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87TH ACADEMY AWARDS CEREMONY DISCUSSION THREAD AAAHHH! | Discuss It Live Here

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Does anyone think American Sniper could win Best Picture? I was looking on a betting site and they have odds of 50/1.... it's super tempting to put some money down on that, since I'd say the chance of it happening is a lot higher than 2%. I mean, I know Boyhood will probably win, but given how Sniper has kind of taken over the whole of America, it's a possibility.

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Does anyone think American Sniper could win Best Picture? I was looking on a betting site and they have odds of 50/1.... it's super tempting to put some money down on that, since I'd say the chance of it happening is a lot higher than 2%. I mean, I know Boyhood will probably win, but given how Sniper has kind of taken over the whole of America, it's a possibility.

 

Not after this weekend BO. It needed to have a story of hitting 400M during voting season to win. 

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BO isn't everything when going into oscar voting. Avatar lost to Hurt Locker, remember.

 

I think Birdman and Boyhood are still the strongest contenders.

Obviously it's not, but American Sniper is the film that has everyone talking at the moment. I just want to know if people think it has a chance at all - I know it's unlikely either way. :)

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At the end of the day, AS is still looking at a likely $350M and highest grossing 2014 film. That's still a lot of BO. Anyway, Sniper peaked at exactly the right time. If a lot of people don't want to vote Birdman, AS will be a tempting option. I would say it does stand a chance.

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At the end of the day, AS is still looking at a likely $350M and highest grossing 2014 film. That's still a lot of BO. Anyway, Sniper peaked at exactly the right time. If a lot of people don't want to vote Birdman, AS will be a tempting option. I would say it does stand a chance.

 

 

I think that perhaps that'll be why neither AS or Birdman ends up winning. If the race is going as most people seem to think it is going, the anti-Boyhood vote will need to coalesce around one candidate and with Birdman being the up-to-now Guild favourite and AS being the BO darling, I think they'll end up splitting the vote and letting Boyhood win. 

 

However, I'm still subscribed to the story of Boyhood never ever having been actually first in the industry. We and the critics just perceived it and hyped it up to be first, while in reality, if we could actually poll Academy members and industry members every day (Imagine if we could :lol:) we'd find that Boyhood was never first. This is like Keaton vs Redmayne or TKS vs TSN. That Birdman has always been in front and that the guilds from here on out will reflect (and have already reflected) that. I expect both DGA and BAFTA to go for Birdman and it'll be undeniable no matter what AS and Boyhood throws at it. (Although it'll end up winning without Keaton, which ironically was the one category we all thought Birdman was locked for)

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it could but the fact that no one even knows what that movie is might hurt it. I noticed in the other thread that everyone is predicting the lego movie to win that category which makes absolutely no sense to me. Like, I think it's totally 5th place. I could make a case for all the other nominees.

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