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2015 100M Films - 29 down, 7 to go (Leo Bears the Blockbuster Burden!)

By Blankments, in Box Office Discussion

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WrathOfHan Cinematic Universe

WrathOfHan

Posted
Posted (edited)

I doubt the record happens now. Bridge of Spies might be able to cross but Goosebumps will drop after Halloween and Steve Jobs bombed. That just leaves us with these guarantees:

Spectre

Mockingjay

Good Dino

Star Wars

 

 

Peanuts will highly likely be a 100M grosser. Creed, Joy, and Hateful Eight have an 85% chance. Alvin, Concussion, Sisters, The Revenant, and The Big Short are the only other possibilities IMO.

Edited by WrathOfHan
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Kalo Global Phenomenon

Kalo

Posted
Posted (edited)

So much for my 35+ over 100m for 2015. it's looking like the big fish eat the little fish this year. I believe only 30 films are going to hit 100m this year now. 

  1. Star Wars The Force Awakens $778,000,000
  2. Jurassic World $652,000,000
  3. Avengers: Age of Ultron $459,000,000
  4. Mockingjay Part 2 $385,000,000
  5. Inside Out $356,000,000
  6. Furious 7 $351,000,000
  7. Minions $335,000,000
  8. SPECTRE $284,000,000
  9. The Good Dinosaur $263,000,000
  10. The Martian $220,000,000
  11. Cinderella $201,000,000
  12. Mission Impossible Rogue Nation $195,000,000
  13. Pitch Perfect 2 $184,000,000
  14. The Peanuts Movie $180,000,000
  15. Ant-Man $179,000,000
  16. Home $177,000,000
  17. Hotel Transylvania 2 $169,000,000
  18. Fifty Shades of Grey $166,000,000
  19. The Spongebob Movie: Sponge Out of Water $163,000,000
  20. Straight Outta Compton $161,000,000
  21. San Andreas $155,000,000
  22. Mad Max: Fury Road $154,000,000
  23. The Hateful Eight $132,000,000
  24. Insurgent $130,000,000
  25. Kingsman: The Secret Service $128,000,000
  26. The Revenant $118,000,000
  27. Joy $112,000,000
  28. Spy $111,000,000
  29. Trainwreck $110,000,000
  30. Creed $105,000,000

Still 7 movies over $300m and 2 over $600m is crazy. and kind of makes up for the lack of more break out hits.

Edited by Kalo
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mahnamahna Box Office Gold

mahnamahna

Posted
Posted
  1. Star Wars Episode VII: $803 million
  2. Jurassic World: $652 million 
  3. Avengers - Age of Ultron: $459 million 
  4. Mockingjay Part 2: $442 million
  5. The Good Dinosaur: $376 million 
  6. Inside Out: $355 million 
  7. Furious 7: $352 million 
  8. Minions: $335 million 
  9. Spectre: $274 million 
  10. The Peanuts Movie: $223 million
  11. The Martian: $216 million 
  12. Cinderella: $201 million 
  13. Mission Impossible - Rogue Nation: $195 million 
  14. Pitch Perfect 2: $184 million
  15. Ant-Man: $179 million 
  16. Home: $177 million
  17. Hotel Transylvania 2: $169 million 
  18. 50 Shades of Grey: $166 million
  19. SpongeBob 2: $163 million
  20. Straight Outta Compton: $161 million
  21. San Andreas: $155 million 
  22. Mad Max - Fury Road: $154 million 
  23. Joy: $137 million
  24. Insurgent: $130 million
  25. Kingsman - The Secret Service: $128 million 
  26. Creed: $124 million 
  27. The Night Before: $113 million 
  28. Spy: $111 million
  29. Trainwreck: $110 million 
  30. The Hateful Eight: $108 million 
  31. The Revenant: $103 million 
  32. Daddy's Home: $100 million 

Should be able to do 30, since November looks strong (4 strong $100 million+ contenders and 2-3 sleepers) while December has Star Wars and Oscar bait (3-4) 

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Kalo Global Phenomenon

Kalo

Posted
Posted

Creed's pretty reasonable (I'm going 150M on it) but the other two will be lucky to do 60M.

I'm not sure about that, while I don't think they are grossing what his predictions say, I think they are both possible, Daddy's Home' PG rating will help it for a family option and one parents would rather take their kids to than a 4th Chipmunks movie. 

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mahnamahna Box Office Gold

mahnamahna

Posted
Posted
On 10/26/2015, 7:38:20, CJohn said:

Lmao at your Creed, The Night Before and Daddy's Home numbers.

If WB can get Blind Side to $250 million+ DOM (in a similar release date to Creed) and American Sniper to $350 million+ DOM during January/February, I don't see how $120-125 million DOM for the only broadly appealing drama this holiday season is that ridiculous. In fact, it'd only be above Rocky Balboa and Rocky V in terms of admissions. 

Creed should benefit greatly from MJ2 + GD combining for potentially $200 million+ over the 5 day... the sellouts should cause some spillover for Creed, and also Peanuts/Spectre. Not to mention By the Sea, The 33 and Secret in Their Eyes should all do middling numbers - leaving plenty of room for an adult-skewing drama to breakout. This fall's adult dramas underperforming also helps Creed. 

The Night Before is the first major broad comedy since Vacation (Intern is a light-hearted dramedy), and with its Christmas theme, it should have sub-50% drops until Dec 25. Even against post-Thanksgiving and Star Wars/Sisters, it should hold well. With a high teens-low 20s OW, Night Before ought to be able to leg its way to $90-110 million DOM. I can see $60-70 million if it has a sub-$15 million OW, though. Should have at least a 3.5x because of its theme and release date. 

Daddy's Home is a longshot, but if SW7 has enough sellouts, it and Alvin 4 should get quite a bit of spillover, since every other movie will be an adult-skewing drama or comedy. Will Ferrell/Mark Wahlberg combined to $120 million DOM in their last effort, so $100 million DOM isn't that bad.

I agree none of those three are locks, but they all have breakout potential. And if they miss, there's other $100 million DOM+ contenders waiting (Sisters, Alvin 4, The Big Short, Concussion, etc) 

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Blankments Global Phenomenon

Blankments

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600M

  1. Jurassic World - July 17

500M

  1. Jurassic World - June 28

400M

  1. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 24
  2. Jurassic World - June 21

300M

  1. Furious 7 - April 22
  2. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 10
  3. Jurassic World - June 19
  4. Inside Out - July 18
  5. Minions - August 8

200M

  1. Furious 7 - April 10
  2. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 4
  3. Jurassic World - June 14
  4. Cinderella - June 25
  5. Inside Out - June 30
  6. Minions - July 18
  7. The Martian - November 11

100M

  1. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water - February 16
  2. Fifty Shades of Grey - February 18
  3. Kingsman: The Secret Service - March 11
  4. Cinderella - March 21
  5. Furious 7 - April 4
  6. The Divergent Series: Insurgent - April 4
  7. Home - April 7
  8. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 2
  9. Pitch Perfect 2 - May 23
  10. Mad Max: Fury Road - May 27
  11. San Andreas - June 8
  12. Jurassic World - June 13
  13. Inside Out - June 22
  14. Spy - July 9
  15. Minions - July 12
  16. Ant-Man - July 26
  17. Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation - August 9
  18. Trainwreck - August 21
  19. Straight Outta Compton - August 22
  20. Hotel Transylvania 2 - October 9
  21. The Martian - October 11
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Blankments Global Phenomenon

Blankments

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600M

  1. Jurassic World - July 17

500M

  1. Jurassic World - June 28

400M

  1. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 24
  2. Jurassic World - June 21

300M

  1. Furious 7 - April 22
  2. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 10
  3. Jurassic World - June 19
  4. Inside Out - July 18
  5. Minions - August 8

200M

  1. Furious 7 - April 10
  2. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 4
  3. Jurassic World - June 14
  4. Cinderella - June 25
  5. Inside Out - June 30
  6. Minions - July 18
  7. The Martian - November 11

100M

  1. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water - February 16
  2. Fifty Shades of Grey - February 18
  3. Kingsman: The Secret Service - March 11
  4. Cinderella - March 21
  5. Furious 7 - April 4
  6. The Divergent Series: Insurgent - April 4
  7. Home - April 7
  8. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 2
  9. Pitch Perfect 2 - May 23
  10. Mad Max: Fury Road - May 27
  11. San Andreas - June 8
  12. Jurassic World - June 13
  13. Inside Out - June 22
  14. Spy - July 9
  15. Minions - July 12
  16. Ant-Man - July 26
  17. Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation - August 9
  18. Trainwreck - August 21
  19. Straight Outta Compton - August 22
  20. Hotel Transylvania 2 - October 9
  21. The Martian - October 11
  22. Spectre - November 13
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Blankments Global Phenomenon

Blankments

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600M

  1. Jurassic World - July 17

500M

  1. Jurassic World - June 28

400M

  1. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 24
  2. Jurassic World - June 21

300M

  1. Furious 7 - April 22
  2. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 10
  3. Jurassic World - June 19
  4. Inside Out - July 18
  5. Minions - August 8

200M

  1. Furious 7 - April 10
  2. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 4
  3. Jurassic World - June 14
  4. Cinderella - June 25
  5. Inside Out - June 30
  6. Minions - July 18
  7. The Martian - November 11

100M

  1. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water - February 16
  2. Fifty Shades of Grey - February 18
  3. Kingsman: The Secret Service - March 11
  4. Cinderella - March 21
  5. Furious 7 - April 4
  6. The Divergent Series: Insurgent - April 4
  7. Home - April 7
  8. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 2
  9. Pitch Perfect 2 - May 23
  10. Mad Max: Fury Road - May 27
  11. San Andreas - June 8
  12. Jurassic World - June 13
  13. Inside Out - June 22
  14. Spy - July 9
  15. Minions - July 12
  16. Ant-Man - July 26
  17. Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation - August 9
  18. Trainwreck - August 21
  19. Straight Outta Compton - August 22
  20. Hotel Transylvania 2 - October 9
  21. The Martian - October 11
  22. Spectre - November 13
  23. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 - November 22
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zackzack Blockbuster

zackzack

Posted
Posted (edited)

2013 has 35 $100M movies. Both 2013 & 2014 have 13 $200M movies. 

2015 will miss both records. But the year will have 2 $600M movies

and a record of 6 $300M movies

 

Something about mega blockbusters that suck up all the attendance

for lesser movies. 

Edited by zackzack
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Blankments Global Phenomenon

Blankments

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600M

  1. Jurassic World - July 17

500M

  1. Jurassic World - June 28

400M

  1. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 24
  2. Jurassic World - June 21

300M

  1. Furious 7 - April 22
  2. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 10
  3. Jurassic World - June 19
  4. Inside Out - July 18
  5. Minions - August 8

200M

  1. Furious 7 - April 10
  2. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 4
  3. Jurassic World - June 14
  4. Cinderella - June 25
  5. Inside Out - June 30
  6. Minions - July 18
  7. The Martian - November 11

100M

  1. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water - February 16
  2. Fifty Shades of Grey - February 18
  3. Kingsman: The Secret Service - March 11
  4. Cinderella - March 21
  5. Furious 7 - April 4
  6. The Divergent Series: Insurgent - April 4
  7. Home - April 7
  8. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 2
  9. Pitch Perfect 2 - May 23
  10. Mad Max: Fury Road - May 27
  11. San Andreas - June 8
  12. Jurassic World - June 13
  13. Inside Out - June 22
  14. Spy - July 9
  15. Minions - July 12
  16. Ant-Man - July 26
  17. Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation - August 9
  18. Trainwreck - August 21
  19. Straight Outta Compton - August 22
  20. Hotel Transylvania 2 - October 9
  21. The Martian - October 11
  22. Spectre - November 13
  23. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 - November 22
  24. The Peanuts Movie - November 23
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The Panda Global Phenomenon

The Panda

Posted
Posted

2016 could be possible to break the record, but it also looks more stacked like this year.

 

400M 

1.Batman v Superman

2.Finding Dory

3.Rogue One

 

300M

1.Batman v Superman

2.Captain America: Civil War

3.Finding Dory

4.Suicide Squad

5.Moana

6.Rogue One

 

200M

1.Deadpool

2.Zootopia

3.Batman v Superman

4.The Jungle Book

5.Captain America: Civil War

6.Finding Dory

7.The Secret Life of Pets

8.Star Trek: Beyond

9.Suicide Squad

10.Doctor Strange

11.Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

12.Moana

13.Rogue One

 

100M

1.Kung Fu Panda 3

2.Deadpool

3.Zootopia

4.Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice

5.Miracles From Heaven

6.The Jungle Book

7.Captain America: Civil War

8.Neighbors 2

9.The Angry Birds Movie

10.X-Men: Apocalypse

11.Alice: Through the Looking Glass

12.TMNT 2

13.The Conjuring 2

14.Warcraft

15.Finding Dory

16.Independence Day: Resurgence

17.Central Intelligence 

18.The BFG

19.The Secret Life of Pets

20.Ghostbusters

21.Star Trek: Beyond

22.Bourne 5

23.Suicide Squad

24.Storks

25.The Magnificent 7

26.Inferno

27.Trolls

28.Doctor Strange

29.Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

30.Moana

31.Rogue One

32.Assassin's Creed

33.Sing

34.Passengers

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Blankments Global Phenomenon

Blankments

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600M

  1. Jurassic World - July 17

500M

  1. Jurassic World - June 28

400M

  1. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 24
  2. Jurassic World - June 21

300M

  1. Furious 7 - April 22
  2. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 10
  3. Jurassic World - June 19
  4. Inside Out - July 18
  5. Minions - August 8

200M

  1. Furious 7 - April 10
  2. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 4
  3. Jurassic World - June 14
  4. Cinderella - June 25
  5. Inside Out - June 30
  6. Minions - July 18
  7. The Martian - November 11
  8. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 - November 30

100M

  1. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water - February 16
  2. Fifty Shades of Grey - February 18
  3. Kingsman: The Secret Service - March 11
  4. Cinderella - March 21
  5. Furious 7 - April 4
  6. The Divergent Series: Insurgent - April 4
  7. Home - April 7
  8. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 2
  9. Pitch Perfect 2 - May 23
  10. Mad Max: Fury Road - May 27
  11. San Andreas - June 8
  12. Jurassic World - June 13
  13. Inside Out - June 22
  14. Spy - July 9
  15. Minions - July 12
  16. Ant-Man - July 26
  17. Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation - August 9
  18. Trainwreck - August 21
  19. Straight Outta Compton - August 22
  20. Hotel Transylvania 2 - October 9
  21. The Martian - October 11
  22. Spectre - November 13
  23. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 - November 22
  24. The Peanuts Movie - November 23
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Blankments Global Phenomenon

Blankments

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600M

  1. Jurassic World - July 17

500M

  1. Jurassic World - June 28

400M

  1. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 24
  2. Jurassic World - June 21

300M

  1. Furious 7 - April 22
  2. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 10
  3. Jurassic World - June 19
  4. Inside Out - July 18
  5. Minions - August 8

200M

  1. Furious 7 - April 10
  2. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 4
  3. Jurassic World - June 14
  4. Cinderella - June 25
  5. Inside Out - June 30
  6. Minions - July 18
  7. The Martian - November 11
  8. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 - November 30

100M

  1. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water - February 16
  2. Fifty Shades of Grey - February 18
  3. Kingsman: The Secret Service - March 11
  4. Cinderella - March 21
  5. Furious 7 - April 4
  6. The Divergent Series: Insurgent - April 4
  7. Home - April 7
  8. Avengers: Age of Ultron - May 2
  9. Pitch Perfect 2 - May 23
  10. Mad Max: Fury Road - May 27
  11. San Andreas - June 8
  12. Jurassic World - June 13
  13. Inside Out - June 22
  14. Spy - July 9
  15. Minions - July 12
  16. Ant-Man - July 26
  17. Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation - August 9
  18. Trainwreck - August 21
  19. Straight Outta Compton - August 22
  20. Hotel Transylvania 2 - October 9
  21. The Martian - October 11
  22. Spectre - November 13
  23. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 - November 22
  24. The Peanuts Movie - November 23
  25. Star Wars: The Force Awakens - December 15
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The Panda Global Phenomenon

The Panda

Posted
Posted
On November 24, 2015 at 8:30:49 PM, department store basement said:

You seriously think Deadpool is going to do over 200m? I can't even see it opening much higher than Zoolander 2 the week they both come out.

 

Deadpool has a lot of interest and a large fanbase.  Good WoM and it should be a big hit.

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