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87TH ACADEMY AWARDS CEREMONY DISCUSSION THREAD AAAHHH! | Discuss It Live Here

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I think that perhaps that'll be why neither AS or Birdman ends up winning. If the race is going as most people seem to think it is going, the anti-Boyhood vote will need to coalesce around one candidate and with Birdman being the up-to-now Guild favourite and AS being the BO darling, I think they'll end up splitting the vote and letting Boyhood win. 

 

However, I'm still subscribed to the story of Boyhood never ever having been actually first in the industry. We and the critics just perceived it and hyped it up to be first, while in reality, if we could actually poll Academy members and industry members every day (Imagine if we could :lol:) we'd find that Boyhood was never first. This is like Keaton vs Redmayne or TKS vs TSN. That Birdman has always been in front and that the guilds from here on out will reflect (and have already reflected) that. I expect both DGA and BAFTA to go for Birdman and it'll be undeniable no matter what AS and Boyhood throws at it. (Although it'll end up winning without Keaton, which ironically was the one category we all thought Birdman was locked for)

 That one was a correct prediction as it won it yesterday. BAFTA we will know ~ soon too ;)

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Apollo 13 was the only movie that won pga, sag and dga and then didn't win best picture. so it looks like a done deal to me.

And Apollo 13 had the Howard BD snub so that's a different case altogether. The DGASAGPGA combo basically has never lost

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Wow... I mean I loved Birdman, so it's better than say American Sniper or Imitation Game doing this, but really? Over Boyhood? For shame guilds.

Over boyhood? definitely deserving. Strip away the OMFG 12 YEARS TO FILM gimmick it really isn't a spectacular film. It's good yes, but not BP worthy.

(And I'd just like to take a moment to gloat in the fact that I was right this year yet again. I said Boyhood could not possibly be the frontrunner and I was right. It never was really the frontrunner because Birdman picked up all the guilds.And y'all were like this bitch is crazy. )

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Very few arguments are more pointless and bullshit than "take away an essential part of why movie X is so good, and see how it's really not that good!"

That's not even my argument. I'm saying that people are getting caught up in the gimmick. If you show the film to a person unaware of the gimmick, it really isn't a great film.

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First of all it's not even a gimmick, second of all why does it matter what some abstract person with no knowledge of the context would think of the film, and also how do you know that's what they would think, and finally how much time has to pass before anyone watching the film becomes aware of what's going on and what Linklater's up to?

 

If you think the movie isn't great, just say why, don't hide behind this entirely pointless line of thinking. No one's getting "caught up" in Boyhood being shot over 12 years because Boyhood not only can't work, it probably can't exist at all without being shot over 12 years. It's the film's entire backbone, no shit it's not great when someone doesn't take that into consideration.

 

(Birdman, meanwhile, would work fine if shot/edited conventionally; if there's a gimmicky movie in this year's race, it's this one). 

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First of all it's not even a gimmick, second of all why does it matter what some abstract person with no knowledge of the context would think of the film, and also how do you know that's what they would think, and finally how much time has to pass before anyone watching the film becomes aware of what's going on and what Linklater's up to?

 

Cus I know people who didn't know and didn't realise? 

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