2015 100M Films - 29 down, 7 to go (Leo Bears the Blockbuster Burden!)

[kowhite]

I'm interested to see how the September 18th through October 16th releases play out. I feel like in that span Black Mass, Everest, Scorch Trials, Hotel Transylvania, The Walk, The Martian, Pan, Steve Jobs, and Bridge of Spies all have 100m potential. But I highly doubt we can have 9 100m+ releases over that short fall period. Would be really fun if we do though.

I can see Jobs, Black Mass, Everest, The Walk, ad Bridge of Spies not doing it. Lots of 80-90 movies though.

Jobs, Everest, Black Mass I think will be...lower.

Edited August 11, 2015 by kowhite

[MovieMan89]

I'm sure at least one maybe two of the three oscar bait dramas (Jobs, Black Mass, Bridge of Spies) will do it, but yeah probably not all. Don't see Everest missing 100 with the major push its received. The Walk is the biggest question mark out of all in that month. Could breakout huge, could tank huge.

Edited August 11, 2015 by MovieMan89

[kowhite]

I'm sure at least one maybe two of the three oscar bait dramas (Jobs, Black Mass, Bridge of Spies) will do it, but yeah probably not all. Don't see Everest missing 100 with the major push its received. The Walk is the biggest question mark out of all in that month. Could breakout huge, could tank huge.

Every time I see the trailer for The Walk...

I can't help but think...I am so not interested in this story.

But Rob Z...is usually interesting at least...conflicted. Then it goes...in 3D...and my eyes...they just roll.

It may do well, but sorry Rob...I don't care.

Edit: Rob Z is Robert Zemeckis, not Rob Zombie. I felt oddly compelled to clarify that, despite knowing no one was confused.

Edited August 11, 2015 by kowhite

[Maxmoser3]

Depending on Straight Outta Compton's OW and it's second weekend hold. Trainwreck will be next on the list. But if Compton debuts with 45-55 million OW and it's drop is around 47.5-52.1% it's second weekend it could eventually just sneak pass it. Really September is a mixed bag Maze Runner 2 will do it and increase from the first movie, while Hotel Transylvania 2 will do it but will take a big drop from the first movie. Black Mass I can see just do between John Wick and Looper numbers at best. Everest will probably do around Into The Storm. Now October that's a very crowded month The Martian should do it if it's a crowd pleaser and WOM helps it. The Walk is an iffy one because I'm worried that it taking place at the World Trade Center might affect it. Pan will not do it major flop. Goosebumps will do Monster House numbers. Bridge Of Spies might just earn on par with Zero Dark Thirty or War Horse instead of Argo or Captain Phillips. Crimson Peak has potential but could be appealing to a certain audience.

[mahnamahna]

I'm sure at least one maybe two of the three oscar bait dramas (Jobs, Black Mass, Bridge of Spies) will do it, but yeah probably not all. Don't see Everest missing 100 with the major push its received. The Walk is the biggest question mark out of all in that month. Could breakout huge, could tank huge.

Bridge of Spies and The Martian are the two Oscar baits for the fall that should get there. They compare favorably to Gravity and Captain Phillips. Steve Jobs, Black Mass and The Walk should all do $60-70 million due to competition. 

 

It'll probably be (for the rest of the year):

1. Trainwreck
2. Straight Outta Compton
3. Everest
4. The Maze Runner 2
5. Hotel Transylvania 2
6. The Martian
7. Bridge of Spies
8. Crimson Peak/Goosebumps (one of the two.. possibly both) 
9. Spectre
10. The Peanuts Movie
11. Mockingjay Part 2
12. The Good Dinosaur
13. Creed 
14. The Night Before 
15. Star Wars Episode VII 
16. Joy
17. Daddy's Home/Sisters (one of the two) 
18. The Hateful Eight 

Edited August 11, 2015 by mahnamahna

[WrathOfHan]

 

Bridge of Spies and The Martian are the two Oscar baits for the fall that should get there. They compare favorably to Gravity and Captain Phillips. Steve Jobs, Black Mass and The Walk should all do $60-70 million due to competition. 

 

It'll probably be (for the rest of the year):

1. Trainwreck
2. Straight Outta Compton
3. Everest
4. The Maze Runner 2
5. Hotel Transylvania 2
6. The Martian
7. Bridge of Spies
8. Crimson Peak/Goosebumps (one of the two.. possibly both) 
9. Spectre
10. The Peanuts Movie
11. Mockingjay Part 2
12. The Good Dinosaur
13. Creed 
14. The Night Before 
15. Star Wars Episode VII 
16. Joy
17. Daddy's Home/Sisters (one of the two) 
18. The Hateful Eight 

 

 

I wouldn't be so sure on the bolded ones.

[mahnamahna]

I wouldn't be so sure on the bolded ones.

The Night Before looks solid and it's the first major comedy since July. If it's halfway decent, it could inch across $100 million DOM like This is the End. Not a lock, but Seth Rogen has done fairly well lately. 

 

I understand on Sisters. But I think Daddy's Home might be the film to go see if SW7 sells out since it seems like it'll be a PG (possibly PG-13). Joy, Revenant, Snowden and Sisters are R. Concussion and In the Heart of the Sea aren't exactly light-hearted/family-friendly despite the PG-13. Alvin 4 will be G most likely, but most people aren't going to turn towards it when there's a decent enough family comedy. 

 

I think either Daddy's Home or Alvin 4 should benefit from SW7's epic sellouts those first two weeks. 

[MovieMan89]

I wouldn't be so sure on the bolded ones.

Yeah, definitely not The Night Before imo. The funniest part of the whole  trailer is "from the guys who almost brought you The Interview."

Edited August 15, 2015 by MovieMan89

[Blankments]

600M

1. Jurassic World - July 17

500M

1. Jurassic World - June 28

400M

1. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 24
2. Jurassic World - June 21

300M

1. Furious 7 - April 22
2. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 10
3. Jurassic World - June 19
4. Inside Out - July 18
5. Minions - August 8

200M

1. Furious 7 - April 10
2. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 4
3. Jurassic World - June 14
4. Cinderella - June 25
5. Inside Out - June 30
6. Minions - July 18

100M

1. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water - February 16
2. Fifty Shades of Grey - February 18
3. Kingsman: The Secret Service - March 11
4. Cinderella - March 21
5. Furious 7 - April 4
6. The Divergent Series: Insurgent - April 4
7. Home - April 7
8. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 2
9. Pitch Perfect 2 - May 23
10. Mad Max: Fury Road - May 27
11. San Andreas - June 8
12. Jurassic World - June 13
13. Inside Out - June 22
14. Spy - July 9
15. Minions - July 12
16. Ant-Man - July 26
17. Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation - August 9
18. Trainwreck - August 21
19. Straight Outta Compton - August 22

[Blankments]

BTW, just wanna say I'm super proud of the title I came up with, although I wish Inside Out had hit a milestone to go along with it

[Amadeus]

This is so not going to end well. I can not see 17 films doing more than 100m. I barely can see more than 8 films doing more than 100m. I always knew everest would be a big hit (especially since it's an Universal). But 100m? Left are the likes of "h8ful" (wom), "Spectre", Star Wars", HT, Martian, Hunger Games, and "that good dino".

Peanuts look too indie and depressing i think for breaking out. Bridge of spies may be thrilling enough, may as well be not. Pan will bomb and so will Crimson Peak (see "Poltergeist"). 

But from another point of view: the top ten movies grosses this year will equal the top 15 from 2013, maybe even top 20. This is the year when big fishes totally ate the small ones. 

[WrathOfHan]

This is so not going to end well. I can not see 17 films doing more than 100m. I barely can see more than 8 films doing more than 100m. I always knew everest would be a big hit (especially since it's an Universal). But 100m? Left are the likes of "h8ful" (wom), "Spectre", Star Wars", HT, Martian, Hunger Games, and "that good dino".

Peanuts look too indie and depressing i think for breaking out. Bridge of spies may be thrilling enough, may as well be not. Pan will bomb and so will Crimson Peak (see "Poltergeist"). 

But from another point of view: the top ten movies grosses this year will equal the top 15 from 2013, maybe even top 20. This is the year when big fishes totally ate the small ones. 

 

[Maxmoser3]

Well Maze Runner and Mass will fall short.

[DAJK]

Dang I was sure Maze Runner was going to do it. Oh well

[Maxmoser3]

Dang I was sure Maze Runner was going to do it. Oh well

if it plays like the first movie it can come close but sequels usually take a dive.

[DAJK]

if it plays like the first movie it can come close but sequels usually take a dive.

I'm thinking $80M total.

[zackzack]

Hotel Transylvania 2 & The Martian will get to $100M in no time. 

 

I was rooting for Everest, Pixels, and Maze Runner 2 to hit 100

but all have performed very disappointingly.

 

So the rest of the year is looking like this :

 

(Sure Fires, in bold + Potentials)

 

1. Episode 7
2. Mockingjay 2
3. Spectre
4. The Martian
5. Hotel Transylvania 2
6. The Good Dino
7. Joy
8. Peanuts
9. Bridge of Spies
10. Alvin 4
11. Goosebumps
12. Sisters
13. Point Break
14. In the Heart of the Sea
15. Hateful 8
16. Dady's Home
17. Concussion

Joy is the third Fall/Holiday collaboration between JLAw, DeNiro & Bradley Cooper

Third time still a charm?

Edited October 6, 2015 by zackzack

[mahnamahna]

1. HT2

2. The Martian

3. Goosebumps

4. Bridge of Spies

5. Steve Jobs

6. Spectre

7. The Peanuts Movie

8. Mockingjay Part 2

9. The Good Dinosaur

10. The Night Before

11. Creed

12. Star Wars Episode VII

13. Sisters

14. Joy

15. The Hateful Eight

16. Alvin 4

17. Daddys Home

18. The Revenant

[Blankments]

600M

1. Jurassic World - July 17

500M

1. Jurassic World - June 28

400M

1. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 24
2. Jurassic World - June 21

300M

1. Furious 7 - April 22
2. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 10
3. Jurassic World - June 19
4. Inside Out - July 18
5. Minions - August 8

200M

1. Furious 7 - April 10
2. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 4
3. Jurassic World - June 14
4. Cinderella - June 25
5. Inside Out - June 30
6. Minions - July 18

100M

1. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water - February 16
2. Fifty Shades of Grey - February 18
3. Kingsman: The Secret Service - March 11
4. Cinderella - March 21
5. Furious 7 - April 4
6. The Divergent Series: Insurgent - April 4
7. Home - April 7
8. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 2
9. Pitch Perfect 2 - May 23
10. Mad Max: Fury Road - May 27
11. San Andreas - June 8
12. Jurassic World - June 13
13. Inside Out - June 22
14. Spy - July 9
15. Minions - July 12
16. Ant-Man - July 26
17. Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation - August 9
18. Trainwreck - August 21
19. Straight Outta Compton - August 22
20. Hotel Transylvania 2 - October 9
21. The Martian - October 11

[Maxmoser3]

Up next is a wildcard Goosebumps has a 50% chance, Bridge of Spies has a 85% chance. Crimson Peak has a 4% chance. Steve Jobs has a 70% chance. Spectre is an easy one as well as Hunger Games, Peanuts,Good Dinosaur, and Star Wars. Also I think Creed, Night Before,Sisters,Road Chip, Joy,Hateful Eight, and Revenant all are possibilities.