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2015 40M OWs - 23 down, 1 to go (The Force Is Not Quite Strong Enough With 2015)

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I see the rest panning out as

 

200M
  1. Jurassic World - June 14
  2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
 
150M
  1. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 3
  2. Jurassic World - June 14
  3. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2
  4. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
 
100M
  1. Furious 7 - April 5
  2. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 3
  3. Jurassic World - June 14
  4. Minions - July 12
  5. Spectre
  6. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2
  7. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
 
75M
  1. American Sniper - January 18
  2. Fifty Shades of Grey – February 15
  3. Furious 7 - April 5
  4. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 3
  5. Jurassic World - June 14
  6. Inside Out - June 21
  7. Minions - July 12
  8. Spectre
  9. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2
  10. The Good Dinosaur
  11. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
 
40M
  1. American Sniper - January 18
  2. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water – February 8
  3. Fifty Shades of Grey – February 15
  4. Cinderella - March 15
  5. The Divergent Series: Insurgent - March 22
  6. Home - March 29
  7. Furious 7 - April 5
  8. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 3
  9. Pitch Perfect 2 - May 17
  10. Mad Max: Fury Road - May 17
  11. San Andreas - May 31
  12. Jurassic World - June 14
  13. Inside Out - June 21
  14. Minions - July 12
  15. Ant-Man - July 19
  16. Pixels
  17. Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation
  18. Fantastic Four
  19. Straight Outta Compton
  20. Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials
  21. Hotel Transylvania 2
  22. Spectre
  23. The Peanuts Movie
  24. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2
  25. The Good Dinosaur
  26. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
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What makes you think Straight Outta Compton will make $40m in its first weekend? Music biopics never do that well. Is there really heavy marketing or something?

I'm pessimistic about Scorch Trials and Hotel Transylvania 2 as well, though both have a decent chance of making it.

 

8 Mile opened north of 50M in 2002. It translates to +70M OW today.

 

Tracking is really strong. The key demo seems to be really interested in this. Distributed by almighty Universal.

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8 Mile opened north of 50M in 2002. It translates to +70M OW today.

 

8 Mile had Eminem at his absolute peak. Earlier that year Em sold a million copies of his album in its second week. The NWA brand name isn't anywhere near that level of strong today.

 

If tracking is that good I'm inclined to believe you though.

Edited by department store basement
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200M
  1. Jurassic World - June 14
150M
  1. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 3
  2. Jurassic World - June 14
100M
  1. Furious 7 - April 5
  2. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 3
  3. Jurassic World - June 14
  4. Minions - July 12
75M
  1. American Sniper - January 18
  2. Fifty Shades of Grey – February 15
  3. Furious 7 - April 5
  4. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 3
  5. Jurassic World - June 14
  6. Inside Out - June 21
  7. Minions - July 12
40M
  1. American Sniper - January 18
  2. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water – February 8
  3. Fifty Shades of Grey – February 15
  4. Cinderella - March 15
  5. The Divergent Series: Insurgent - March 22
  6. Home - March 29
  7. Furious 7 - April 5
  8. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 3
  9. Pitch Perfect 2 - May 17
  10. Mad Max: Fury Road - May 17
  11. San Andreas - May 31
  12. Jurassic World - June 14
  13. Inside Out - June 21
  14. Minions - July 12
  15. Ant-Man - July 19
  16. Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation - August 2
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200M
  1. Jurassic World - June 14
150M
  1. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 3
  2. Jurassic World - June 14
100M
  1. Furious 7 - April 5
  2. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 3
  3. Jurassic World - June 14
  4. Minions - July 12
75M
  1. American Sniper - January 18
  2. Fifty Shades of Grey – February 15
  3. Furious 7 - April 5
  4. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 3
  5. Jurassic World - June 14
  6. Inside Out - June 21
  7. Minions - July 12
40M
  1. American Sniper - January 18
  2. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water – February 8
  3. Fifty Shades of Grey – February 15
  4. Cinderella - March 15
  5. The Divergent Series: Insurgent - March 22
  6. Home - March 29
  7. Furious 7 - April 5
  8. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 3
  9. Pitch Perfect 2 - May 17
  10. Mad Max: Fury Road - May 17
  11. San Andreas - May 31
  12. Jurassic World - June 14
  13. Inside Out - June 21
  14. Minions - July 12
  15. Ant-Man - July 19
  16. Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation - August 2
  17. Straight Outta Compton - August 16
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Do we have 7 locked 40M? Star Wars, The Good Dinosaur, Spectre and Hunger Games are the only ones I remember.

There are tons and tons of movies that have a good chance of doing it, tho.

Edited by CJohn
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Do we have 7 locked 40M? Star Wars, The Good Dinosaur, Spectre and Hunger Games are the only ones I remember.

There are tons and tons of movies that have a good chance of doing it, tho.

 

I think the ones with the best chances after those four are: The Martian, The Maze Runner: Scorch Trials and Hotel Transylvania 2

Everything else is a bunch of wildcards. 

Edited by babz06
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200M
  1. Jurassic World - June 14
150M
  1. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 3
  2. Jurassic World - June 14
100M
  1. Furious 7 - April 5
  2. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 3
  3. Jurassic World - June 14
  4. Minions - July 12
75M
  1. American Sniper - January 18
  2. Fifty Shades of Grey – February 15
  3. Furious 7 - April 5
  4. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 3
  5. Jurassic World - June 14
  6. Inside Out - June 21
  7. Minions - July 12
40M
  1. American Sniper - January 18
  2. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water – February 8
  3. Fifty Shades of Grey – February 15
  4. Cinderella - March 15
  5. The Divergent Series: Insurgent - March 22
  6. Home - March 29
  7. Furious 7 - April 5
  8. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 3
  9. Pitch Perfect 2 - May 17
  10. Mad Max: Fury Road - May 17
  11. San Andreas - May 31
  12. Jurassic World - June 14
  13. Inside Out - June 21
  14. Minions - July 12
  15. Ant-Man - July 19
  16. Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation - August 2
  17. Straight Outta Compton - August 16
  18. Hotel Transylvania 2 - September 27
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200M
  1. Jurassic World - June 14
150M
  1. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 3
  2. Jurassic World - June 14
100M
  1. Furious 7 - April 5
  2. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 3
  3. Jurassic World - June 14
  4. Minions - July 12
75M
  1. American Sniper - January 18
  2. Fifty Shades of Grey – February 15
  3. Furious 7 - April 5
  4. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 3
  5. Jurassic World - June 14
  6. Inside Out - June 21
  7. Minions - July 12
40M
  1. American Sniper - January 18
  2. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water – February 8
  3. Fifty Shades of Grey – February 15
  4. Cinderella - March 15
  5. The Divergent Series: Insurgent - March 22
  6. Home - March 29
  7. Furious 7 - April 5
  8. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 3
  9. Pitch Perfect 2 - May 17
  10. Mad Max: Fury Road - May 17
  11. San Andreas - May 31
  12. Jurassic World - June 14
  13. Inside Out - June 21
  14. Minions - July 12
  15. Ant-Man - July 19
  16. Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation - August 2
  17. Straight Outta Compton - August 16
  18. Hotel Transylvania 2 - September 27
  19. The Martian - October 4
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200M

  1. Jurassic World - June 14

150M

  1. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 3
  2. Jurassic World - June 14

100M

  1. Furious 7 - April 5
  2. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 3
  3. Jurassic World - June 14
  4. Minions - July 12

75M

  1. American Sniper - January 18
  2. Fifty Shades of Grey – February 15
  3. Furious 7 - April 5
  4. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 3
  5. Jurassic World - June 14
  6. Inside Out - June 21
  7. Minions - July 12

40M

  1. American Sniper - January 18
  2. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water – February 8
  3. Fifty Shades of Grey – February 15
  4. Cinderella - March 15
  5. The Divergent Series: Insurgent - March 22
  6. Home - March 29
  7. Furious 7 - April 5
  8. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 3
  9. Pitch Perfect 2 - May 17
  10. Mad Max: Fury Road - May 17
  11. San Andreas - May 31
  12. Jurassic World - June 14
  13. Inside Out - June 21
  14. Minions - July 12
  15. Ant-Man - July 19
  16. Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation - August 2
  17. Straight Outta Compton - August 16
  18. Hotel Transylvania 2 - September 27
  19. The Martian - October 4
  20. Spectre - November 8
  21. The Peanuts Movie - November 8
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200M

  1. Jurassic World - June 14

150M

  1. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 3
  2. Jurassic World - June 14

100M

  1. Furious 7 - April 5
  2. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 3
  3. Jurassic World - June 14
  4. Minions - July 12
  5. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 - November 22

75M

  1. American Sniper - January 18
  2. Fifty Shades of Grey – February 15
  3. Furious 7 - April 5
  4. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 3
  5. Jurassic World - June 14
  6. Inside Out - June 21
  7. Minions - July 12
  8. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 - November 22

40M

  1. American Sniper - January 18
  2. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water – February 8
  3. Fifty Shades of Grey – February 15
  4. Cinderella - March 15
  5. The Divergent Series: Insurgent - March 22
  6. Home - March 29
  7. Furious 7 - April 5
  8. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 3
  9. Pitch Perfect 2 - May 17
  10. Mad Max: Fury Road - May 17
  11. San Andreas - May 31
  12. Jurassic World - June 14
  13. Inside Out - June 21
  14. Minions - July 12
  15. Ant-Man - July 19
  16. Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation - August 2
  17. Straight Outta Compton - August 16
  18. Hotel Transylvania 2 - September 27
  19. The Martian - October 4
  20. Spectre - November 8
  21. The Peanuts Movie - November 8
  22. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 - November 22
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200M

  1. Jurassic World - June 14
  2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens - December 20

150M

  1. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 3
  2. Jurassic World - June 14
  3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens - December 20

100M

  1. Furious 7 - April 5
  2. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 3
  3. Jurassic World - June 14
  4. Minions - July 12
  5. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 - November 22
  6. Star Wars: The Force Awakens - December 20

75M

  1. American Sniper - January 18
  2. Fifty Shades of Grey – February 15
  3. Furious 7 - April 5
  4. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 3
  5. Jurassic World - June 14
  6. Inside Out - June 21
  7. Minions - July 12
  8. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 - November 22
  9. Star Wars: The Force Awakens - December 20

40M

  1. American Sniper - January 18
  2. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water – February 8
  3. Fifty Shades of Grey – February 15
  4. Cinderella - March 15
  5. The Divergent Series: Insurgent - March 22
  6. Home - March 29
  7. Furious 7 - April 5
  8. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 3
  9. Pitch Perfect 2 - May 17
  10. Mad Max: Fury Road - May 17
  11. San Andreas - May 31
  12. Jurassic World - June 14
  13. Inside Out - June 21
  14. Minions - July 12
  15. Ant-Man - July 19
  16. Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation - August 2
  17. Straight Outta Compton - August 16
  18. Hotel Transylvania 2 - September 27
  19. The Martian - October 4
  20. Spectre - November 8
  21. The Peanuts Movie - November 8
  22. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 - November 22
  23. Star Wars: The Force Awakens - December 20
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How I see 2016 plays

 

150M

1.Batman v Superman - March 25

2.Captain America: Civil War - May 6

3.Finding Dory - June 17

4.Rogue One - December 16

 

100m

1.Batman V. Superman - March 25

2.Captain America: Civil War - May 6

3.Finding Dory - June 17

4.Independence Day: Resurgence - June 24

5.Suicide Squad - August 5

6.Rogue One - December 16

 

75m

1.Batman V. Superman - March 25

2.Captain America: Civil War - May 6

3.X-Men: Apocalypse - May 27

4.Finding Dory - June 17

5.Independence Day: Resurgence - June 24

6.Ghostbusters - July 18

7.Suicide Squad - August 5

8.Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them - November 18

9.Moana - November 25

10.Rogue One - December 16

 

40M

1.Kung Fu Panda 3 - Jan 29

2.Deadpool - Feb 12

3.Zootopia - March 4

4.Batman V. Superman - March 25

5.The Jungle Book - April 15

6.Captain America: Civil War - May 6

7.The Angry Birds Movie - May 20

8.X-Men: Apocalypse - May 27

9.Alice: Through the Looking Glass - May 27

10.TMNT 2 - June 3

11.Warcraft - June 10

12.The Conjuring 2 - June 10

13.Finding Dory - June 17

14.Independence Day: Resurgence - June 24

15.The BFG - July 1

16.The Secret Life of Pets - July 8

17.Ghostbusters - July 15

18.Star Trek: Beyond - July 23

19.Bourne 5 - July 30

20.Suicide Squad - August 5

21.The Magnificent 7 - September 23

22.Doctor Strange - November 4

23.Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them - November 18

24.Moana - November 25

25.Rogue One - December 16

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