9 out of 12 months will have a film break its OW record 2015?

[DAJK]

I don't think that Avengers will easily top 207, not do I think it's a lock that it won't. It's gonna do somewhere between 185-215, so it may, and it may not...

[Neo]

I don't think that Avengers will easily top 207, not do I think it's a lock that it won't. It's gonna do somewhere between 185-215, so it may, and it may not...

Lets say 11500 screens, 170 seats per theater, $8 per ticket, OW (3-days), 7 showings per day = 328M, not saying it will get 328M, but saying max is 215M thats to low. Thats if it sells out 100%, but say theaters go 120 capacity that would be 231M.

Edited February 16, 2015 by Neo

[Ethan Hunt]

I have it at 202M as I have had for a while.

[DAJK]

Lets say 11500 screens, 170 seats per theater, $8 per ticket, OW (3-days), 7 showings per day = 328M, not saying it will get 328M, but saying max is 215M thats to low. Thats if it sells out 100%, but say theaters go 120 capacity that would be 231M.

I'm not saying that's the highest it can go, but I think 215 is a high number while still thinking conservatively, and not trying to throw out ballsy numbers (besides, I don't personally believe it will hit anything near 250).

[Neo]

I'm not saying that's the highest it can go, but I think 215 is a high number while still thinking conservatively, and not trying to throw out ballsy numbers (besides, I don't personally believe it will hit anything near 250).

Thought you did as 215 was your end range. As shown above 215M is the middle of where it can go and should be around 230M get. 12000 screens and it goes to 240M.

[Ethan Hunt]

Thought you did as 215 was your end range. As shown above 215M is the middle of where it can go and should be around 230M get. 12000 screens and it goes to 240M.

Let DAJK share his own beliefs with out criticizing him, please and thank you. He's just making a prediction .

[AndyLL]

Let DAJK share his own beliefs with out criticizing him, please and thank you. He's just making a prediction .

 

Will you shut up and quit backseat moderating.

 

People like you have made these forums miserable this weekend.

 

Neo's posting style is dry and abrupt but he isn't attacking anyone.

 

If you don't like him put him on ignore... quit following him around and critiquing every post of his.

 

Don't bother replying... I'm following my own advice.

[Ethan Hunt]

Will you shut up and quit backseat moderating.

People like you have made these forums miserable this weekend.

Neo's posting style is dry and abrupt but he isn't attacking anyone.

If you don't like him put him on ignore... quit following him around and critiquing every post of his.

Don't bother replying... I'm following my own advice.

Now you're going on ignore. ( most likely temporarily)

I would put Neo on ignore if I could.

Edited February 17, 2015 by Ethan Hunt

[Neo]

Let DAJK share his own beliefs with out criticizing him, please and thank you. He's just making a prediction .

Can make a prediction that is fine, but I was just saying some seem low. With the data I presented 215M seemed low as DAJK's high end that is all.

[AndyLL]

Can make a prediction that is fine, but I was just saying some seem low. With the data I presented 215M seemed low as DAJK's high end that is all.

 

I think you might be looking at the data too analytically.  No matter how many screens are available I do think there is an upper limit on how much a film can do in one week end... at some point people will decide it will be too crowded and wait for the 2nd weekend.

 

That said I have no idea at what point this will happen..  215M does seem to low and 230M seem supported by analytics however I'm thinking right now 220 might be the number.

 

If I start hearing excitement about the movie outside the internet ( is there such a thing ) by non-fanboys then I might change my mind

[Neo]

I think you might be looking at the data too analytically.  No matter how many screens are available I do think there is an upper limit on how much a film can do in one week end... at some point people will decide it will be too crowded and wait for the 2nd weekend.

 

That said I have no idea at what point this will happen..  215M does seem to low and 230M seem supported by analytics however I'm thinking right now 220 might be the number.

 

If I start hearing excitement about the movie outside the internet ( is there such a thing ) by non-fanboys then I might change my mind

I agree there is an upper limit of 330M but that would require 100% sellouts through the weekend. Screens matter but if you get 120 people per screen at 11500 screens then a 230M OW is possible I don't think that is analytically the 328M is. Good post.

[DAJK]

I think you might be looking at the data too analytically. No matter how many screens are available I do think there is an upper limit on how much a film can do in one week end... at some point people will decide it will be too crowded and wait for the 2nd weekend.

That said I have no idea at what point this will happen.. 215M does seem to low and 230M seem supported by analytics however I'm thinking right now 220 might be the number.

If I start hearing excitement about the movie outside the internet ( is there such a thing ) by non-fanboys then I might change my mind

That last statement is the truest thing I've heard in a long time

With something like MockingJay, Frozen, Gone Girl, GOTG, Fifty Shades and to an extent American Sniper (even in Canada), when something truly breaks out, it correlates with people outside of the (Forums) talking about it at school. People at my school have never heard of films like Dracula Untold, Mortdecai, Seventh Son. But Gone Girl had people talking. What you said about Avengers is so true. So far, the only thing I've heard outside the forums is people coming up to ask me "is it true they're making another Avengers movie?"

[Plain Old Tele]

Something to keep in mind is that as showtimes and screens increase, the percentage of sellouts (and filled seats) tends to decrease. (We see this all the time -- in a very extreme way -- with limited releases expanding their theater counts dramatically from one weekend to the next.) So while TA2 may end up with more screens and shows than TA, it probably won't have the same PTA. It'll need all those extra screens and times to make up for that (likely) decrease, just to match TA1's overall weekend.

[druv10]

Something to keep in mind is that as showtimes and screens increase, the percentage of sellouts (and filled seats) tends to decrease. (We see this all the time -- in a very extreme way -- with limited releases expanding their theater counts dramatically from one weekend to the next.) So while TA2 may end up with more screens and shows than TA, it probably won't have the same PTA. It'll need all those extra screens and times to make up for that (likely) decrease, just to match TA1's overall weekend.

 

Preview/Mid will be much higher than TA1's 18M+. I'm expecting 30-35M for TA2. 

[Plain Old Tele]

Preview/Mid will be much higher than TA1's 18M+. I'm expecting 30-35M for TA2.

Yes, of course. But the Friday day may not be as strong for exactly the same reason.

[BadAtGender]

TA's PTA was crazy off the charts. I doubt that can be replicated, especially with the falling 3D share. That's going to make it difficult for TA2 to match the OW.

 

TA was already a super saturated release. It was in over 4300 theaters. We can probably assume TA2 will get a slight bump at least, but much beyond 4400 is going to be difficult. Still, let's say that TA2 somehow gets the record and shows up in 4500.

 

In order to match TA's OW it would need an PTA north of $46,000. Every ten theaters you drop it below 4500 you need to increase the PTA by about $100. To match. If the PTA starts dropping, well... IM3 managed an amazing 40k per theater and still was over $30m less than TA.

 

So what do you think the PTA is going to be here? I've seen people say $230m. That requires a PTA above $51k. $3500 MORE than TA got. How does it get there? We've only seen an average ticket price increase of about 4% in the past three years. We've got 3D share falling, too. It's not getting all that premium boost.

 

Also, 7 showtimes a day per screen is super optimistic. I doubt most theaters are going to go around the clock (and that's 21hours of theater time right there.) 5 is probably more likely for most. In smaller towns, it's more likely to drop down to 3 or 4. Yes, even for Avengers.

 

Sure, it's possible Avengers 2 will get the record. But all that talk about screen availability basically means that it's going to be playing often enough that anyone who wants to see it will. It's not going to be completely full. More than likely, people will turn away not from lack of a seat but from lack of a parking space.

[Juby]

OUT (IMO only 5 out of 12)

 

JANUARY - American Sniper  $89,27 mln

FEBRUARY - Fifty Shades of Grey $85 mln

APRIL - Furious 7 >> $95 mln

MAY - Avengers: Age of Ultron > $207,44 mln

DECEMBER - Star Wars: The Force Awakens >>> $84,62 mln

 

I'm not sure about Mockingjay.

Edited February 17, 2015 by Juby

[SchumacherFTW]

I can certainly see April, June, Nov and Dec falling quite comfortably, but others I'm not so sure about. Like others have said, 207m is an exceptionally high bar for any film, even if it is a sequel to the Avengers. I really don't think it can beat it. March and August certainly aren't going down unless F4 suddenly goes supernova big in the last few weeks before release. September is a toss up as Maze Runner had good legs, but seems somewhat forgotten already, and October would need a surprise to beat Gravity. Still, that's an impressive number of records falling regardless.

[Jessie]

 

 

 

lol not difficult? Well no other film in history has done it.

 

Anyways out. 9 is asking way too much

Edited February 17, 2015 by jessie

[Neo]

Something to keep in mind is that as showtimes and screens increase, the percentage of sellouts (and filled seats) tends to decrease. (We see this all the time -- in a very extreme way -- with limited releases expanding their theater counts dramatically from one weekend to the next.) So while TA2 may end up with more screens and shows than TA, it probably won't have the same PTA. It'll need all those extra screens and times to make up for that (likely) decrease, just to match TA1's overall weekend.

Does that matter? If the screens increase and the numbers of seats are filled still the ticket price remains the same, 3-day OW and the # of showtimes is constant. Lets say with 10000 screens it would do 220M OW, then you increase to 11500 screens would the $ decrease? No. Means people that couldn't get to will no have a chance to see it, yes the sellouts might be less but the gross will be more.