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Why Home Video Spending Is Weakening Faster Than You Might Think

 

 

Streaming services lead by Netflix, plus time shifting, hurt home entertainment spending far more in 2014 than you would have thought from last week’s year-end report from DEG: The Digital Entertainment Group – and will continue to damage the industry in 2015 —  MoffettNathanson Research’s Michael Nathanson says this morning in a bracing examination of the trade group’s numbers. Indeed, the analyst warns that “the recent cracking in consumer demand might create an additional (and unexpected) negative revision” in earnings estimates for the major studio owners: home video accounts for 10% of Time Warner’s revenues, 8% at Fox, 6% at Viacom, and 4% at Disney.

 

DEG’s conclusion that last year’s domestic sales and rentals declined 1.8% to $17.8 billion is bogus, the analyst says, because it includes numbers from Netflix, Hulu and other subscription VOD (SVOD) services. “The DEG has never historically reported consumer spending on other premium products like HBO, Showtime, and Starz – or basic cable fees – so including the hypergrowth spending on Netflix and Hulu only artificially inflates the totals,” he says. They also don’t belong in the tally because they primarily offer TV shows while DVD and VOD are mostly about movies. Adding SVOD “is a red herring designed to puff up the numbers.”

 

When you take away SVOD, home-video spending declined 7.7% last year to $13.8 billion – a bigger drop than 2013 which fell 4.8% to $14.9 billion. He expects to see a 6% slide in 2015 to a hair below $13 billion, with results buoyed by home video releases of expected mid-year blockbusters including Furious 7, The Avengers: Age Of Ultron, Tomorrowland, Minions, Ted 2, and Ant-Man.

 

Couldn’t you just chalk up 2014’s woeful results to a bad year at the box office? Nathanson says no. Box office revenues tied to last year’s home videos were just 1.6% lower than in 2013. The latest numbers also included Frozen “which well outperformed any other title over the past few years.”  In addition, Nathanson finds it significant that DEG did not say how well Blu-ray discs sold last year. “We can only imagine this means Blu-ray was no longer a driver of growth in 2014.”

The bottom line: “2014 may serve as a warning that the industry may be on the precipice of returning to the decade-long declines before and after the recession,” Nathanson says.

 

https://deadline.com/2015/01/home-video-spending-weakening-deg-michael-nathanson-1201348046/

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Guardians of the Galaxy should become only the 5th movie to reach 100m$ in Blu Ray sales in the coming months.

 

I still can't believe the pace that Frozen is going.  Chances that it reaches 400M$ in combined revenues in 2015..will it reach it before Avatar?

 

I can't wait to see the boost the MCU movies will get when AoU gets released.  I'm mainly interested in Avengers, IM 1 & 2 and GotG  at this point though. 

 

Anyone thinks Minions as a shot at joining DM 1& 2 in the 200M$ combined revenue club?

 

Will we see another Hunger Games reach 200M$ in combined revenue?  Will MJ1 even reach 100M$ combined revenue in 2015?

 

Will all Hobbit movies reach 100M$ in combined revenues in 2015? or will they they have to crawl there in the coming years?

 

What will be the first movie to reach 200M$ in Blu Ray revenues?  Avatar?  Frozen?  AoU?  Star Wars VII?  Any other contender?

 

Knowing animation movies do very well on home video, what's gonna be the next animated movie to reach 200M$ combined (with Frozen being the last)?  Minions?  Big Hero 6? Inside Out?  Peanuts movie? DM3?

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Just jumping into the forum... to add the newest datas. Have to work out of the hose later on.

 

Btw, the percentages of movie 2 speak IMHO for a confirmation of GotG's being sold out then, I checked a lot of other movies percentages, in week 2 to 3 they had all percentages of above 50% (up to over 80%). Still possible it was the last minute sales boost who bought it within the last 3 days before the 25th Dec.

Merchandise not typical for Christmas should have had a decrease, as so many stores... were closed for 25. & 26. December

 

The Top-Selling Video Titles in the United States 2014 chart at The-Numbers does NOT include the sales of the week from 22. Dec to 28 December!

 

United States Combined DVD and Blu-ray Sales Chart for Week Ending December 28, 2014

← Previous Chart Chart Index  
Rank Title Units this Week Total Units Spending this Week Total Spending Weeks  
1 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 1,342,326 3,854,712 $33,211,839 $88,317,432 2 Buy
2 Guardians of the Galaxy 933,556 5,673,933 $17,470,451 $105,038,701 3 Buy
3 The Maze Runner 648,135 1,435,950 $10,793,544 $24,633,850 2 Buy
4 Frozen 622,394 18,265,320 $12,937,924 $338,055,744 41 Buy
5 Maleficent 367,274 3,847,318 $6,346,404 $72,276,959 8 Buy
6 Dawn of the Planet of the Apes 350,374 2,389,833 $5,330,932 $37,386,725 4 Buy
7 How to Train Your Dragon 2 329,866 3,940,173 $6,310,524 $67,121,748 7 Buy
8 The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug 263,985 4,753,573 $3,777,958 $97,206,030 38 Buy
9 22 Jump Street 218,595 1,277,628 $3,391,566 $21,869,158 6 Buy
10 Dolphin Tale 2 212,095 788,465 $3,971,314 $14,345,131 3 Buy
11 The Lego Movie 172,577 4,936,010 $2,521,586 $107,556,293 28 Buy
12 The Expendables 3 170,160 1,194,905 $2,974,467 $20,385,296 5 Buy
13 The Fault in Our Stars 169,569 2,091,931 $2,926,970 $37,813,297 15 Buy
14 A Christmas Story 167,901 4,865,449 $1,380,410 $53,008,849 744 Buy
15 X-Men Days of Future Past 167,308 2,973,839 $1,906,179 $45,820,763 11 Buy
16 Elf 164,092 6,537,715 $1,518,318 $54,515,651 528 Buy
17 National Lampoon's Christmas Vacation 141,713 8,566,289 $2,167,613 $106,797,423 893 Buy
18 Lone Survivor 139,146 2,825,204 $1,051,149 $44,803,867 30 Buy
19 Mr. Peabody & Sherman 133,005 1,701,052 $1,819,073 $27,674,971 11 Buy
20 How the Grinch Stole Christmas 128,048 2,067,505 $1,080,550 $23,713,172 684 Buy
21 Tammy 118,150 850,187 $1,428,646 $13,129,950 7 Buy
22 The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey 117,152 7,090,983 $1,551,246 $122,911,942 93 Buy
23 Captain America: The Winter Soldier 110,325 2,914,518 $2,050,119 $52,356,835 16 Buy
24 Transformers: Age of Extinction 105,508 3,641,163 $1,544,170 $58,864,634 13 Buy
25 The Polar Express 85,299 8,490,341 $953,478 $98,489,120 470 Buy
26 Edge of Tomorrow 84,119 1,204,094 $1,070,931 $21,609,323 12 Buy
27 The Wizard of Oz 65,057 5,663,147 $262,622 $68,351,199 927 Buy
28 The Hundred-Foot Journey 62,215 255,830 $1,243,056 $4,775,425 4 Buy
29 Divergent 60,446 2,943,882 $796,704 $50,899,546 21 Buy
30 The Princess Bride 57,369 5,059,762 $289,513 $52,449,474 754 Buy

 

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Frozen will pass Avatar in next few weeks to become the most selled Blu-Ray ever in USA.

 

Note that Avatar needed almost four years to reach 7 millions units sold (in week 52 of 2013 its 214th in release), Frozen only nine month (in week 38 of release). In the same time, at week 41 in release, Avatar was at "only" 5,99M units sold

 

All-Time Best-Selling Blu-ray Titles in the United States

  

1  Avatar  7,293,797  $162,124,638  Apr 22, 2010
2  Frozen  7,230,762  $152,855,748  Mar 18, 2014

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Just jumping into the forum... to add the newest datas. Have to work out of the hose later on.

 

Btw, the percentages of movie 2 speak IMHO for a confirmation of GotG's being sold out then, I checked a lot of other movies percentages, in week 2 to 3 they had all percentages of above 50% (up to over 80%). Still possible it was the last minute sales boost who bought it within the last 3 days before the 25th Dec.

Merchandise not typical for Christmas should have had a decrease, as so many stores... were closed for 25. & 26. December

 

The Top-Selling Video Titles in the United States 2014 chart at The-Numbers does NOT include the sales of the week from 22. Dec to 28 December!

 

United States Combined DVD and Blu-ray Sales Chart for Week Ending December 28, 2014 ← Previous Chart Chart Index   Rank Title Units this Week Total Units Spending this Week Total Spending Weeks   1 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 1,342,326 3,854,712 $33,211,839 $88,317,432 2 Buy 2 Guardians of the Galaxy 933,556 5,673,933 $17,470,451 $105,038,701 3 Buy 3 The Maze Runner 648,135 1,435,950 $10,793,544 $24,633,850 2 Buy 4 Frozen 622,394 18,265,320 $12,937,924 $338,055,744 41 Buy 5 Maleficent 367,274 3,847,318 $6,346,404 $72,276,959 8 Buy 6 Dawn of the Planet of the Apes 350,374 2,389,833 $5,330,932 $37,386,725 4 Buy 7 How to Train Your Dragon 2 329,866 3,940,173 $6,310,524 $67,121,748 7 Buy 8 The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug 263,985 4,753,573 $3,777,958 $97,206,030 38 Buy 9 22 Jump Street 218,595 1,277,628 $3,391,566 $21,869,158 6 Buy 10 Dolphin Tale 2 212,095 788,465 $3,971,314 $14,345,131 3 Buy 11 The Lego Movie 172,577 4,936,010 $2,521,586 $107,556,293 28 Buy 12 The Expendables 3 170,160 1,194,905 $2,974,467 $20,385,296 5 Buy 13 The Fault in Our Stars 169,569 2,091,931 $2,926,970 $37,813,297 15 Buy 14 A Christmas Story 167,901 4,865,449 $1,380,410 $53,008,849 744 Buy 15 X-Men Days of Future Past 167,308 2,973,839 $1,906,179 $45,820,763 11 Buy 16 Elf 164,092 6,537,715 $1,518,318 $54,515,651 528 Buy 17 National Lampoon's Christmas Vacation 141,713 8,566,289 $2,167,613 $106,797,423 893 Buy 18 Lone Survivor 139,146 2,825,204 $1,051,149 $44,803,867 30 Buy 19 Mr. Peabody & Sherman 133,005 1,701,052 $1,819,073 $27,674,971 11 Buy 20 How the Grinch Stole Christmas 128,048 2,067,505 $1,080,550 $23,713,172 684 Buy 21 Tammy 118,150 850,187 $1,428,646 $13,129,950 7 Buy 22 The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey 117,152 7,090,983 $1,551,246 $122,911,942 93 Buy 23 Captain America: The Winter Soldier 110,325 2,914,518 $2,050,119 $52,356,835 16 Buy 24 Transformers: Age of Extinction 105,508 3,641,163 $1,544,170 $58,864,634 13 Buy 25 The Polar Express 85,299 8,490,341 $953,478 $98,489,120 470 Buy 26 Edge of Tomorrow 84,119 1,204,094 $1,070,931 $21,609,323 12 Buy 27 The Wizard of Oz 65,057 5,663,147 $262,622 $68,351,199 927 Buy 28 The Hundred-Foot Journey 62,215 255,830 $1,243,056 $4,775,425 4 Buy 29 Divergent 60,446 2,943,882 $796,704 $50,899,546 21 Buy 30 The Princess Bride 57,369 5,059,762 $289,513 $52,449,474 754 Buy

 

Look at Turtles go! :o  It will likely end up above Guardians. It's crazy.

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TMNT already dropped below GOTG the week end Jan. 4th.

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I was looking at MOS' run. It made another 105M from the domestic home market (That's more than Iron-Man 3, CA 2, Thor or Thor 2). OS theatrical run wasn't that big, but I guess at least another 50M must have come from there. Add TV rights and it was a huge money maker for WB. And that's not even coonting the fact that 170M also came from third-party promos in the movie, so WB got back most of their production budgt even before the movie was released.

 

Considering how hugely anticipated BvS is, I have no doubt they will make their entire budget back before the theatrical release just from promotion.

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Part of the problem with HV now is that they are lazy with their extras.  DVD's used to be loaded with extras, now they basically slap a film together and put little to no extras on it and charge you $25.00 for the BR.  Are you fucking kidding me?  If I want a bare bones copy of it, I'll just download it.  Put some effort into it and make it worth the money.

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Part of the problem with HV now is that they are lazy with their extras.  DVD's used to be loaded with extras, now they basically slap a film together and put little to no extras on it and charge you $25.00 for the BR.  Are you fucking kidding me?  If I want a bare bones copy of it, I'll just download it.  Put some effort into it and make it worth the money.

 

Wholeheartedly agree. I am in a way an extras-junkie. I pay $10 for those gladly, IF they are worth it

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Look at Turtles go! :o  It will likely end up above Guardians. It's crazy.

 

Not sure, as the Christmas boost will not happening each week. GotG had ~ $87.5m in its 2md week of release and seemingly a lot of people willing to buy had to wait to get it.

I think evaluating / guessing /....  final listings out of the ones happening at extraordinary phases (like Christmas) will not work

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Wholeheartedly agree. I am in a way an extras-junkie. I pay $10 for those gladly, IF they are worth it

 

Me too.  I hated Rob Zombie's Halloween with every ounce of blood in me.  But I bought the SE DVD because there was 4 hours of extras on it.  Never watched the movie without the commentary again but the making of video and the commentaries were terrifiic.

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Me too.  I hated Rob Zombie's Halloween with every ounce of blood in me.  But I bought the SE DVD because there was 4 hours of extras on it.  Never watched the movie without the commentary again but the making of video and the commentaries were terrifiic.

 

LotR extended with all extras ... How many hours? Enough to fill 6 DVDs for the LotR triology. And different audio-commentaries per movie. And they even did to manage to NOT tell the same details

 

For me those are still the most interesting... extras. I really have no idea why the other studios didn't better their releases after these LotR releases

 

Two Towers

Audio Commentary 1: The Director and Writers
color_clear.gifbullet.gif color_clear.gif Peter Jackson (Director/Co-Writer/Producer)
color_clear.gifbullet.gif color_clear.gif Fran Walsh (Writer/Co-Producer)
color_clear.gifbullet.gif color_clear.gif Philippa Boyens (Co-Write)
color_clear.gif

Audio Commentary 2: The Design Team

color_clear.gifbullet.gif color_clear.gif Richard Taylor (WETA Workshop Creative Supervisor)
color_clear.gifbullet.gif color_clear.gif Tania Rodger (WETA Workshop Manager)
color_clear.gifbullet.gif color_clear.gif Grant Major (Production Designer)
color_clear.gifbullet.gif color_clear.gif Ngila Dickson (Costume Designer)
color_clear.gifbullet.gif color_clear.gif Alan Lee (Conceptual Designer)
color_clear.gifbullet.gif color_clear.gif John Howe (Conceptual Designer)
color_clear.gifbullet.gif color_clear.gif Dan Hennah (Supervising Art Director/Set Decorator)
color_clear.gifbullet.gif color_clear.gif Chris Hennah (Art Department Manager)
color_clear.gif

Audio Commentary 3: The Production/Post-Production Team

color_clear.gifbullet.gif color_clear.gif Barrie Osborne (Producer)
color_clear.gifbullet.gif color_clear.gif Mark Ordesky (Executive Producer)
color_clear.gifbullet.gif color_clear.gif Andrew Lesnie (Director of Photography)
color_clear.gifbullet.gif color_clear.gif Mike Horton and Jabez Olssen (Editors)
color_clear.gifbullet.gif color_clear.gif Rick Porras (Co-Producer)
color_clear.gifbullet.gif color_clear.gif Howard Shore (Composer)
color_clear.gifbullet.gif color_clear.gif Jim Rygiel (Visual Effects Supervisor)
color_clear.gifbullet.gif color_clear.gif Joe Letteri (WETA Digital Effects Supervisor)
color_clear.gifbullet.gif color_clear.gif Ethan Van der Ryn (Supervising Sound Editor/Co-Designer)
color_clear.gifbullet.gif color_clear.gif Mike Hopkins (Supervising Sound Editor)
color_clear.gifbullet.gif color_clear.gif Randy Cook (WETA Animation Designer & Supervisor)
color_clear.gifbullet.gif color_clear.gif Christian Rivers (WETA VFX Art Director)
color_clear.gifbullet.gif color_clear.gif Brian Van't Hull (WETA VFX Cinematographer)
color_clear.gifbullet.gif color_clear.gif Alex Funke (Miniatures Director of Photography)
color_clear.gif

Audio Commentary 4: The Cast

color_clear.gifbullet.gif color_clear.gif Elijah Wood (Frodo)
color_clear.gifbullet.gif color_clear.gif Liv Tyler (Arwen)
color_clear.gifbullet.gif color_clear.gif Sean Astin (Sam)
color_clear.gifbullet.gif color_clear.gif John Rhys-Davies (Gimli)
color_clear.gifbullet.gif color_clear.gif Billy Boyd (Pippin)
color_clear.gifbullet.gif color_clear.gif Dominic Monaghan (Merry)
color_clear.gifbullet.gif color_clear.gif Orlando Bloom (Legolas)
color_clear.gifbullet.gif color_clear.gif Christopher Lee (Saruman)
color_clear.gifbullet.gif color_clear.gif Sean Bean (Boromir)
color_clear.gifbullet.gif color_clear.gif Bernard Hill (Th‚oden)
color_clear.gifbullet.gif color_clear.gif Miranda Otto (owyn)
color_clear.gifbullet.gif color_clear.gif David Wenham (Faramir)
color_clear.gifbullet.gif color_clear.gif Brad Dourif (Grima)
color_clear.gifbullet.gif color_clear.gif Karl Urban (omer)
color_clear.gifbullet.gif color_clear.gif John Noble (Denethor)

 

DISCS 3-4 : The Appendices

Two discs of all-new bonus content, including multiple documentaries, galleries

and interactive maps. Documentaries that were started with The Lord of the Rings:

The Fellowship of the Ring Special Extended DVD Edition are continued here,

delving deep into the stories and experiences unique to The Two Towers.

color_clear.gif

DISCS 3 - The Appendices Part III: "The Journey Continues..."
color_clear.gif

color_clear.gifbullet.gif

color_clear.gif J.R.R. Tolkien - Origins of Middle-earth (Video Documentary)
color_clear.gif

color_clear.gifbullet.gif

color_clear.gif From Book to Script - Finding the Story (Video Documentary)
color_clear.gif

color_clear.gifbullet.gif

color_clear.gif Designing and Building Middle-earth
color_clear.gif
color_clear.gif color_clear.gif dot.gifcolor_clear.gifDesigning Middle-earth (Viedo Documentary)
color_clear.gif color_clear.gif dot.gifcolor_clear.gifWeta Workshop (Video Documentary)
color_clear.gif

color_clear.gifbullet.gif

color_clear.gif Design Galleries
color_clear.gif
color_clear.gif color_clear.gif dot.gifcolor_clear.gifThe Peoples of Middle-earth
color_clear.gif color_clear.gif dot.gifcolor_clear.gifThe Realms of Middle-earth
color_clear.gif

color_clear.gifbullet.gif

color_clear.gif Gollum
color_clear.gif
color_clear.gif color_clear.gif dot.gifcolor_clear.gifThe Taming of Smeagol (Video Documentary)
color_clear.gif color_clear.gif dot.gifcolor_clear.gifAndy Serkis Animation Reference (Video Documentary)
color_clear.gif color_clear.gif dot.gifcolor_clear.gifGollum "Stand-in" (Video Documentary)
color_clear.gif color_clear.gif dot.gifcolor_clear.gifDesign Gallery
color_clear.gif

color_clear.gifbullet.gif

color_clear.gif Middle-earth Atlas (Tracing the journeys of the Fellowship) (Interactive map)
color_clear.gif

color_clear.gifbullet.gif

color_clear.gif New Zealand as Middle-earth (Interactive map)
color_clear.gif
DISC 4 - The Appendices Part IV: "The battle for Middle-earth begin..."
color_clear.gif

color_clear.gifbullet.gif

color_clear.gif Filming "The Two Towers"
color_clear.gif
color_clear.gif color_clear.gif dot.gifcolor_clear.gifWarriors of Middle-earth (Video Documentary)
color_clear.gif color_clear.gif dot.gifcolor_clear.gifCameras in Middle-earth (Video Documentary)
color_clear.gif color_clear.gif dot.gifcolor_clear.gifProduction Photos
color_clear.gif

color_clear.gifbullet.gif

color_clear.gif Visual Effects
color_clear.gif
color_clear.gif color_clear.gif dot.gifcolor_clear.gifMiniatures
color_clear.gif color_clear.gif color_clear.gifbullet.gifcolor_clear.gif"Big-atures" (Video Documentary)
color_clear.gif color_clear.gif color_clear.gifbullet.gifcolor_clear.gifGalleries
color_clear.gif color_clear.gif color_clear.gifbullet.gifcolor_clear.gifThe Flooding of Isengard Animatic
color_clear.gif color_clear.gif dot.gifcolor_clear.gifWeta Digital (Video Documentary)
color_clear.gif color_clear.gif dot.gifcolor_clear.gifAbandoned Concepts
color_clear.gif

color_clear.gifbullet.gif

color_clear.gif Editorial: Refining the Story (Video Documentary)
color_clear.gif

color_clear.gifbullet.gif

color_clear.gif Music and Sound
color_clear.gif
color_clear.gif color_clear.gif dot.gifcolor_clear.gifMusic for Middle-earth (Video Documentary)
color_clear.gif color_clear.gif dot.gifcolor_clear.gifThe Soundscapes of Middle-earth (Video Documentary)
color_clear.gif color_clear.gif dot.gifcolor_clear.gifSound Demonstration: "Helm's Deep"
color_clear.gif

color_clear.gifbullet.gif

color_clear.gif "The Battle for Helm's Deep is over ..." (Video Documentary)
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Part of the problem with HV now is that they are lazy with their extras.  DVD's used to be loaded with extras, now they basically slap a film together and put little to no extras on it and charge you $25.00 for the BR.  Are you fucking kidding me?  If I want a bare bones copy of it, I'll just download it.  Put some effort into it and make it worth the money.

 

Agreed, I do like listening to the commentaries, watching the deleted scenes, featurettes, and sometimes even try out the dumb minigames (for example I have a Harry Potter 2 DVD that has a game on disc 2 that allows you to explore the Chamber of Secrets lmao). I suppose nowadays its all on the web, that's why its gotten lazy. 

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Avatar is 8M$ away from 400M$ combined.

 

Frozen is 62M$ away from the same milestone, but selling much more at the moment.  

 

Which one will get there first? 

 

Frozen is only a couple weeks away from passing Avatar in units and $ for Blu Ray sales.  Will it be the first to reach 200M$?

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Frozen will pass Avatar in next few weeks to become the most selled Blu-Ray ever in USA.

 

Note that Avatar needed almost four years to reach 7 millions units sold (in week 52 of 2013 its 214th in release), Frozen only nine month (in week 38 of release). In the same time, at week 41 in release, Avatar was at "only" 5,99M units sold

 

All-Time Best-Selling Blu-ray Titles in the United States

  

1  Avatar  7,293,797  $162,124,638  Apr 22, 2010

2  Frozen  7,230,762  $152,855,748  Mar 18, 2014

I have learned  sell-sold-sold in school. Normally I would ignore grammar errors, but you people constantly change irregular verbs, that I wonder: have they been put to rest in internet fora or has English changed so much since I left school?

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I have learned  sell-sold-sold in school. Normally I would ignore grammar errors, but you people constantly change irregular verbs, that I wonder: have they been put to rest in internet fora or has English changed so much since I left school?

 

No he wrote selled....but he meant salad.  Frozen is the most salad Blu Ray ever.  Check your freezer, I`m sure there is some Frozen selled there. 

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I have learned  sell-sold-sold in school. Normally I would ignore grammar errors, but you people constantly change irregular verbs, that I wonder: have they been put to rest in internet fora or has English changed so much since I left school?

  

No he wrote selled....but he meant salad.  Frozen is the most salad Blu Ray ever.  Check your freezer, I`m sure there is some Frozen selled there.

Thanks for the lesson in grammar and for the clarification. I apologize for the wrong word. From now on I will write in German only. Goodbye.

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Not sure why the studios don't put out digital versions up for download or rent after blu-ray releases. Wait an extra month or 2 after the blu-ray comes out. 

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