2015 100M Films - 29 down, 7 to go (Leo Bears the Blockbuster Burden!)

[mahnamahna]

Taken 3 Surprisingly wont make it. American Sniper really took the wind out of it's sales.

So it looks like only Spongebob and Fifty Shades are locks after Jan/Feb. We'll see if Kingsman can leg its way to 100m, there isnt much competition for the rest of the month. 

With a $42 million 4 day, a 2.5x multi (from the 4 day) gives it $105 million. A 3x gives it $126 million. 

 

$105-126 million seems like Kingsman's eventual range. I think it'll make it since Run All Night is the only semi-major action movie until Furious 7.

 

Jan-Apr

1. SpongeBob 2
2. 50 Shades of Grey
3. Kingsman
4. Cinderella
5. Insurgent
6. Get Hard
7. Furious 7
8. Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 (Hear me out lol... it easily got the best reaction when I went to see SpongeBob 2. I think this'll inch past $100 million since it has zero family comedy competition until June 19) 

May-Aug

1. Avengers 2
2. Pitch Perfect 2 
3. Spy 
4. Tomorrowland
5. Paper Towns 
6. Jurassic World
7. Inside Out
8. Ted 2 
9. Terminator Genysis
10. Minions
11. Ant-Man
12. Pixels 
13. Trainwreck
14. Mission Impossible 5
15. The Fantastic Four
16. Ricki and the Flash
17. Straight Outta Compton 

Sep-Dec

1. The Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials 
2. Hotel Transylvania 2 
3. The Walk 
4. Vacation
5. St. James Place
6. Crimson Peak
7. Spectre
8. The Peanuts Movie
9. Mockingjay Part 2
10. The Good Dinosaur
11. Seth Rogen/JGL Christmas Movie
12. Star Wars Episode VII 
13. In the Heart of the Sea 
14. Sisters 
15. Joy
16. The Hateful Eight 

Edited February 17, 2015 by mahnamahna

[CJohn]

2 so far. AS is 2014.

[Maxmoser3]

Kingsman will come close, and fifty shades on either Thursday or Friday

[CJohn]

Kingsman will come close, and fifty shades on either Thursday or Friday

It would be really good if Kingsman passed the mark. Fucking Taken 3 opened with 40M but those insanely bad legs killed it.

[mahnamahna]

It would be really good if Kingsman passed the mark. Fucking Taken 3 opened with 40M but those insanely bad legs killed it.

In its defense, Sniper shot down any legs it may have gotten. Without Sniper's massive breakout, it would have legged its way to $105-115 million. 

[Maxmoser3]

In its defense, Sniper shot down any legs it may have gotten. Without Sniper's massive breakout, it would have legged its way to $105-115 million.

taken 3 had the fate of a third movie

[stripe]

Taken 3 biggest problem is that it's a bad action movie. Plain and simple. It didn't have any legs because of its quality. Taken 2 may be sillier, but it was better

[narniadis]

Pitch 2 won't clear 100m I don't understand the BOT obsession with predicting that.

As for the rest, we are having a really strong quarter so far.

[DAJK]

Pitch 2 won't clear 100m I don't understand the BOT obsession with predicting that.

As for the rest, we are having a really strong quarter so far.

Pitch 1 basically went "viral" after its release. It has become insanely popular, and while it may just be within my age demographic, we were able to power twilight and TFIOS to huge #s.

[narniadis]

Or it could just as easily not (think HSM3). If it does I will be surprised and pleasantly so but this site has a huge problem in general with over predicting.

[narniadis]

Pitch 1 basically went "viral" after its release. It has become insanely popular, and while it may just be within my age demographic, we were able to power twilight and TFIOS to huge #s.

Would be awesome if it was this generations Austin Powers.

[stripe]

Not the next Austin Powers, but it can manage a great BO run. DVD/BR sells of the first one were really remarkable.

[sfran43]

Shouldn't the title of this thread be updated now that we have 1 (2 by Thursday) 2015 movie(s) that has passed $100M already.

Edited February 18, 2015 by sfran43

[SchumacherFTW]

Or it could just as easily not (think HSM3). If it does I will be surprised and pleasantly so but this site has a huge problem in general with over predicting.

HSM3 went from free, to buying a ticket. Hard to compare something like that to PP is theatrical from the start

[Mockingjay Raphael]

PP2 will easily make $100m, even $120m is possible.

[Jandrew]

Or it could just as easily not (think HSM3). If it does I will be surprised and pleasantly so but this site has a huge problem in general with over predicting.

HSM2 had 17 million viewers during its premiere. Thats a $120M OW in 2008 dollars. #4 all time highest OW. (Excluding the earlier times) Television always has been and still is, and likely always will be bigger than movies. Theres no way to expect HSM3 to match viewership of its cable predecessor. Transition from tv to film, or vice versa, isnt the same thing.

[Aplandg]

PP 2 is going to explode! I see at least a $60m OW domestic.

[DAJK]

HSM2 had 17 million viewers during its premiere. Thats a $120M OW in 2008 dollars. #4 all time highest OW. (Excluding the earlier times) Television always has been and still is, and likely always will be bigger than movies. Theres no way to expect HSM3 to match viewership of its cable predecessor. Transition from tv to film, or vice versa, isnt the same thing.

I remember the first time I realized that HSM2 # my mind was blown!!

[Maxmoser3]

Well there are going to be two starting today! And maybe six by the end of march

[Blankments]

300M

 

200M

 

100M

1. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water – February 16