with current exchange rates, TF4 would be the third biggest OS film ever, just behind Avatar and Titanic. Of course, without taking into account inflation.

[Halba]

this movie will have to have a killer WOM To match or exceed first avengers, as the first avengers overperformed being a new and better version concept of superhero 'team up'.

 

now its not new anymore, its hard to see it getting much past $1.6Bn WW.

 

also if the WOM disappoints slightly, it'll miss this mark for sure. Its going to be hard to top 92% RT for the 1st one, im predicting 80s RT %

Edited April 5, 2015 by Halba

[picores]

After seeing Furious 7 massive breakout, i'm more confident about a good increase over the first Avengers. Latin America and Asia will surely deliver biggest OW of all time. And a small increase in $ in old Europe. I will go with $1.15B OS

Edited April 6, 2015 by picores

[peludo]

After seeing Furious 7 massive breakout, i'm more confident about a good increase over the first Avengers. Latin America and Asia will surely deliver biggest OW of all time. And a small increase in $ in old Europe. I will go with $1.15B OS

I had a similar prediction before the exchange rates drop. Even a bit higher, over 1.2 billion, but I was scared and lowed it to about 1 billion. Let's remember that Avengers was already enormous in markets where F7 is breaking records, so I do not know if we can expect a so big increase for TA2. I prefer to be cautious and if TA2 destroy every prediction, we will have a good time within a month